Micah Hoffpauir

[Schwarber Fan]

Tonight, he earned that last playoff spot in my mind

 

2 bombs, 2 hits off a lefty I believe

 

what a night

[chuckywang]

Start him against Milwaukee as well.

[nolanwood]

He sure looked comfortable at the plate tonight.

 

5/5 2R 5RBI

 

1 dong off Pedro, another off Rincon!

[Little Slide Rooter]

Its just 1 game, but in that 1 game, he seemingly did more than Ward did all season, aside from that 1 HR in Florida. Still, hes a better all around player than Ward, but we'll see what happens.

[The Other 15]

It might have been just one game, but it came during a season in which he's been killing the ball whenever it's thrown near the strike zone. I like experience as much as the next guy, but Ward's season has produced exactly one meaningful swing. That shouldn't be enough to keep Micah Hulkpower off the playoff roster.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Ward and he's been among the best at what he does for a long time but it was a simple decision with Soto last season despite only playing about three weeks. This is just as elementary when figuring out who serves more purposes as a LH bat off the bench. The vet was given the entire season to get comfortable, for whatever reasons (let's not discount injuries and age playing major roles), he just hasn't been able to get there.

 

A dialed in player, no matter the experience level, should get the AB's when they matter.

[Cynosure]

This dude better be on the playoff roster over Ward... I've said that since June.

[B]

Will they not both make the roster?

[killthegoat06]

Will they not both make the roster?

no i think 1 or other

[Illini Iceman]

Considering that Piniella has given Ward no starts since the scrub game against the Cardinals I think he may be trying to get an extended look at Hoff to decide whether he wants to keep him over Ward. You would think if he was 100% sold on Ward making the roster he would be giving him more AB's here to sharpen up his swing.

 

If it is a trial of sorts for Hoff he is certainly passing the test.

[erik316wttn]

Have fun golfing, Ward.

[sneakypower]

that doesn't make any sense at all

[Post Count Padder]

I should have changed my name to Hoffpower.

[Derwood]

sample size

[The Other 15]

sample size

 

A legit point. However, which sample size should be studied in this case? Do we use the accumulated effort of a guy who's had a 10 yr career? If so, How much does it matter right now, what Ward produced in 2003, or even 2007?

 

So, since both are likely to see playing time vs RHP, what is the difference between 57 AB to 83? Everyone can look up the numbers difference and see how slanted they are in Hoffs favor. Is that enough to make a statistical based decision? Maybe, I don't know. Where do we place the weight of an additional 290 AB's that Hoffpauir has seen this season when we consider "sample size?" Not to mention the ridiculous numbers those 290 Ab's bore?

 

What of the intangibles? Who's hot right now? I love the idea that Ward is more likely to take a walk in his AB but is that alone worth taking on his anemic performance? Again, I don't know. Who's likely to need a automatic pinch runner, thus burning late extra inning options? Who can play what position? I'm not sure that Hoffpouir completely dominates in these intangibles but he certainly looks healthier.

 

So in sample size, we must consider the timing, players health, players recent performance, and players long term performance. I'm looking up and down these sample sizes and the only ones that make a case for DWard are a year old. Unfortunately it's not 2007 anymore.

[cubsfan26]

I'd be surprised if Lou keeps Ward off the playoff roster. Lou is gonna want a veteran pinch hitter off the bench. I can't see Lou trusting Hoffpauir coming off the bench to get a big hit or walk, with his lack of experience against ML pitching and not having much experience as a pinch hitter. I always felt the last spot was between Pie and Hoffpauir. Pie seemed like he would have a advantage because of his speed and defense. But I think Hoffpauir bat has impressed Lou alot, and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up starting a game or two in RF in the playoffs. With Fukudome being the late inning defensive replacement and pinch hitter/runner.

[Amie]

Micah gets the start against the Brewers tomorrow. Seems Lou was indeed very impressed..

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080925&content_id=3548771&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

[mikeyt34]

I originally based my sole argument of Ward over Hoffpauir in a pinch hitting scenario only. Then it hit me, removing Ward from the roster sets up this scenario.

 

HOFFPAUIR COULD PLAY RIGHT FIELD THROUGHOUT THE POSTSEASON.

 

The concern I have is an outfield of Soriano, Edmonds, and Hoffpauir. Defensively that's a serious liability. A late inning outfield of Pie, Fukudome, and Johnson/Soriano makes me more comfortable for sure, so Lou could move those guys into the outfield late in games, once the Cubs have the lead of course.

The Cubs have won with pitching, patient hitting, and solid defense for most of the year. Part of that formula would be compromised with Micah playing rightfield. Moving Hoffpauir to the outfield might bite them in the bum on a few of occasions, but his bat in the line up could be huge.

Worst case scenario, Hoffpauir is too much of a liability in the outfield and you go back to Fukudome/DeRosa, but you still have Hoffpauir to pinch hit.

Tough call.

 

I know these are Iowa numbers, but look what this kid does against right-handed pitching...

 

AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

vs L .307 75 15 23 5 1 5 21 4 16 0 0 .341 .600 .941

vs R .381 215 48 82 29 1 20 79 13 30 2 0 .411 .805 1.216

 

If you see Micah in RF this weekend, you will know Lou is at least thinking about it.

[17 Seconds]

Why do people think Daryle Ward is so great? He had a great year last year, but that doesn't mean he's good.

 

Career- .263/.321/.447/.767

 

Career as PH- .234/.330/.385/.715

 

Yet I always hear people tout his "experience" as a pinch hitter. If your experience is in sucking, should that really increase your value?

 

Daryle Ward has sucky career pinch hitting numbers, sucky career overall numbers, and sucky 2008 numbers. I don't like the odds of him suddenly finding it in the postseason. I am certainly not one of the Hoffpauir bandwagoners, but he's raked all season no matter where he is. He gives us a better chance of winning than Ward in the playoffs.

[sneakypower]

sample size

ok so perhaps you'd prefer his past 2 seasons worth of ABs in Iowa, 153 games, as a sufficient sample

 

.340/.378/.649

 

58 doubles

41 HR

173 RBI

 

MLE of .901 OPS

[OleMissCub]

sample size

 

A legit point. However, which sample size should be studied in this case? Do we use the accumulated effort of a guy who's had a 10 yr career? If so, How much does it matter right now, what Ward produced in 2003, or even 2007?

 

So, since both are likely to see playing time vs RHP, what is the difference between 57 AB to 83? Everyone can look up the numbers difference and see how slanted they are in Hoffs favor. Is that enough to make a statistical based decision? Maybe, I don't know. Where do we place the weight of an additional 290 AB's that Hoffpauir has seen this season when we consider "sample size?" Not to mention the ridiculous numbers those 290 Ab's bore?

 

What of the intangibles? Who's hot right now? I love the idea that Ward is more likely to take a walk in his AB but is that alone worth taking on his anemic performance? Again, I don't know. Who's likely to need a automatic pinch runner, thus burning late extra inning options? Who can play what position? I'm not sure that Hoffpouir completely dominates in these intangibles but he certainly looks healthier.

 

So in sample size, we must consider the timing, players health, players recent performance, and players long term performance. I'm looking up and down these sample sizes and the only ones that make a case for DWard are a year old. Unfortunately it's not 2007 anymore.

 

Great post. Welcome to the boards.

[mikeyt34]

sample size

ok so perhaps you'd prefer his past 2 seasons worth of ABs in Iowa, 153 games, as a sufficient sample

 

.340/.378/.649

 

58 doubles

41 HR

173 RBI

 

MLE of .901 OPS

 

Umm...that's good right? :shock:

[MasterBlaster]

Lou isn't as attached to veteran players as Dusty Baker was, I hate that people keep cementing Dusty's problem to Piniella all the time. Just because Pie sucks every time he gets playing time and gets sent back down to the minors, doesn't mean Lou hates youngsters. Soto got the starting job last year after limited playing time at the end of the season, and HoffPauir has more than a good chance to get the Playoff roster spot over Ward. This is just a PH role we are talking about, which makes the choice of Hoff even more likely IMO.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Hoff will definitely get a start or 2 vs. the Brewers. That last spot comes down to Hoff and Ward, as Pie will likely get a spot as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

[Jaysus1975]

Hoff > Ward

[Warren Brusstar]

Lou isn't as attached to veteran players as Dusty Baker was, I hate that people keep cementing Dusty's problem to Piniella all the time. Just because Pie sucks every time he gets playing time and gets sent back down to the minors, doesn't mean Lou hates youngsters. Soto got the starting job last year after limited playing time at the end of the season, and HoffPauir has more than a good chance to get the Playoff roster spot over Ward. This is just a PH role we are talking about, which makes the choice of Hoff even more likely IMO.

 

Lou doesn't hate young players if they perform. He just has the patience of 2 year old. 4 games of bad at-bats and they're banished to Des Moines for 2 months.