2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[Prior4CyYoung]

Gonzaga

Florida State

Xavier

Illinois

[Prior4CyYoung]

It's the 4 anonymous teams game again! Let me just state ahead of time that I'm using Sagarin's numbers vs. top 25, because the RPI numbers are not readily available for that group.

 

Team A: 24-6, 2-1 against the top 25, 5-3 against the top 50, 5-1 against 51-100, 10-5 road/neutral record, 2 losses outside the top 100, 1 loss outside the top 200, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 48

Team B: 25-5, 0-2 against the top 25, 6-3 against the top 50, 3-1 against 51-100, 15-3 road/neutral record, 1 loss outside the top 100, no losses outside the top 200, 11-1 in the last 12, SOS 84

Team C: 23-8, 3-5 against the top 25, 5-5 against the top 50, 5-3 against 51-100, 10-5 road/neutral record, no losses outside the top 100, no losses outside the top 200, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 19

Team D: 23-8, 3-3 against the top 25, 8-6 against the top 50, 3-2 against 51-100, 9-5 road/neutral record, no losses outside the top 100, no losses outside the top 200, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 26

 

EDITED: Counted wrong for one of the teams (I only got to look at 3 nitty gritty pages on BBState, so the 4th I had to do manually). Fixed.

 

I like Team C the most I really liked Team A till I saw 1 loss outside top 200 and 2 loses outside top 100.

[Flames24Rulz]

So, the next step (aside from waiting for bids):

1) Rank the 4 teams sitting locked together in the 16-19 slots (Xavier, Gonzaga, Florida State, Illinois). I'll post nitty-gritty-like stat sheets for them in the morning.

2) Rank the remaining 16 "in" teams that aren't placed in the S-Curve

3) Rank the 13 teams that will have already won automatic bids by the end of Thursday night (11 already plus NEC and Big Sky)

 

Send them to me via PM/post them here by the end of Thursday night.

 

As for the discussion during that time, I was thinking we could start putting together a bracket, now that we have the protected seeds pretty much settled. Assign legal regions and pods for the teams already placed in the S-Curve.

 

Florida St.

Illinois

Xavier

Gonzaga

 

16 other in:

 

1. Utah

2. Butler

3. West Virginia

4. Purdue

5. Marquette

6. Tennessee

7. Oklahoma St.

8. BYU

9. Texas

10. Wisconsin

11. Cal

12. Texas A&M

13. Arizona St.

14. Michigan

15. LSU

16. Boston College

 

13 auto bids:

 

1. Siena

2. Western Kentucky

3. VCU

4. Northern Iowa

5. Cleveland St.

6. North Dakota St.

7. Robert Morris

8. Portland St.

9. Cornell

10. ETSU

11. Radford

12. Morehead St.

13. Chattanooga

 

Edited to reflect aTm's horrible loss tonight.

[bukie]

Robert Morris and Portland State won their conference auto-bids last night.

[Exile on Waveland]

With Northwestern, Providence, and Miami (FL) all losing today, I think it's a reasonable assumption all three are heading to the NIT.

[SouthSideRyan]

With Northwestern, Providence, and Miami (FL) all losing today, I think it's a reasonable assumption all three are heading to the NIT.

 

Huh, I thought Miami had a lot more on their resume. Can all 3 of them.

 

7 Big East teams, crazy.

[bukie]

Should Kansas' spot be affected at all by that poor showing against Baylor?

 

By the way, with that odd result, either Baylor, Kansas State or Texas will be in the Big 12 tournament final.

[Exile on Waveland]

Should Kansas' spot be affected at all by that poor showing against Baylor?

 

By the way, with that odd result, either Baylor, Kansas State or Texas will be in the Big 12 tournament final.

 

We have them as a 3-seed, right? I'd be opposed to moving them off that line. I think Lunardi has them as a 2-seed, which I don't think they should be now (or before, actually).

 

Edit: I obviously should have added the caveat of "at this time." I figure most every team's seed is somewhat fluid.

Edited March 12, 2009 by Exile on Waveland

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Kansas is closer to a 4 right now. I think you have to move them towards the bottom of the 3's and allow other teams to play their way past them.

[bukie]

I think Washington and Villanova could jump Kansas pending their results in today's games. Beyond that...Missouri? Maybe if they win the conference tournament. UCLA? Same. Clemson? I think less and less of them as the season goes along. Xavier...eh, possibly. Gonzaga? Hard to say how good they really are, but they've been scorching hot. Florida State? Getting better as the season goes along, but I'm of the opinion even a 4 seed is high for them. They've accomplished a bunch, but really aren't that good of a team. Illinois, even biased, is a stretch for a 4 seed.

 

So, I guess I'm saying Kansas is likely still a 3 seed even with 2 bad losses in their last 2 games.

[SouthSideRyan]

KU is presently 10th on the S-Curve

 

Which 3 of these teams

 

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

16-19. Xavier/Gonzaga (WCC)/Florida State/Illinois

20. Syracuse

 

belong ahead of them to bump them to a 4?

[bukie]

KU is presently 10th on the S-Curve

 

Which 3 of these teams

 

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

16-19. Xavier/Gonzaga (WCC)/Florida State/Illinois

20. Syracuse

 

belong ahead of them to bump them to a 4?

Like I said, I'd bump Washington and Villanova ahead of them pending today's results (Villanova leads Marquette by 16 at the half), and possibly Missouri or UCLA if they won their conference tournaments. Beyond that, there's too much of a gap between them and the other teams on that list.

[SouthSideRyan]

KU is presently 10th on the S-Curve

 

Which 3 of these teams

 

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

16-19. Xavier/Gonzaga (WCC)/Florida State/Illinois

20. Syracuse

 

belong ahead of them to bump them to a 4?

Like I said, I'd bump Washington and Villanova ahead of them pending today's results (Villanova leads Marquette by 16 at the half), and possibly Missouri or UCLA if they won their conference tournaments. Beyond that, there's too much of a gap between them and the other teams on that list.

 

Yeah, I had my post written for awhile before hitting submit.

 

KU certainly feels like a 4, but there's not really a team that feels like a 3 to me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Using Sagarin for convenience.

 

Kansas: 25-7, 45 SOS, 3-3 v. Top 25, 9-4 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: Mizzou, @Oklahoma(sans Griffin), v. Washington; Worst Losses: v. UMass, @Texas Tech, v. Baylor

 

Villanova(in progress v. Marquette): 25-6, 50 SOS, 4-4 v. Top 25, 5-6 v. Top 50, 10-2 L12, Best wins: Pitt, swept Syracuse, Marquette; Worst Losses: Georgetown, @West Virginia, v. Texas

 

Washington: 24-7, 30 SOS, 3-4 v. Top 25, 7-6 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: UCLA, @Arizona St., Arizona St.; Worst Losses: @Portland, v. Florida, v. Cal

 

Mizzou: 25-6, 72 SOS, 3-3 v. Top 25, 7-5 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: Kansas, Oklahoma(w/ Griffin), @Texas; Worst Losses: @Nebraska, @Kansas State, @Texas A&M

 

UCLA: 24-7, 48 SOS, 3-3 v. Top 25, 7-6 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: Washington, swept Cal, swept USC; Worst Losses: Washington St., v. Michigan, @Arizona

 

 

I don't think there's a whole lot of separation there. If Mizzou beats OU again, and the other 3 play to their tourney seeds, I think you could be justified putting any of those 4 in front of Kansas.

[Exile on Waveland]

Using Sagarin for convenience.

 

Kansas: 25-7, 45 SOS, 3-3 v. Top 25, 9-4 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: Mizzou, @Oklahoma(sans Griffin), v. Washington; Worst Losses: v. UMass, @Texas Tech, v. Baylor

 

Villanova(in progress v. Marquette): 25-6, 50 SOS, 4-4 v. Top 25, 5-6 v. Top 50, 10-2 L12, Best wins: Pitt, swept Syracuse, Marquette; Worst Losses: Georgetown, @West Virginia, v. Texas

 

Washington: 24-7, 30 SOS, 3-4 v. Top 25, 7-6 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: UCLA, @Arizona St., Arizona St.; Worst Losses: @Portland, v. Florida, v. Cal

 

Mizzou: 25-6, 72 SOS, 3-3 v. Top 25, 7-5 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: Kansas, Oklahoma(w/ Griffin), @Texas; Worst Losses: @Nebraska, @Kansas State, @Texas A&M

 

UCLA: 24-7, 48 SOS, 3-3 v. Top 25, 7-6 v. Top 50, 9-3 L12, Best wins: Washington, swept Cal, swept USC; Worst Losses: Washington St., v. Michigan, @Arizona

 

 

I don't think there's a whole lot of separation there. If Mizzou beats OU again, and the other 3 play to their tourney seeds, I think you could be justified putting any of those 4 in front of Kansas.

 

 

Thanks. Still, to me, the 12-7 record against the top-50 Kansas sports separates them. Villanova is 9-10, Washington is 10-10, Mizzou 10-8, and UCLA 10-9. Again, things can still change. I'm saying at this point.

[bukie]

Actually, the record TT listed vs. the top 50 includes the top 25 also, so for instance Kansas is 9-4 against the top 50.

[bukie]

Speaking of bad losses, Clemson is trailing Georgia Tech by 10 with 3 minutes to play.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thanks. Still, to me, the 12-7 record against the top-50 Kansas sports separates them. Villanova is 9-10, Washington is 10-10, Mizzou 10-8, and UCLA 10-9. Again, things can still change. I'm saying at this point.

 

I know you've said it doesn't matter as much to you, but to me that slightly better record against the top 50 is tempered by Kansas having the worst slate of "bad losses". Plus, with the stipulation from my last post, Mizzou would have 2 more top 50 games(OU/OSU and Texas/KSU unless Baylor pulls it off), Villanova is beating a top 50 team right now(though they'll likely lose to Louisville), and UCLA and Washington would have Top-50 semis opponents before meeting in the finals.

[Exile on Waveland]

Actually, the record TT listed vs. the top 50 includes the top 25 also, so for instance Kansas is 9-4 against the top 50.

 

Oh, oops. My mistake.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think Washington has the worst slate of bad losses.

 

And UCLA is a cut below the other 4.

 

And stop talking about Mizzou TT.

[bukie]

Georgia Tech 86, Clemson 81. Clemson loses 4 of 5 to close out the year.

Michigan 73, Iowa 45.

BYU struggling with Air Force midway through the second half.

Villanova about to blow a 16-point lead against Marquette.

[bukie]

Oh, Marquette. Fought all the way back from at 16-point second half deficit to take a brief one-point lead with 20 seconds left, only to see Villanova win it with a layup at the buzzer.

[ISUCubsFan]

I'd put Nova ahead of Kansas. Other than that maybe Washington or Missouri with deep runs. I might consider UCLA, Illinois, or FSU if they win their conference tourney, but I think Kansas is clearly ahead of them at this point.

 

After today's loss Clemson should probably be included in the Florida St.-Illinois-Xavier-Gonzaga tiebreak.

[Exile on Waveland]

Oh, Marquette. Fought all the way back from at 16-point second half deficit to take a brief one-point lead with 20 seconds left, only to see Villanova win it with a layup at the buzzer.

 

Marquette the most impressive team ever to lose one of its best players then proceed to lose five of six, right?

[bukie]

Oh, Marquette. Fought all the way back from at 16-point second half deficit to take a brief one-point lead with 20 seconds left, only to see Villanova win it with a layup at the buzzer.

 

Marquette the most impressive team ever to lose one of its best players then proceed to lose five of six, right?

The schedule had as much to do with that as anything, but...yeah. :)