Will the Brewers go undefeated the rest of the way?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Of course, I'm somewhat joking. The other part of me hopes this serves as some odd jinx to get them to start losing by talking about them going undefeated.

 

But, I don't get it. I knew the offense would be good. But the overall pitching has been better than ANYONE thought. The 4-9 start was about what I thought, considering the starting pitching appeared medicore and the bullpen a mess.

 

We've all seen the Brewers go through tremendous hot streaks each season -- including one in the first few months -- but this one seems different. The offense has taken a jump much like ours did in 2008. The Brewers are making pitchers work and taking their walks.

 

But that pitching. I don't get it. At what point do we accept that the Crew's pitching actually is solid? And that this team might actually win the division?

 

For the record, I see the Brewers winning 117 games this season.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I dont know about that, but if their pitching holds up, they could easily run away with the division. We should still have little problem taking the wild crd though with our only real competiton being whoever doesnt take the East between the Mets and Phils.

[CubbieBum]

Thread title was bad enough but that last sentence tops it ten fold.

[17 Seconds]

but if their pitching holds up, they could easily run away with the division.

 

no they couldn't

[E.J.]

117 wins? Haha.

[adamb10]

117 wins? I hope that was sarcasm. The Brewers are streaky. Sure they're on a 7 game winning streak but they'll end up rendering that streak useless with a 5-6 game losing streak later in the season. I wouldnt get too worried, we're a real threat to win the divison yes but we're not exactly going to run away with it like the Cardinals have in the past.

[Clem Fandango]

117 is way off target. More like 138.

[TruffleShuffle]

let's review here: the brewers have some pretty good fielders (hardy, hall, cameron), some average ones (kendall, hart), a guy who has apparently improved a lot (weeks) and two lousy fielders (prince, braun). weeks is gone now, so they'll be replacing him with a guy who can't hit but is good defensively (counsell) or a guy who will probably hit well, but is atrocious in the field (gamel). yet they're ranked #2 in baseball with a .724 DER, which would be better than any major league team in history. Last year they were #7 win baseball with a .698 DER, with roughly the same team.

 

exhibit #2, let's wade through their results on balls in play. Throwing out the two guys with BABIP's over .500 because they've collectively pitched 2 1/3 innings, all but two members of their pitching staff have a BABIP below the league average of .299. Some are very far below it, like Hoffman, Bush and Gallardo. The only guy who would expect to have a very low BABIP is Stetter, as a LOOGY with a low LD%. Hoffman has a 20.7 LD% the past 7 years; this year it is 8.7%, which is not likely to be sustained given that he's an old dog and probably hasn't learned any new tricks.

 

Bush, Gallardo, McClung, Looper, Villanueva - all with anomalously low BABIPs that do not match up with their career track records and their batted balls this season. Suppan actually has only a 12.2 LD%, but that is far out of line with his normal 20% and will not be sustained. The two guys with higher BABIPs, Parra and Coffey, are actually right about in line with their career BABIP and projected BABIP by Zips.

 

Lastly, take a look at these team stats. As mentioned above, the Brewers have an extremely high DER. They also have one of the highest LOB% in baseball (74%). Their ERA of 3.89 way below their FIP of 4.51. Given that they have roughly the same position players as last season, and also have a number of pitchers with a wealth of evidence as to what type of pitcher they are, I can't conclude that the Brewers have become one of the best defensive teams in major league history, nor can I believe that their pitchers have collectively learned how to pitch very effectively to contact. Rather, it looks to me like they've simply been very lucky through the first month and a half of the season, and once that luck runs out, they'll regress to being a team that is average at run prevention.

[Schwarber Fan]

What I've seen of Hall, he doesn't look like a good defensive player to me.

[Coach C]

I wonder if the manager change made an impact on the Brewers team, now that Yost isn't managing them.....

[brewersbrewers]

I think the biggest thing to me is the new manger and coaches. I think i heard the Brewers are 2nd in walks which is a total turnaround for years past. Rickie Weeks will be missed but with Gamel up will help. The bullpen has been outstanding with Hoffmen, Coffey and Deflieise. I am excited but its a long season, I see it as a 3 team race.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Everyone expected the 2005 White Sox and 2008 Rays to fall off. It never happened. Obviously, that has no effect whatsoever on what the 2009 Brewers will or wont do, but they're good examples of teams that nobody expected to do much and they did. Say what you will about sabermetrics saying that the Cubs re statistically superior to the Brewers, but Im sure those same numbers would have the '08 Yankees and Red Sox much better than the Rays. 117 wins? Not so much. 95-100? Its quite possible. Im just glad theres a wild card that were the definite favorite for.

[dew1679666265]

Everyone expected the 2005 White Sox and 2008 Rays to fall off. It never happened. Obviously, that has no effect whatsoever on what the 2009 Brewers will or wont do, but they're good examples of teams that nobody expected to do much and they did. Say what you will about sabermetrics saying that the Cubs re statistically superior to the Brewers, but Im sure those same numbers would have the '08 Yankees and Red Sox much better than the Rays. 117 wins? Not so much. 95-100? Its quite possible. Im just glad theres a wild card that were the definite favorite for.

 

PECOTA had the Yankees with 97 wins, the Red Sox with 91 wins and the Rays with 89 wins. So 8 games behind New York and two behind Boston.

 

If the Brewers are going to win 95+ games, they'll have to win 70 of their final 123 games. They'll also have to have Dave Bush continue to put up a higher ERA+ (118) than he's had since he was 24 (and pitched 16 games). Hoffman will also have to stay healthy all year and Todd Coffey and Mark DiFelice will have to continue their unbelievably good seasons (career high 143 ERA+ for Coffey and perhaps greatest ERA+ ever of 311 for DiFelice).

 

I guess it's all possible, but very, very unlikely.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

My bad. The 117 wins was being sarcastic, but I think I'm supposed to put sarcastic stuff in blue font.

 

I'm a rookie. I'll get better.

 

The Brewers won't win 117 games. They will win 127.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Everyone expected the 2005 White Sox and 2008 Rays to fall off. It never happened. Obviously, that has no effect whatsoever on what the 2009 Brewers will or wont do, but they're good examples of teams that nobody expected to do much and they did. Say what you will about sabermetrics saying that the Cubs re statistically superior to the Brewers, but Im sure those same numbers would have the '08 Yankees and Red Sox much better than the Rays. 117 wins? Not so much. 95-100? Its quite possible. Im just glad theres a wild card that were the definite favorite for.

 

PECOTA had the Yankees with 97 wins, the Red Sox with 91 wins and the Rays with 89 wins. So 8 games behind New York and two behind Boston.

 

If the Brewers are going to win 95+ games, they'll have to win 70 of their final 123 games. They'll also have to have Dave Bush continue to put up a higher ERA+ (118) than he's had since he was 24 (and pitched 16 games). Hoffman will also have to stay healthy all year and Todd Coffey and Mark DiFelice will have to continue their unbelievably good seasons (career high 143 ERA+ for Coffey and perhaps greatest ERA+ ever of 311 for DiFelice).

 

I guess it's all possible, but very, very unlikely.

 

I could see Bush having a Ryan Dempster/Oliver Perez type of walk year and parlaying it into a 3-4 year deal before slipping back into mediocrity.

[dew1679666265]

Everyone expected the 2005 White Sox and 2008 Rays to fall off. It never happened. Obviously, that has no effect whatsoever on what the 2009 Brewers will or wont do, but they're good examples of teams that nobody expected to do much and they did. Say what you will about sabermetrics saying that the Cubs re statistically superior to the Brewers, but Im sure those same numbers would have the '08 Yankees and Red Sox much better than the Rays. 117 wins? Not so much. 95-100? Its quite possible. Im just glad theres a wild card that were the definite favorite for.

 

PECOTA had the Yankees with 97 wins, the Red Sox with 91 wins and the Rays with 89 wins. So 8 games behind New York and two behind Boston.

 

If the Brewers are going to win 95+ games, they'll have to win 70 of their final 123 games. They'll also have to have Dave Bush continue to put up a higher ERA+ (118) than he's had since he was 24 (and pitched 16 games). Hoffman will also have to stay healthy all year and Todd Coffey and Mark DiFelice will have to continue their unbelievably good seasons (career high 143 ERA+ for Coffey and perhaps greatest ERA+ ever of 311 for DiFelice).

 

I guess it's all possible, but very, very unlikely.

 

I could see Bush having a Ryan Dempster/Oliver Perez type of walk year and parlaying it into a 3-4 year deal before slipping back into mediocrity.

 

Possible, but not something you want to bank on.

 

The large likelihood remains that the Cubs are the definite favorites to win the division.

[johnbriggs12]

Here's a rundown of the Brewer staff.

 

Bush is no fluke. In 2006 and 2008 he posted outstanding WHIPS of 1.14. His bugaboo has been the HR. No reason he can't win 15 games.

 

Villanueva is no fluke either. In 2008 in 38 relief appearences he posted an ERA of 2.12. Then he retired all 11 he faced in the playoffs. He has one of the best changeups in the game. When he commands his fastball, he's very, very tough.

 

Suppan is what he's always been. His stuff isn't impressive but at the end of the year, he'll have 10-12 wins which is fine for a back end guy.

 

Gallardo has excellent stuff but his number one attribute has always been his poise for a young guy. The only unknown is how he'll do over a full season. If he performs like he's capable, he'll be in the Cy Young discussion.

 

Parra's stuff is well above average too. He still hasn't shown he's got the mental edge to be a big winner. If he gets that, look out.

 

Looper is Suppan with slightly better overall stuff. Another very serviceable starter.

 

Stetter's tough as they come on lefties. He does have bouts where he struggles with control.

 

Hoffman won't go through the year unscathed, but the guy still has it and is a huge upgrade over Saloman Torres/Eric Gagne duo of 2008.

 

DeFelice is the mystery man. We know he'll throw strikes. His K/BB ratio's are phenomenal in the minors.

 

McClung provides a power bullpen arm that can be erratic. Coffey has mid 90's sinking fastball and could just be coming into his own.

 

Julio is strictly roster filler at this point.

[jersey cubs fan]

I like that he's only somewhat joking.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I like that he's only somewhat joking.

 

I remember back when my wife was only a little bit pregnant.

[wade]

This seems like the place for me to bring up Tim Kurkjeaianean on ESPN the other day saying "NO ONE saw the Brewer pitching staff doing well this year." Then I remembered PECOTA having most of them with decent projections and thought, well, there was somewhere where one could find decent projections for the Brewer staff.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's like 2007, only the Cubs are actually good.

[brewersbrewers]

There are a few diffrences from 2007, the biggest one is that Yost is not the manager, the players are older, Mike Cameron in the outfield, no Johnny Eastrada.

[JenksFan5]

The biggest difference in the Brewers team this year is that they have suddenly learned to work the count and take walks. It reminds me of the Cubs lineup last year where there was a significant improvement in OBP and P/PA seemingly across the board. I don't know if it is Macha/Randolph/Sveum that are making the difference or if the young Brewers lineup are simply maturing as hitters. I believe they are second in the NL in walks (180) and 4th in the NL in OBP (.351, 25 points higher than 2008) while still remaining 3rd in slugging (.431, which is identical to last year to this point). I am not sure if this trend will continue, but the season is almost a quarter of the way through so it is getting to be a larger sample size.

 

The Brewers pitching has been very good as well. I would think that the pitching has a better chance of regressing to the mean more than the hitting, but that is just my gut feeling. The Brewers are not top heavy with two studs at the top of the rotation, but every guy is at least a serviceable starter and Gallardo definitely has the makeup to be a great pitcher. Dave Bush has always been underrated and underappreciated. His WHIP has always been very good, he just had trouble avoiding the big inning with long balls being his biggest problem in the past and to a certain extent this year, but most have been solo shots against him.

 

Another thing that the Brewers team has going for them is team chemistry. You can't measure its effect and put a number on it, but the team has 25 guys that are on the same page. Every Brewers player that is interviewed comments on that for the most part. I realize it is easy to have fun and team unity when you are winning and every team goes through their in-house scuffles, but the Brewers have that team chemistry factor that is often overlooked, simply because you cannot measure its impact on the team.

 

Obviously, the Brewers are not going to keep winning at over an .800 pace as they have in their past 26 games, but I think the Brewers are a better team than everyone thought coming into the season. I still feel that the Cubs, when healthy, are the best team in the Central, but they are starting to get a bit old and the window is getting smaller for them to win in my opinion. I am not concerned about St. Louis even when they are at full strength. I think the Reds are more of a threat than the Cardinals, but I could be proven wrong there as well. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[hotshot13422]

you heard it here first, I GUARANTEE a brewer loss tonight!

[fromthestretch]

Parra's stuff is well above average too. He still hasn't shown he's got the mental edge to be a big winner. If he gets that, look out.

 

Mental edge or not, the guy needs to develop better command of his pitches. He's walking over five hitters per nine innings this year (4.3 BB/9 IP for his career).