Re: 6/23 postgame... Gregg meatball #684

[Guest]

This loss is much easier to stomach when you accept that we're not winning anything with this bullpen and this offense. Oh well, it was nice of them to make us think they didn't suck for that weekend against Cleveland. Edited June 24, 2009 by 17 Seconds

[UMFan83]

I really enjoyed the way the game was played before that HR. If I was a fan of neither team I'd say this was a very nice game to watch.

 

The Cubs can't seem to win on the road. 13-20 now. Brewers are losing big, Cardinals are winning 1-0 late.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

I really enjoyed the way the game was played before that HR. If I was a fan of neither team I'd say this was a very nice game to watch.

 

The Cubs can't seem to win on the road. 13-20 now. Brewers are losing big, Cardinals are winning 1-0 late.

 

It was a good, crisp game.

 

Gregg is no better than Howry. His pattern is so predictable. He tries to pitch backwards with offspeed stuff in fastball counts and vice versa. The league knows it, and they hit it.

[Soul]

That's the 11th blown save by our bullpen and it's mid/late June?

 

I don't think we're going anywhere unless we figure out our bullpen problems, to say nothing of the sluggish offense which reared its ugly head again these past 2 days.

[Sammy Sofa]

That's the 11th blown save by our bullpen and it's mid/late June?

 

I don't think we're going anywhere unless we figure out our bullpen problems, to say nothing of the sluggish offense which reared its ugly head again these past 2 days.

 

What's the timeline of those blown saves?

[UMFan83]

I really enjoyed the way the game was played before that HR. If I was a fan of neither team I'd say this was a very nice game to watch.

 

The Cubs can't seem to win on the road. 13-20 now. Brewers are losing big, Cardinals are winning 1-0 late.

 

It was a good, crisp game.

 

Gregg is no better than Howry. His pattern is so predictable. He tries to pitch backwards with offspeed stuff in fastball counts and vice versa. The league knows it, and they hit it.

 

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

[dew1679666265]

Gregg is no better than Howry. His pattern is so predictable. He tries to pitch backwards with offspeed stuff in fastball counts and vice versa. The league knows it, and they hit it.

 

Howry was better from 2004-2007. Gregg has been better than him since then, though. Gregg was worlds better last year as well.

 

This year, Howry has been far better than he was last year, but is still a little worse than Gregg is right now.

[UMFan83]

BTW, Gregg did have 10 straight scoreless innings before this one. I guess he was due, if that makes anyone feel any better.

[dew1679666265]

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

 

He's not an elite closer, but he's not paid like one either.

 

He's a decent closer who will get the job done, but he'll make it tougher than you'd like sometimes. Inevitably, that type of closer will blow a few. He's better than a random middle relief pitcher, though.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Offense blew chances tonight too......again. Competency from that group would cover up some of our bullpen issues. Getting an "elite" closer is too pricey, as is getting an "elite" bat. Basically, we need the guys we have to pick it up or we're screwed. My point is, we have guys who can get the offense going, but we need them to start doing it now. I just don't see a meaningful trade helping us at this point given the ownership fiasco. I can somewhat handle a poor 2009, but I'm worried about the future when the core of this team is so relatively old (& in Sori's case, comes with an albatross contract). But yeah, Gregg is not trustworthy either.

[dew1679666265]

BTW, Gregg did have 10 straight scoreless innings before this one. I guess he was due, if that makes anyone feel any better.

 

Gregg has been pretty lights out for the past month (before tonight, obviously). I posted this in another thread, but here are his numbers the past 28 days:

 

1.32 ERA .951 WHIP 11K:4BB 13.2 IP

 

He's been really good since the middle of May.

Edited June 24, 2009 by dew

[UMFan83]

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

 

He's not an elite closer, but he's not paid like one either.

 

He's a decent closer who will get the job done, but he'll make it tougher than you'd like sometimes. Inevitably, that type of closer will blow a few. He's better than a random middle relief pitcher, though.

 

I guess. He doesn't really have closer stuff, he gets behind a lot of hitters and is good for a couple of meatballs in most appearances. Sounds like a middle reliever to me but I could be wrong. I'm going out on a limb here and could be wrong, but would much really be different this year if Aaron Heilman was our closer all year instead of Gregg?

[Soul]

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

 

He's not an elite closer, but he's not paid like one either.

 

He's a decent closer who will get the job done, but he'll make it tougher than you'd like sometimes. Inevitably, that type of closer will blow a few. He's better than a random middle relief pitcher, though.

 

I guess. He doesn't really have closer stuff, he gets behind a lot of hitters and is good for a couple of meatballs in most appearances. Sounds like a middle reliever to me but I could be wrong. I'm going out on a limb here and could be wrong, but would much really be different this year if Aaron Heilman was our closer all year instead of Gregg?

 

No difference, IMO. I think you're right. He's a middle reliever that someone in Florida decided should close long ago.

[SouthSideRyan]

That's the 11th blown save by our bullpen and it's mid/late June?

 

Take a wild guess how many blown saves the Cubs had on this date last year.

[dew1679666265]

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

 

He's not an elite closer, but he's not paid like one either.

 

He's a decent closer who will get the job done, but he'll make it tougher than you'd like sometimes. Inevitably, that type of closer will blow a few. He's better than a random middle relief pitcher, though.

 

I guess. He doesn't really have closer stuff, he gets behind a lot of hitters and is good for a couple of meatballs in most appearances. Sounds like a middle reliever to me but I could be wrong. I'm going out on a limb here and could be wrong, but would much really be different this year if Aaron Heilman was our closer all year instead of Gregg?

 

ERA+s of 122, 125 and 121 aren't random middle reliever numbers. Those were Gregg's last three season (2007-2009 so far). He had a 110 ERA+ the year before.

 

His biggest problem is walks. Outside of 2004 and 2006 he's never had better than a 2:1 K:BB ratio. He's also had some bad WHIPs in recent years. He'll fall behind guys and he'll walk some guys, but in his time as a closer he's saved 89% of games, 76% of games (hampered by injury that year) and 85% of games. He's generally successful, which is what is to be expected from a non-elite closer.

[CubColtPacer]

That's the 11th blown save by our bullpen and it's mid/late June?

 

I don't think we're going anywhere unless we figure out our bullpen problems, to say nothing of the sluggish offense which reared its ugly head again these past 2 days.

 

What's the timeline of those blown saves?

 

Piecing it together:

 

04/10-Gregg

04/16-Heilman

04/18-Marmol

04/30-Marmol

05/08-Heilman

05/16-Heilman

05/25-Cotts

06/02-Gregg

06/07-Heilman

06/20-Marmol

06-23-Gregg

 

The Cubs are 4-7 in games where there has been a blown save.

 

Good relievers or not, the Cubs are going to have several blown saves if they're asked to protect a 1 run lead most nights. They are playing way too many close games to not have a few trickle away from them.

[dew1679666265]

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

 

He's not an elite closer, but he's not paid like one either.

 

He's a decent closer who will get the job done, but he'll make it tougher than you'd like sometimes. Inevitably, that type of closer will blow a few. He's better than a random middle relief pitcher, though.

 

I guess. He doesn't really have closer stuff, he gets behind a lot of hitters and is good for a couple of meatballs in most appearances. Sounds like a middle reliever to me but I could be wrong. I'm going out on a limb here and could be wrong, but would much really be different this year if Aaron Heilman was our closer all year instead of Gregg?

 

No difference, IMO. I think you're right. He's a middle reliever that someone in Florida decided should close long ago.

 

If you're talking about the Heilman of 2005-2007, he's better than Gregg. Last year and this year, though, Heilman hasn't been close to as good.

 

So, Gregg is much better than the Heilman of the past couple years. But if you can get the Heilman of 05-07 back, he'd be probably our second best reliever.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Gregg has been very solid as of late. On the other hand, while Bradley, Lee, and Theiot have been doing well, and Soriano is showing signs of picking up, and the occasional hit by Fox and Hoff, the offense has been pretty useless. Betweem Fukudome, Soto, and Fontenot, these guys need to really pick it up, or Hendry needs to find someone who can.

[Soul]

That's the 11th blown save by our bullpen and it's mid/late June?

 

I don't think we're going anywhere unless we figure out our bullpen problems, to say nothing of the sluggish offense which reared its ugly head again these past 2 days.

 

What's the timeline of those blown saves?

 

Piecing it together:

 

04/10-Gregg

04/16-Heilman

04/18-Marmol

04/30-Marmol

05/08-Heilman

05/16-Heilman

05/25-Cotts

06/02-Gregg

06/07-Heilman

06/20-Marmol

06-23-Gregg

 

The Cubs are 4-7 in games where there has been a blown save.

 

Good relievers or not, the Cubs are going to have several blown saves if they're asked to protect a 1 run lead most nights. They are playing way too many close games to not have a few trickle away from them.

 

Don't have the O to make up for it this year.

[UMFan83]

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

 

He's not an elite closer, but he's not paid like one either.

 

He's a decent closer who will get the job done, but he'll make it tougher than you'd like sometimes. Inevitably, that type of closer will blow a few. He's better than a random middle relief pitcher, though.

 

I guess. He doesn't really have closer stuff, he gets behind a lot of hitters and is good for a couple of meatballs in most appearances. Sounds like a middle reliever to me but I could be wrong. I'm going out on a limb here and could be wrong, but would much really be different this year if Aaron Heilman was our closer all year instead of Gregg?

 

ERA+s of 122, 125 and 121 aren't random middle reliever numbers. Those were Gregg's last three season (2007-2009 so far). He had a 110 ERA+ the year before.

 

His biggest problem is walks. Outside of 2004 and 2006 he's never had better than a 2:1 K:BB ratio. He's also had some bad WHIPs in recent years. He'll fall behind guys and he'll walk some guys, but in his time as a closer he's saved 89% of games, 76% of games (hampered by injury that year) and 85% of games. He's generally successful, which is what is to be expected from a non-elite closer.

 

I don't think ERA+ is a good measure of a 1 inning reliever. The K:BB ratio and WHIP is more telling to me.

[CubColtPacer]

Exactly. When he comes through and saves a game, its as likely as your MRP pitching a scoreless 6th...you're probably getting a bit lucky because likely that pitcher is not skilled, the only difference is that with Gregg the game is on the line. Gregg is no closer, but like I said in the Game Thread, other than Guzman, I can't see anyone else to put there. Maybe Marmol but then you lose him in key late game situations so meh. Unfortunately we don't have better options, we're just not good enough in that department.

 

He's not an elite closer, but he's not paid like one either.

 

He's a decent closer who will get the job done, but he'll make it tougher than you'd like sometimes. Inevitably, that type of closer will blow a few. He's better than a random middle relief pitcher, though.

 

I guess. He doesn't really have closer stuff, he gets behind a lot of hitters and is good for a couple of meatballs in most appearances. Sounds like a middle reliever to me but I could be wrong. I'm going out on a limb here and could be wrong, but would much really be different this year if Aaron Heilman was our closer all year instead of Gregg?

 

ERA+s of 122, 125 and 121 aren't random middle reliever numbers. Those were Gregg's last three season (2007-2009 so far). He had a 110 ERA+ the year before.

 

His biggest problem is walks. Outside of 2004 and 2006 he's never had better than a 2:1 K:BB ratio. He's also had some bad WHIPs in recent years. He'll fall behind guys and he'll walk some guys, but in his time as a closer he's saved 89% of games, 76% of games (hampered by injury that year) and 85% of games. He's generally successful, which is what is to be expected from a non-elite closer.

 

I don't think ERA+ is a good measure of a 1 inning reliever. The K:BB ratio and WHIP is more telling to me.

 

Other relievers can't really be measured on ERA+, but for the closer it's a better measure. They usually don't inherit runners, and they usually don't leave the game in the middle of an inning. So ERA+ is as important for closers as it is for a starting pitcher (not even close to the only stat you want to look at for performance, but definitely important)

[Soul]

He's just a guy.

 

I don't know that anything on our current staff would be better, but I suspect it wouldn't be much worse either.

 

I'm expecting these games to be shut down. I'm not looking for a .500 ballclub. If Gregg is blowing these 1 run games, I don't care what the league average is. I'm expecting much, much better than that.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think ERA+ is a good measure of a 1 inning reliever. The K:BB ratio and WHIP is more telling to me.

 

You don't want to use any of those stats on their own, but using them together tells you that he'll generally allow walks and hits, but many times won't allow them to score. You certainly don't want him in Marmol's fireman role, but probably his best role is coming into a game with the bases empty so he has some wiggle room.

[dew1679666265]

He's just a guy.

 

I don't know that anything on our current staff would be better, but I suspect it wouldn't be much worse either.

 

I'm expecting these games to be shut down. I'm not looking for a .500 ballclub. If Gregg is blowing these 1 run games, I don't care what the league average is. I'm expecting much, much better than that.

 

If you expect much, much better than average, you better pay for much, much better than average. Gregg isn't being paid much, much better than average. If you want an elite closer anymore (which is much, much better than average), you have to be ready to pay $10+ million.

 

Gregg will blow some saves because he allows guys to get on base, but many more times than not he won't allow them to score.

 

Guzman, when healthy, would probably be better than Gregg, but like Marmol, Guzman would be better available to work out of jams instead of entering with nobody on base. That's the best time to bring Gregg into a game, conversely.

[UK1679666180]

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO.

 

Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.