Re: Who is the most underrated player this year?

[Clem Fandango]

That 67% stolen base percentage is SEXY!

[laurens]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

 

UZR? Oh, I'm gonna leave this to Dextermorgan.

 

 

You do realize that UZR has some serious flaws, right?

oh yeah, care to elaborate?

 

The fact that, much like most other defensive stats, it's based on observation, that it doesn't factor in the fielder's arm strength and his ability to turn a DP.

1. it isn't based on observation

2. i don't think you understand what a fact is

3. it's a range metric, no [expletive] it doesn't factor throwing arm and DP ability

4. both of those are however, measured through different stats already factored into WAR

 

Then I must be mistaking it with another stat... sorry.

[UMFan83]

Out of curiosity, how is Ibanez doing defensively this year? I know he was a butcher out there in the past and a major detriment to his value.

[UK1679666180]

I want to see how UZR accounts for defensive positioning, which side of the plate the batter is hitting from (given the slice or hook of the ball), etc. before I put too much validity into it. It's great that it does factor PBP but it's just the start of where defensive metrics could be.

 

It's a stat that has value, I think some get carried away with as the defining defensive tool. Like a hitter that has 150 ABs and trying to determine whether or not they can hit ML pitching even with a respectable minor league career, I don't think you can accurately judge an OF based on limited chances they get throughout a season to accurately gauge whether or not they have plus range. It isn't helped by the wild swings in flucuation, I could understand a regression once a player gets past his prime (espec. CF/SS) but there's often nothing consistent about the stat from year to year. It's not reliable enough yet to put on the platform many put it on.

 

Also if I have an OF/IF that is shading based on pitch location and that pitcher missed that side of the plate completely & if that defender gets a late break b/c of that b/c his weight is shifted to where that pitch is supposed to be thrown, it'll hurt him and not really be his fault.

[rocket]

Dunn is no wizard in the outfield, but I can't imagine he costs a team 30-35 runs a year. That seems impossible.

[TruffleShuffle]

Dunn is no wizard in the outfield, but I can't imagine he costs a team 30-35 runs a year. That seems impossible.

 

ryan braun playing third base his rookie year cost the brewers something like 25 runs. that's playing a much more difficult position that sees more balls in play than corner OF, and playing it as atrociously as is humanly possible. braun only played about 2/3 of the season, so he probably cost the brewers about 35 runs over the course of a full season. i can't imagine that a LF/RF can cost his team that many runs unless he's literally never played outfield before and misses a lot of routine plays. dunn is a butcher, no doubt, but i think the true number of runs he costs his teams is something like 15-20.

[Guest]

They might be 50-44 instead 49-45 if that happened. If you want them to pay 10 mil for that...

 

I'm assuming that would mean Dunn instead of Bradley and considering how much time Bradley has missed (130 fewer PA's than Dunn), plus how much better Dunn has been hitting this year (.946 OPS vs. a .743 OPS), I'd be willing to be that Dunn has been worth more than maybe one win more than Bradley.

[17 Seconds]

that's the same formula that said willie harris was worth 15 million last season

[17 Seconds]

BTW the average stathead loves Adam Dunn and some actually think an awful national team was right for paying him 10 mil a year, but Nyjer Morgan has been worth almost 3 times as much as Dunn because Dunn is unbelievably retardedly bad on defense. The problem is most baseball statheads don't take into account the fact that a players defense has a lot to do with his value.

 

Adam Dunn on pace to be worth $7.1 mil , salary $8 mil

 

Nyjer Morgan on pace to be worth $22 mil, salary $411K

 

In conclusion Nyjer Morgan is massively underrated by the people who think they know more than the average person about baseball because they look at a player's OPS and nothing else, while Adam Dunn is massively overrated by those same people.

 

no, you just dont understand value very well

 

lol @ nyjer being worth 3 times as much as dunn this season and him being worth 22 million. hilarious

[17 Seconds]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

 

maybe it's because defensive metrics are a joke

[17 Seconds]

They might be 50-44 instead 49-45 if that happened. If you want them to pay 10 mil for that...

 

stop

[imb]

which one of nyjer morgan's 7 XBHs this season was your favorite and why

[manbearcub]

which one of nyjer morgan's 7 XBHs this season was your favorite and why

the grand slam he just hit.

 

 

 

oh wait that was adam dunn, sry mah bad

[17 Seconds]

which one of nyjer morgan's 7 XBHs this season was your favorite and why

the grand slam he just hit.

 

 

 

oh wait that was adam dunn, sry mah bad

 

he played a single intro a double the next inning though, so they took the 4 runs away

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BTW the average stathead loves Adam Dunn and some actually think an awful national team was right for paying him 10 mil a year, but Nyjer Morgan has been worth almost 3 times as much as Dunn because Dunn is unbelievably retardedly bad on defense. The problem is most baseball statheads don't take into account the fact that a players defense has a lot to do with his value.

 

Adam Dunn on pace to be worth $7.1 mil , salary $8 mil

 

Nyjer Morgan on pace to be worth $22 mil, salary $411K

 

In conclusion Nyjer Morgan is massively underrated by the people who think they know more than the average person about baseball because they look at a player's OPS and nothing else, while Adam Dunn is massively overrated by those same people.

 

no, you just dont understand value very well

 

lol @ nyjer being worth 3 times as much as dunn this season and him being worth 22 million. hilarious

 

I don't think you're understanding what's trying to be said with those dollar figures.

[artvandalay]

If I only cared about a player's defense I would be saying that Adam Dunn is the worst player in the history of baseball.

 

And runs created isn't runs added. It's not comparable to UZR. The offensive values on fangraphs can be compared with UZR. I like how you're completely overlooking fangraphs. Why don't you take them seriously?

 

UZR? Oh, I'm gonna leave this to Dextermorgan.

 

 

You do realize that UZR has some serious flaws, right?

oh yeah, care to elaborate?

 

The fact that, much like most other defensive stats, it's based on observation, that it doesn't factor in the fielder's arm strength and his ability to turn a DP.

 

Ah the ignorant bliss of totally misunderstanding statistics.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-gardner-worth-his-weight

 

UZR DOES in fact take into consideration a player's Arm strength and DP ability.

[javy knows my name]

which one of nyjer morgan's 7 XBHs this season was your favorite and why

hahahah served

[VladiRad]

What the hell? He's got 18 extra base hits this year. That's not very many but what a weird thing to lie about.

[imb]

WHAT THE HELL

[sneakypower]

ignoring dexter's raving lunacy for a moment, i had no clue Jason Kubel was having such a huge season.

 

.348/.418/.656 vs righties, .942 ops overall.

[Clem Fandango]

ignoring dexter's raving lunacy for a moment, i had no clue Jason Kubel was having such a huge season.

 

.348/.418/.656 vs righties, .942 ops overall.

 

But he's still not worth more than Nyjer Morgan

[imb]

I want to see how UZR accounts for defensive positioning, which side of the plate the batter is hitting from (given the slice or hook of the ball), etc. before I put too much validity into it. It's great that it does factor PBP but it's just the start of where defensive metrics could be.

 

It's a stat that has value, I think some get carried away with as the defining defensive tool. Like a hitter that has 150 ABs and trying to determine whether or not they can hit ML pitching even with a respectable minor league career, I don't think you can accurately judge an OF based on limited chances they get throughout a season to accurately gauge whether or not they have plus range. It isn't helped by the wild swings in flucuation, I could understand a regression once a player gets past his prime (espec. CF/SS) but there's often nothing consistent about the stat from year to year. It's not reliable enough yet to put on the platform many put it on.

 

Also if I have an OF/IF that is shading based on pitch location and that pitcher missed that side of the plate completely & if that defender gets a late break b/c of

that b/c his weight is shifted to where that pitch is supposed to be thrown, it'll hurt him and not really be his fault.

 

back to uk?

[UK1679666180]

I want to see how UZR accounts for defensive positioning, which side of the plate the batter is hitting from (given the slice or hook of the ball), etc. before I put too much validity into it. It's great that it does factor PBP but it's just the start of where defensive metrics could be.

 

It's a stat that has value, I think some get carried away with as the defining defensive tool. Like a hitter that has 150 ABs and trying to determine whether or not they can hit ML pitching even with a respectable minor league career, I don't think you can accurately judge an OF based on limited chances they get throughout a season to accurately gauge whether or not they have plus range. It isn't helped by the wild swings in flucuation, I could understand a regression once a player gets past his prime (espec. CF/SS) but there's often nothing consistent about the stat from year to year. It's not reliable enough yet to put on the platform many put it on.

 

Also if I have an OF/IF that is shading based on pitch location and that pitcher missed that side of the plate completely & if that defender gets a late break b/c of

that b/c his weight is shifted to where that pitch is supposed to be thrown, it'll hurt him and not really be his fault.

 

back to uk?

 

Yep. It just feels right.

[chopsx9]

Dunn is no wizard in the outfield, but I can't imagine he costs a team 30-35 runs a year. That seems impossible.

 

I can. I remember a game against the Cubs, 2 years ago I think, where he cost the Reds three our four runs. He turned the wrong way on a very catchable ball that ended up going for extra bases with runners on; there was another very catchable ball he just didn't get to and there were a couple of other plays - he had a rough day and I don't think he was charged with any errors. Now obviously I don't see all his games so maybe that was his worst game ever - I doubt it - but I don't have a hard time rationalizing him costing his team 35 runs a year.

[Derwood]

I want to see how UZR accounts for defensive positioning, which side of the plate the batter is hitting from (given the slice or hook of the ball), etc. before I put too much validity into it. It's great that it does factor PBP but it's just the start of where defensive metrics could be.

 

It's a stat that has value, I think some get carried away with as the defining defensive tool. Like a hitter that has 150 ABs and trying to determine whether or not they can hit ML pitching even with a respectable minor league career, I don't think you can accurately judge an OF based on limited chances they get throughout a season to accurately gauge whether or not they have plus range. It isn't helped by the wild swings in flucuation, I could understand a regression once a player gets past his prime (espec. CF/SS) but there's often nothing consistent about the stat from year to year. It's not reliable enough yet to put on the platform many put it on.

 

Also if I have an OF/IF that is shading based on pitch location and that pitcher missed that side of the plate completely & if that defender gets a late break b/c of

that b/c his weight is shifted to where that pitch is supposed to be thrown, it'll hurt him and not really be his fault.

 

back to uk?

 

Yep. It just feels right.

 

if by "feels right" you mean "it's no longer embarrassing to be a Kentucky fan".....

 

 

:wink: