Crystsl ball time- 5 years from now

[davell]

I know we've all came up with prospect lists, but we also know that not nearly all of these guys will pan out like we're hoping they will. Here are my predictions, with some surprises and some we completely expect. Everyone will have different ideas, which is what I want to see. A prospect list isn't based on what we really expect longterm, but where they are right now in lots of cases......

 

I'm going to go with a round number of 10 guys, as far as what I think will be on our major league roster come 2014. So here goes.......

 

Castro-SS Heading towards being elite, .300ish hitter, 10-15 homer power, with excellent defense. Not a great OBP, but on his way to being an ALL Star.

B Jackson- CF A fan favorite with 20-20 ability. Injured alot though, but solid 5-6 type hitter for us with a nice OBP.

Lee- 2B With Castro firmly entrenched at SS, 2B is the onlu spot left for Lee, with Jackson in CF. The 1-2 spots in our lineup are set for a very long time.

Flaherty- Util Takes over for Baker in this area, a poor man's DeRo. Very valuable to us though, as he hits for some pop and can play all over.

Gaub- LHP LOOGY all the way, has value to us, but is getting pricey at this point for us in his role.

Cashner- RHP Never makes it as a SP, settles in as a setup guy, hasn't gotten the chance to close yet, but we aren't comfortable in giving it to him anyway.

Coleman RHP- Winds up as our next version of Randy Wells. Just gets guys out, although we aren't sure how some of the time. Solid 4=5 guy who eats innings for us.

Rhee= The splitter comes back with a vengeance and he makes his way to the majors by mid-2012. We're looking at him as a very solid 3.

Rusin- Our next Sean Marshall, he just comes up as along guy and never gets a chance to start for us.

Parker- Just a middle innings guy, winds up as a poor man's Wuertz, but is a guy who sticks at least.

 

 

The guys we've dealt......

 

Vitters- We hold onto him a bit long, but he winds up as a starter in LF for a small market team. We could have gotten more at one point, but it's not as bad as the Pie deal by any stretch......We're seeing Franceour here at this point.

J Jackson- Deal him and some others at the deadline in 2011 for an ace. Winds up as a very solid 3-4 guy, who also is the best hitting pitcher in baseball at this point.

Raley- Moves quickly, kind of stalls in AA. We don't get great value for him, but he's nothing more than a 5th anyway, if we'd have kept him.

Barney- We get very little for him(middle inning reliever) and watch him go on to be a decent starter for a small market team.

Antigua- Pitches great for us, but we don't seem to value him all that highly, nor do the publications. Once he's dealt, he's our next Ricky Nolasco to look back on.....

Caridad- Bullpen arm who gets shuttled back and forth from Iowa a bunch in 2010. We get rid of him, ala Ascanio, no huge loss here.

Stevens- Same as Caridad.

Fuld- serves as our 5th OFer for 3 years. We dump him, instead of paying him in arbitration and he has one good Podsednik type year, before crashing back down.

Burke- Dealt in same trade as J Jackson, top 50 prospect at this point. Winds up as a decent starter in RF.

Castillo- Serves as our backup C for a few years, but we release him and upgrade with someone else. We don't miss him.

 

 

And the total flame outs, or at least guys who still haven't made it to the show.....

 

 

Carpenter- Stalls in AA, arm issues come back and he never makes a major league pitch.

Archer- Control issues, coupled with us moving him back and forth from the rotation to the pen keep him from ever making an impact.

Watkins- Lack of power catches up to him, begins to get overmatched in AA. OPSing .650ish or so once he gets there.

LeMahieu- Lack of power and lack of position catch up to him as well. Sort of falls off the radar quickly for us.

Dolis- Never harnesses everything for us. Kind of engima, since he has great stuff. Is eventually claimed by someone through rule V draft, but doesn't stick.

Searle- Attitude and weight issues catch up to him, but only after he teases us with a solid year in AA first.

Colvin- Constantly shuttled back and forth from Iowa, never beats out Fuld and goes away fairly soon.

Guyer= Power doesn't come back, without a huge drop in everything else. Is tried as a utility guy, but we have plenty of them.

Lake- 2 more 150 K 20 walk seasons and he's quickly a name from the past.

Huseby- Starts getting hit harder once he gets to AA, loses confidence, and that's kind of it for him.

Kirk- Sitting in AAA for us, we're thinking he could do a decent job in the pen possibly, but we have lots of these guys.....

Ridling- The name only gets him so far, as he never makes it out of Daytona.

Bristow- On the 40 man, along with Kirk. Except he's our new Mitch Atkins. Has been hit hard, but may get a shot at some point in the pen anyway.

Spencer- Doesn't hit well for us and we eventually release him. Gets picked up and has a solid year. Think Dopirak.

Tony Thomas- AAAA player all the way......

 

 

 

Anyway, here's my thoughts. Just thought it'd be fun to see what others are thinking longterm on some of these guys......

[chasinf5s]

I do not see Vitters going anywhere unless we get a huge name in return and or he is a bust

[TruffleShuffle]

if that is how things actually pan out then the cubs actually have the #1 farm system in baseball right now.

[davell]

if that is how things actually pan out then the cubs actually have the #1 farm system in baseball right now.

 

Yeah, I didn't turn out a bunch of busts. What got me thinking about this was actually Sickels look back at the top 50 hitters from 2005, where there were a ton of busts too. I guess it would obviously been easy to predict B Jackson starts showing a bigtime hole in his swing and doesn't make it to the majors. For some reason though, I see us hitting on him. Cashner being a setup guy could kind of be construed as a bust, I guess. I came close to having us trade Lee at some point too, since he very easily could be too big to play 2B.

[scarey]

I find the fact that you're very specific in your predictions a little weird (no offense). Also, I think Huseby could bust, but I don't think it will be due to the fact that he gets hit hard at any point except maybe the majors. This is how I see things just in terms of the big league roster. Keep in mind, this is strictly in terms of who is in the Cubs organization at this time. Similar to how BA does their projected lineups.

 

C- Soto

1B- Vitters

2B- Flaherty

SS- Castro

3B- Lee

LF- Soriano

CF- B. Jackson

RF- Burke

 

SP1- J. Jackson

SP2- Zambrano

SP3- Rhee

SP4- Carpenter

SP5- Antigua

 

Bench- Watkins

Bench- Barney

Bench- Guyer

Bench- R. White

Bench- Clevenger

 

LR- Coleman

MR- Cales

MR- Guzman

MR- Gaub

SU- Parker

SU- Huseby

CL- Cashner

 

Nothing too surprising other than maybe Lee at 3rd. If they don't end up trading him, I think they might move him over because of his arm despite the fact that they would be losing a lot of power from the hot corner, but I think Jackson in center and Flaherty at 2nd makes up for it. It would just be a shame to waste his range over there. I could see him getting traded in the long run though.

[jersey cubs fan]

Choi, Hill, Montanez, Kelton.

 

 

Seriously, that's an unrealisticly hopeful future. There's no way Jackson, Castro and Lee all stick as starters and 1, 2, 5 hitters. Because that would almost mean this team is 96-00 Yankee good.

[soonercub]

My Cubs All-prospect team.

 

1. Lee-CF-L

2. Castro-SS-R

3. Jackson-LF-L

4. Vitters-1B-R

5. Burke-RF-L

6. LeMahieu-2B-R

7. Flaherty-3B-L

8. Castillo/Chironos-C-R/L

 

Bench:

Barney-inf-R

Watkins-inf-L

Colvin-OF-L

Guyer-OF-R

 

Rotation:

Cashner-R

Jackson-R

Rhee-R

Coleman-R

Raley-L

 

Pen:

Cales-R

Guab-L

Huseby-R

Parker-R

Carpenter-R

Antigue-L

Dolis-R

 

If Cashner can't make it as a starter you can flip him with Carpenter or Antigue. Great top of the order speed and bat handling. Good R/L balance. Potential for some middle and bottom of the order pop.

[Sever82]

Choi, Hill, Montanez, Kelton.

 

 

Seriously, that's an unrealisticly hopeful future. There's no way Jackson, Castro and Lee all stick as starters and 1, 2, 5 hitters. Because that would almost mean this team is 96-00 Yankee good.

 

Really no way? really? I guess you have a crystal ball in your room i'm guessing. The guy is making a guess at what could happen. Its definitely a possibility, its all based on potential, it either pans out or it doesn't, so yes, it is a possibility.

[jersey cubs fan]

Choi, Hill, Montanez, Kelton.

 

 

Seriously, that's an unrealisticly hopeful future. There's no way Jackson, Castro and Lee all stick as starters and 1, 2, 5 hitters. Because that would almost mean this team is 96-00 Yankee good.

 

Really no way? really? I guess you have a crystal ball in your room i'm guessing. The guy is making a guess at what could happen. Its definitely a possibility, its all based on potential, it either pans out or it doesn't, so yes, it is a possibility.

 

Yeah, and it's an extremely unlikely overly enthusiastic guess that is very similar to ones many people have made before.

[davell]

Choi, Hill, Montanez, Kelton.

 

 

Seriously, that's an unrealisticly hopeful future. There's no way Jackson, Castro and Lee all stick as starters and 1, 2, 5 hitters. Because that would almost mean this team is 96-00 Yankee good.

 

Really no way? really? I guess you have a crystal ball in your room i'm guessing. The guy is making a guess at what could happen. Its definitely a possibility, its all based on potential, it either pans out or it doesn't, so yes, it is a possibility.

 

Yeah, and it's an extremely unlikely overly enthusiastic guess that is very similar to ones many people have made before.

 

 

I agree that I've been extrtemely enthusiastic in these predictions. I even agree that if this stuff comes anywhere close to fruition, we've got one of, if not THE, best minor league system in baseball right now.(and no, I don't believe that we do, probably in the top 10 though once some of these guys make it to higher levels)

 

At the very least though(and I think that this is much more realistic) I see Castro and B Jackson in our everyday lineup doing what I said they would do. Adding Lee is very ambitious. So was putting Rhee down as a mid rotation type starter. But, I do think that with our pitching prospects, SOMEONE can make it to that point within that time frame.

 

I do think that 10ish guys or so within the system right now WILL be on our major league roster 5 years from now though. I'm sure there will be some bench players and relievers making up a good bit of the 10, but I do see our system as very solid right now. So, if we can come out of it with 2-3 everyday players and 2 guys who are in our rotation as well, it's not going to shock me. I think that I'd go as far as to say I expect that.

[TruffleShuffle]

Really no way? really? I guess you have a crystal ball in your room i'm guessing. The guy is making a guess at what could happen. Its definitely a possibility, its all based on potential, it either pans out or it doesn't, so yes, it is a possibility.

 

it's almost certainly not. it's very, very, very rare for any minor league system to produce that many good players without many busts. let's take a look at the BA top 30 for the cubs in 2001:

 

1. corey patterson

2. juan cruz

3. hee seop choi

4. ben christensen

5. carlos zambrano

6. luis montanez

7. david kelton

8. bobby hill

9. john webb

10. nate frese

11. eric hinske

12. julio zuleta

13. aaron krawiec

14. wilton chavez

15. ryan gripp

16. michael wuertz

17. joey nation

18. scott chiasson

19. jeff goldbach

20. mike mallory

21. carlos urrutia

22. ryan jorgensen

23. steve smyth

24. ross gload

25. will ohman

26. chris gissell

27. matt bruback

28. jaisen randolph

29. jason smith

30. nic jackson

 

only one real star (zambrano) in that list and then a handful of guys who made some contribution, and a whole lot guys who flamed out well before getting close to the majors.

 

as for teams that did the best job of turning players in the top 30 into major league players who stuck for longer than a year or so, these were the best that year (along with where BA had those players ranked):

 

braves: wilson betemit (1), marcus giles (3), matt belisle (4), jason marquis (5), adam wainwright (7), wes helms (8), horacio ramirez (11), damian moss (19), kelly johnson (25)

 

white sox: jon rauch (1), joe crede (3), matt ginter (4), aaron rowand (8), josh fogg (9), gary majewski (11), rocky biddle (13), matt guerrier (16), miguel olivo (17), josh paul (20), gary glover (22)

 

indians: sabathia (1), danys baez (2), willy taveras (4), jake westbrook (7), brian tallet (14), david riske (15), jhonny peralta (19), ryan church (30)

 

rockies: juan uribe (2), aaron cook (4), jasno jennings (6), shawn chacon (8), matt holliday (10), garrett atkins (17), brad hawpe (18), josh bard (23), jody gerut (30)

 

marlins: josh beckett (1), miguel cabrera (3), adrian gonzalez (4), claudio vargas (6), blaine neal (7), pablo ozuna (9), denny bautista (14), josh wilson (17), jason grilli (20), nate bump (30)

 

twins: michael cuddyer (2), luis rivas (4), justin morneau (5), rob bowen (7), bobby kielty (8), juan rincon (13), grant balfour (15), kyle lohse (16), a.j. pierzynski (18), j.d. durbin (20), chad moeller (23), lew ford (24)

 

expos: brandon phillips (2), brad wilkerson (3), grady sizemore (6), brian schneider (13), cliff lee (21) - really just including them because they turned out three really good players and not much else

 

a's: ryan ludwick (3), freddie bynum (6), chad harville (7), eric byrnes (9), gerald laird (11), luis vizcaino (14), mark ellis (17), jon adkins (19), chad bradford (22), aaron harang (27)

 

phillies: jimmy rollins (1), brett myers (2), ryan madson (4), chase utley (5), brandon duckworth (9), marlon byrd (10), johnny estrada (19), carlos silva (20), jason michaels (24), taylor buchholz (26), nick punto (29)

 

devil rays: josh hamilton (1), carl crawford (3), aubrey huff (4), bobby seay (8), rocco baldelli (9), travis harper (10), toby hall (11), jason tyner (14), jorge cantu (19), seth mcclung (21), alex sanchez (24), joe kennedy (26)

 

blue jays: vernon wells (1), felipe lopez (2), cesar izturis (3), josh phelps (10), mark hendrickson (11), ryan freel (12), jayson werth (14), dewayne wise (15), brandon lyon (16), alex rios (17), chris woodward (19)

 

 

 

so it seems like 12 of 30 is about the highest number that these teams had contribute at any level to the major league team. as far as overall positive contributions, seems like the marlins, phillies and maybe twins did the best with the players in their system.

[jersey cubs fan]

I do think that 10ish guys or so within the system right now WILL be on our major league roster 5 years from now though.

 

You'd be lucky to have 10 of them in the majors, let alone all on the Cubs. If that happens some of those guys will be dealt by then. That's 10 pre free agency guys right there, likely an incredibly cost effective ballclub. The Cubs currently have what, 4-5 guys on their team now who were in the system 5 years ago? I'd like to think they have 2 position players that will be real contributors by then, and 2-3 more pitchers.

[davell]

I do think that 10ish guys or so within the system right now WILL be on our major league roster 5 years from now though.

 

You'd be lucky to have 10 of them in the majors, let alone all on the Cubs. If that happens some of those guys will be dealt by then. That's 10 pre free agency guys right there, likely an incredibly cost effective ballclub. The Cubs currently have what, 4-5 guys on their team now who were in the system 5 years ago? I'd like to think they have 2 position players that will be real contributors by then, and 2-3 more pitchers.

 

I guess what I didn't account for was that we'd probably have 10 system guys on our major league roster, but not ALL of them will literally be from what's CURRENTLY in the system. It'd be nice to think Soto and Marmol will still be around at that point, along with maybe one or two of Marshall/Guzman/Wells/Shark as well.

[davell]

By the way, it IS possible to have a bunch of low production guys from your farm all on the same team at least. The Red Sox have Youkilis, Pedroia, Papelbon, Lester, Ellsbury, and Buchholz. Obviously, some of them signed longterm contracts, but they have all been developed within a 5 year period basically.

 

I went on baseballcube to see how some of these guys were ranked, back in their prospect days and here's what I came up with......

 

Youkilis was never a top 100 guy, but was considered 3-4 in their system while coming up. He made it to the bigs in 2004. Pedroia was ranked 77th in 2006. Papelbon was ranked 37th in 2006, Lester was 22nd the same year. Ellsbury was 13th in 2008 and Buchholz was 4th the same year......So, while they weren't ALL in the system at the same time, they did all make it to the majors within a 5 year period at least.

[toonsterwu]

I'll make one prediction for the heck of it - Justin Bristow explodes in 2010, ending the year at AA, showing mid-90's heat and good secondary stuff. He gets a cup of tea late in 2011, is up and down in 2012, and earns a rotation spot in 2013. Entering 2015, he is our number 4 starter, with people believing that he may kick it up one more notch now that he has some experience.