2009 Cubs Picks Thread

[Guest]

Damn, $972,000 bonus.

 

Cubs most not have been financially able to pick Scheppers. :(

[craig]

If raley signs for less than a million, this could be a draft in which we don't pay anybody a million. (Who else would we even consider going that rich on?)

 

I wonder when the last time that happened? Back in the Larry Himes era? Or did maybe Todd Noel not quite make a million back in 96?

[UK1679666180]

7th rounder Springfield got only $80K. Wow, I'm surprised, that seems low for a HS kid to sign for. I wonder when the last time was that we signed a HS kid for less than 6 figures? It's seemed that anybody with even a hint of leverage would get 6 figures even if drafted in the teens or later (Acosta, Russell, McDaniel, Coleman, Tarlandus Mitchell, Nate Sampson, Canzler, Jericho Jones, etc..) If he's only an $80K guy, we probably shouldn't expect too much from him.

 

He was signable from the start, he projects as a utility guy as the main thing that hurts him is his lack of speed.

[Guest]

If raley signs for less than a million, this could be a draft in which we don't pay anybody a million. (Who else would we even consider going that rich on?)

 

I wonder when the last time that happened? Back in the Larry Himes era? Or did maybe Todd Noel not quite make a million back in 96?

 

Yes, Todd Noel was the last Cub first round pick to get a 6-figure bonus:

 

2009: (31) OF Brett Jackson, Cal - $972,000

2008: (19) RHP Andrew Cashner, TCU - $1.54 million

2007: (3) 3B Josh Vitters, Cypress HS (Anaheim, CA) - $3.2 million

2006: (13) OF Tyler Colvin, Clemson - $1.475 million

2005: (20) LHP Mark Pawelek, Springville HS (Springville, UT) - $1.75 million

2004 - no first rounder

2003: (6) OF Ryan Harvey, Dunedin HS (Dunedin, FL) - $2.4 million

2002: (21) RHP Bobby Brownlie, Rutgers - $2.5 million

2001: (2) RHP Mark Prior, USC - $4 million

2000: (3) SS Luis Montanez, Coral Park HS (Miami, FL) - $2.75 million

1999: (26) RHP Ben Christensen, Wichita St. - $1 million

1998: (3) OF Corey Patterson, Harrison HS (Kennesaw, GA) - $3.7 million

1997: (10) RHP John Garland, Kennedy HS (Los Angeles, CA) - $1.325 million

1996: (17) RHP Todd Noel, North Vermillion HS (Maurice, LA) - $900,000

1995: (4) RHP Kerry Wood, Grand Prarie HS (TX) - $1.265 million

[sporrer17]

 

 

7th rounder Springfield got only $80K. Wow, I'm surprised, that seems low for a HS kid to sign for. I wonder when the last time was that we signed a HS kid for less than 6 figures? It's seemed that anybody with even a hint of leverage would get 6 figures even if drafted in the teens or later (Acosta, Russell, McDaniel, Coleman, Tarlandus Mitchell, Nate Sampson, Canzler, Jericho Jones, etc..) If he's only an $80K guy, we probably shouldn't expect too much from him.

 

 

"The initial deal is worth $80,000, and it essentially replaces the scholarship to Illinois State that Springfield passed on to sign with the Cubs. It can be used for a college education should something like an injury cut short his baseball career. Springfield also said he's still negotiating his signing bonus."

 

Seems to me like the 80 K was more for his eventual education and not the whole signing bonus.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If raley signs for less than a million, this could be a draft in which we don't pay anybody a million. (Who else would we even consider going that rich on?)

 

I wonder when the last time that happened? Back in the Larry Himes era? Or did maybe Todd Noel not quite make a million back in 96?

 

Would a 6th rounder sign for more than a 1st rounder?

[Guest]

If raley signs for less than a million, this could be a draft in which we don't pay anybody a million. (Who else would we even consider going that rich on?)

 

I wonder when the last time that happened? Back in the Larry Himes era? Or did maybe Todd Noel not quite make a million back in 96?

 

Would a 6th rounder sign for more than a 1st rounder?

 

If he's an over-slot signing, it could happen.

 

Raley was generally valued around the 2nd round but he's a sophomore so he has added leverage.

[UK1679666180]

 

 

7th rounder Springfield got only $80K. Wow, I'm surprised, that seems low for a HS kid to sign for. I wonder when the last time was that we signed a HS kid for less than 6 figures? It's seemed that anybody with even a hint of leverage would get 6 figures even if drafted in the teens or later (Acosta, Russell, McDaniel, Coleman, Tarlandus Mitchell, Nate Sampson, Canzler, Jericho Jones, etc..) If he's only an $80K guy, we probably shouldn't expect too much from him.

 

 

"The initial deal is worth $80,000, and it essentially replaces the scholarship to Illinois State that Springfield passed on to sign with the Cubs. It can be used for a college education should something like an injury cut short his baseball career. Springfield also said he's still negotiating his signing bonus."

 

Seems to me like the 80 K was more for his eventual education and not the whole signing bonus.

 

ISU isn't a 20K a year school for an in-state student even at 100% scholarship, he probably got around 50%-60% from ISU.

 

I wouldn't expect the bonus to be much. I am confused on the wording in this article and believe they got it backwards that he signed for 80K and will negotiate how much money the Cubs will provide for school, which should be about 40K at the most.

[sporrer17]

ISU's close to 20K per year...I went there for a semester and it was over 8K, and that was a few years ago.

 

I highly doubt he signed for that little.

[Guest]

Slot for his pick would be around $115,000.

[UK1679666180]

ISU's close to 20K per year...I went there for a semester and it was over 8K, and that was a few years ago.

 

I highly doubt he signed for that little.

 

But he didn't get close to 100% & ISU has too many holes, new staff, & he's not worth 100% for them to allocate that much on one player.

 

No team (minus a JUCO player) would assume that he would get more by going to a diff. school than the one he committed to. He can't say, "well, I know I committed to ISU but if I don't make it, I want to go to NU, so I need 160K for 4 years of scholly money." It's based off of where he committed and what % as teams typically try to match amount for the 4 years and hold into an account, it's run by MLB.

 

If he 60% of 20K, he would get 12K per year * 4, which would give him 48K of scholarship money. 75% would be at 60K.

 

80K seems way too high for a scholarship for someone in Blair's shoes.

Edited June 24, 2009 by UK

[sporrer17]

I'm sure you have more knowledge of how these things work than I do, I'm just confused by the wording. It made it sound like he got 80K for his education (which isn't totally far fetched) and will still negotiate a signing bonus on top of that. It could be the other way around.

[Guest]

I'm sure you have more knowledge of how these things work than I do, I'm just confused by the wording. It made it sound like he got 80K for his education (which isn't totally far fetched) and will still negotiate a signing bonus on top of that. It could be the other way around.

 

Very few baseball players get a full ride.

[UK1679666180]

I'm thinking it's the other way around. MLB would void the deal if he signed before the bonus was agreed upon, Springfield then has the option of accepting the scholarship plan usually similar to the amount of scholarship before signing or a smaller cash bonus, in case he has no intention of ever going back to school, they give an additional bonus (not usually more than 2-5K).

[UK1679666180]

If the kid is good enough, it's actually easier to get MLB to pay 100% for school thru their scholarship plan than it is the actual school given the restrictions.

 

If I was a parent and my son had been drafted pretty high, my advice would be anything above 150K (after taxes, which is likely 250K w/out taxes taken out) and a full-ride afterwards, he should state he wants slot and sign the pro contract.

[craig]

If raley signs for less than a million, this could be a draft in which we don't pay anybody a million. (Who else would we even consider going that rich on?)

 

I wonder when the last time that happened? Back in the Larry Himes era? Or did maybe Todd Noel not quite make a million back in 96?

 

Yes, Todd Noel was the last Cub first round pick to get a 6-figure bonus:...

 

And even in 2004 when we didn't have a 1st, we still payed Grant Johnson well over a million.

[craig]

7th rounder Springfield got only $80K. Wow, I'm surprised, that seems low for a HS kid to sign for. I wonder when the last time was that we signed a HS kid for less than 6 figures? .....

 

He was signable from the start, he projects as a utility guy as the main thing that hurts him is his lack of speed.

 

These local news stories don't know much about the ins and outs, so it wouldn't surprise me if a writer didn't really understand how the value was between school and actual signing bonus. Maybe it's $80 in signing and $35 in scholarship to get up near slot, or whatever. Perhaps the kid doesn't get it himself. A major-leaguer wouldn't say he's signed when he hasn't signed and is negotiating his bonus, for example. But whatever.

 

Seems that Wilken talked about his hitting. Guys who can hit, with power, can get opportunities. Sounds like he'll need to hit, and if he doesn't, he won't have speed or defensive greatness to fall back on. But if he hits, anything can happen even if he's slow.

[UK1679666180]

There's no doubt that he can hit and has a decent arm, I don't know how much power he's going to end up with.

[craig]

A guy said Springfield had academic problems with college eligibility anyway, so may not have had much leverage.

[Iceblink]

DJ LeMahieu looked great in Omaha. He hit the ball all over the field and was solid at second. I think he's probably already outgrown SS. The only question is if he'll grow into a third baseman. If he can stay at second with a live bat, I'd be fine with that. Still a bit of a reach if that's what you get, but after BrownlieHarveyPawelek and all that, I wouldn't complain.

[craig]

A poster at BB said that Maneiri said Lemaheau won't be coming back, and the poster said he'd heard some talk that DJ had already agreed to terms, more or less. We'll see, but the coach wouldn't say that unless he was pretty sure the kid is going to sign, whether sooner or later. Good news.

 

Will be interesting to see how much he gets, whether he's another cheap signability guy, or whether he's actually a superslot.

 

What BA may think, it's possible that the Cubs just like him a lot more than the consensus, their views don't always go with the BA consensus by a long shot. Wouldn't be a shock if they see him as good enough to justify some superslot.

[UK1679666180]

A poster at BB said that Maneiri said Lemaheau won't be coming back, and the poster said he'd heard some talk that DJ had already agreed to terms, more or less. We'll see, but the coach wouldn't say that unless he was pretty sure the kid is going to sign, whether sooner or later. Good news.

 

Will be interesting to see how much he gets, whether he's another cheap signability guy, or whether he's actually a superslot.

 

What BA may think, it's possible that the Cubs just like him a lot more than the consensus, their views don't always go with the BA consensus by a long shot. Wouldn't be a shock if they see him as good enough to justify some superslot.

 

Most of the LSU picks have likely come to terms including Mitchell, just waiting for physicals early next week. As far as Springfield, he could still go the JUCO route and I'm sure with his drafting, he could've gone to any JUCO of his choice.

[StylesClash]

but after BrownlieHarveyPawelek and all that, I wouldn't complain.

 

I really hope the Cubs aren't taking a Conservative approach to early round drafting because of the string of busts they had from 2003 to 2005. As a big market franchise the Cubs should not be drafting players simply because they are safe bets to reach the majors. With a 100+ million dollar payroll we can afford to sign Second Basemen with quality upsides off the free agent market (thusly hurting DJ's value in my mind since he wont be a long term Shortstop option).

 

The boom or bust type players are still the ones I prefer to take early on. If they live up to their upside they can become franchise caliber players (the type who would be extremely expensive to sign their equivalent on the free agent market). That's much better than the fourth outfielder Brett Jackson seems likely to become (even if he's a solid bet to reach Chicago someday).

 

Also in retrospect of the three players you mentioned I have no problem with two of them. Brownlie would have more than likely been the top pick in the 2002 draft before shoulder injuries occurred. The Cubs simply bet that he'd be able to return to his pre-injury form of having a mid 90's fastball and hammer curveball. With the 21st overall pick that's a solid gamble to take. Mark Pawelek was another boom or bust type player. Everyone knew he was fairly raw, but getting a mid 90's fastball and quality breaking stuff from a left hander, in my mind, is another quality gamble to make (especially since it wasn't early in the first round). Honestly I wish the Cubs had given Pawelek another year or two to prove himself (especially considering our lack of quality left handed arms in the farm system).

 

I've never been a Ryan Harvey supporter though (even when he was originally selected and had a lot of backing from Cub fans). Sure he had 40+ home run potential, but where was the plate discipline? Considering we could never teach that element to Corey Patterson I was skeptical of whether Harvey could ever learn it. Plus it's great if you can hit a fastball 450 feet, but his ability to hit breaking stuff was questioned even back then (and still hasn't been remedied to this day).

 

Hopefully next draft, with a new owner fully in place, we'll have the budget to slot bust a little more with High School players (like we did in 2006).

[jersey cubs fan]

but after BrownlieHarveyPawelek and all that, I wouldn't complain.

 

I really hope the Cubs aren't taking a Conservative approach to early round drafting because of the string of busts they had from 2003 to 2005. As a big market franchise the Cubs should not be drafting players simply because they are safe bets to reach the majors.

 

It looks to me that this is exactly what they've been doing though, since Wilkin arrived. Lots of guys who can contribute something to the major league team but very few with any real shot at stardom. Maybe they figure they can buy/trade for any impact players they need, but want to fill out the roster with organizational (cheap) guys.

[Guest]

I don't know how you can't consider Brett Jackson a boom or bust pick. If he figures out his contact issues, he could be Jim Edmonds in his prime. If he can't figure out how to make better contact, he's not going to hack it at AA.

 

But yeah, Tanner Scheppers sure would look a whole lot nicer in the Cubs' system.