Chris Duncan: the dust has worn off

[Derwood]

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Chris Duncan has been diagnosed with a herniated disk.

Duncan was originally diagnosed with a bulging disk, but a herniated disk is much more serious and could very well require season-ending surgery. The paper says the Cardinals are "increasingly concerned" about his return to the lineup this season.

[MasterBlaster]

I wonder who the lucky bum is that will replace him in that awesome bum lineup.

[cubbyvirus00]

no more pixie dust??!?

[TruffleShuffle]

joe mather is gonna go on a tear

[illiniguy]

joe mather is gonna go on a tear

Just jacked a 3 run bomb off of cole hamels.

[Andy]

At the time I thought it was ridiculous that Chris Duncan, a 26 year old career minor leaguer, came up and started raking for the Cardinals.

 

Since then they've had a pitcher start slugging the hell out of the ball and a 30 year old career minor leaguer come up and be even better than Duncan ever was, and suddenly I find myself wishing every Cardinal was as successful as Conjoined Fetus Left Fielder.

[wolf stansson]

The dust wore off and settled comfortably on Ryan Ludwick.

[Cubbies622]

Chris Duncan will undergo surgery on his herniated cervical disk on Monday, ending his season.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that "according to a specialist familiar with disk cases, such a condition 'has to be' considered career threatening." He'll have a prosthetic disk put in his back, and the recovery time is 3-6 weeks, but the team is more concerned about his long-term future and won't have him play again this season. He's reportedly been dealing with the back pain all season, which helps explain his struggles.

 

There might be a chance his career is over. Even though hes a Cardinal I still hope he can return healthy next year and wish him the best of luck.

[illiniguy]

At the time I thought it was ridiculous that Chris Duncan, a 26 year old career minor leaguer, came up and started raking for the Cardinals.

 

Since then they've had a pitcher start slugging the hell out of the ball and a 30 year old career minor leaguer come up and be even better than Duncan ever was, and suddenly I find myself wishing every Cardinal was as successful as Conjoined Fetus Left Fielder.

When is the last time we had an outfielder, not named Sosa, put up an OPS as high as the reject that is Ludwick? Hack Wilson?

[CubColtPacer]

At the time I thought it was ridiculous that Chris Duncan, a 26 year old career minor leaguer, came up and started raking for the Cardinals.

 

Since then they've had a pitcher start slugging the hell out of the ball and a 30 year old career minor leaguer come up and be even better than Duncan ever was, and suddenly I find myself wishing every Cardinal was as successful as Conjoined Fetus Left Fielder.

When is the last time we had an outfielder, not named Sosa, put up an OPS as high as the reject that is Ludwick? Hack Wilson?

 

He isn't quite up to Ludwick's numbers, but here is the Cubs version:

 

Jerry Mumphrey. He never had higher than an .813 OPS in any season over a long major league career, and then suddenly busted out to the tune of a .934 OPS.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mumphje01.shtml

 

The only other OF I saw match Ludwick's numbers (besides Sosa) from 1987-present was Glenallen Hill over the final 2 months in 1998.

 

Leon Durham put up a 151 OPS+ (Ludwick's is 155) for the Cubs in 1982.

 

To find a person who actually beat Ludwick in straight OPS, you'd have to go back to Billy Williams and 1972. He had a 1.004 OPS and a 172 OPS+.

[illiniguy]

At the time I thought it was ridiculous that Chris Duncan, a 26 year old career minor leaguer, came up and started raking for the Cardinals.

 

Since then they've had a pitcher start slugging the hell out of the ball and a 30 year old career minor leaguer come up and be even better than Duncan ever was, and suddenly I find myself wishing every Cardinal was as successful as Conjoined Fetus Left Fielder.

When is the last time we had an outfielder, not named Sosa, put up an OPS as high as the reject that is Ludwick? Hack Wilson?

 

He isn't quite up to Ludwick's numbers, but here is the Cubs version:

 

Jerry Mumphrey. He never had higher than an .813 OPS in any season over a long major league career, and then suddenly busted out to the tune of a .934 OPS.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mumphje01.shtml

 

The only other OF I saw match Ludwick's numbers (besides Sosa) from 1987-present was Glenallen Hill over the final 2 months in 1998.

 

Leon Durham put up a 151 OPS+ (Ludwick's is 155) for the Cubs in 1982.

 

To find a person who actually beat Ludwick in straight OPS, you'd have to go back to Billy Williams and 1972. He had a 1.004 OPS and a 172 OPS+.

Yep, that's what I figured. I thought it would have to be Billy Williams. I would be shocked, but then again they are the Cardinals.

[NonProfitCow]

Yeah, there's no way that Ludwick might actually be a good player. It's not like he was OPSing .900+ in AAA at 23 or anything.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, there's no way that Ludwick might actually be a good player. It's not like he was OPSing .900+ in AAA at 23 or anything.

 

good thing you're not ignoring the next 6 years of his career, because that would look awfully ridiculous.

[NonProfitCow]

Yeah, there's no way that Ludwick might actually be a good player. It's not like he was OPSing .900+ in AAA at 23 or anything.

 

good thing you're not ignoring the next 6 years of his career, because that would look awfully ridiculous.

Yeah, the .927, .830 (injury shortened), .602 (injury shortened), .848, 1.022 years were weak.

[Guest]

Ludwick is a former second round pick who was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball (when he had made it to AAA) before the injuries struck. It's not THAT surprising he's doing well after recovering from the injuries.

 

Anything Ankiel has done has been a much bigger surprise to me.

[NonProfitCow]

Ludwick is a former second round pick who was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball (when he had made it to AAA) before the injuries struck. It's not THAT surprising he's doing well after recovering from the injuries.

 

Anything Ankiel has done has been a much bigger surprise to me.

You're over thinking things Raisin. He's a Cardinal.

[TruffleShuffle]

Ludwick is a former second round pick who was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball (when he had made it to AAA) before the injuries struck. It's not THAT surprising he's doing well after recovering from the injuries.

 

he was a good prospect, not a guy who profiled as one of the top ten hitters in baseball. and pitchers were really exploiting holes in his swing when he was up with oakland and texas.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, there's no way that Ludwick might actually be a good player. It's not like he was OPSing .900+ in AAA at 23 or anything.

 

good thing you're not ignoring the next 6 years of his career, because that would look awfully ridiculous.

Yeah, the .927, .830 (injury shortened), .602 (injury shortened), .848, 1.022 years were weak.

 

note that his highest two OPS seasons have come at age 29 in AAA and age 30 at the major league level - both of which happened after he joined the cardinal organization. he profiled as a hitter like jose guillen, not manny ramirez.

[NonProfitCow]

Yeah, there's no way that Ludwick might actually be a good player. It's not like he was OPSing .900+ in AAA at 23 or anything.

 

good thing you're not ignoring the next 6 years of his career, because that would look awfully ridiculous.

Yeah, the .927, .830 (injury shortened), .602 (injury shortened), .848, 1.022 years were weak.

 

note that his highest two OPS seasons have come at age 29 in AAA and age 30 at the major league level - both of which happened after he joined the cardinal organization. he profiled as a hitter like jose guillen, not manny ramirez.

Even Jose Guillen had a .900+ OPS season, and you're a year off on his ages.

[illiniguy]

Yeah, there's no way that Ludwick might actually be a good player. It's not like he was OPSing .900+ in AAA at 23 or anything.

 

good thing you're not ignoring the next 6 years of his career, because that would look awfully ridiculous.

Yeah, the .927, .830 (injury shortened), .602 (injury shortened), .848, 1.022 years were weak.

 

note that his highest two OPS seasons have come at age 29 in AAA and age 30 at the major league level - both of which happened after he joined the cardinal organization. he profiled as a hitter like jose guillen, not manny ramirez.

Even Jose Guillen had a .900+ OPS season, and you're a year off on his ages.

Guillen cheated too, although never served his suspension. I think they really wanted to punish him and made him play for the Royals.

[Soul]

Well, now that Duncan's out for the year and his inevitable collapse into oblivion is complete, I'd say Ryan Ludwick's place at the "Cinderella, the clock is striking midnight" table is ready.

[Amie]

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Chris Duncan has been diagnosed with a herniated disk.

Duncan was originally diagnosed with a bulging disk, but a herniated disk is much more serious and could very well require season-ending surgery. The paper says the Cardinals are "increasingly concerned" about his return to the lineup this season.

 

 

Heck he'll be lucky if he ever plays again. He is having artificial disc replacement surgery, according the most recent article in the Post -Dispatch. Hopefully it will work out for him, but playing BB, or any contact sport is a real risk with this surgery.

 

I had to have a spinal fusion myself, and have some limitation because of that. Including a long list of things I should not be doing.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/5FAE5F73BAED18598625749A000AEDAD?OpenDocument

[RedFlash]

Don't sweat it guys there is another Duncan (Shelly, Chris' brother, I believe)that the Cards will eventually get that will take over. Don't worry about it.

[RedVerbs]

Ludwick is a former second round pick who was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball (when he had made it to AAA) before the injuries struck. It's not THAT surprising he's doing well after recovering from the injuries.

 

he was a good prospect, not a guy who profiled as one of the top ten hitters in baseball. and pitchers were really exploiting holes in his swing when he was up with oakland and texas.

 

That pretty irrelevant. A lot of players turn out to be a lot better or a lot worse than they were projected to be. What matters isn't projections but actual performance and possibility of maintaining said performance. Nothing about Ludwick's stats suggest this to be a one year fluke. Even with Duncan, his stats showed a lot of holes and potential decline. Ludwick's lack of history of performing well is not like Duncan. Duncan never was a good minor league player, Ludwick was excellent in the triple A at age 23. Ludwick would've been a known entity had it not been for all the injuries he sustained over the years.

 

I'm not saying Ludwick now will turn into a perennial all-star, but he seems like he can maintain this level performance over the next couple of seasons. There's really no luck involved with his results.

[haltz]

There's no way that Ludwick continues at this pace (160 OPS+) for the next few years. For one, his LD% is entirely unsustainable which means he's not a .300 hitter going forward. Nothing in his track record suggests that he will be. Also, .300 ISO guys are very few and far between. Ten players in the history of the game have done that in their age 29-31 seasons. Ruth, Sosa, Mantle, Schmidt, Thome, Ortiz, Foxx, Walker, and Bonds. This is extremely unlikely.

 

His in-season Marcels have him at a (last week I think) .850 OPS going forward and he plays solid defense. That's a good player, but it's not HOF-level production like he's putting up now.