Jason Stark and Buster Olney on Derrek Lee

[Banedon]

Nothing really new here, but Jason Stark going through saying whether early season trends are reality vs illusion:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=4082916

 

Derrek Lee (.217 AVG., 283 OBP, .348 slugging percentage) -- REALITY: We had a couple of "illusion" votes on Lee, but they didn't carry anywhere near the conviction of the people who think this man is fading. "This is a tough one, but Derrek Lee might really be slowing down," one front-office man said. "He's only 33 years old, but his power completely dropped off in the second half last year, as did his other numbers." Another variation of the same theme: "He really hasn't been the same guy since getting hurt [a broken wrist in 2006]."

 

Then from Buster Olney's chat:

 

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=26078

 

Mike (Chicago): How long before Lee is dropped in the Cubs line-up? He was a double-play machine last year, can't catch up to a fastball, and is no longer a 3 hitter.

 

Buster Olney: Mike: heard from a lot of scouts about Derrek Lee's lack of pop. The one thing you know about Lou Piniella is this -- when it comes to winning and losing, he will not play favorites. And if, at some point, he decides that Lee's regression is long-term, he'll drop him in the lineup. I wonder, too, if he'll start to lose at-bats to Hoffpauir. I'm telling you something you already know, but his slugging has dropped from .662 in 2005 to .513 in 2007 to .462 last year to .348 in the first 11 games of this season...

[Soul]

It seems to me that Lou is already kidding himself keeping Lee in the 3 spot. I'm confused why he hasn't already moved him. Is he afraid of hurting Lee's pride? Derrek doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who can't take it. I think he'd be OK with it.

[jersey cubs fan]

It seems to me that Lou is already kidding himself keeping Lee in the 3 spot. I'm confused why he hasn't already moved him. Is he afraid of hurting Lee's pride? Derrek doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who can't take it. I think he'd be OK with it.

 

Well, it's mid-april, the Cubs are in first place, and some other big bats, Bradley/Soto, have yet to show anything either. I think he needs to see more prolonged decline by Lee as well as the team struggling, before he will make a move.

[Mephistopheles]

Roy Oswalt (0-2, 4.26, only 10 K in 19 IP) -- REALITY: After two messy starts, Oswalt threw six shutout innings against the Reds on Friday. But the baseball community no longer talks about him with anywhere near the reverence it used to. "He's definitely now more heart that stuff," one NL executive said. "I love him, but I think the arrow is pointing down. He used to have an overpowering fastball. Now it's not there. His curve is still a good pitch. But it's not a power strikeout pitch. He still has good enough stuff, but he lacks that put-away stuff he used to have."

 

Man ESPN. If you're going to talk to an "executive" (if in fact you did), you had better make sure you talk to one who gets his facts correct. Roy Oswalt's throwing hard than he has since 2004. There's a 10% chance his K rate is as low as it is by chance.

[E.J.]

It seems to me that Lou is already kidding himself keeping Lee in the 3 spot. I'm confused why he hasn't already moved him. Is he afraid of hurting Lee's pride? Derrek doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who can't take it. I think he'd be OK with it.

 

Well, it's mid-april, the Cubs are in first place, and some other big bats, Bradley/Soto, have yet to show anything either. I think he needs to see more prolonged decline by Lee as well as the team struggling, before he will make a move.

 

I think you can go back to the 2nd half of last year to see DLee has started a prolonged decline. Soto and Bradley are different situations because they both had solid seasons last year. DLee started off hot last year, but started to decline from about June on.

[rawaction]

It seems to me that Lou is already kidding himself keeping Lee in the 3 spot. I'm confused why he hasn't already moved him. Is he afraid of hurting Lee's pride? Derrek doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who can't take it. I think he'd be OK with it.

 

Well, it's mid-april, the Cubs are in first place, and some other big bats, Bradley/Soto, have yet to show anything either. I think he needs to see more prolonged decline by Lee as well as the team struggling, before he will make a move.

 

I think you can go back to the 2nd half of last year to see DLee has started a prolonged decline. Soto and Bradley are different situations because they both had solid seasons last year. DLee started off hot last year, but started to decline from about June on.

 

Still, there's no reason to move him down when the 2 most likely guys to move up (Bradley and Soto) are actually hitting the ball worse than Lee right now. I really don't want to see Theriot moved to 2 with Fukudome 3rd.

[Tyrant]

There's a 10% chance his K rate is as low as it is by chance.

 

Those seem like small odds.

[jersey cubs fan]

It seems to me that Lou is already kidding himself keeping Lee in the 3 spot. I'm confused why he hasn't already moved him. Is he afraid of hurting Lee's pride? Derrek doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who can't take it. I think he'd be OK with it.

 

Well, it's mid-april, the Cubs are in first place, and some other big bats, Bradley/Soto, have yet to show anything either. I think he needs to see more prolonged decline by Lee as well as the team struggling, before he will make a move.

 

I think you can go back to the 2nd half of last year to see DLee has started a prolonged decline. Soto and Bradley are different situations because they both had solid seasons last year. DLee started off hot last year, but started to decline from about June on.

 

Oh no doubt, we're going on about 6 months of weak performance by Lee. But my point is I don't think Lou will feel the need to move him with the team winning and the potential leap froggers not hitting the ball either.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

He's clearly not the same D. Lee as we saw three years ago, but it's too soon to pull the trigger on a lineup change. On the homestand, Lee is 8-21, 1 HR, 2 doubles, 5 RBI, and 3 walks. Besides, Soto and Bradley, who could hit third, aren't really lighting it up.

[Mephistopheles]

KOSUKE! I'd move Derrek Lee up to the two hole. I'd drop Kosuke to the three hole and swap Ramirez and Bradley.

 

1. Soryano

2. Lee

3. KF

4. Errormiss

5. Bradley

6. Soto

7. Fontenut

8. Cajun Diarrhea

[Bixby]

KOSUKE! I'd move Derrek Lee up to the two hole. I'd drop Kosuke to the three hole and swap Ramirez and Bradley.

 

1. Soryano

2. Lee

3. KF

4. Errormiss

5. Bradley

6. Soto

7. Fontenut

8. Cajun Diarrhea

 

Kusoke third? C'mon man even if he has had a good first 10 games of the season I don't think that warrants a permanent spot in the 3 hole. Especially when you have Aramis and Bradley in the lineup.

[Mephistopheles]

Aramis isn't that good of a hitter. He's good, outstanding, but under no definition is he excellent. Neither is Kosuke Fukudome. Only one of them has the capability of producing .310+.

[Cubswin11]

When you think about it we really don't have a "3" hitter. We have guys with too many questions to just out right give someone the role.

 

Lee- Has been the 3 hitter since Lou has been here, but has gotten worse every year from a production stand point

Bradley- Puts up 3 hitter numbers but isn't healthy enough to be in the lineup everyday so someone else is going to have to bat 3rd for at least 1/4 of the games

Soto- Slow start this year and because he is a catcher he can't be in the lineup everyday so again someone else will be batting 3rd for 1/4 of the season

Ramirez- Hasn't hit for as much power the last 2 years (or that much more than Lee, 53 HR .518/.549 SLG compared to Lee's 42 HR and .462/.513 SLG) as he has shown in the past, can be "streaky."

Fukudome- Not a power hitter (probably will never hit over 20 HR), isn't proven and has not sustained success for an entire season, yet.

 

Lee has been our 3 hitter the last two years when we have won 85 and 97 (best record in NL) games. We are off to a good start, 7-4, with guys missing time and we clearly haven't played to our potential yet. So I think until we go on a prolonged losing streak or a month or so of bad baseball I don't think we see change in the 3 spot for two reasons. One because we have won the division and made the playoffs the last 2 years with Lee batting 3rd and two because there isn't another guy on the team that is a clear favorite over Lee in the 3 spot.

[abuck1220]

why is espn wasting time on this when there is a yankee stadium/homerun crisis currently ongoing?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a curiously timed article, considering Lee hit .381/.417/.619/1.036 with 2 doubles and a home run last week.

[Banedon]

why is espn wasting time on this when there is a yankee stadium/homerun crisis currently ongoing?

 

Only 80% of their coverage is devoted to that. They still have 20% of their time to fill.

[abuck1220]

three different espn radio shows discussed the homerun/wind phenomenon at yankee stadium yesterday. fascinating stuff.

[jersey cubs fan]

This is a curiously timed article, considering Lee hit .381/.417/.619/1.036 with 2 doubles and a home run last week.

 

And yet his season stats remain putrid. I don't see how that is at all "curiously timed". It's an article about which early trends are likely to continue.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a curiously timed article, considering Lee hit .381/.417/.619/1.036 with 2 doubles and a home run last week.

 

And yet his season stats remain putrid. I don't see how that is at all "curiously timed". It's an article about which early trends are likely to continue.

 

So the "trend" is one terrible week? That he followed up by tearing the cover off the ball?

[jersey cubs fan]

This is a curiously timed article, considering Lee hit .381/.417/.619/1.036 with 2 doubles and a home run last week.

 

And yet his season stats remain putrid. I don't see how that is at all "curiously timed". It's an article about which early trends are likely to continue.

 

So the "trend" is one terrible week? That he followed up by tearing the cover off the ball?

 

The trend is the first two weeks of baseball, after which Derrek Lee's numbers look as bad as they did the last 5 months of 2008. The fact that he "tore the cover off the ball" for a couple days and yet that was unable to prop up his season-to-date stats shows just how bad he's been overall this year. Seriously, "curiously timed" doesn't really make any sense. It wasn't an article about Lee. It was an article about various early numbers, good or bad, and whether some people think that trend will continue.

[Guest]

This is a curiously timed article, considering Lee hit .381/.417/.619/1.036 with 2 doubles and a home run last week.

 

And yet his season stats remain putrid. I don't see how that is at all "curiously timed". It's an article about which early trends are likely to continue.

 

So the "trend" is one terrible week? That he followed up by tearing the cover off the ball?

 

The trend is the first two weeks of baseball, after which Derrek Lee's numbers look as bad as they did the last 5 months of 2008. The fact that he "tore the cover off the ball" for a couple days and yet that was unable to prop up his season-to-date stats shows just how bad he's been overall this year. Seriously, "curiously timed" doesn't really make any sense. It wasn't an article about Lee. It was an article about various early numbers, good or bad, and whether some people think that trend will continue.

I could be way off here but to me Lee looks like he's not recognizing the pitch or something. It's not that his bat is slow, it's that his entire reactions at the plate are slow.

 

I think is problems are more upstairs than physical.

[twothousandfive]

I think you can go back to the 2nd half of last year to see DLee has started a prolonged decline.

 

That's clearly the common opinion. But ESPN found someone linking it back to his injury in 2006. Does anyone have a mid-season 08 (really any time after April) cause for the decline? Anyone have a comparable fall-off from another player?

 

As I look at it, a year ao he picked up where he left off, after a hot Sep 07, which finished a pretty good 07 season. All of a sudden, at age 32, it just goes? I don't buy that. Maybe scouts around the league picked up something (Kevin Gregg, what did they say in Florida?).

 

And it looks as though his ave/obp did okay for a few extended stretches last year after April -- it's is power that seems to have gone. Is it that 2005 was a career year, and 2007 an aberation? I'm skeptical that he rebounds to better than league average for 1B, bt it's puzzling. What happened?