Cubs sign Aaron Miles per Levine

[The Other 15]

even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

 

I'd be interested in seeing your stats to back up that 10-12 win regression.

 

And it is a little hard to make any such definitive statements until you see the final team they bring to spring training.

 

Considering we were a 90 or so win team that managed to win 97 games last season I don't have to do much. Basically, all I have to say is that Ryan Dempster's ERA needs to go up a run and that Milton Bradley isn't Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore and I've covered my three wins or so. I'd put the Cubs right around 88 true level, right around 90 adjusted for the NLC.

 

Wow, You're so smaaaaart! The way you wax poetic about how a 97 win team can regress to about 90 wins is so interesting. I'm sure you're so smaaaart, you already know that any 97 team can win 7 less games (shockingly, even ones with Sizemore and Beltran).

 

This is why I love reading your posts. You save me so much time. Now I don't have to waste the season watching games. I'll just tune in to see a 90 win Cubs team begin a playoff series in Wrigley taking on the hated Diamondbacks.

 

well then

 

Honestly, I'm not this big of a jag-bag, it's just that so many people are so certain of everything they write that they forget the game is not played on a spreadsheet. Uber-intelligent arguments for Khalil Greene are more likely to stupid as then they are to look ingenious. Predicting 97 win teams to regress to 90 wins is more Colubmus conning the savages that he can move the moon to cover the sun than some insightful statement.

[Mephistopheles]

over the course of 350 PAs and tons of innings of worse defense play how much of an upgrade is he over ronny cedeno on offense? a couple runs here and there? Aaron Miles also spent time sucking in Coors, Cedeno did not. I am not saying Cedeno is better on offense, you can make a case either way on that argument. I am saying that Cedeno is better than him on defense and that the difference between Cedeno and Miles overall over the course of a season backing up players is a few runs at best and that's not worth five mil considering Cedeno doesn't appear to be going anywhere.

[Mephistopheles]

And holy veterans committee, comparing him to Neifi Perez?

 

Do .032 points of OBP mean nothing these days?

 

it doesnt mean anything when you include defense something Neifi was very good at and miles isn't good at. even neifi slugged .480 in coors. miles didnt slugged .400 in colorado.

Edited December 31, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Hairyducked Idiot]

over the course of 350 PAs and tons of innings of worse defense play how much of an upgrade is he over ronny cedeno on offense? a couple runs here and there? Aaron Miles also spent time sucking in Coors, Cedeno did not. I am not saying Cedeno is better on offense, you can make a case either way on that argument. I am saying that Cedeno is better than him on defense and that the difference between Cedeno and Miles overall over the course of a season backing up players is a few runs at best and that's not worth five mil considering Cedeno doesn't appear to be going anywhere.

 

You really cannot make a case either way offensively. Cedeno is significantly worse offensively.

 

Defensively is always awfully tricky, so I won't try to dispute it.

 

I agree it's not worth the money. Hendry has never been afraid to piss away a few million on mediocrity. But let's not mistake mediocrity for Neifiocrity.

[AZCub]

Mike Fontenot and prospects for Roberts. :pig:

[Mephistopheles]

over the course of 350 PAs and tons of innings of worse defense play how much of an upgrade is he over ronny cedeno on offense? a couple runs here and there? Aaron Miles also spent time sucking in Coors, Cedeno did not. I am not saying Cedeno is better on offense, you can make a case either way on that argument. I am saying that Cedeno is better than him on defense and that the difference between Cedeno and Miles overall over the course of a season backing up players is a few runs at best and that's not worth five mil considering Cedeno doesn't appear to be going anywhere.

 

You really cannot make a case either way offensively. Cedeno is significantly worse offensively.

 

Sure you can. It's called ability versus production. Cedeno has not yet hit at the major league level consistently, but his outstanding success in AAA does make a good argument that he is better than what he's done thus far at the major league level. And he doesn't have to do all that much better to top Miles career 79 OPS+. In fact, only for one season in his career has Aaron Miles been noticeably better than what Cedeno did last season. Just once. At this point Cedeno's probably a .240s EqA hitter and Miles is much of the same.

 

I'm not saying that the argument is right or wrong. I'm saying that it exists and is a perfectly fine one. I say the two of them are a tossup, but Cedeno's got more upside is younger and cheaper as well as better defensively so I'll take him. He has the ability to push out Theriot for starting SS. Miles doesn't.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sure you can. It's called ability versus production. Cedeno has not yet hit at the major league level consistently, but his outstanding success in AAA does make a good argument that he is better than what he's done thus far at the major league level. And he doesn't have to do all that much better to top Miles career 79 OPS+. In fact, only for one season in his career has Aaron Miles been noticeably better than what Cedeno did last season. Just once. At this point Cedeno's probably a .240s EqA hitter and Miles is much of the same.

 

I was going to point out that Cedeno's season was heavily influenced by getting platoon-friendly ABs, but there's not much point if he had such a weird reverse split.

 

Cedeno's wonderful ability has been projected from about 600 PAs in AAA. He sucked before that, he sucked concurrently in 900 MLB PAs.

[Rob]

I sure hope Miles is part of a platoon... but that looks an awful lot like starter-money.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Im not sure if this means anythin at all, I just founf it interesting. On mlb.com, I was looking over the Cubs depth chart, and at 2B, it weant

 

Aaron Miles

Ronny Cedeno

Mike Fontenot

 

With all of the other positions, they seemed to go by who woul get the most playing time first, so I was wondring what this means for Font, if anything.

[haltz]

Miles isn't really a backup SS. He's only a SS insofar as Tony had a mancrush on him and had him stand there with a glove on his hand for 774 innings over the last three years. He's brutal defensively there and any team is better off never having him play the position.

 

He's a backup 2B that is below average there defensively and hits .290 without any other discernable skills. He wasn't worth the million or so the Cardinals paid him until last year when he inexplicably hit .317.

[David]

Im not sure if this means anythin at all, I just founf it interesting. On mlb.com, I was looking over the Cubs depth chart, and at 2B, it weant

 

Aaron Miles

Ronny Cedeno

Mike Fontenot

 

With all of the other positions, they seemed to go by who woul get the most playing time first, so I was wondring what this means for Font, if anything.

 

Seriously?

 

It means nothing. That might turn out to be the case. But whoever put up that depth chart doesn't know anything we don't.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Miles isn't really a backup SS. He's only a SS insofar as Tony had a mancrush on him and had him stand there with a glove on his hand for 774 innings over the last three years. He's brutal defensively there and any team is better off never having him play the position.

 

He's a backup 2B that is below average there defensively and hits .290 without any other discernable skills. He wasn't worth the million or so the Cardinals paid him until last year when he inexplicably hit .317.

 

the avg. isnt really that inexplicalbe. His avg. has always been in the .290s, but its the career OPS in the .600's thats the issue.

 

The funny thing about Miles is that his career number dont seem all that different than DeRosas until his breakout in 2006 when Texas finally gave him a chance to be a full time player.

[haltz]

the avg. isnt really that inexplicalbe. His avg. has always been in the .290s, but its the career OPS in the .600's thats the issue.

His average was .283 coming into this season with a lot of at-bats in Coors. But you're right, it's not inexplicable, just unlikely and the only way he can actually provide any value since his underlying skills didn't change and he's not much of a defender.

[abuck1220]

Im not sure if this means anythin at all, I just founf it interesting. On mlb.com, I was looking over the Cubs depth chart, and at 2B, it weant

 

Aaron Miles

Ronny Cedeno

Mike Fontenot

 

With all of the other positions, they seemed to go by who woul get the most playing time first, so I was wondring what this means for Font, if anything.

 

piniella is the webmaster at cubs.com, so i'm guessing this is pretty significant news.

 

come on.

[Monco]

he inexplicably hit .317.

 

I can explain that ... contract year.

[17 Seconds]

Im not sure if this means anythin at all, I just founf it interesting. On mlb.com, I was looking over the Cubs depth chart, and at 2B, it weant

 

Aaron Miles

Ronny Cedeno

Mike Fontenot

 

With all of the other positions, they seemed to go by who woul get the most playing time first, so I was wondring what this means for Font, if anything.

 

wat

[17 Seconds]

he inexplicably hit .317.

 

I can explain that ... contract year.

 

with the cardinals

[haltz]

he inexplicably hit .317.

 

I can explain that ... contract year.

He was non-tendered.

[Mephistopheles]

he inexplicably hit .317.

 

I can explain that ... contract year.

 

No.

[Mephistopheles]

he inexplicably hit .317.

 

I can explain that ... contract year.

He was non-tendered.

 

Yep.

[Monco]

Miles is not really a bad pickup, hes not an upgrade though. Unless they feel hes even more versatile than Derosa because of his pitching.

[Bull]

Im not sure if this means anythin at all, I just founf it interesting. On mlb.com, I was looking over the Cubs depth chart, and at 2B, it weant

 

Aaron Miles

Ronny Cedeno

Mike Fontenot

 

With all of the other positions, they seemed to go by who woul get the most playing time first, so I was wondring what this means for Font, if anything.

 

Meaningless.

[RynoRules]

why should i assume that the chips fall into place when defending my comment when my comments were assuming that chips did not fall into place? I said as of right now..."Probably not" has not weakened because the prospect we got aren't ones that SD would covet. The two are likely unrelated. If anything, it has made the probably not more likely because we can't trade DeRosa for prospects they say they want down the road when a deal is near completion.

 

Sorry 0 for 1.

 

Harden for 115 innings and Marshall for the other starts? Marshall has to take Marquis starts (relatively similar production levels there). The other starts go to guys like Kevin Hart and Jeff Samardzija. Again, my original comment was that thus far that the Cubs are about 10 wins worse than they were last season. Not that the Cubs with Peavy are 10 wins worse. Basically I am saying that 1+1 is 2. You are saying no, 1 + 1 + 2 does not equal 2 because you need to assume that the +2 happened.

 

Sorry 0 for 2.

 

For Dempster, there's being very good, and there's being what Dempster was last season. I'd put Dempster's true level for next season somewhere right around a 4.00 RA. That IS very good. However, that difference from 2009 to last even with assuming him to be a 4.00 RA pitcher is a difference of nearly two wins alone.

 

Sorry 0 for 3.

 

You think Fontenot and Miles can hit .300/.380/.460 combined over 162 games? I just don't know what to say. That is inane. Fontenot could come close if he hits his 90th percentile. That's a 10% chance of happening....not very likely.

 

Sorry 0 for 4.

 

Um okay Marmol replaces Wood fine. Who replaces Marmol? Gregg? C'mon Gregg is trashy. The pen will be better because the rotation is better? That's dumb. The rotation is not better and the pen lost its second best piece. Those comments don't add up.

 

Sorry 0 for 5.

 

I don't know why I bother. You still think Greene is the Second Coming and won't come off of it for anyone.

 

My argument was based on the assumption that Peavy will be here. If he is, it changes Marshall's and JS' roles, allowing Marshall to essentially "back up" Harden and JS to replace Marmol as the primary set up guy. If he isn't its a different story.

 

And yes, a pen can be better if the rotation is better. I don't understand why you don't get that, other than purposeful ignorance.

[RynoRules]

I don't understand why people think Marmol won't be as productive as Wood was in the closer role. The rest of the pen is a concern, yes, but since the starting rotation will be better, so will the pen.

 

 

That's the point. It's not about Marmol replacing Wood. Ideally, Marmol doesn't replace Wood, but the pen as a whole is probably going to be worse.

 

Assuming Peavy at this point is a stretch. Assuming improved OF production is a bigger stretch. Confidence in Bradley playing 140 games is very risky. Repeating 2B production is a near impossibility.

 

You've glossed over nearly every concern and are only assuming positive outcomes to as yet undetermined questions. The Cubs had a lot go their way last year. Most teams suffer unexpected setbacks.

 

That's the whole point - I am not being realistic. Meph's argument of a 10-12 win digression ignored the assumption that we will acquire Peavy.

 

And what is wrong with ignoring such an assumption? The Cubs are who they are right now. If the story changes, the projections will change, but I don't see the point in assuming Peavy is a Cub.

 

B/c the projections (10-12 less wins) - as I understood them (look at the original posts) - were based on Peavy and Bradley being here and DeRosa and Marquis being traded. That's what this whole argument is about - he now wants to be able to base his prediction on a team without Peavy (which naturally greatly benefits his argument), when the prediction was actually made based on the assumption that Peavy will in-fact be here.

[sneakypower]

When did we finalize the trade for Grady Sizemore? Because that's what we need to do if we're going to replace the production that we got from center last season.

this is absolutely one of the dumbest, most indefensible things you've ever said