Question about Cubs assets.

[ManEatingTarp]

Hey folks,

We're getting closer to the time in the season where talk about trades and other types of player acquisitions really heats up.

 

What in your opinions do the Cubs have in the way of prospects or 25 man roster players that they can move. Also, with the ownership in flux, how much of a payroll increase do you see the Cubs being able to make with one or more of these moves?

 

Are there any "untouchables" in the farm system?

Who are the prospects that you see as bringing the most value in a trade?

 

Thanks

MET

[Old Style]

No one is untouchable on any level. Josh Vitters is the most valuable minor league commodity.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Id only move Josh Vitters if Peavy was involved. Jay Jackson or Andrew Cashner if we could get an impact bat like Holliday. Anyone else in the minors, Id be willing to part with. Problem is, we dont have much else of interest.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't think Hendry will move Vitters for anything.

[dew1679666265]

I don't know as much about the farm as many others on here, but here are my thoughts:

 

Great value

- Josh Vitters, A ball

- Sean Marshall, MLB

 

Good value

- Tyler Colvin, AA

- Wellington Castillo, AAA

- Jay Jackson, AA

- Jeff Stevens, AAA

- Jose Ascanio, MLB

 

Decent value

- Randy Wells, MLB

- Jake Fox, MLB

- Chris Archer, A

- Jon Gaub, AA

 

Possible throw ins

- Kevin Hart, AAA

- Mitch Atkins, AAA

 

There are others who I'm not sure how to categorize - guys like Steve Clevenger, Chris Carpenter, Tony Thomas, Andrew Cashner, etc - and others like Jeff Samardzija and David Patton who could have value (a lot in Shark's case) but cannot be traded.

 

I'm sure someone who knows the minors better will have a better understanding and would likely scoff at my list, but that's my rudimentary view.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I don't know as much about the farm as many others on here, but here are my thoughts:

 

Great value

- Josh Vitters, A ball

- Sean Marshall, MLB

 

Good value

- Tyler Colvin, AA

- Wellington Castillo, AAA

- Jay Jackson, AA

- Jeff Stevens, AAA

- Jose Ascanio, MLB

 

Decent value

- Randy Wells, MLB

- Jake Fox, MLB

- Chris Archer, A

- Jon Gaub, AA

 

Possible throw ins

- Kevin Hart, AAA

- Mitch Atkins, AAA

 

There are others who I'm not sure how to categorize - guys like Steve Clevenger, Chris Carpenter, Tony Thomas, Andrew Cashner, etc - and others like Jeff Samardzija and David Patton who could have value (a lot in Shark's case) but cannot be traded.

 

I'm sure someone who knows the minors better will have a better understanding and would likely scoff at my list, but that's my rudimentary view.

 

Kevin Hart is a few more solid starts away from decent value and I think Randy Wells could push his way into good value, as could Jake Fox to an AL team. Also Micah Hoffpauir should be considered at least decent value. Also, JR Mathes might also be in the thro in category. Greg Reinhard too.

 

I guess it all depends on what you mean by as far as Great-Good-Decent in return value. Heres my take:

 

Great

Jake Peavy

Matt Holliday

 

Good

Hank Blalock

Aubrey Huff

Freddy Sanchez

Jorge Cantu

Mark DeRosa

 

Decent

Garrett Atkins

Melvin Mora

Russ Branyan

Adrian Beltre

Ty Wiggington

Kevin Kouzmanoff(being generous)

Rich Aurilia(being really generous)

[Guest]

I don't know as much about the farm as many others on here, but here are my thoughts:

 

Great value

- Josh Vitters, A ball

- Sean Marshall, MLB

 

Good value

- Tyler Colvin, AA

- Wellington Castillo, AAA

- Jay Jackson, AA

- Jeff Stevens, AAA

- Jose Ascanio, MLB

 

Decent value

- Randy Wells, MLB

- Jake Fox, MLB

- Chris Archer, A

- Jon Gaub, AA

 

Possible throw ins

- Kevin Hart, AAA

- Mitch Atkins, AAA

 

There are others who I'm not sure how to categorize - guys like Steve Clevenger, Chris Carpenter, Tony Thomas, Andrew Cashner, etc - and others like Jeff Samardzija and David Patton who could have value (a lot in Shark's case) but cannot be traded.

 

I'm sure someone who knows the minors better will have a better understanding and would likely scoff at my list, but that's my rudimentary view.

I'm not much good either, but I'd say Colvin has very little trade value. He's done practically nothing and many were questing why the Cubs took him so high.

 

Shark can be traded he just has to agree. If the Cubs tell him he's going to be a middle relief pitcher in AAA for the next two years he will agree to be traded. They won't though.

[dew1679666265]

Kevin Hart is a few more solid starts away from decent value and I think Randy Wells could push his way into good value, as could Jake Fox to an AL team. Also Micah Hoffpauir should be considered at least decent value. Also, JR Mathes might also be in the thro in category. Greg Reinhard too.

 

I guess it all depends on what you mean by as far as Great-Good-Decent in return value. Heres my take:

 

Great

Jake Peavy

Matt Holliday

 

Good

Hank Blalock

Aubrey Huff

Freddy Sanchez

Jorge Cantu

Mark DeRosa

 

Decent

Garrett Atkins

Melvin Mora

Russ Branyan

Adrian Beltre

Ty Wiggington

Kevin Kouzmanoff(being generous)

Rich Aurilia(being really generous)

 

Yeah, I forgot about Hoff, but I don't think there will be any interest in trading him and despite his production I'm afraid teams will shy away from the fact that he's nearly 30.

 

As for the levels, there was really nothing scientific to them. I feel like Vitters and Marshall could be cornerstones to a deal for a guy like Peavy. Then the value goes down from there. I don't think Hart will move anywhere at this point unless he does very well in the majors (kind of like Wells has done) and Fox's value is hurt so much by the fact that he can only be a DH and nothing else. The "good" value guys could be add-ons to a major deal or key pieces of a smaller trade, while the decent value guys might add value to a major deal while being add-ons to a smaller (Branyan-esque) trade. The throw-ins are just that, throw-ins to make a trade work.

 

And I would swap Branyan into the "good" section of your breakdown and Sanchez into the "decent." Sanchez has never been all that good, while Branyan has pretty consistently put up .800+ OPS'.

[dew1679666265]

I'm not much good either, but I'd say Colvin has very little trade value. He's done practically nothing and many were questing why the Cubs took him so high.

 

Yeah, I was torn on Colvin. I think he has value, but I may be overestimating it. He's more of a potential guy that a team would take because of his upside moreso than basing it on production - if that makes any sense.

 

Shark can be traded he just has to agree. If the Cubs tell him he's going to be a middle relief pitcher in AAA for the next two years he will agree to be traded. They won't though.

 

I don't think he'll waive his NTC for any reason. He seems pretty adamant about wanting to play near home. I guess if the Cubs guaranteed to him that he'd never sniff the majors, he would accept a deal, but like you said, that's not going to happen.

[rawaction]

They look really good in the pinstriped pants.

 

Oh, it says ASSETS!

[Little Slide Rooter]

Colvin definitely seemed to be on the right track in '06 and '07. His '08 wasnt that great, but I could see him generating some interest. He wouldnt be a cornerstone, but he could definitely be a 2nd man in a deal.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think he'll waive his NTC for any reason. He seems pretty adamant about wanting to play near home. I guess if the Cubs guaranteed to him that he'd never sniff the majors, he would accept a deal, but like you said, that's not going to happen.

 

I don't get how people come to this conclusion. He said that when he was drafted and signed the big deal. But he made it quite clear this spring that his goal was to be pitching in the majors. And with the Cubs he's got very little chance to be pitching in the majors anytime soon.

 

Anyway, I would put Randy Wells value considerably higher than Jake Fox's. Randy Wells could be a decent starting pitcher. Fox can't play in the field. They've been trying to deal Fox for a while and apparantly can't. It would seem that Fox would be nothing more than a throw-in at this point.

 

Colvin has very little upside. I could see a team wanting to plug in a guy soon who might produce "safe" numbers having interest in him. Or maybe a team in need of OF depth. But I don't see any team trading for him with expectations or even hope of him becoming a really good corner OF or anything.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think he'll waive his NTC for any reason. He seems pretty adamant about wanting to play near home. I guess if the Cubs guaranteed to him that he'd never sniff the majors, he would accept a deal, but like you said, that's not going to happen.

 

I don't get how people come to this conclusion. He said that when he was drafted and signed the big deal. But he made it quite clear this spring that his goal was to be pitching in the majors. And with the Cubs he's got very little chance to be pitching in the majors anytime soon.

 

The last comments I saw from him indicated he would not waive the NTC under any circumstance. I can't find it right now, but I'm pretty sure he reiterated that this past offseason, but I'm not certain.

 

Anyway, I would put Randy Wells value considerably higher than Jake Fox's. Randy Wells could be a decent starting pitcher. Fox can't play in the field. They've been trying to deal Fox for a while and apparantly can't. It would seem that Fox would be nothing more than a throw-in at this point.

 

I could see that. My thinking was that Fox's bat gives him decent value to an AL team as a DH, but he's not better than a throw-in to an NL team. Wells has mainly moved up, in my opinion, because of a few good ML starts and I wasn't sure how high to move him.

 

Colvin has very little upside. I could see a team wanting to plug in a guy soon who might produce "safe" numbers having interest in him. Or maybe a team in need of OF depth. But I don't see any team trading for him with expectations or even hope of him becoming a really good corner OF or anything.

 

With some work I think he can turn into a good corner OF. Again, though, I'm higher on Colvin than a number of people on this board. I also could see him falling into the "decent" value range and not having a lot of value. It mainly depends on the team you're dealing with, I think.

[UMFan83]

I personally think that unless the sale gets done before mid-July the Cubs will have 0 financial assets to improve the team with.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think he'll waive his NTC for any reason. He seems pretty adamant about wanting to play near home. I guess if the Cubs guaranteed to him that he'd never sniff the majors, he would accept a deal, but like you said, that's not going to happen.

 

I don't get how people come to this conclusion. He said that when he was drafted and signed the big deal. But he made it quite clear this spring that his goal was to be pitching in the majors. And with the Cubs he's got very little chance to be pitching in the majors anytime soon.

 

The last comments I saw from him indicated he would not waive the NTC under any circumstance. I can't find it right now, but I'm pretty sure he reiterated that this past offseason, but I'm not certain.

 

But what is the value of such comments? First, they occured in the postseason, when he was preparing for and quite likely expecting to be a part of the Cubs rotation. Second, what else is he going to say? Yeah, I have a no-trade clause (a valuable bargaining chip for any player) but I'll waive it the first time they ask me.

 

Saying he's pretty adamant about playing near home suggests he regularly says he will not accept a trade to any other team. A realistic scenario has never really presented itself, especially not since he was moved off the major league roster and passed up for promotion by another guy. The day he rejects a trade that would place him on another team's major league roster instead of Iowa is the day I will believe he is adamant about playing near home.

[Outshined_One]

I'm going under the assumption that you're asking this regardless of whether the Cubs are buyers or sellers. Here's my rundown...

 

Valuable MLB Players

 

RHP Rich Harden - Need a potential ace who may or may not be healthy on any given day? Have we got a deal for you! He's a FA after this season and might be one of the top names on the trade market if the Cubs are sellers.

OF Reed Johnson - Great platoon option, decent defensively, and a FA after this season. Not a starter, but could be a great bat off the bench for a team looking to bolster its offense.

LHP Ted Lilly - He might be a bit harder to trade, but I think he'd be enormously valuable in this market. He's been a workhorse for the Cubs (going over 200 IP the past two seasons) and could be a #2 starter on a good team. He has one year left on his deal, but it's a very reasonable $12m.

LHP Sean Marshall - Seems like he's being wasted in the bullpen, but he could be a solid middle of the rotation starter for someone in need of pitching. The Cubs don't seem to enamored with him for whatever reason, so he could probably be had in a trade.

 

Other MLB Options

RHP Kevin Gregg - Iffy reliever, but some team will bite on him. He's a FA after this season and probably won't cost too much.

IF Aaron Miles - This is mostly blind hope on my part, but if the Cubs could unload him for a tire swing, I'd be happy to see it go down. One year left on his deal (guh).

RHP Randy Wells - I'm happy for the guy's success, but I think this is the most valuable he'll be in his career. He's not a centerpiece type of player, but he could make a decent throw-in for a pitching starved team.

IF Ryan Freel - Considering the Orioles are paying his salary, he could be had for cheap. That's not enticing, but whatever.

OF Milton Bradley - Don't think it'll happen since his 2011 option will have to be picked up, but an AL team in need of a DH could bite.

 

Valuable Minor League Players

3B Josh Vitters - The first name that will come up in almost any discussion. Top 25 prospect with legitimate power and great contact skills, but improvement needed in terms of taking walks and playing defense (I think both will come, but that's me).

RHP Jay Jackson - I think he signed at some point in Mid-June, so he'll have to be traded after then. He's doing well in AA (especially after an initial rough start) and has the potential to be a very good middle of the rotation type of guy.

SS Starlin Castro - Toolsy 19 year old SS holding his own in the Florida State League, but still needs a lot of polish.

RHP Andrew Cashner - Can't be traded until July. Could be a good starter, but most likely a high leverage situation reliever.

 

Other Minor League Players

Take your pick of the usual assortment of players in any minor league system. There are low ceiling/low floor guys (RHP Mitch Atkins, RHP Casey Coleman, IF Josh Harrison), streaky good ceiling guys (2B Tony Thomas, OF Kyler Burke, IF Ryan Flaherty), high risk/high reward guys (2B/SS Junior Lake, LHP Chris Archer, nearly everyone below Low A), etc.

 

I don't think Jeff Samardzija is tradeable given his contract and his No Trade Clause.

[jersey cubs fan]

LHP Ted Lilly - He might be a bit harder to trade, but I think he'd be enormously valuable in this market. He's been a workhorse for the Cubs (going over 200 IP the past two seasons) and could be a #2 starter on a good team. He has one year left on his deal, but it's a very reasonable $12m.

 

I assume you mean it would be difficult for the Cubs to accept dealing him rather than difficult to find somebody who might take him.

[Outshined_One]

LHP Ted Lilly - He might be a bit harder to trade, but I think he'd be enormously valuable in this market. He's been a workhorse for the Cubs (going over 200 IP the past two seasons) and could be a #2 starter on a good team. He has one year left on his deal, but it's a very reasonable $12m.

 

I assume you mean it would be difficult for the Cubs to accept dealing him rather than difficult to find somebody who might take him.

 

Yes. I think the Cubs see him as a centerpiece of the rotation and would be loathe to give him up in any deal since he'll likely be a very important part of fielding a competitive team in 2010.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think he'll waive his NTC for any reason. He seems pretty adamant about wanting to play near home. I guess if the Cubs guaranteed to him that he'd never sniff the majors, he would accept a deal, but like you said, that's not going to happen.

 

I don't get how people come to this conclusion. He said that when he was drafted and signed the big deal. But he made it quite clear this spring that his goal was to be pitching in the majors. And with the Cubs he's got very little chance to be pitching in the majors anytime soon.

 

The last comments I saw from him indicated he would not waive the NTC under any circumstance. I can't find it right now, but I'm pretty sure he reiterated that this past offseason, but I'm not certain.

 

But what is the value of such comments? First, they occured in the postseason, when he was preparing for and quite likely expecting to be a part of the Cubs rotation. Second, what else is he going to say? Yeah, I have a no-trade clause (a valuable bargaining chip for any player) but I'll waive it the first time they ask me.

 

Saying he's pretty adamant about playing near home suggests he regularly says he will not accept a trade to any other team. A realistic scenario has never really presented itself, especially not since he was moved off the major league roster and passed up for promotion by another guy. The day he rejects a trade that would place him on another team's major league roster instead of Iowa is the day I will believe he is adamant about playing near home.

 

I don't think there were any plans for him to be in the major league rotation this season. The plans are that he'll eventually be there, but I don't recall anything even implying it might be this year.

 

All the talk could be just a ruse, but the only way Hendry could convince Shark to leave football was to give him an NTC. He must plan to use it often if it's that important to him.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think there were any plans for him to be in the major league rotation this season. The plans are that he'll eventually be there, but I don't recall anything even implying it might be this year.

 

All the talk could be just a ruse, but the only way Hendry could convince Shark to leave football was to give him an NTC. He must plan to use it often if it's that important to him.

 

It was very clear he expected to win a starting role this year when the 5th job was open. And when it became clear he wasn't he was quoted as saying he just wants to make the major league team.

 

What do you mean "must plan to use it often"?

 

That wasn't the only way. It was part of an obscenely large contract. And it is now an asset he can use. He could stick with the Cubs until his contract expires and no longer have any sort of no-trade protection while still being under team control, but what's the point of that? Service time is also a valuable thing, and if he can get more major league service time by accepting a trade, that would be wise. I don't understand why a NTC always tells Cubs fans that a player only wants to play in Chicago and will never accept a trade. Guys waive their NTC. They like them because it provides them a bargaining chip and protection from going to an unsatisfactory location.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think there were any plans for him to be in the major league rotation this season. The plans are that he'll eventually be there, but I don't recall anything even implying it might be this year.

 

All the talk could be just a ruse, but the only way Hendry could convince Shark to leave football was to give him an NTC. He must plan to use it often if it's that important to him.

 

It was very clear he expected to win a starting role this year when the 5th job was open. And when it became clear he wasn't he was quoted as saying he just wants to make the major league team.

 

What do you mean "must plan to use it often"?

 

That wasn't the only way. It was part of an obscenely large contract. And it is now an asset he can use. He could stick with the Cubs until his contract expires and no longer have any sort of no-trade protection while still being under team control, but what's the point of that? Service time is also a valuable thing, and if he can get more major league service time by accepting a trade, that would be wise. I don't understand why a NTC always tells Cubs fans that a player only wants to play in Chicago and will never accept a trade. Guys waive their NTC. They like them because it provides them a bargaining chip and protection from going to an unsatisfactory location.

 

It's not just that he has it, it's that he would not turn down the NFL until the NTC was put into his contract. Normally, a no trade clause is an incentive for the player to take a bit less money (security over money, basically). That's not what it was for Shark, though. He simply wouldn't sign the contract unless he got the NTC.

 

The question then is, if he was so particular about the NTC being in the contract, he must not plan to go anywhere anytime soon. A player who asks specifically for a no trade clause and will not sign a contract without it normally plans to stay where he is. Couple that with Shark's comments about wanting to stay close to home and you have an extreme unlikeliness that he would waive the clause.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's not just that he has it, it's that he would not turn down the NFL until the NTC was put into his contract. Normally, a no trade clause is an incentive for the player to take a bit less money (security over money, basically). That's not what it was for Shark, though. He simply wouldn't sign the contract unless he got the NTC.

 

The question then is, if he was so particular about the NTC being in the contract, he must not plan to go anywhere anytime soon. A player who asks specifically for a no trade clause and will not sign a contract without it normally plans to stay where he is. Couple that with Shark's comments about wanting to stay close to home and you have an extreme unlikeliness that he would waive the clause.

 

What do you mean soon? He signed the deal 2 years ago. It expires in 2.5 years and yet he will still be Cubs property at that point, without the benefit of any sort of NTC. I don't know why people are pretending the NTC was the main thing. The main thing was the money. They paid him an absurd amount to stay away from football. Why are people pretending this guy would never consider playing for another organization? NTC are routinely waived. The Cubs were asking the guy to give up on his 2 sport hopes, and in exchange he took a lot of money and the right to deny a trade. He's been in the system 4 years now, but he's only got a couple months of major league service time. I cannot for the life of me believe he would turn down the option to pitch in a major league park just so he can "play close to home" even though Des Moines Iowa is nowwhere near Valparaiso.

[Little Slide Rooter]

It's not just that he has it, it's that he would not turn down the NFL until the NTC was put into his contract. Normally, a no trade clause is an incentive for the player to take a bit less money (security over money, basically). That's not what it was for Shark, though. He simply wouldn't sign the contract unless he got the NTC.

 

The question then is, if he was so particular about the NTC being in the contract, he must not plan to go anywhere anytime soon. A player who asks specifically for a no trade clause and will not sign a contract without it normally plans to stay where he is. Couple that with Shark's comments about wanting to stay close to home and you have an extreme unlikeliness that he would waive the clause.

 

What do you mean soon? He signed the deal 2 years ago. It expires in 2.5 years and yet he will still be Cubs property at that point, without the benefit of any sort of NTC. I don't know why people are pretending the NTC was the main thing. The main thing was the money. They paid him an absurd amount to stay away from football. Why are people pretending this guy would never consider playing for another organization? NTC are routinely waived. The Cubs were asking the guy to give up on his 2 sport hopes, and in exchange he took a lot of money and the right to deny a trade. He's been in the system 4 years now, but he's only got a couple months of major league service time. I cannot for the life of me believe he would turn down the option to pitch in a major league park just so he can "play close to home" even though Des Moines Iowa is nowwhere near Valparaiso.

 

I agree, especially considering Oakland and San Diego would be more ideal places for a young, inconsistant pitcher to start his major league career.

[dew1679666265]

What do you mean soon? He signed the deal 2 years ago. It expires in 2.5 years and yet he will still be Cubs property at that point, without the benefit of any sort of NTC. I don't know why people are pretending the NTC was the main thing. The main thing was the money. They paid him an absurd amount to stay away from football. Why are people pretending this guy would never consider playing for another organization? NTC are routinely waived. The Cubs were asking the guy to give up on his 2 sport hopes, and in exchange he took a lot of money and the right to deny a trade. He's been in the system 4 years now, but he's only got a couple months of major league service time. I cannot for the life of me believe he would turn down the option to pitch in a major league park just so he can "play close to home" even though Des Moines Iowa is nowwhere near Valparaiso.

 

The Cubs aren't based in Des Moines and he plans to be in the majors, thus Chicago is close to Valpo and he would be playing close to home.

 

I've heard comments from Samardzija that he wants to stay close to home in his major league career. From his comments, it has sounded like his desire to play close to home overrides all else. If he's lying about that or using it as a ruse for some reason, I have no idea. I can only work off the comments he gives. I have heard of no other comments indicating he would be willing to play somewhere not close to home, so I'm working under the assumption he originally gave.

 

If there is evidence to the contrary, please point me to it and I'll change my tune. Otherwise, I can only work with the information I have gathered from his comments and from people who have followed him more closely than I. That information leads me to believe he will not waive his NTC - or at least is extremely unwilling to waive it.

[ManEatingTarp]

Thanks folks.

Good info.

 

I see the Brewers as having the most flexibility for making a major move this season. Prospects + Payroll Flexibility = Impact Move.

The Cardinals have prospects and payroll flexibility, but don't seem to have the desire to part with the prospects yet. That and they know they have to back up the truck for Pujols in the next year or two and taking on a Peavy type contract would make that more difficult.

 

We're only at the 1/3 point of the season, but if I had to out money on it, I'd say the Brewers are the team to beat from here on out.