Would You Make This Trade?

[Backtobanks]

Not an actual rumor, just a blog by Joel Sherman from the NY Post:

 

Here is a trade to think about. But before we go there, I will say I HAVE HEARD THIS NOWHERE. This is just me throwing something out for discussion on this site.

 

If you were both teams - the Mets and Cubs - would you trade Luis Castillo for Milton Bradley?

 

This has some kinship with whether the Jets should sign Plaxico Burress or not. Because Bradley has been a very talented player who cannot stay out of trouble.

 

This is not a fair trade talent wise; Bradley is much more talented. But the Cubs are paying him $5 million this year, $9 million next year and his $12 million 2011 option kicks in as long as Bradley avoids serious injury (which is no certainty with the health-troubled Bradley). But the likelihood is that the Cubs would save $9 million between 2010-11, which is not insignificant considering only the Yankees have more obligated in future pay than the Cubs, who also are in the midst of selling the team.

 

In addition, the Cubs have to see now that it was a mistake to believe Bradley could bring the lefty diversity their lineup craved while staying mostly out of trouble (He is hitting .196 as a lefty batter). Bradley, to date, has played poorly, had conflicts with umpires and manager Lou Piniella. He is a walking timebomb.

 

There is just too much risk with Bradley for me, if I ran the Mets. But they are desperate. Bradley is signed for the same period, the next 2 1-2 years as Castillo. If you believe he is not washed up at 31, then you believe he is much better than the .238/five-homer man he has been so far for the Cubs. He is a switch-hitter with power and patience at his best. If he is right, it might not be that far into the future that you would have three dynamic switch-hitters (Bradley, Beltran and Reyes) in the lineup.

 

Again, I think the risk is too great because Bradley simply does not know how to control his temper and stay out of disputes. But for a team as hungry for some impact hitting as the Mets, there is a tempting side to this.

 

If the deal was something like Castillo plus Feliciano for Bradley, would you do it? I certainly would consider it if we could tie that deal together with a prospects for Seth Smith deal with the Rockies.

[ManEatingTarp]

I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I would bet that the OF the Cubs have now is the same one you'll see for the next two seasons.

 

"If" they send out any of the three it's either bringing back an equal headache from another team, or a lot of cash is going with them. I don't see Hendry admitting that kind of mistake.

[A-Cal]

i don't know about that trade...

 

i do know that beltran might be done playing baseball

 

if i were hendry, i would be trying to unload bradley till the deadline

[otis89]

I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I would bet that the OF the Cubs have now is the same one you'll see for the next two seasons.

 

"If" they send out any of the three it's either bringing back an equal headache from another team, or a lot of cash is going with them. I don't see Hendry admitting that kind of mistake.

 

Hendry is incapable of admitting ANY kind of mistake.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Not a chance. Castillo is only good for OBP, which Bradley provides at a similar rate. At least Bradley has the potential to get some power back, while Castillo has no power at all.

[Banedon]

Well I like it from a Cubs perspective. If you want a prototypical leadoff guy, Castillo can be it, and it gets Fontenot/Miles off the field, along with giving Fox a spot to play everyday if you wanna try him in RF.

[Clem Fandango]

Well, first off I'm not sure the Mets would consider moving Feliciano since their bullpen was their biggest enemy last year and Feliciano is one of 2 Mets relievers with an ERA under 4 this year.

 

Aside from that, yeah I'd probably do it, but only near the trade deadline when we have a better idea of whether or not we'll be able to contend for the division/wild card. If it's not conceivable, then yeah I'd do it and then take the money saved and put it towards one of the OF FA's next year (Holliday? Figgins?) or let Fox play there assuming he's not a complete fluke and will be adequate enough out there as an offensive and defensive player and put the saved money toward pitching since Harden will likely be leaving.

 

Yeah, I'd do it, if certain circumstances were to fall in place.

[dew1679666265]

Cot's has Castillo signed through 2011 at $6 million each of the next two years. Bradley is at $9 million next year and $12 million in 2011.

 

So, we save $3 million next year and $6 million in 2011 in order to send off a potentially very good bat for a guy who will give us a .350-.370 OBP and that's it.

 

I don't like it much for the Cubs.

[Post Count Padder]

Castillo ain't getting any better. I don't really like it. Now, if we sent them Miles in addition, then maybe.

[Banedon]

Cot's has Castillo signed through 2011 at $6 million each of the next two years. Bradley is at $9 million next year and $12 million in 2011.

 

So, we save $3 million next year and $6 million in 2011 in order to send off a potentially very good bat for a guy who will give us a .350-.370 OBP and that's it.

 

I don't like it much for the Cubs.

 

You give up the possibly good bat (but so far, pretty bad bat) for the almost sure thing OBP. Castillo has been very consistent. Plus you open up a spot in RF for Jake Fox, where you hopefully get that power back that you lose from Bradley's potential.

 

If you wait till Aramis is back, I think this could be a nice money saving deal.

[apete6]

Castillo 2B

Theriot SS

Ram 3B

Lee 1B

Soriano LF

Hoff/Fox RF

Kosuke/Reed CF

Soto C

 

I like it better than the crap Bradley has been putting up, plus the money you would save. I know Castillo isn't exactly good in the field and has 0 power and declining speed, but I would think very hard about the trade.

[dew1679666265]

Cot's has Castillo signed through 2011 at $6 million each of the next two years. Bradley is at $9 million next year and $12 million in 2011.

 

So, we save $3 million next year and $6 million in 2011 in order to send off a potentially very good bat for a guy who will give us a .350-.370 OBP and that's it.

 

I don't like it much for the Cubs.

 

You give up the possibly good bat (but so far, pretty bad bat) for the almost sure thing OBP. Castillo has been very consistent. Plus you open up a spot in RF for Jake Fox, where you hopefully get that power back that you lose from Bradley's potential.

 

If you wait till Aramis is back, I think this could be a nice money saving deal.

 

You're not saving much money though. If Castillo were in the final year of his deal and we would have $9+ million each of the next two years to play with, I'd be for it.

 

But to save $3 million and $6 million the next two years is not worth trading away the potential that Bradley has for, at best, a .350-.370 OBP. Bradley's OBP is already back up to .352 and he's slugging 50 points better than Castillo this year. Castillo has a much better batting average and 20 points higher OBP, that's it.

 

Bradley is OPSing 28 points higher than Castillo right now.

[dew1679666265]

Castillo 2B

Theriot SS

Ram 3B

Lee 1B

Soriano LF

Hoff/Fox RF

Kosuke/Reed CF

Soto C

 

I like it better than the crap Bradley has been putting up, plus the money you would save. I know Castillo isn't exactly good in the field and has 0 power and declining speed, but I would think very hard about the trade.

 

Bradley has almost been better this year than Castillo. And he has room to improve further, unlike Castillo.

 

Bradley 2009 EqA: .257

Castillo 2009 EqA: .267

Edited June 30, 2009 by dew

[Banedon]

Cot's has Castillo signed through 2011 at $6 million each of the next two years. Bradley is at $9 million next year and $12 million in 2011.

 

So, we save $3 million next year and $6 million in 2011 in order to send off a potentially very good bat for a guy who will give us a .350-.370 OBP and that's it.

 

I don't like it much for the Cubs.

 

You give up the possibly good bat (but so far, pretty bad bat) for the almost sure thing OBP. Castillo has been very consistent. Plus you open up a spot in RF for Jake Fox, where you hopefully get that power back that you lose from Bradley's potential.

 

If you wait till Aramis is back, I think this could be a nice money saving deal.

 

You're not saving much money though. If Castillo were in the final year of his deal and we would have $9+ million each of the next two years to play with, I'd be for it.

 

But to save $3 million and $6 million the next two years is not worth trading away the potential that Bradley has for, at best, a .350-.370 OBP. Bradley's OBP is already back up to .352 and he's slugging 50 points better than Castillo this year. Castillo has a much better batting average and 20 points higher OBP, that's it.

 

Bradley is OPSing 28 points higher than Castillo right now.

 

You're comparing what is supposed to be a power hitting RF to a light hitting, leadoff-type 2B though. The comparisons you should be making should be Jake Fox/Hoffpauir to Bradley, and Castillo to Fontenot/Blanco/Miles. I suspect in both cases those are going to be upgrades over the current numbers at both 2B and RF. Granted, Bradley has played way below his ability up to now this year, but with his injuries factored in...this would be a risk I'd be willing to take.

[dew1679666265]

Cot's has Castillo signed through 2011 at $6 million each of the next two years. Bradley is at $9 million next year and $12 million in 2011.

 

So, we save $3 million next year and $6 million in 2011 in order to send off a potentially very good bat for a guy who will give us a .350-.370 OBP and that's it.

 

I don't like it much for the Cubs.

 

You give up the possibly good bat (but so far, pretty bad bat) for the almost sure thing OBP. Castillo has been very consistent. Plus you open up a spot in RF for Jake Fox, where you hopefully get that power back that you lose from Bradley's potential.

 

If you wait till Aramis is back, I think this could be a nice money saving deal.

 

You're not saving much money though. If Castillo were in the final year of his deal and we would have $9+ million each of the next two years to play with, I'd be for it.

 

But to save $3 million and $6 million the next two years is not worth trading away the potential that Bradley has for, at best, a .350-.370 OBP. Bradley's OBP is already back up to .352 and he's slugging 50 points better than Castillo this year. Castillo has a much better batting average and 20 points higher OBP, that's it.

 

Bradley is OPSing 28 points higher than Castillo right now.

 

You're comparing what is supposed to be a power hitting RF to a light hitting, leadoff-type 2B though. The comparisons you should be making should be Jake Fox/Hoffpauir to Bradley, and Castillo to Fontenot. I suspect in both cases those are going to be upgrades over the current numbers at both 2B and RF. Granted, Bradley has played way below his ability up to now this year, but with his injuries factored in...this would be a risk I'd be willing to take.

 

If we saved significant money, I'd agree. But we'll save enough money for an extra bullpen arm or moderate starter (maybe) the next two years.

 

Hoff has the same EqA as Bradley right now (.257) and Bradley has the track record to expect improvement. Hoff may or may not. Fox is at .307 right now, but that's in very limited ABs.

 

Castillo does have a much better EqA (.267) than Fontenot (.232), however.

 

If you make this trade you basically free up some cash the next two years to be certain you'll have average play instead of having the potential for good to very good output. If you're high enough on Hoff/Fox that you think they can be good starters (in a platoon) and don't think Bradley has a very good chance of improving at all, then the trade makes more sense. I tend to think Fontenot will close the gap on Castillo by the end of the year and Bradley will start slugging at some point.

[dew1679666265]

Just throwing it out there, Fontenot had a .304 EqA last year. Granted that was in a platoon, however.

 

Castillo's EqA last season was .261.

 

Take it for what you will.

 

Also:

 

Castillo 2008 EqA: .261

Aaron Miles 2008 EqA: .265

[Banedon]

Just throwing it out there, Fontenot had a .304 EqA last year. Granted that was in a platoon, however.

 

Castillo's EqA last season was .261.

 

Take it for what you will.

 

Also:

 

Castillo 2008 EqA: .261

Aaron Miles 2008 EqA: .265

 

If Miles was anywhere near that in 2009, I'd have a much different opinion about this. And clearly, as you mentioned, the platoon situation last year helped out Fontenot a ton.

[jersey cubs fan]

Doesn't Castillo kind of stink?

 

I'm fairly pissed about the Bradley situation, and regret more and more the easy way he will be able to get that 3rd year guaranteed. I might be talked into a give him away situation, but taking on a pretty crappy older middle infielder who has his own onerous contract doesn't seem like any sort of solution to the problem.

[dew1679666265]

Just throwing it out there, Fontenot had a .304 EqA last year. Granted that was in a platoon, however.

 

Castillo's EqA last season was .261.

 

Take it for what you will.

 

Also:

 

Castillo 2008 EqA: .261

Aaron Miles 2008 EqA: .265

 

If Miles was anywhere near that in 2009, I'd have a much different opinion about this. And clearly, as you mentioned, the platoon situation last year helped out Fontenot a ton.

 

The platoon helped Fontenot out a ton, true, but is he very likely to stick at .232? I would doubt it. I'd say he'll be similar to Castillo by the end of the year. Especially if, when Aramis returns, Lou moves Fontenot back to second and platoons him with someone (Scales or Blanco perhaps?).

 

And I wouldn't take 2008 Aaron Miles as my leadoff hitter.

[JonJayCutler]

I'm all for trading Bradley and getting rid of that contract, but Luis Castillo cannot do anymore at 2B than Fontenot can. However, if this frees up enough money for us to swing a trade for someone like Adam Dunn then I don't even think twice about it.

[dew1679666265]

Doesn't Castillo kind of stink?

 

I'm fairly pissed about the Bradley situation, and regret more and more the easy way he will be able to get that 3rd year guaranteed. I might be talked into a give him away situation, but taking on a pretty crappy older middle infielder who has his own onerous contract doesn't seem like any sort of solution to the problem.

 

Exactly. I'd probably be behind this trade if Castillo's salary were off the books after 09. If we still have to pay him through 2011, though, I'd much rather take my chances that Bradley can stay healthy and produce.

 

Especially since Fontenot and a platoon partner at second would likely be around as productive as Castillo - if not more.

[dew1679666265]

I'm all for trading Bradley and getting rid of that contract, but Luis Castillo cannot do anymore at 2B than Fontenot can. However, if this frees up enough money for us to swing a trade for someone like Adam Dunn then I don't even think twice about it.

 

It wouldn't begin to free up enough money for any kind of impact bat. We'd free up $3 million in 2010 and $6 million in 2011.

[Banedon]

The platoon helped Fontenot out a ton, true, but is he very likely to stick at .232? I would doubt it. I'd say he'll be similar to Castillo by the end of the year. Especially if, when Aramis returns, Lou moves Fontenot back to second and platoons him with someone (Scales or Blanco perhaps?).

 

And I wouldn't take 2008 Aaron Miles as my leadoff hitter.

 

I'm just not a big fan of a plan for the rest of the year where we wait for people just suddenly start playing better. I might be entertaining this idea more just because it involves getting rid of Bradley, who I've really grown to dislike.

[dew1679666265]

The platoon helped Fontenot out a ton, true, but is he very likely to stick at .232? I would doubt it. I'd say he'll be similar to Castillo by the end of the year. Especially if, when Aramis returns, Lou moves Fontenot back to second and platoons him with someone (Scales or Blanco perhaps?).

 

And I wouldn't take 2008 Aaron Miles as my leadoff hitter.

 

I'm just not a big fan of a plan for the rest of the year where we wait for people just suddenly start playing better. I might be entertaining this idea more just because it involves getting rid of Bradley, who I've really grown to dislike.

 

I haven't been the biggest Bradley fan myself - even since before we signed him. But, the answer to a disappointing couple of months is not to trade him for a 33 year old very average (at best) second baseman with a decent OBP and no power.

 

If the trade either brought back a player that could really help us this year or freed up a significant amount of money, I'd be fine with it. This just trades potential for the certainty of being average. You shouldn't downgrade the talent on a roster (unless you're rebuilding) simply because guys are underperforming.

[JonJayCutler]

I'm all for trading Bradley and getting rid of that contract, but Luis Castillo cannot do anymore at 2B than Fontenot can. However, if this frees up enough money for us to swing a trade for someone like Adam Dunn then I don't even think twice about it.

 

It wouldn't begin to free up enough money for any kind of impact bat. We'd free up $3 million in 2010 and $6 million in 2011.

 

Well in that case its probably not a good idea if we can't somehow acquire a replacement for RF. I could live with a Hoff/Fox platoon in RF if we got a good bat back somewhere else (2B). Luis Castillo is not an upgrade though. If only we had signed Ibanez :(