PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet

[Mephistopheles]

hey meph check out the #17 hitter "upside" rating

 

but try not to look at #2

 

 

look at #29. and his simindex is actually pretty respectable, meaning his PECOTA is much much more meaningful than Revere or Wieters.

[sneakypower]

i hope you're not saying Heyward's a better bet than Wieters.

 

at any rate, that SimIndex doesn't make sense. Adam Dunn, the most predictable player alive, registers an 8. though I don't doubt i'm misunderstanding it.

[Mephistopheles]

simindex basically is how rare a player is. so it's basically how close to him his comparables are. PECOTA uses a bunch of guys with a high enough simscore in their projections. If there arent enough guys above that point, then they have a lower simindex and PECOTA then "lowers" the standards and allows more disimilar guys to be used. As for Revere vs Heyward, it's saying that there are quite a few guys who hit as well as Heyward at his age and career path in low a. There arent many teens who hit .380 with no power nor walks in low a. ditto for Mauer's low score. He's the first catcher to win a batting title i believe. Once guys are established with long career paths having a low simindex isn't that big of a deal. When you're in the minors with no ML experience, it's paramount to getting any utility out of PECOTA. As for Dunn how many guys walk 100 times hit 40 HRs, with 200 Ks and hit .230? Not a lot.

[treebird]

Why then would a 5 star prospect have such horrid comparisons? It makes no sense.

 

Because he's got the tools that impress scouts but not the production that impresses numbers people?

 

BP has him as a 5-Star Prospect.

 

kevin goldstein is hardly a numbers person

[TruffleShuffle]

how catchers OPS 1.100 at AA when they're 22 years old? not a lot.

[Mephistopheles]

whats your point?

 

 

oh yeah you dont have one.

[TruffleShuffle]

:roll:

[imb]

boom, roasted

[TruffleShuffle]

i see that j.r. towles has tom prince as one of his pecota comps. this guy is going places, folks.

[Mephistopheles]

i see that j.r. towles has tom prince as one of his pecota comps. this guy is going places, folks.

http://body.builder.hu/imagebank/starprofile/Tom_Prince.jpg

 

Justin will be useful one day.

[CubinNY]

i see that j.r. towles has tom prince as one of his pecota comps. this guy is going places, folks.

http://body.builder.hu/imagebank/starprofile/Tom_Prince.jpg

 

Justin will be useful one day.

That guy has an iPod Shuffle.

[wilk]

Psh, I guess none of you want to improve OOTP 10? Fine, I'll do it all myself.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

PECOTA picks the Cubs to win the Central by 13 games

[wade]

PECOTA picks the Cubs to win the Central by 13 games

 

Awesome. They sport the highest OBP as well (along with the BoSox)

[CubinNY]

PECOTA picks the Cubs to win the Central by 13 games

I'm not a huge fan of PECOTA projections for players, but historically it seems to be a good approximation model for teams.

 

Last year, just eyeballing things in the NL it seems to have been well within the margin of error for most teams and got the standing almost exactly correct with a few exceptions in relation to order of teams.

 

Last year it had the Giants in last in the West and the Reds, Cardinals, and Astros were off in both order and wins by a good margin.

 

If the projection holds this bodes very well for the Cubs. At least it gives me some hope for my glass half-empty Cubs outlook.

[cubbinalltheway]

PECOTA picks the Cubs to win the Central by 13 games

wow, they have the angels finishing under .500? i know they lost their closer and their first baseman, but that seems a bit much.

[AlwaysaCub]

871 runs scored is one hell of a projection for this team as currently constructed.

[treebird]

871 runs scored is one hell of a projection for this team as currently constructed.

 

they have bradley hitting 290/400/520 in 490 ab and fukudome hitting 290/390/440 in 460 ab.

 

this team is constructed very well if those things happen.

[AlwaysaCub]

871 runs scored is one hell of a projection for this team as currently constructed.

 

they have bradley hitting 290/400/520 in 490 ab and fukudome hitting 290/390/440 in 460 ab.

 

this team is constructed very well if those things happen.

 

Fair point, and I think both lines are possible from those two, but I see big downside and 871 being more on the upside.

[dew1679666265]

871 runs scored is one hell of a projection for this team as currently constructed.

 

they have bradley hitting 290/400/520 in 490 ab and fukudome hitting 290/390/440 in 460 ab.

 

this team is constructed very well if those things happen.

 

That'd be the second most ABs of Bradley's career. I'll be shocked if he comes close to it, but utterly ecstatic.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Told you guys PECOTA was on the Brewers hard.

 

I'm not saying they are great, but I was thinking they'd fall down to Pirates levels without Sheets/Sabathia.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

PECOTA still hates on Jeff Samardzija, though. 6.29 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.

[Mephistopheles]

Irrelevant.

[Tyrant]

Irrelevant.

 

What's irrelevant?

 

Or are we just saying words without any context?

 

Syphilis!

[Mephistopheles]

syzygy!