I demand a logical explanation for this myth/delusion

[badnews]

I find it the single most frustrating "false hope" delusions among, not just we of the "battered fan" syndrome on this board, but Cubs fans everywhere.

 

"The playoffs are a crapshoot."

 

No Cubs-related statement aggrivates me more. During the Nationals' series, I read a lot of posts like "This lineup works," or "This team is finally playing better fundamental baseball" or "this team looks like it has something to prove."

 

Why not "This team is PLAYING AGAINST THE NATIONALS."

 

And then the Cubs got the crap kicked out of them by the Phillies. But it's okay because they beat up on Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck. And the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

So can someone tell me does "the playoffs are a crapshoot" mean that someone Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck are going to be starting every game against the Cubs in a playoff series vs. the Dodgers or Phillies? It's not like the team would have to face any #1 starters or anything, right? It's just a matter of whuppin' on Chris "Crapshoot" Bootcheck, not Cliff Lee or Clayton Kershaw. So I am wondering, do I have this all down right?

[GlassCow]

I find it the single most frustrating "false hope" delusions among, not just we of the "battered fan" syndrome on this board, but Cubs fans everywhere.

 

"The playoffs are a crapshoot."

 

No Cubs-related statement aggrivates me more. During the Nationals' series, I read a lot of posts like "This lineup works," or "This team is finally playing better fundamental baseball" or "this team looks like it has something to prove."

 

Why not "This team is PLAYING AGAINST THE NATIONALS."

 

And then the Cubs got the crap kicked out of them by the Phillies. But it's okay because they beat up on Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck. And the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

So can someone tell me does "the playoffs are a crapshoot" mean that someone Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck are going to be starting every game against the Cubs in a playoff series vs. the Dodgers or Phillies? It's not like the team would have to face any #1 starters or anything, right? It's just a matter of whuppin' on Chris "Crapshoot" Bootcheck, not Cliff Lee or Clayton Kershaw. So I am wondering, do I have this all down right?

 

badnews, I mean this in the kindest way possible. I've read this post seven times now, and still am not clear what the point of it is. If your intention is to say that as fans we are pleased when we beat the piss out of weak opponents and get owned by 'real teams', I think you're wrong. If your intention is to say that as fans we are pleased just sneaking into the postseason to get a taste of it, again I think you're wrong. So, without further ado, what exactly are you trying to say?

[manbearcub]

well we split a 4 game series with the dodgers so hopefully we can win the next game so we beat them in a pretend playoff series.

[Backtobanks]

I find it the single most frustrating "false hope" delusions among, not just we of the "battered fan" syndrome on this board, but Cubs fans everywhere.

 

"The playoffs are a crapshoot."

 

No Cubs-related statement aggrivates me more. During the Nationals' series, I read a lot of posts like "This lineup works," or "This team is finally playing better fundamental baseball" or "this team looks like it has something to prove."

 

Why not "This team is PLAYING AGAINST THE NATIONALS."

 

And then the Cubs got the crap kicked out of them by the Phillies. But it's okay because they beat up on Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck. And the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

So can someone tell me does "the playoffs are a crapshoot" mean that someone Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck are going to be starting every game against the Cubs in a playoff series vs. the Dodgers or Phillies? It's not like the team would have to face any #1 starters or anything, right? It's just a matter of whuppin' on Chris "Crapshoot" Bootcheck, not Cliff Lee or Clayton Kershaw. So I am wondering, do I have this all down right?

 

I guess what you're trying to say is that we won't get to face pitchers like Morton or Bootchek in the playoffs against a good team. You're right about that but it doesn't mean that you're right about "the playoffs being a crapshoot" is a myth. Look at how many times the wild card team won the WS. Look at how many times the playoff (or WS) MVP is some obscure role player rather than a star. Basically it's a case of a team (or 1-2 players) getting hot at the right time. As bad as Soriano has been, he's the kind of streaky hitter who could carry a team for a week or two. Obviously, the "better" team will be the favorite in the playoffs, but any team can slump (or get red-hot) for a week or two.

[wade]

I always think of the first round especially- a five game series does not always produce the best team.

[ManEatingTarp]

I'm a Cardinal fan, and I'll go ahead and say it. 2006. 83 wins. Won the World Series.

 

It's a crapshoot.

[RynoRules]

1. I believe its a statistically-backed fact that playoff series are a crapshoot b/c of the relatively small sample size; and

 

2. I have said this so many times I feel like some will be sick of it, but if you do the math you will see that a team will win 90 or more games when that plays .666 baseball against teams at around .500 or worse and then breaks even against teams that are better than .500 or better.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, hey, badnews didn't quit.

 

Again.

[imb]

i just rolled my eyes so hard i almost went blind

 

shut up, badnews

[USSoccer]

This is the kind of hard hitting analysis I've been waiting for.

[bcl412]

In all honesty if you don't understand that baseball is a crapshoot when it comes to any shorts series, playoffs or regular season, you haven't followed this sport for very long. In a 162 games season, even the crappy teams pull off a hot streak, and they do it against good teams sometimes too.

 

What's to stop a mediocre to slightly above mediocre team from hitting a hot streak and beat teams who are better than them for a 15, 16 game streach?

 

Any major league pitcher is capable of shutting down a team, especially one that is on a playoff team, if two or three pitchers get in a groove than a mediocre team turns into a pretty good one, at least for a short period of time.

 

On the flip side any great team is going to have a cold stretch and it's very easy for that to happen in a 3 or 4 game span considering it happens many times through out the season.

 

What turns this into a crapshoot is this; do these hot/cold streaks happen at the same time, which involves a fair share of randomness and luck, or not. The odds are they won't if the difference between a good team or bad team are high, but it's not like they are improbable odds because in ML baseball, the difference between the best and the worst isn't that much in a 2-3-4-5 game scenario.

 

PS I'm not proofreading this so I hope it makes sense and isn't just incoherent rambling.

[bcl412]

PS, there have also been some really mediocre teams to win/make it to the World Series and there have been some really, really good teams who didn't even make it.

 

Some mediocre teams are the 2006 Cards, 1987 Twins, the 1973 Mets, the 2003 Florida Marlins was pretty crapshoot-esque as well.

 

Also some of the really good teams to not even make it are the 2001 Mariners and the 2008 Cubs and a couple that come to mind but I know there are more than that.

[Z38Cubs]

I find it the single most frustrating "false hope" delusions among, not just we of the "battered fan" syndrome on this board, but Cubs fans everywhere.

 

"The playoffs are a crapshoot."

 

No Cubs-related statement aggrivates me more. During the Nationals' series, I read a lot of posts like "This lineup works," or "This team is finally playing better fundamental baseball" or "this team looks like it has something to prove."

 

Why not "This team is PLAYING AGAINST THE NATIONALS."

 

And then the Cubs got the crap kicked out of them by the Phillies. But it's okay because they beat up on Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck. And the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

So can someone tell me does "the playoffs are a crapshoot" mean that someone Charlie Morton and Chris Bootcheck are going to be starting every game against the Cubs in a playoff series vs. the Dodgers or Phillies? It's not like the team would have to face any #1 starters or anything, right? It's just a matter of whuppin' on Chris "Crapshoot" Bootcheck, not Cliff Lee or Clayton Kershaw. So I am wondering, do I have this all down right?

 

 

I don't think you know what Crapshoot means.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The 2008 Dodgers were 2-5 against the Cubs, with one of those wins against Sean "Bootcheck" Gallagher.

[soapy]

not to mention that there were plenty of people saying, "Well, it's the Nationals" during that series, as well as, "It's the Pirates" yesterday.

[Vanilla Ice]

I thought you left

[Keener98]

I thought you left

[treebird]

maybe someone should help him leave

 

HINT HINT

[imb]

ROAST do ur thing

[treebird]

ROAST do ur thing honey

 

ain't no other man

who b&

badnews like you

[Atta Boy]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090809&content_id=6331716&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

If they can get hot at the right time anyone can. The playoffs arent a roll of the dice by any means, but they are certainly about the team that puts it all together at the right time.

 

If you make the playoffs year after year, eventually your going to play your best baseball in October.

[RynoRules]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090809&content_id=6331716&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

If they can get hot at the right time anyone can. The playoffs arent a roll of the dice by any means, but they are certainly about the team that puts it all together at the right time.

 

If you make the playoffs year after year, eventually your going to play your best baseball in October.

 

Right - its luck or chance rather than a matter of statistical probability. In other words, its just as likely that you won't get hot. The 2003 Cubs got hot "at the right time" but the 2007 and 2008 versions didn't get as lucky.

[inari]

PS, there have also been some really mediocre teams to win/make it to the World Series and there have been some really, really good teams who didn't even make it.

 

Some mediocre teams are the 2006 Cards, 1987 Twins, the 1973 Mets, the 2003 Florida Marlins was pretty crapshoot-esque as well.

 

Also some of the really good teams to not even make it are the 2001 Mariners and the 2008 Cubs and a couple that come to mind but I know there are more than that.

 

That team had quite a bit of talent.

[Rob]

It's just a matter of who gets hot when.

 

Hell, if Soriano gets really hot, he can almost win us a 5 game series by himself...

[Ding Dong Johnson]

my head hurts