Magic Numbers - When?

[Bull]

dead

[David]

I think the question is when is it reasonable/worthwhile to start counting down.

 

It seems sort of pointless at 30... lots of things can still happen... but 15-20 has you down to within a couple weeks.

 

That's not going to stop me from counting down now, though.

[Bull]

I think the question is when is it reasonable/worthwhile to start counting down.

 

It seems sort of pointless at 30... lots of things can still happen... but 15-20 has you down to within a couple weeks.

 

That's not going to stop me from counting down now, though.

 

Its more about the relationship of the "number to the remaining games. If the magic number is 18 with with 20 games to play then its too early.

 

If the magic number is 22 with 38 games to play (see Anaheim, Los Angeles Angels of) then go for it.

 

Also if you could go .500 and clinch at any point in the season, then yes.

[bukie]

In my opinion, it's OK to start talking about magic numbers when the first team can be eliminated that day.

 

So, next week sometime pending Washington and Seattle.

[CubInOK]

In my opinion, it's OK to start talking about magic numbers when the first team can be eliminated that day.

 

So, next week sometime pending Washington and Seattle.

Well, Washington has 82 losses now, whatever that means...

[FergieJ31]

I've never liked the whole magic number thing - I like a more tangible (but otherwise equivalent) measure: expected clinch date.

 

If you're looking at the Cubs schedule you easily can do this in your head: take the date of the last game on the schedule and step back one day per games ahead in the loss column, minus one.

 

So right now the ECD vs Milw is Sept 28 - 5 days, or Sept 23.

 

The win last night coupled with the Brewers loss gets the ECD one day closer to that last home stand vs Stl, which would be especially sweet.

 

The ECD is unchanged on days the Cubs & Brewers both lose or both don't lose (maybe because one didn't play), otherwise it ticks forward or backward one day.

[jyoung55]

What was our playoff expectation percentage in 2004 at its highest?

[David]

What was our playoff expectation percentage in 2004 at its highest?

 

Considering we had no shot at the division and only held the lead in the wild card, probably not all that high.

[SouthSideRyan]

What was our playoff expectation percentage in 2004 at its highest?

 

Considering we had no shot at the division and only held the lead in the wild card, probably not all that high.

 

No, it was absurdly high before the collapse. Something like 88%.

[David]

Surprising without the fallback of the extra playoff spot, but I guess it makes sense given how late in the season we had that lead... but still not near as high as 99% with a month and a half to go.

[mul21]

West                     W  L   Pct GB Home  Road  East  Cent  West Streak  L10 
Los Angeles Angels (15) 80 51 .611 -- 40-26 40-25 28-15 21-14 21-14 Won 1  4-6 

x-Clinched Playoff Spot; y-Division Champ; () Magic Number for Division Championship

 

 

 

Don't know how long this has been up, but apparently Yahoo! is counting the Angels' magic number and it's at 15 right now.

[David]

West                     W  L   Pct GB Home  Road  East  Cent  West Streak  L10 
Los Angeles Angels (15) 80 51 .611 -- 40-26 40-25 28-15 21-14 21-14 Won 1  4-6 

x-Clinched Playoff Spot; y-Division Champ; () Magic Number for Division Championship

 

 

 

Don't know how long this has been up, but apparently Yahoo! is counting the Angels' magic number and it's at 15 right now.

 

 

MLB.com has been counting it for a long time.

 

It's the E# column.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

[Banedon]

West                     W  L   Pct GB Home  Road  East  Cent  West Streak  L10 
Los Angeles Angels (15) 80 51 .611 -- 40-26 40-25 28-15 21-14 21-14 Won 1  4-6 

x-Clinched Playoff Spot; y-Division Champ; () Magic Number for Division Championship

 

 

 

Don't know how long this has been up, but apparently Yahoo! is counting the Angels' magic number and it's at 15 right now.

 

 

MLB.com has been counting it for a long time.

 

It's the E# column.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

 

CBS Sportsline has been doing it for a while too.

[jyoung55]

What was our playoff expectation percentage in 2004 at its highest?

 

Considering we had no shot at the division and only held the lead in the wild card, probably not all that high.

 

No, it was absurdly high before the collapse. Something like 88%.

 

That's what I thought and how I try to keep myself from getting too giggly when reading these things. Although it is getting harder and harder considering if we go a lowly 15-14 from here on out, the Brewers have to go 21-9 the rest of the way just to tie us for division lead.

[kujay]

What was our playoff expectation percentage in 2004 at its highest?

 

Considering we had no shot at the division and only held the lead in the wild card, probably not all that high.

 

No, it was absurdly high before the collapse. Something like 88%.

 

That's what I thought and how I try to keep myself from getting too giggly when reading these things. Although it is getting harder and harder considering if we go a lowly 15-14 from here on out, the Brewers have to go 21-9 the rest of the way just to tie us for division lead.

 

Agreed. 25 for division and 21 for playoffs? I'm okay with counting it down now.

[Mizzou]

I understand why people do it, but with the Cubs 5 games up I wish people would just countdown the magic number to clinch the division.

[David]

BTW, I love the fact that the Brewers have been white hot in August and still find themselves a half-game worse (even or a full game after tonight) than they were on 8/1.

 

 

EDITED - n/m on that other part

Edited August 27, 2008 by David

[champaignchris]

What was our playoff expectation percentage in 2004 at its highest?

 

I don't know what they percentage was, but it had to be pretty high.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?date=20040924

 

There's the standings on Sept 24, 2004.

 

We had nine games left against a 20 games under .500 Mets team, an 11 games under .500 Reds team, and a Braves team that should have already clinched by the time we were playing them.

 

If we'd have gone just 5-4, the Giants would have to have gone 6-2 in their last 8 games or the Astros would have to go 7-1 in the same span to force a one game play-off.

 

Of course, we go 2-7, losing to the Mets 4-3 in extra innings (the LaTroy Hawkins game) and 3-2, losing 4-3 and 2-1 to the Reds, both in 12 innings, and then 5-4 and 8-6 to the Braves.

 

Houston, of course, goes 7-1 (the Giants went 5-3). The Cubs should have gone 6-3 against the schedule they were facing. The Astros hot streak shouldn't have even mattered. Even if they'd have managed to win three of the six close games they'd have gotten to the one game play off. Instead, they add another historical bed-crapping to the Cubs long line of bed-crappings.

 

Oh well.

[kujay]

I've seen all the calculations of what MIL needs to do if we go 15-14, 17-12, etc.

 

What I want is for the Cubs to clinch agains the Cards at home. That means they need to pick up 2 more games on the Brewers over the next three weeks.

 

Go to it, guys.

[NCCubFan]

I'm okay with counting it down now.

So am I, as evidenced by my signature.

[Bull]

I'm okay with counting it down now.

So am I, as evidenced by my signature.

 

I wish you'd put "for playoff berth" rather than "for wild card" down there.

 

Assume it a step in the process rather than a goal.

 

But far be it for me to dictate your sig :) I wouldn't have mentioned it if you hadn't.

[biittner77]

I believe Yahoo started the Angels countdown when it reached 20 games- at least that's the 1st number I noticed.

[NCCubFan]

I'm okay with counting it down now.

So am I, as evidenced by my signature.

 

I wish you'd put "for playoff berth" rather than "for wild card" down there.

 

Assume it a step in the process rather than a goal.

 

But far be it for me to dictate your sig :) I wouldn't have mentioned it if you hadn't.

Actually, that does make more sense; I'll change it later tonight when I do my daily update after the Brewers and Cardinals games. They wouldn't really be clinching the wild card when they aren't even in the wild card standings at the time.

[David]

The magic number went down one tonight, guys...