Will the Brewers make the playoffs?

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Yeah, I didn't realize the Angels were up 11.5 games. How the hell can you have them as lower than 95% chance to win the division??

 

My AL random ass guesses

 

ALE: Boston 43%, Tampa 36%, New York 21%

ALC: Minnesota 40%, Chicago 38%, Detroit 22%

ALW: Anaheim 100%

Wild Card: New York 40%, Boston 35%, Tampa 20%, Chicago 4%, Minnesota 1%

 

I'm interested to know why you put the odds of the wild card coming out of the east at 95%. As it stands, the two teams atop the AL Central are 1.5 games out of the wild card. I think it goes to either Boston or Tampa, but I'm not sure I understand how the Yankees have the highest likelihood to win the Wild Card, but third highest likelihood of winning their own division.

[SouthSideRyan]

I have 95% for the East because I think those 3 teams are clearly superior to their Central counterparts.

 

The Yankees have the highest odds of winning the wild card because they have the lowest odds of winning the division, thus the most opportunity to finish in 2nd and win the wild card.

[Keener98]

5% is about the chance I'd give the Cardinals of winning the division while both the Brewers AND Cubs spiral out of the playoff picture completely, not simply making the playoffs. Unlikely.

 

Since when is .5 games back of the Wild card grounds for saying that they have a 95% chance of not overtaking that team and remaining above the others?

 

I'm tired of everyone picking and choosing when recent stats are significant and when they are not.

 

Example arguments from this very board:

The Cards have been playing near .500 baseball recently so that will obviously continue and they will miss the playoffs. But on the other hand, Ludwick's recent success is only a fluke and there is no way he can keep up the pace he has been setting this year. A little bit hypocritical maybe?

 

The Cards are 5.5 games back of the Cubs and .5 out of the wild card. 5% of making the playoffs? Keep dreaming. If thats the case around here I give the Cubs a 1% chance of winning the world series, just look at the trend in the most recent 100 years... How does your own medicine taste?

 

Nobody here in STL or CoMo is claiming that the Cubs aren't talented, not favorites to win the division or that the Cards are guaranteed a playoff spot. Be realistic, there is a lot of baseball left to be played.

 

Let me ask you a question, when was the last time the Cards won a series vs somebody above .500? Heres a hint, its before the last Cubs Cards series. STL has beaten the teams like the Pirates, Padres, Royals, and Atlanta, but they cant compete in a 3 game series with teams above .500. That to me is the biggest reason for Cubs fans and others to believe that Stl will fade away. The bullpen in Stl is a complete joke, and having Carp in the rotation is only going to enhance the bullpen problem as its very unlikely he goes deep into games anytime soon.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I have 95% for the East because I think those 3 teams are clearly superior to their Central counterparts.

 

The Yankees have the highest odds of winning the wild card because they have the lowest odds of winning the division, thus the most opportunity to finish in 2nd and win the wild card.

 

I think I might be missing something here, but I guess I just don't understand how the Yankees have a lower percentage of winning the division than the Rays, but a higher percentage of making the playoffs.

[CubinNY]

I have 95% for the East because I think those 3 teams are clearly superior to their Central counterparts.

 

The Yankees have the highest odds of winning the wild card because they have the lowest odds of winning the division, thus the most opportunity to finish in 2nd and win the wild card.

That doesn't really make much sense.

 

Whomever finishes in second has the highest odds of winning the WC. The Yankees clearly don't have the highest odds of finishing second, Boston or TB do.

[SouthSideRyan]

I have 95% for the East because I think those 3 teams are clearly superior to their Central counterparts.

 

The Yankees have the highest odds of winning the wild card because they have the lowest odds of winning the division, thus the most opportunity to finish in 2nd and win the wild card.

That doesn't really make much sense.

 

Whomever finishes in second has the highest odds of winning the WC. The Yankees clearly don't have the highest odds of finishing second, Boston or TB do.

 

Right off the bat the Red Sox can only win the wild card 57% of the time and the Rays 64% while the Yankees can win it 79% of the time. It's also, as I said multiple times, random ass guesses, not a simulation of the remainder of the season, just my opinions on the teams. Basically I've got the Rays winning the wild card ~1/3 of the time they don't win the division, the Yankees ~1/2 the time they don't win, and the Red Sox ~2/3 they don't win. I know it seems like I'm slagging the Rays here, but the Yankees are a better team now than they were 2 months ago.(Depending on Joba's shoulder) I think the Red Sox are too. I really think it'll be a close race between the 3 of them, and it's probably more my pessimistic side(it exists UM) that has the Red Sox and Yankees back in the playoffs again.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Using Birdinal's argument of history, I fully expect a Cardinal pitcher to die either this year or next. It's pretty much a sure thing.

[Keener98]

Using Birdinal's argument of history, I fully expect a Cardinal pitcher to die either this year or next. It's pretty much a sure thing.

 

:lol:

[loukycub]

i think the wild card is coming out of the west this year in the national league. a few reasons:

 

1. i think that the top three teams in the east are worse than the top two teams in the central. the phils, mets, and marlins are all going to be beating up on each other. i think that unless either one of those teams has some sort epic run where they run away from the other, there may be only a gain of maybe a game on either the brewers or cardinals collectively from any of those east teams.

 

2. the brewers are imploding (courtesy a 4 game sweep in milwaukee where the brewers were really competitive in the first game) and st. louis has been lucky, like really lucky, this season. the injuries and the bullpen is coming back to haunt. had milwaukee not lost to the reds (and in the way they lost to them) i definitely say milwaukee's in. as it is now, i think that st. louis is going to finish the season second in the division.

 

3. the west is really weak and the tallest two midgets are the d-backs and dodgers. i don't think that either of those two teams are better than milwaukee or st. louis but they have the pathetic west to feast on. arizona and los angeles are 3 and 4 games behind milwaukee in the loss column. as mediocre as they both are, i think there enough wins out west to overcome the teams in the east.

[CubinNY]

i think the wild card is coming out of the west this year in the national league. a few reasons:

 

1. i think that the top three teams in the east are worse than the top two teams in the central. the phils, mets, and marlins are all going to be beating up on each other. i think that unless either one of those teams has some sort epic run where they run away from the other, there may be only a gain of maybe a game on either the brewers or cardinals collectively from any of those east teams.

 

2. the brewers are imploding (courtesy a 4 game sweep in milwaukee where the brewers were really competitive in the first game) and st. louis has been lucky, like really lucky, this season. the injuries and the bullpen is coming back to haunt. had milwaukee not lost to the reds (and in the way they lost to them) i definitely say milwaukee's in. as it is now, i think that st. louis is going to finish the season second in the division.

 

3. the west is really weak and the tallest two midgets are the d-backs and dodgers. i don't think that either of those two teams are better than milwaukee or st. louis but they have the pathetic west to feast on. arizona and los angeles are 3 and 4 games behind milwaukee in the loss column. as mediocre as they both are, i think there enough wins out west to overcome the teams in the east.

That's crazy talk.

 

The Dodgers are 5 games and 4 teams back. The next closest has a worse record than the Pittsburgh Pirates, yeah those guys.