Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How many rotations have any pitchers better than Peavy or Harden? 10 in all of baseball if we're being generous to them and pessimistic about Peavy's splits? How many of them have two of those guys?

 

Discounting Harden by the odds of injury (not saying he's not a great value at his salary and projected output), I'd say the following teams have duos that I'd say are comparable to Peavy/Harden:

 

Kazmir/Shields

Halladay/Litsch or Marcum

Lee/Sabathia

Lowe/Billingsly

Webb/Haren

 

If you had to pick one of those six duos for a single 2009 season, I don't think Peavy/Harden is a no-brainer choice.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How is that overrating? The chances that at least 1 out of 5 starting pitchers that are all well above average don't surpass that cutoff (a cutoff which isn't even that good for a starting pitcher) is very small. You honestly don't agree with that?

 

So you think the combined odds of Zambrano/Lilly repeating 2008, Peavy's road self being his true self, Harden missing 7-9 starts and Dempster reverting is "very, very small"?

 

Yes, definitely.

 

I marvel at your sustained optimism.

 

We'll just have to wait and see and hope you are right.

[davearm2]

wow, this guy can argue just about anything. a rotation featuring carlos zambrano as its 3rd best starter is not dominant? peavy and harden are legit aces and z and dempster (if he pitches like he did last year) are not too far off being aces as well.

 

Names, names, names. Yes, it's got pretty names. And it's definitely a good rotation if everything goes right. But with an injury problem, a guy with declining peripherals, a home-hero who is losing his favorable park and guy who went from mediocre to awesome quite suddenly at an advanced age, I think the odds of many things going wrong are at least as likely.

 

But you said it "lacks dominance". We would have 5 pitchers who can dominate on any given night. 3 in particular who have some of the best "stuff" in baseball

 

And the chances of none of them having an era under 3.6 and making 25 starts is very, very small.

 

 

We're getting into semantics one "dominance." All pitchers have a chance to be dominant on any given night. I think there's a good chance this rotation lacks any pitchers with dominant 2009 seasons.

 

The fact that you think the 3.6/25 start thing is "very, very small" is exactly the sort of overrating I'm arguing Cubs fans are doing. In terms of sum value, I expect that rotation to be the best in the NL, but it's not going to go down into the annals of history or anything.

Setting aside the semantics of the term "dominant", I'd like to hear how you think that rotation would compare to the rest of MLB last year (I suggest comparing to last year since next year is still very unsettled with so many free agents still unsigned).

 

What teams out there had a better 1 through 5 that could match up with Peavy Z Harden Lilly Dempster?

 

Keep in mind even without Peavy and only a half-year of Harden, there was only one team whose starters posted a lower ERA, by .03 (Toronto 3.72 vs. the Cubs' 3.75).

 

I have a hard time seeing how adding Peavy and the extra half-year of Harden doesn't vault that fivesome decisively to the top.

 

So regardless of which, if any, guys meet the standard of "dominant," there should be no question that it'd be the best collection of 5 in baseball.

[UMFan83]

Instead of looking at 1-5 best rosters, lets look at best 3 from last years rotations and see how they compare against the Cubs assuming they got Peavy:

 

Cubs:

Peavy

Harden

Zambrano

 

Red Sox:

Lester

Matsuzaka

Beckett

 

DBacks:

Webb

Haren

Johnson

 

Rays:

Kazmir

Shields

Garza

 

Brewers:

Sabathia

Sheets

Gallardo (this is hypothetical)

 

Dodgers:

Lowe

Billingsley

Kiroda

 

Mets:

Santana

Pelfrey

Maine?

 

Angels:

Lackey

Saunders

Santana

 

Blue Jays:

Halladay

Marcum

Litsch

 

You're right in that there are several teams on the level of the Cubs, enough that they aren't "clearly" the best 1-3 rotation in baseball, but it stacks up pretty favorably against all the teams there.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I have a hard time seeing how adding Peavy and the extra half-year of Harden doesn't vault that fivesome decisively to the top.

 

I think it's likely that Peavy isn't as good on the road, I think it's likely that Dempster gets significantly worse, and I think it's likely that Harden pitches noticeably less than 148 innings.

 

If we add Peavy and he comes in at the 3.6ish I'm expecting, that should be enough to counteract the other two and leave us about where we were last year, as long as Zambrano doesn't regress.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How many rotations have any pitchers better than Peavy or Harden? 10 in all of baseball if we're being generous to them and pessimistic about Peavy's splits? How many of them have two of those guys?

 

Discounting Harden by the odds of injury (not saying he's not a great value at his salary and projected output), I'd say the following teams have duos that I'd say are comparable to Peavy/Harden:

 

Kazmir/Shields

Halladay/Litsch or Marcum

Lee/Sabathia

Lowe/Billingsly

Webb/Haren

 

If you had to pick one of those six duos for a single 2009 season, I don't think Peavy/Harden is a no-brainer choice.

 

Lowe and Sabathia are free agents, and none of Kazmir, Shields, Litsch, Marcum, Billingsley, or Lowe are as good as either Peavy or Harden. So really the only 1/2 that compares is Arizona, and yet we lack dominance" in that situation?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You're right in that there are several teams on the level of the Cubs, enough that they aren't "clearly" the best 1-3 rotation in baseball, but it stacks up pretty favorably against all the teams there.

 

That's all I'm saying. It's a good rotation that I'd be glad to have if I weren't so ambivalent about the darned team, but I think it's a little more complex than "2008 rotation + Jake Peavy = ZOMG AWESOME ROTATION!"

[UMFan83]

 

 

 

Setting aside the semantics of the term "dominant", I'd like to hear how you think that rotation would compare to the rest of MLB last year (I suggest comparing to last year since next year is still very unsettled with so many free agents still unsigned).

 

What teams out there had a better 1 through 5 that could match up with Peavy Z Harden Lilly Dempster?

 

I don't think Kyle is saying that the Cubs wouldn't have the best 1-5, but that the Cubs wouldn't have as much dominance at the top of the rotation as people here think they would have. Besides, after the last 2 post seasons, who really cares about 1-5 rotations. We can't even get to our 4th starter in the playoffs...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How many rotations have any pitchers better than Peavy or Harden? 10 in all of baseball if we're being generous to them and pessimistic about Peavy's splits? How many of them have two of those guys?

 

Discounting Harden by the odds of injury (not saying he's not a great value at his salary and projected output), I'd say the following teams have duos that I'd say are comparable to Peavy/Harden:

 

Kazmir/Shields

Halladay/Litsch or Marcum

Lee/Sabathia

Lowe/Billingsly

Webb/Haren

 

If you had to pick one of those six duos for a single 2009 season, I don't think Peavy/Harden is a no-brainer choice.

 

Lowe and Sabathia are free agents, and none of Kazmir, Shields, Litsch, Marcum, Billingsley, or Lowe are as good as either Peavy or Harden. So really the only 1/2 that compares is Arizona, and yet we lack dominance" in that situation?

 

Wanna take a 2009 bet on production from Harden vs. Kazmir or Billingsley? Name your (non-monetary) terms and preferred total value stat.

[imb]

You're right in that there are several teams on the level of the Cubs, enough that they aren't "clearly" the best 1-3 rotation in baseball, but it stacks up pretty favorably against all the teams there.

 

That's all I'm saying. It's a good rotation that I'd be glad to have if I weren't so ambivalent about the darned team, but I think it's a little more complex than "2008 rotation + Jake Peavy = ZOMG AWESOME ROTATION!"

 

2008 rotation+no one = awesome rotation

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You're right in that there are several teams on the level of the Cubs, enough that they aren't "clearly" the best 1-3 rotation in baseball, but it stacks up pretty favorably against all the teams there.

 

That's all I'm saying. It's a good rotation that I'd be glad to have if I weren't so ambivalent about the darned team, but I think it's a little more complex than "2008 rotation + Jake Peavy = ZOMG AWESOME ROTATION!"

 

2008 rotation+no one = awesome rotation

 

Unfortunately for Mr.s Harden and Dempster, the calendar won't be reading 2008.

[Mephistopheles]

Why are you discounting Harden? We can throw Zambrano in there and be fine with any duo. Peavy won the pitching VORP title in 2007. Zambrano's consistently in the net 60-70 range.

[imb]

You're right in that there are several teams on the level of the Cubs, enough that they aren't "clearly" the best 1-3 rotation in baseball, but it stacks up pretty favorably against all the teams there.

 

That's all I'm saying. It's a good rotation that I'd be glad to have if I weren't so ambivalent about the darned team, but I think it's a little more complex than "2008 rotation + Jake Peavy = ZOMG AWESOME ROTATION!"

 

2008 rotation+no one = awesome rotation

 

Unfortunately for Mr.s Harden and Dempster, the calendar won't be reading 2008.

 

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

[wade]

 

 

 

Setting aside the semantics of the term "dominant", I'd like to hear how you think that rotation would compare to the rest of MLB last year (I suggest comparing to last year since next year is still very unsettled with so many free agents still unsigned).

 

What teams out there had a better 1 through 5 that could match up with Peavy Z Harden Lilly Dempster?

 

I don't think Kyle is saying that the Cubs wouldn't have the best 1-5, but that the Cubs wouldn't have as much dominance at the top of the rotation as people here think they would have. Besides, after the last 2 post seasons, who really cares about 1-5 rotations. We can't even get to our 4th starter in the playoffs...

 

Well, I care about 1-5 rotation strength, because it really helps you get to the playoffs in the first place.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How many rotations have any pitchers better than Peavy or Harden? 10 in all of baseball if we're being generous to them and pessimistic about Peavy's splits? How many of them have two of those guys?

 

Discounting Harden by the odds of injury (not saying he's not a great value at his salary and projected output), I'd say the following teams have duos that I'd say are comparable to Peavy/Harden:

 

Kazmir/Shields

Halladay/Litsch or Marcum

Lee/Sabathia

Lowe/Billingsly

Webb/Haren

 

If you had to pick one of those six duos for a single 2009 season, I don't think Peavy/Harden is a no-brainer choice.

 

Lowe and Sabathia are free agents, and none of Kazmir, Shields, Litsch, Marcum, Billingsley, or Lowe are as good as either Peavy or Harden. So really the only 1/2 that compares is Arizona, and yet we lack dominance" in that situation?

 

Wanna take a 2009 bet on production from Harden vs. Kazmir or Billingsley? Name your (non-monetary) terms and preferred total value stat.

 

I don't really care about terms, but take a look at their FIP or ERA+ after next season if it means that much to you.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why are you discounting Harden? We can throw Zambrano in there and be fine with any duo. Peavy won the pitching VORP title in 2007. Zambrano's consistently in the net 60-70 range.

 

Because healthy is an ability, and an outlier in health for him is no different than an outlier in performance for Dempster, both must be heavily discounted when making 2009 projections.

 

If we can have 2007 Peavy, great.

 

And what was Zambrano's net last season? I've got him at +36 runs pitching for VORP, did his offense make up the rest?

[Ski]

Why are you discounting Harden? We can throw Zambrano in there and be fine with any duo. Peavy won the pitching VORP title in 2007. Zambrano's consistently in the net 60-70 range.

Is that with hitting or just pitching? What's his pitching+hitting combined VORP?

 

(I just read Baseball Between the numbers: why everything you know about the game is wrong by baseball prospectus, so I'm into sabermetrics now).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

 

The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't really care about terms, but take a look at their FIP or ERA+ after next season if it means that much to you.

 

Those are not total production stats, those are rate stats.

 

If you can promise me that Harden pitches 150+ innings for the Cubs next season, then my opinion of the rotation increases a bit.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

 

The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think".

 

What you call "worst case scenario," I call "reasonable projection."

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't really care about terms, but take a look at their FIP or ERA+ after next season if it means that much to you.

 

Those are not total production stats, those are rate stats.

 

If you can promise me that Harden pitches 150+ innings for the Cubs next season, then my opinion of the rotation increases a bit.

 

Add in Marshall's or Shark's or Gaudin's or whoever's starts in his stead if he gets hurt then.

[imb]

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

 

The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think".

 

What you call "worst case scenario," I call "reasonable projection."

 

did you run these numbers at http://www.erik316prospectus.com?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

 

I think you can count on a about a run to Dempster's ERA and shave 50 innings off Harden's 2008 total.

[imb]

how much regression are we counting on here? i doubt dempster throws up a 4.50 (actually now that I typed that out I'm less confident) and harden is going to be dominant for as many starts as he can make.

 

The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think".

 

What you call "worst case scenario," I call "reasonable projection."

 

did you run these numbers at http://www.erik316prospectus.com?

 

gonna go ahead and toss up an 8.5 on this one

[Guest]

Peavy has better than a strikeout per inning average across his career and has better than a 3-1 K/BB ratio. Those ratios stay pretty consistent in all of his seasons. You can argue that he won't be as homer-proof away from Petco (and be right), but his peripherals all suggest he should still be one of the best pitchers in MLB whether he's in Wrigley or anywhere else.

 

His HR rate isn't the only peripheral that dips on the road.

 

K/IP: .925

BB/IP: 0.363

K/BB: 2.54

 

ALL his peripherals take a big dip outside of San Diego.

Do me a favor and tell me how those rank amongst mlb starters during that timeframe.

 

That's a lot of datamining.

 

Point is, you pointed some thresholds out that I'm pointing out he can't cross on the road.

No...the point is that even his road peripherals are dominant and amongst the best in all of baseball.