Post game discussion

[Irrelevant Dude]

This game was just demoralizing. I was so pumped for today, and now I'm just bummed.

I have a headache that wasn't present at the start of the game...

[Omar]

When that grand slam was hit, I died a little inside.

 

Honestly, I had a lot of confidence in this game. Last year I was a nervous wreck before game 1 and this year I wasn't even worried.

 

And now, I am.

 

Terrible game.

[third eye]

So, statistically speaking, were the odds that the housing market would crap all over itself based on historical precedent.

 

Fairly good.

 

Fair point, actually. Touche. Bad example (though I would debate it if in another thread). But seriously, the issue here is sample size. When you aggregate series, you aren't getting the same data set. The odds in my mind remain the same as flipping a 60% weighted coin heads 3 out of 4 times. It really doesn't mean a whole lot.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I don't know, it's your job to tell us that since you're the one who made the claim.

 

Either way, it's skewed. If the Cubs win tomorrow then the odds dramatically change once again.

 

According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount.

 

The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%.

I'm too tired to figure it out, but I believe there is a problem with your assumption.

[Illini Iceman]

I don't know, it's your job to tell us that since you're the one who made the claim.

 

Either way, it's skewed. If the Cubs win tomorrow then the odds dramatically change once again.

 

According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount.

 

The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%.

 

Odds of one of your posts being worth reading - 0%

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Win tomorrow and it's a whole new series.

 

Odds of winning tomorrow: Maybe 50/50 if we take an optimistic view of homefield advantage. We are down 0-1 and facing a bad pitching matchup.

 

Seriously dude, do you take some joy in coming to this board and being a complete killjoy?

 

I'm here to talk about the Chicago Cubs in as objective a way as possible. I'm sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.

 

We get if from your previous 3900 posts, the Cubs suck, they will never win and anyone that expects them to is delusional. Why don't you go hang out at WSI where people will appreciate your negativity toward this team and not here where everyone groans whenever they see you posting before they even read whatever downer comment you are going to make next. I really don't get why people are fans of things they really don't like. Some of us actually find it more enjoyable to be optimistic and actually root for our team.

 

Were you not here all summer when I said the Cubs were clearly the superior team to the Brewers and would win the division going away? Or in 2006 when I said run differential showed we had a better than 50/50 shot of catching and passing the Brewers?

 

The fact of the matter is that the Cubs' odds of winning the WS, or even advancing out of the first round, took a dramatic nosedive tonight, and there's no reason not to say that.

[USSoccer]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

[17 Seconds]

They rotate umps in the playoffs, right? I Zambrano had to deal with that same guy from tonight it would be pretty ugly.

[17 Seconds]

I don't know, it's your job to tell us that since you're the one who made the claim.

 

Either way, it's skewed. If the Cubs win tomorrow then the odds dramatically change once again.

 

According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount.

 

The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%.

I'm too tired to figure it out, but I believe there is a problem with your assumption.

 

There is, I just don't have the energy or motivation to get into it. I don't really care

[moose]

ideal line up that will never happen ever for tomorrow's game:

 

Fontenot/Theriot

Derosa

Ramirez

Lee

Soriano

Soto

Edmonds/Johnson

Theriot/fontenot

Zambrano

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't know, it's your job to tell us that since you're the one who made the claim.

 

Either way, it's skewed. If the Cubs win tomorrow then the odds dramatically change once again.

 

According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount.

 

The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%.

I'm too tired to figure it out, but I believe there is a problem with your assumption.

 

There is, I just don't have the energy or motivation to get into it. I don't really care

 

I'm sure someone will point it out. Any day now....

 

It's easy to take cheap personal shots and ad hominems. Math is hard.

[Skyballer]

I don't. The odds of us winning it are about the same as the odds of a 3-run come back in the late innings. Possible, but not worth hoping on.

 

That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say.

 

It's also perfectly accurate.

 

If you think that's accurate, then the statement wasn't just stupid, obviously the person typing it is stupid as well.

I know we are all pissed off, so am I. But that was totally uncalled for.

[17 Seconds]

I don't know, it's your job to tell us that since you're the one who made the claim.

 

Either way, it's skewed. If the Cubs win tomorrow then the odds dramatically change once again.

 

According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount.

 

The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%.

I'm too tired to figure it out, but I believe there is a problem with your assumption.

 

There is, I just don't have the energy or motivation to get into it. I don't really care

 

I'm sure someone will point it out. Any day now....

 

It's easy to take cheap personal shots and ad hominems. Math is hard.

 

If the Cubs win tomorrow (which they'll be favored to do) then what are the chances of them advancing?

[big_shooter17]

I don't. The odds of us winning it are about the same as the odds of a 3-run come back in the late innings. Possible, but not worth hoping on.

 

That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say.

 

It's also perfectly accurate.

 

If you think that's accurate, then the statement wasn't just stupid, obviously the person typing it is stupid as well.

I know we are all pissed off, so am I. But that was totally uncalled for.

 

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

 

This is getting way out of hand. Cool it with the personal attacks, please.

 

I've been in the game threads all year. I've been on this board for quite awhile. I've got quite a history of posting positive things about the Cubs when the situations warrant it. I stick to the math, and the math told me the Cubs were winning division titles in 07 and 08 when a lot of people didn't believe it.

 

And like it or not, the math sucks for the team that loses the first game in a five-game series. End of story.

[third eye]

Win tomorrow and it's a whole new series.

 

Odds of winning tomorrow: Maybe 50/50 if we take an optimistic view of homefield advantage. We are down 0-1 and facing a bad pitching matchup.

 

Seriously dude, do you take some joy in coming to this board and being a complete killjoy?

 

I'm here to talk about the Chicago Cubs in as objective a way as possible. I'm sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.

 

We get if from your previous 3900 posts, the Cubs suck, they will never win and anyone that expects them to is delusional. Why don't you go hang out at WSI where people will appreciate your negativity toward this team and not here where everyone groans whenever they see you posting before they even read whatever downer comment you are going to make next. I really don't get why people are fans of things they really don't like. Some of us actually find it more enjoyable to be optimistic and actually root for our team.

 

Were you not here all summer when I said the Cubs were clearly the superior team to the Brewers and would win the division going away? Or in 2006 when I said run differential showed we had a better than 50/50 shot of catching and passing the Brewers?

 

The fact of the matter is that the Cubs' odds of winning the WS, or even advancing out of the first round, took a dramatic nosedive tonight, and there's no reason not to say that.

 

I've actually been on board with most of what you've had to say the last two years. And you've provided good statistical reason to be. We are simply not in a place where the sample size of any of these measures can predict a whole lot. Jumping on or off the optimist/pessimist bandwagon just doesn't really do justice to the logical arguments that preceded the post season. Yes, the better players give you the better chance to win, and being down a game in a short series sucks. I just see very little predictive value in the historical precedents when you aggregate series. It's not the same thing.

[Hall7810]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

I just got back. It wasn't your regular crowd; it was just a bunch of lame people who really didn't seem into the game. Same thing with last year.

[big_shooter17]

 

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

 

This is getting way out of hand. Cool it with the personal attacks, please.

 

I've been in the game threads all year. I've been on this board for quite awhile. I've got quite a history of posting positive things about the Cubs when the situations warrant it. I stick to the math, and the math told me the Cubs were winning division titles in 07 and 08 when a lot of people didn't believe it.

 

And like it or not, the math sucks for the team that loses the first game in a five-game series. End of story.

 

I agree that the odds have decreased, but don't try to say that there is absolutely no hope because, I'm sorry to say it, but it makes you sound foolish.

[bhogg]

Was the crowd just uneasy or do you think maybe a different demographic of fan gets the play off tickets?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I've actually been on board with most of what you've had to say the last two years. And you've provided good statistical reason to be. We are simply not in a place where the sample size of any of these measures can predict a whole lot. Jumping on or off the optimist/pessimist bandwagon just doesn't really do justice to the logical arguments that preceded the post season. Yes, the better players give you the better chance to win, and being down a game in a short series sucks. I just see very little predictive value in the historical precedents when you aggregate series. It's not the same thing.

 

We can wait for THT or BP to do a more detailed analysis, but as I said earlier, math is hard an I can't do that by hand.

 

You are right that we do have a slightly better chance than the average team down 0-1 because we are a superior team to the Dodgers. And while we face a bad matchup tomorrow, we do have three straight pitching matchups that favor us.

 

But the fact of the matter is, the Cubs are not a .750 team in the long run vs. the Dodgers, so there is no reason to expect it now. If we get it, great, but the odds are long.

[Skyballer]

I don't. The odds of us winning it are about the same as the odds of a 3-run come back in the late innings. Possible, but not worth hoping on.

 

That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say.

 

It's also perfectly accurate.

 

If you think that's accurate, then the statement wasn't just stupid, obviously the person typing it is stupid as well.

I know we are all pissed off, so am I. But that was totally uncalled for.

 

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

Is it so hard to believe that maybe an intelligent person is just infuriated over horrible baseball and is simply overreacting. I'm not agreeing with a thing he said but what he posts late at night on a message board after watching his favorite team perform horribly in game one of the playoffs should not and can not determine a man's intelligence.

[USSoccer]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

I just got back. It wasn't your regular crowd; it was just a bunch of lame people who really didn't seem into the game. Same thing with last year.

 

That's awful and embarassing and should not happen in a flipping playoff game.

[Brian]

oh yeah we need the game thread pimp for game 2.

 

desperate times...

[IowaCubsFan]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

I get so sick of hearing arguments like this. We're talking about professional athletes here, not preschoolers playing soccer. If they're really affected that much by the fans being quiet or booing, then frankly they need to find something else to do or somewhere else to play.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

 

This is getting way out of hand. Cool it with the personal attacks, please.

 

I've been in the game threads all year. I've been on this board for quite awhile. I've got quite a history of posting positive things about the Cubs when the situations warrant it. I stick to the math, and the math told me the Cubs were winning division titles in 07 and 08 when a lot of people didn't believe it.

 

And like it or not, the math sucks for the team that loses the first game in a five-game series. End of story.

 

Actually, what I said was "it's not worth hoping on."

 

Given the depression that sets in for most of this board when they finally lose this season, vs. the elation of winning, multiplied by the odds of each happening, I stand by that subjective statement. It certainly wasn't stupid or worth throwing out personal attacks over.

 

I agree that the odds have decreased, but don't try to say that there is absolutely no hope because, I'm sorry to say it, but it makes you sound foolish.