2008/2009 Offseason Free Agents

[javy knows my name]

Philadelphia is not city, I would want to play for had I been a professional athlete.

this is outstanding

[dew1679666265]

My guess:

 

position players:

soriano (lf)

fukudome (rf)

johnson (cf)

pie (cf)

lee (1b)

derosa (2b)

ramirez (3b)

fontenot (if)

cedeno (if)

theriot (ss)

soto ©

F/A or K Hill ©

hoffpauir (1b/of)

 

pitchers:

zambrano (sp)

lilly (sp)

harden (sp)

dempster (sp) ~$33 mil./3 yrs

marshall/hill/samardzija/gaudin (sp)

gaudin (rp?)

marmol (rp)

samardzija (rp?)

guzman (p)

wuertz/ascanio (rp)

cotts (rp)

wood (rp) ~$14 mil./2 yrs

 

Unless the Cubs actually win it all it seems pretty unlikely that they come back next year with essentially the same team except Pie replacing Edmonds as the LH platoon with Johnson in CF. Pie is going to be hard pressed to match the production that Edmonds has given so far so it would mean they go into 2009 with a less potent offense than they have right now. I would think that Hendry will get more creative than this and mix it up to try to upgrade the team if they do wind up falling short.

 

I think the ownership situation and the backloading that Hendry's done will force the status quo. There just isn't room for another big contract unless: a) they let Dempster and/or Wood walk (but those moves leave holes to fill); b) they move a contract or two (Marquis, Lee, Fukudome, or Lilly); or c) new ownership approves a big payroll increase. A trade with Pie, Theriot, and/or Hill as the centerpiece seems the most likely route to an upgrade. Ownership should be settled in plenty of time for a mid season acquisition or two.

 

Take this with a great big Paul Sullivan sized grain of salt:

 

For years, Felix Pie has been touted as the Cubs' center fielder of the future, but there's little doubt Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds will be invited back next season.

 

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-080817-cubs-center-field-edmonds-johnson-pie,1,5287607.story

 

I am getting Gary Gaetti flashbacks.

 

Sounds like pure conjecture to me. He makes no mention of sources or even anything that gives him that idea other than that Edmonds has been really good as a Cub. I think it's Sullivan throwing his opinion into an article.

 

Also, toward the end, Sullivan even says Edmonds' return is "less certain" because he may retire after this season. I'm not too worried.

[craig]

Unless the Cubs actually win it all it seems pretty unlikely that they come back next year with essentially the same team except Pie replacing Edmonds as the LH platoon with Johnson in CF. Pie is going to be hard pressed to match the production that Edmonds has given so far so it would mean they go into 2009 with a less potent offense than they have right now. I would think that Hendry will get more creative than this and mix it up to try to upgrade the team if they do wind up falling short.

 

I agree with Philly, I think they will stay with essentially the same team, minor tinkering.

 

For three reasons.

 

First, if they cruise into the playoffs, but lose a well-played series to a good team who happens to outplay them, I'm not sure that would necessitate much shakeup. Especially if it's a cornerstone guys who lose it for you. If Zambrano loses two games in a short series, ior if Ramirez and Soto don't get any RBI's in a losing series, it's not like we'll be looking to shake things up and replace them.

 

2nd, money. It was estimated elsewhere that even without Johnson, Edmonds, and Blanco, that if we want to retain Dempster and Wood, we'll be up around $140 for next year. And if we spend anything to retain or replaced Johnson, Edmonds, Blanco, Howry, and Eyre, we could be pushing $150. We've got a lot of players who are worth retaining, and a lot of guys who are stable via established and inflating contracts. Barring a Steinbrenner-like owner, it's hard to imagine spending even more to add outside salaried guys.

 

3rd, we don't really need much. Soto, DeRosa, Theriot, Aram, Soriano, those guys have been very productive over the season. No matter what happens in a short series, they won't be replaced. Lee has been pretty good, and has a substantial contract, nothing happening there. Fukudome has a big guaranteed contract, not likely they'll be replacing him either. This isn't like the team last year, where obviously CF and RF were black holes. Or like the 03 Cubs where obviously you wanted to replace Estes. For rotation, Z, Harden, Lilly, and Dempster have all been very good. No matter what might happen in a short series, they won't be looking to shake them up.

 

So basically Marquis and CF are the only starting spots that seem very open. All the other spots have guys who either look to be long-term fixtures (Soto, Theriot, Soriano, etc..), or else are safe via guaranteed and perhaps multiyear contracts (Lee, Fukudome). Marquis, I could see trying to move him and his salary. But even if they do, they'd likely look inside for replacement (Marshall or Samardzija), rather than spending big after Sabbathia or sheets. For CF, I'd think the ideal would be to bring Johnson back for sure (even if Pie did emerge, he absolutely needs a platoon), but hopefully Edmonds at a short-term deal that doesn't cost too much. I'd think that if Edmonds was on a one-year, or a deal with 2nd-year option, they'd like that. If Pie blossoms and Edmonds flops, Pie would get his chance. If Pie stinks, and Edmonds hits great again, you'd be glad. But that might depend on whether we can afford what Edmonds/Johnson would want.

 

A 4th factor, there don't really appear to be any attitude or effort or style guys that need to be replaced or shaken up. By all accounts it's a very good clubhouse. Maybe we wish Soriano wouldn't hack and hope and pose so much, but he's going nowhere.

Last year we weren't that good, but Fukudome was the only noteworthy offseason move, and dumping Jones while committing (again) to Pie. So even the failure to win everything in the playoffs doesn't necessitate large-scale change. So I suspect that if we cruise into the playoffs, and lose a short playoff series to a good team, I don't think that would necessitate much shakeup.

 

Basically I think it will be status quo, with farmboys (Pie, Samardz, Guzman, and also Marshall) in line to try to potentially replace some of the expiring contracts.

[Skyballer]

Assuming our front 4 are Harden/Z/Dempster/Lilly I'd love to see Marshall in a non pressure spot be our number 5 with the numbers of a 3 or 4. I think Marshall is a guy who just trows his fastball and cut-fastball way too much. His money is the curve and he can be a good pitcher at a cheap cost as soon as him Rothschild and Soto figure that out.

[craig]

Assuming our front 4 are Harden/Z/Dempster/Lilly I'd love to see Marshall in a non pressure spot be our number 5 with the numbers of a 3 or 4. I think Marshall is a guy who just trows his fastball and cut-fastball way too much. His money is the curve and he can be a good pitcher at a cheap cost as soon as him Rothschild and Soto figure that out.

 

I agree with that, I expect that if Hendry could well be interested in moving Marquis and replace him with Marshall. Why might they try to trade Marquis? I can think of several possible scenarios.

 

1. They need money to stay under budget while at the same time buying outside talent. Comment: If this is the reason, then they'd only be able to trade him if somebody else takes on much or all of his contract. If you have to eat much of his contract, or accept a comparable contract in return that you maybe don't really have any use for, the motive will be unfulfilled.

 

2. They need money to afford to retain Edmonds, Johnson, and/or Blanco. Same logic as above, will only happen if a trade really does help them dollar-wise.

 

3. They simply want to have Marshall in, either because he's a 2nd lefty, or they just think he's better, or whatever. No financial motivation. Comment: IN this case, a dump trade, in which we pay much/most of his salary, could make sense. Obviously it will be much easier to move Marquis if the receiving team is paying $2-5 instead of $10 on him. Or if the bad salary that we get back in exchange is a reliever/reserve type guy, rather than a guy who's accustomed to starting and will have attitude problems being used little.

 

4. See idea three, only with Samardz as the guy they want to replace him with.

 

5. The motive isn't about money, or about upgrading the staff. But the motive is that they can get somebody they think will be helpful. A lefty reliever? A RH reliever to take the role Howry was intended to fill? If Edmonds is going to cost too much to retain on the short contract we'd like, perhaps a LH CFer assuming that Pie really isn't a big-league player. It's an old idea, but Marquis for Crisp, for example.

 

6. The motive isn't about money, but about attitude. Not sure there'd be any such motive, but it's possible that Marquis isn't the most coachable and enjoyable guy to have around. Not likely, but you never know.

 

Summary: Some of those motives might apply, but will anybody trade for him such that our motive is satisfied? Can you get somebody back who would help us more than Marquis? (Motive 5) Can you get somebody to make a trade such that they are taking on significant boost in salary and we are getting significant payroll relief? (Motives 1 and 2)? Very questionable.

 

In the absence of finding an eager trade partner, I expect they'll keep him. Pitchers get injured, even if Cubs have been spared this year and last. If you dump Marquis, then Marshall, Rich Hill, and Samardzija stand as pitchers 5, 6, and 7 in whichever order. Assuming that Hill is wildman, and that they want Samardz in relief, they may not want to go so thin on rotation pitching. I'd think it would be much easier, if nobody will make a good trade for Marquis, to just keep him. Keep Marshall as an emergency/utility pitcher. Hope that Hill comes back, but if he does it's a surprise treat, not something that you need. Be free to let Samardz polish his rotation pitching in Iowa, or to reinforce a hard-throwing bullpen (Wood, Marquis, Sam, Guzman could give you some pretty good velocity, and with Gaudin might be a real force.)

 

Unless he's really a clubhouse cancer (which I don't think is true and have no reason to suspect), and unless there is more market for the man than I expect, I think he's back.

[CubFanPhilly]

A nice analysis Craig.

 

I think Marquis is moved early in the offseason and No. 2 is the motive. I think Marquis can be moved if the Cubs pick up $3-5 mil. That frees up $5-7 mil. for re-signing some combination of Johnson, Edmonds, and Blanco (with Johnson and Blanco being the most likely choices).

 

Other scenarios:

1. Some combination of Pie/Hill/Veal traded for a RF, moving Fukudome to CF with Johnson re-signed as the 4th OF and Derosa & Hoffpauir filling the role of 5th OF.

 

2. Pie traded for a LH CF to platoon with Johnson.

 

3. A Pie/Johnson platoon with a plan for a mid-season acquisition of a corner OF or CF if Pie fails.

[Backtobanks]

A nice analysis Craig.

 

I think Marquis is moved early in the offseason and No. 2 is the motive. I think Marquis can be moved if the Cubs pick up $3-5 mil. That frees up $5-7 mil. for re-signing some combination of Johnson, Edmonds, and Blanco (with Johnson and Blanco being the most likely choices).

 

Other scenarios:

1. Some combination of Pie/Hill/Veal traded for a RF, moving Fukudome to CF with Johnson re-signed as the 4th OF and Derosa & Hoffpauir filling the role of 5th OF.

 

2. Pie traded for a LH CF to platoon with Johnson.

 

3. A Pie/Johnson platoon with a plan for a mid-season acquisition of a corner OF or CF if Pie fails.

 

Yeah, I think it's time to "fish or cut bait" with Pie. He's still young, but he needs to step up and show he's ready to hit in the majors. There will be a lot of pressure on Pie to perform or Hendry to make a deal to keep the Cubs in the playoff mode for 2009 and beyond. Unless Fukudome gets back to hitting, I can't picture the Cubs going with 2 defensive OFs (Pie and Fukudome) for 2009.

[CuseCubFan69]

How is Pie doing after the Cubs sent him down? Has he taken a new approach to hitting and learned or has he gone back to the way he was?

[shnsajax]

When does Carlos Pena become too expensive for Tampa?

[TruffleShuffle]

When does Carlos Pena become too expensive for Tampa?

 

maybe after his contract is up in 2010

[Tracer Bullet]

When does Carlos Pena become too expensive for Tampa?

 

maybe after his contract is up in 2010

 

If they suck in '09 or '10, they might be willing to trade him to get rid of the $10m he's owed in 2010.

[Vanilla Ice]

When does Carlos Pena become too expensive for Tampa?

 

maybe after his contract is up in 2010

 

If they suck in '09 or '10, they might be willing to trade him to get rid of the $10m he's owed in 2010.

But, Tampa is not going to suck in '09 or '10.

[anabiono]

When does Carlos Pena become too expensive for Tampa?

 

maybe after his contract is up in 2010

 

If they suck in '09 or '10, they might be willing to trade him to get rid of the $10m he's owed in 2010.

But, Tampa is not going to suck in '09 or '10.

 

nope, they are going to be scary good next year...especially if they make a few needed moves

 

um...why in the world would you want pena?

[muntjack]

Doesn't anyone think getting Samardzjia in the rotation is one of Hendry's top priorities? He has been aggressively promoted, is cost-effective and has a higher ceiling than Marshall.

 

My guess is Marquis is traded, Marshall is moved in a deal for a CF and Shark is given the #5 spot.

[RedFlash]

Doesn't anyone think getting Samardzjia in the rotation is one of Hendry's top priorities? He has been aggressively promoted, is cost-effective and has a higher ceiling than Marshall.

 

My guess is Marquis is traded, Marshall is moved in a deal for a CF and Shark is given the #5 spot.

 

Marquis won't be the only started moved. I believe Lilly will also be dealt (Yankees, perhaps?). This way Shark replaces Marquis, and Hill or Marshall battles it out to replace Lilly.

[shnsajax]

Doesn't anyone think getting Samardzjia in the rotation is one of Hendry's top priorities? He has been aggressively promoted, is cost-effective and has a higher ceiling than Marshall.

 

My guess is Marquis is traded, Marshall is moved in a deal for a CF and Shark is given the #5 spot.

 

Marquis won't be the only started moved. I believe Lilly will also be dealt (Yankees, perhaps?). This way Shark replaces Marquis, and Hill or Marshall battles it out to replace Lilly.

 

This would be a disaster waiting to happen. Why downgrade a very big strength for two very unknowns. Not to mention you have already weakened the pen by taking Samardzija out. If you want to let people battle for #5 that's fine, but not 4 and 5. There is zero reason to trade Lilly unless you resign Dempster and bring in CC.

[Tracer Bullet]

When does Carlos Pena become too expensive for Tampa?

 

maybe after his contract is up in 2010

 

If they suck in '09 or '10, they might be willing to trade him to get rid of the $10m he's owed in 2010.

But, Tampa is not going to suck in '09 or '10.

 

nope, they are going to be scary good next year...especially if they make a few needed moves

 

um...why in the world would you want pena?

 

Sure, they might win a ton of games next year. But they're competing with the Sox and Yankees (not to mention Balt and BJays). They can not suck and still not make the playoffs.

 

And I wasn't suggesting we get Pena, I was just throwing in my 2 cents. But someone might want him b/c he mashes RHP.

[nilodnayr]

Doesn't anyone think getting Samardzjia in the rotation is one of Hendry's top priorities? He has been aggressively promoted, is cost-effective and has a higher ceiling than Marshall.

 

My guess is Marquis is traded, Marshall is moved in a deal for a CF and Shark is given the #5 spot.

 

Marquis won't be the only started moved. I believe Lilly will also be dealt (Yankees, perhaps?). This way Shark replaces Marquis, and Hill or Marshall battles it out to replace Lilly.

 

This would be a disaster waiting to happen. Why downgrade a very big strength for two very unknowns. Not to mention you have already weakened the pen by taking Samardzija out. If you want to let people battle for #5 that's fine, but not 4 and 5. There is zero reason to trade Lilly unless you resign Dempster and bring in CC.

 

Possibly money. Lilly is due for a 5M raise next year.

[nilodnayr]

I think this team needs to move Kosuke over to CF and acquire a RF slugger. We can't count on Theriot repeating this year (BA driven production tends to fluctuate), the CF rabbit that we pulled out of a hat ain't gonna happen again next year. We don't NEED more offense, but with our glut in the rotation, we can upgrade somewhere.

 

My wishlist in this order:

 

Chipper: Still an amazing amazing hitter posting well over 400 wOBAs. Health is a concern. Rumblings are he might be too expensive for the Braves next year and he wants to play for a winner, not a rebuilding team. Could we convince him to move back to the OF? Hes probably not looking for a long term contract.

Manny: A step behind Chipper at the plate. Bad defensively, but not as bad as everyone thinks. We'd have to deal with Manny being Manny and he'd want boku bucks for a longer term.

Dunn: A step behind Manny at the plate and maybe even defensively, but hes a lefty. Hes by far the youngest desireable FA of the group. Underrated by most of baseball, will probably want long term expensive contract.

Burrell: Quietly pretty close to Dunn offensively and unfortunately defensively. Honky Carlos Lee?

Giles: Awesome outside of Petco. Would be the cheapest and require the shortest contract. But has blocked trades out of SD before. Would he retire if SD buys him out?

Abreu: Currently performing what we hoped Fukudome would do. Defense has slipped. Won't require a lot of years, but will be expensive.

[imb]

Burrell: Quietly pretty close to Dunn offensively and unfortunately defensively. Honky Carlos Lee?

 

if anyone was against a burrell trade before, they shouldn't be after this

[nilodnayr]

Burrell: Quietly pretty close to Dunn offensively and unfortunately defensively. Honky Carlos Lee?

 

if anyone was against a burrell trade before, they shouldn't be after this

 

Double slash stats

 

Player A:

2005: 389/504

2006: 383/502

2007: 400/502

2008: 378/533

 

Player B

2005: 387/540

2006: 354/490

2007: 386/554

2008: 387/521

[CuseCubFan69]

I think this team needs to move Kosuke over to CF and acquire a RF slugger. We can't count on Theriot repeating this year (BA driven production tends to fluctuate), the CF rabbit that we pulled out of a hat ain't gonna happen again next year. We don't NEED more offense, but with our glut in the rotation, we can upgrade somewhere.

 

My wishlist in this order:

 

Chipper: Still an amazing amazing hitter posting well over 400 wOBAs. Health is a concern. Rumblings are he might be too expensive for the Braves next year and he wants to play for a winner, not a rebuilding team. Could we convince him to move back to the OF? Hes probably not looking for a long term contract.

Manny: A step behind Chipper at the plate. Bad defensively, but not as bad as everyone thinks. We'd have to deal with Manny being Manny and he'd want boku bucks for a longer term.

Dunn: A step behind Manny at the plate and maybe even defensively, but hes a lefty. Hes by far the youngest desireable FA of the group. Underrated by most of baseball, will probably want long term expensive contract.

Burrell: Quietly pretty close to Dunn offensively and unfortunately defensively. Honky Carlos Lee?

Giles: Awesome outside of Petco. Would be the cheapest and require the shortest contract. But has blocked trades out of SD before. Would he retire if SD buys him out?

Abreu: Currently performing what we hoped Fukudome would do. Defense has slipped. Won't require a lot of years, but will be expensive.

 

I wonder if Detroit would want to move their RF?

[Backtobanks]

I think this team needs to move Kosuke over to CF and acquire a RF slugger. We can't count on Theriot repeating this year (BA driven production tends to fluctuate), the CF rabbit that we pulled out of a hat ain't gonna happen again next year. We don't NEED more offense, but with our glut in the rotation, we can upgrade somewhere.

 

My wishlist in this order:

 

Chipper: Still an amazing amazing hitter posting well over 400 wOBAs. Health is a concern. Rumblings are he might be too expensive for the Braves next year and he wants to play for a winner, not a rebuilding team. Could we convince him to move back to the OF? Hes probably not looking for a long term contract.

Manny: A step behind Chipper at the plate. Bad defensively, but not as bad as everyone thinks. We'd have to deal with Manny being Manny and he'd want boku bucks for a longer term.

Dunn: A step behind Manny at the plate and maybe even defensively, but hes a lefty. Hes by far the youngest desireable FA of the group. Underrated by most of baseball, will probably want long term expensive contract.

Burrell: Quietly pretty close to Dunn offensively and unfortunately defensively. Honky Carlos Lee?

Giles: Awesome outside of Petco. Would be the cheapest and require the shortest contract. But has blocked trades out of SD before. Would he retire if SD buys him out?

Abreu: Currently performing what we hoped Fukudome would do. Defense has slipped. Won't require a lot of years, but will be expensive.

 

I wonder if Detroit would want to move their RF?

 

I have seen Magglio's name mentioned as a possible trade candidate because of his salary and the Tiger's pitching woes.

[imb]

Burrell: Quietly pretty close to Dunn offensively and unfortunately defensively. Honky Carlos Lee?

 

if anyone was against a burrell trade before, they shouldn't be after this

 

Double slash stats

 

Player A:

2005: 389/504

2006: 383/502

2007: 400/502

2008: 378/533

 

Player B

2005: 387/540

2006: 354/490

2007: 386/554

2008: 387/521

 

i was more referring to how great it would be to call him the honky carlos lee every day

[nilodnayr]

I think this team needs to move Kosuke over to CF and acquire a RF slugger. We can't count on Theriot repeating this year (BA driven production tends to fluctuate), the CF rabbit that we pulled out of a hat ain't gonna happen again next year. We don't NEED more offense, but with our glut in the rotation, we can upgrade somewhere.

 

My wishlist in this order:

 

Chipper: Still an amazing amazing hitter posting well over 400 wOBAs. Health is a concern. Rumblings are he might be too expensive for the Braves next year and he wants to play for a winner, not a rebuilding team. Could we convince him to move back to the OF? Hes probably not looking for a long term contract.

Manny: A step behind Chipper at the plate. Bad defensively, but not as bad as everyone thinks. We'd have to deal with Manny being Manny and he'd want boku bucks for a longer term.

Dunn: A step behind Manny at the plate and maybe even defensively, but hes a lefty. Hes by far the youngest desireable FA of the group. Underrated by most of baseball, will probably want long term expensive contract.

Burrell: Quietly pretty close to Dunn offensively and unfortunately defensively. Honky Carlos Lee?

Giles: Awesome outside of Petco. Would be the cheapest and require the shortest contract. But has blocked trades out of SD before. Would he retire if SD buys him out?

Abreu: Currently performing what we hoped Fukudome would do. Defense has slipped. Won't require a lot of years, but will be expensive.

 

I wonder if Detroit would want to move their RF?

 

I have seen Magglio's name mentioned as a possible trade candidate because of his salary and the Tiger's pitching woes.

 

I only focused on FA's but if we expand it to possible trade targets, Maggs, Holliday, Hawpe, and Beltran fall into the discussion. I purposefully left Ibanez out of the original FA list, but for completeness you can count him in too.