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Posted
even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

What if we get Peavy for the DeRosa prospects, and no one very valuable to the major league team and go into the season with this roster?

 

OF: Soriano, Johnson, Fukudome, Gathright, Bradley

IF: Ramirez, Theriot, Fontenot, Miles, Lee, another bad backup IF

C: Soto, Koyie Hill

 

SP: Peavy, Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly, Marshall

RP: Gregg, Marmol, Samardzija, Wuertz, Cotts, Guzman, Vizcaino

 

Gone in trades would be: Marquis, Pie, Cedeno, DeRosa, minor leaguers from Cleveland, and a few other lower level guys from Cubs.

 

Harden on the DL already?

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Posted
Interesting.

 

For a middle infielder, he has average OBP skills. Below average power. Overall a below average offensive player. I'm pretty sure he is rated at being very solid defensively (I know the Cardinals saw him as a strong middle infielder defensively). Overall, an average middle infielder.

 

 

If you think Aaron Miles is an "average middle infielder" then I just don't know what to say. Aaron Miles and Neifi Perez are interchangeable. This is nowhere close to being anything but an irrational stupid move that should get Hendry fired. There's no excuse for this deal.

There are all sorts of reasons why downgrading from DeRosa to Miles (or someone else) makes sense.

 

The simplest explanation is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley.

 

The explanation that many here are running with is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley, PLUS the prospects gotten for DeRosa are needed to land Peavy.

 

If grabbing Aaron Miles is the lynchpin for landing both Bradley and Peavy, then who's going to complain at all, let alone claim "there's no excuse" for it?

 

Now if you want to make the argument that there are other alternatives out there in the highly-versatile IF/OF mold that would be some combination of better and/or cheaper than Miles, then I'm all ears.

Posted
even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

 

I'd be interested in seeing your stats to back up that 10-12 win regression.

 

And it is a little hard to make any such definitive statements until you see the final team they bring to spring training.

 

Considering we were a 90 or so win team that managed to win 97 games last season I don't have to do much. Basically, all I have to say is that Ryan Dempster's ERA needs to go up a run and that Milton Bradley isn't Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore and I've covered my three wins or so. I'd put the Cubs right around 88 true level, right around 90 adjusted for the NLC.

Posted
even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

 

I'd be interested in seeing your stats to back up that 10-12 win regression.

 

And it is a little hard to make any such definitive statements until you see the final team they bring to spring training.

 

Considering we were a 90 or so win team that managed to win 97 games last season I don't have to do much. Basically, all I have to say is that Ryan Dempster's ERA needs to go up a run and that Milton Bradley isn't Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore and I've covered my three wins or so. I'd put the Cubs right around 88 true level, right around 90 adjusted for the NLC.

 

Wasn't their pythag right at 97 last year? Or are you using projected 2009 numbers?

Posted
even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

What if we get Peavy for the DeRosa prospects, and no one very valuable to the major league team and go into the season with this roster?

 

OF: Soriano, Johnson, Fukudome, Gathright, Bradley

IF: Ramirez, Theriot, Fontenot, Miles, Lee, another bad backup IF

C: Soto, Koyie Hill

 

SP: Peavy, Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly, Marshall

RP: Gregg, Marmol, Samardzija, Wuertz, Cotts, Guzman, Vizcaino

 

Gone in trades would be: Marquis, Pie, Cedeno, DeRosa, minor leaguers from Cleveland, and a few other lower level guys from Cubs.

 

Harden?

Posted
even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

What if we get Peavy for the DeRosa prospects, and no one very valuable to the major league team and go into the season with this roster?

 

OF: Soriano, Johnson, Fukudome, Gathright, Bradley

IF: Ramirez, Theriot, Fontenot, Miles, Lee, another bad backup IF

C: Soto, Koyie Hill

 

SP: Peavy, Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly, Marshall

RP: Gregg, Marmol, Samardzija, Wuertz, Cotts, Guzman, Vizcaino

 

Gone in trades would be: Marquis, Pie, Cedeno, DeRosa, minor leaguers from Cleveland, and a few other lower level guys from Cubs.

 

Harden?

 

See last post on pg. 4. I forgot him. Move marshall to BP and get rid of Wuertz/Guzman.

Posted
There are all sorts of reasons why downgrading from DeRosa to Miles (or someone else) makes sense.

 

The simplest explanation is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley.

 

The explanation that many here are running with is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley, PLUS the prospects gotten for DeRosa are needed to land Peavy.

 

If grabbing Aaron Miles is the lynchpin for landing both Bradley and Peavy, then who's going to complain at all, let alone claim "there's no excuse" for it?

 

Now if you want to make the argument that there are other alternatives out there in the highly-versatile IF/OF mold that would be some combination of better and/or cheaper than Miles, then I'm all ears.

 

This is short-sighted and naive. There's nothing wrong with acquiring another middle infielder to back up Fontenot to allow DeRosa is traded. The problem is if we're making moves to save money and get some prospects, why in the world are we spending five million on a one million dollar player? Alex Cintron and Luis Rivas aren't noticeably worse in a backup role and will probably be getting minor league deals.

Posted
even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

 

I'd be interested in seeing your stats to back up that 10-12 win regression.

 

And it is a little hard to make any such definitive statements until you see the final team they bring to spring training.

 

Considering we were a 90 or so win team that managed to win 97 games last season I don't have to do much. Basically, all I have to say is that Ryan Dempster's ERA needs to go up a run and that Milton Bradley isn't Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore and I've covered my three wins or so. I'd put the Cubs right around 88 true level, right around 90 adjusted for the NLC.

 

Wasn't their pythag right at 97 last year? Or are you using projected 2009 numbers?

 

98.6 - but as usual he just makes up numbers to support his (usually wrong) point and assumes no one knows how to look it up themselves.

Posted
There are all sorts of reasons why downgrading from DeRosa to Miles (or someone else) makes sense.

 

The simplest explanation is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley.

 

The explanation that many here are running with is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley, PLUS the prospects gotten for DeRosa are needed to land Peavy.

 

If grabbing Aaron Miles is the lynchpin for landing both Bradley and Peavy, then who's going to complain at all, let alone claim "there's no excuse" for it?

 

Now if you want to make the argument that there are other alternatives out there in the highly-versatile IF/OF mold that would be some combination of better and/or cheaper than Miles, then I'm all ears.

 

This is short-sighted and naive. There's nothing wrong with acquiring another middle infielder to back up Fontenot to allow DeRosa is traded. The problem is if we're making moves to save money and get some prospects, why in the world are we spending five million on a one million dollar player? Alex Cintron and Luis Rivas aren't noticeably worse in a backup role and will probably be getting minor league deals.

 

I agree 100%. These are the types of signings that end up precluding a bigger signing later. For $1.5 million over the next 2 years, you could get the same production that Miles is going to give you for $5 million. Do that at 2 or 3 positions (backup catcher, middle relief) and you've just cost yourself a decent player at a more important position.

Posted
98.6 - but as usual he just makes up numbers to support his (usually wrong) point and assumes no one knows how to look it up themselves.

 

Right. The Cubs are going to get the same production out of shortstop, secondbase, centerfield, two pitching spots and our bullpen. If you think that is true, then perhaps we're somewhere in the low 90s. If you think that is true. Is 88 wins really all that surprising? Everyone thought we were close to that last year when we had almost the exact same team. Then a lot of guys had outlier seasons.

Posted
There are all sorts of reasons why downgrading from DeRosa to Miles (or someone else) makes sense.

 

The simplest explanation is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley.

 

The explanation that many here are running with is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley, PLUS the prospects gotten for DeRosa are needed to land Peavy.

 

If grabbing Aaron Miles is the lynchpin for landing both Bradley and Peavy, then who's going to complain at all, let alone claim "there's no excuse" for it?

 

Now if you want to make the argument that there are other alternatives out there in the highly-versatile IF/OF mold that would be some combination of better and/or cheaper than Miles, then I'm all ears.

 

This is short-sighted and naive. There's nothing wrong with acquiring another middle infielder to back up Fontenot to allow DeRosa is traded. The problem is if we're making moves to save money and get some prospects, why in the world are we spending five million on a one million dollar player? Alex Cintron and Luis Rivas aren't noticeably worse in a backup role and will probably be getting minor league deals.

Cintron and Rivas don't offer the flexibility of playing IF and OF the way DeRosa and Miles do. Try again.

 

I'm not saying there aren't viable alternatives to Miles (and truth be told any decent system should yield a decent super-util guy like this), but you haven't offered any yet.

Posted
He can play middle infield AND he can pitch :lol:

 

 

Miles

Dempster

Harden

Zambrano

Peavy

 

Season over.

Posted
just because our pythag was 98 or w/e it doesn't mean we were a 98 win team going into the offseason.

 

I could just as easily say that Soriano won't be hurt as much next year, Ramirez will bounce back from a fairly mediocre season, Fukudome will be better with a year of adjustment to MLB under his belt and that a full season of Harden will offset any decline by Dempster. Just because you want to only look at the possible negatives doesn't make your statement of a 10-12 win regression accurate.

Posted
There are all sorts of reasons why downgrading from DeRosa to Miles (or someone else) makes sense.

 

The simplest explanation is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley.

 

The explanation that many here are running with is that the extra $$$ is needed to sign Bradley, PLUS the prospects gotten for DeRosa are needed to land Peavy.

 

If grabbing Aaron Miles is the lynchpin for landing both Bradley and Peavy, then who's going to complain at all, let alone claim "there's no excuse" for it?

 

Now if you want to make the argument that there are other alternatives out there in the highly-versatile IF/OF mold that would be some combination of better and/or cheaper than Miles, then I'm all ears.

 

This is short-sighted and naive. There's nothing wrong with acquiring another middle infielder to back up Fontenot to allow DeRosa is traded. The problem is if we're making moves to save money and get some prospects, why in the world are we spending five million on a one million dollar player? Alex Cintron and Luis Rivas aren't noticeably worse in a backup role and will probably be getting minor league deals.

 

I agree 100%. These are the types of signings that end up precluding a bigger signing later. For $1.5 million over the next 2 years, you could get the same production that Miles is going to give you for $5 million. Do that at 2 or 3 positions (backup catcher, middle relief) and you've just cost yourself a decent player at a more important position.

What you seem to be missing is that the Cubs are paying a premium to have 6 positions backed up by one roster spot.

 

If you want to slam the Miles signing, then propose a viable alternative capable of doing the same.

Posted
98.6 - but as usual he just makes up numbers to support his (usually wrong) point and assumes no one knows how to look it up themselves.

 

Right. The Cubs are going to get the same production out of shortstop, secondbase, centerfield, two pitching spots and our bullpen. If you think that is true, then perhaps we're somewhere in the low 90s. If you think that is true. Is 88 wins really all that surprising? Everyone thought we were close to that last year when we had almost the exact same team. Then a lot of guys had outlier seasons.

 

Other than Dempster and Theriot they didn't really have anyone putting up "outlier seasons". Better years from Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez could easily offset any regressions that you are assuming. Plus Harden for a full season, Bradley upgrading RF and possibly Peavy instead of Marquis.

Posted
98.6 - but as usual he just makes up numbers to support his (usually wrong) point and assumes no one knows how to look it up themselves.

 

Right. The Cubs are going to get the same production out of shortstop, secondbase, centerfield, two pitching spots and our bullpen. If you think that is true, then perhaps we're somewhere in the low 90s. If you think that is true. Is 88 wins really all that surprising? Everyone thought we were close to that last year when we had almost the exact same team. Then a lot of guys had outlier seasons.

 

The 2009 team will have Harden for an entire season and - assuming the chips fall as predicted - Peavy as well. They take the place of Marquis and the three or four guys we were using in the 5 spot of the rotation.

 

How can you possibly think that this - coupled with the change at 2B, closer (assuming Marmol closes and Gregg sets-up), and RF - will cause the Cubs to digress by 10-12 wins? Really - please show me your work on this one.

Posted
Cintron and Rivas don't offer the flexibility of playing IF and OF the way DeRosa and Miles do. Try again.

 

Miles's "ability" to play the OF only means we have an option to put a really bad OF on the field. The Cubs do not lack of outfield depth. The fact that Miles has played there brings absolutely no real value to the Cubs.

Posted
Cintron and Rivas don't offer the flexibility of playing IF and OF the way DeRosa and Miles do. Try again.

 

I'm not saying there aren't viable alternatives to Miles (and truth be told any decent system should yield a decent super-util guy like this), but you haven't offered any yet.

 

Im working under the assumption that DeRosa's gone. If DeRosa's not gone then we have Fontenot and Cedeno. Do we really need a fourth second-sacker that costs 5 mil? Answer: Hell no. If Cedeno and DeRosa are out in trades, then yes we probably would be in the market for another infeilder who can back up in the middle infield. Cintron can play 3B, 2B, and is a natural SS. Mile has played all of like 35 innings over the course of five major league seasons in the outfield. Considering we have Soriano, Fukudome, Johnson, and Bradley who can all play every outfield position plus Hoff in the corners, we don't need any more versatility in the outfield. Any position player who can play SS offers the exact same flexibility that Miles offers. Rivas and Cintron do that.

Posted
Well, he is white. So he has that going for him.

All they day games will wear him down.

Posted
Cintron and Rivas don't offer the flexibility of playing IF and OF the way DeRosa and Miles do. Try again.

 

I'm not saying there aren't viable alternatives to Miles (and truth be told any decent system should yield a decent super-util guy like this), but you haven't offered any yet.

 

Im working under the assumption that DeRosa's gone. If DeRosa's not gone then we have Fontenot and Cedeno. Do we really need a fourth second-sacker that costs 5 mil? Answer: Hell no. If Cedeno and DeRosa are out in trades, then yes we probably would be in the market for another infeilder who can back up in the middle infield. Cintron can play 3B, 2B, and is a natural SS. Mile has played all of like 35 innings over the course of five major league seasons in the outfield. Considering we have Soriano, Fukudome, Johnson, and Bradley who can all play every outfield position plus Hoff in the corners, we don't need any more versatility in the outfield. Any position player who can play SS offers the exact same flexibility that Miles offers. Rivas and Cintron do that.

 

Agreed. Hendry's focus was on replacing Derosa's versatility, no matter how much worse he was at playing those positions.

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