Baldelli?

[Sever82]

Why hasn't anybody mentioned his name. Supposedly in the news this past week is that he had been misdiagnosed on the disease he suffered from and the disease he actually has is curable. I think he is no doubt worth at least a one year deal to try him out. Doubt the Cubs will sign him but some lucky club will.

[MixmastaMiguel]

No offense, but if we got Baldelli to be our big RF, then I would be very disappointed. He's more injury prone than Bradley, and no where near as good. Our OF is already pretty full.

[Mephistopheles]

I hate rocco.

[Mephistopheles]

No offense, but if we got Baldelli to be our big RF, then I would be very disappointed. He's more injury prone than Bradley, and no where near as good. Our OF is already pretty full.

 

our we could play rocco in center, fukudome in right and have the best defensive outfield in baseball by a significant margin for a pitching staff that has pitchers who are relative flyball ones.

[soonercub]

He stands on the wrong side of the plate.

[Derwood]

he could play LF at Iowa (with Pie in CF and Gathright in RF)

[Mephistopheles]

its too bad that roccos already the player that is pie's ceiling.

[davearm2]

If Hendry could trade Reed Johnson for a little something (or package him with Pie/Hill/Marquis/whatever) and then sign Baldelli for the same $$$ as Johnson, that'd be a pretty slick little upgrade on the RH 4th OF/Fukudome platoonmate spot.

 

Seems like Marcel and Bill James wOBA projections for '09 were the measuring stick in the Gathright thread. Baldelli's are .346 and .336; Johnson .326 and .329.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I suggested Rocco as part of a DeRosa/Fontenot/Rocco three headed monster at 2B/RF a couple weeks back. For that purpose it'd be similar to adding Bradley but without the contractural commitment.

[sneakypower]

its too bad that roccos already the player that is pie's ceiling.

ridiculous.

[imb]

its too bad that roccos already the player that is pie's ceiling.

ridiculous.

 

maybe he meant in the "having a disease" sense

[wrigley23]

what Sooner Cub said. Hendry is looking for a LH middle of the order hitter, a true leadoff hitter, a middle reliever & possibly an upgrade at SP...in no particular order although the LH hitting hitter is the main priority.

[Mephistopheles]

its too bad that roccos already the player that is pie's ceiling.

ridiculous.

 

Not really...

 

If Rocco could ever stay healthy (which is a longshot, obviously) he's probably a .290/.330/.490 player with above average defense baserunning. That's Pie's ceiling, and probably more power than Pie will have.

[17 Seconds]

its too bad that roccos already the player that is pie's ceiling.

ridiculous.

 

Not really...

 

If Rocco could ever stay healthy (which is a longshot, obviously) he's probably a .290/.330/.490 player with plus defense and plus base running. That's Pie's ceiling.

 

umm you just said he "already is" that player, which he clearly is not.

[Mephistopheles]

He is that player if he's healthy. I said nothing about the risk involved with him (or Pie).

[17 Seconds]

He is that player if he's healthy. I said nothing about the risk involved with him (or Pie).

 

how do you know he's that player when he's healthy? you're guessing.

[badnews]

Who cares, he's not healthy. I can tell it's the offseason again, Mephistopheles is bending over backwards for Rocco Baldelli. There's one of these topics going back like three years.

[Mephistopheles]

He is that player if he's healthy. I said nothing about the risk involved with him (or Pie).

 

how do you know he's that player when he's healthy? you're guessing.

 

because the last time he was healthy he was that player and the two years before that when he was healthy he was on the path to becoming that player and was just 22. not to mention he was pretty much that player in limited action this year. he also has more raw talent than pie. his tools better pies across the board. you may want to call it a guess, but it's an educated guess that's more likely than PECOTA, DEXTERMORGAN or ZiPS.

[17 Seconds]

He is that player if he's healthy. I said nothing about the risk involved with him (or Pie).

 

how do you know he's that player when he's healthy? you're guessing.

 

because the last time he was healthy he was that player and the two years before that when he was healthy he was on the path to becoming that player and was just 22. not to mention he was pretty much that player in limited action this year. he also has more raw talent than pie. his tools better pies across the board. you may want to call it a guess, but it's an educated guess that's more likely than PECOTA, DEXTERMORGAN or ZiPS.

 

because the last time he was healthy he was that player

 

You mean in 2006 for like 350 at-bats? So that means he's that player now? You know perfectly well that 350 at-bats proves nothing other than the fact that you can go on anextended hot streak. Mike Fontenot OPSd over .900 in a similar sample size this year.

 

he was on the path to becoming that player

 

he also has more raw talent than pie. his tools better pies across the board. you may want to call it a guess, but it's an educated guess that's more likely than PECOTA, DEXTERMORGAN or ZiPS

 

you think baldelli is going to be that guy. fine, i'm not even arguing that. but to say he already is that player is kind of dumb when he clearly is not. nobody is denying that he has the potential to be. but as of right now, he's not. it's all speculation. isn't that what a ceiling is anyways? so basically you're saying that baleddli's ceiling is the same as pie's ceiling, but that baldelli is more likely to reach it. good job

 

but you're meph, so you must be right

[Mephistopheles]

given that those 350 ABs were coming off of 18 months of no baseball and fit perfectly in line with how we would expect a 21 or 22 year old with his level of play at that age and tools develop, it almost completely ensures us more than "just an extended hot streak".

 

 

Fontenot's play is not in line with anything else in his career. Rocco's is. That's a terrible comparison.

[nilodnayr]

Wait so we're arguing over whether Baldelli is what Pie's ceiling is an (oh my!) its a guess?!?!?!?

 

Well, if you know with absolute certainty what one players ceiling is and/or what another players going to produce in 2009, then you my friend should be working for a major league baseball team.

 

I'm sick and tired of people completely dismissing any projection as a guess. Look, they are all guesses, but some are more educated than others. Just dismissing something because it goes against what you think makes you a very ignorant person.

 

And for the record, all peripherals exceed an r-squared of 0.5 at 300 PAs, so while you might think 350 PAs are a small enough sample that you can completely dismiss it, you shouldn't.

[davearm2]

Baldelli has essentially missed the last two years and is now suffering from some rare and difficult-to-identify condition. So to stand up and declare with any degree of certainty what level of production Baldelli is capable of now is pretty foolish in light of the circumstances.

 

Furthermore "when healthy" loses meaning when the definition of "healthy" that applied four years ago is in all likelihood gone forever.

 

It should also bear mentioning that Baldelli's unusual health issues make him somewhat uniquely suited to the AL and DHing. That's not to say that he couldn't play the field, but rather that having no choice but to do so as an NL player would raise the level of uncertainty to another level.

[17 Seconds]

Wait so we're arguing over whether Baldelli is what Pie's ceiling is an (oh my!) its a guess?!?!?!?

 

Well, if you know with absolute certainty what one players ceiling is and/or what another players going to produce in 2009, then you my friend should be working for a major league baseball team.

 

I'm sick and tired of people completely dismissing any projection as a guess. Look, they are all guesses, but some are more educated than others. Just dismissing something because it goes against what you think makes you a very ignorant person.

 

And for the record, all peripherals exceed an r-squared of 0.5 at 300 PAs, so while you might think 350 PAs are a small enough sample that you can completely dismiss it, you shouldn't.

 

What am I dismissing? I'm not guessing what Pie's ceiling, I'm telling you that as of right now, Baldleli hasn't proven that he's the guy that Meph claims he definitely is. I never said that Baldelli can't be that guy or even that it's unreasonable to expect him to be that guy this season. I'm just saying that you can't say he is that guy right now, as if he's already reached and that and proven that he'll be that guy over the course of a full season.

[Mephistopheles]

And for the record, all peripherals exceed an r-squared of 0.5 at 300 PAs, so while you might think 350 PAs are a small enough sample that you can completely dismiss it, you shouldn't.

 

this is how statistics are not to be used.

[SouthSideRyan]

Obligatory JR Towles post.