7/24, Brewers @ Cardinals; 7:15p CST (& Other Games)

[CubsBears29]

Sheets @ Wellemeyer

 

Even though seeing you sink in the standings is very nice, at least make the Beerdrinkers work for it tonight, plz T*birds!

[Ball And Glove]

Apparently there's been some nasty weather in the St. Louis area, and they might have trouble getting a game in tonight.

 

I'm bracing myself for the Cards winning 12-0 tonight, though -- this road trip has been too good to be true for Milwaukee. After seeing this team basically lose the division last year because they couldn't beat anyone on the road, it's unbelievable that they're a win away from a 7-0 road trip. Looks like the Brewers stole the Cards' pixie dust once they got into St. Louis.

[weatherdood]

Light rain to continue in STL for at least a couple more hours. Could be some heavier downpours in the 6:30 to 7:30 range as well. Think the game gets in, but it starts late.

[CubinNY]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

[bukie]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

The best thing that could happen would have been the Cubs winning more than 1 of 3 in the desert.

[CubinNY]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

The best thing that could happen would have been the Cubs winning more than 1 of 3 in the desert.

I'm not talking about the Cubs. Your point is so obvious it doesn't really need to be made.

[bukie]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

The best thing that could happen would have been the Cubs winning more than 1 of 3 in the desert.

I'm not talking about the Cubs. Your point is so obvious it doesn't really need to be made.

You would think so, but there are a lot of people around here who neglect to remember the Cubs aren't dependent on any other team to win the division.

[CubColtPacer]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either.

[CubinNY]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either.

The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss.

 

If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up.

 

a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up.

[CubColtPacer]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either.

The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss.

 

If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up.

 

a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up.

 

Yes, but if they had split the Cubs would be 2 games from missing the playoffs entirely with a loss tonight. A sweep and the worst the Cubs can be back is 3.

 

And the Cardinals would have only been 1 back in your scenario of a split and the Cubs losing tonight, not 2.

 

I'd rather the Cubs be closer to not winning the division then closer to the Cubs not making the playoffs.

[CubinNY]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either.

The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss.

 

If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up.

 

a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up.

 

Yes, but if they had split the Cubs would be 2 games from missing the playoffs entirely with a loss tonight. A sweep and the worst the Cubs can be back is 3.

 

And the Cardinals would have only been 1 back in your scenario of a split and the Cubs losing tonight, not 2.

 

I'd rather the Cubs be closer to not winning the division then closer to the Cubs not making the playoffs.

Again, you have to think about the NL East. You're not. The Cubs winning the division is what is important. The closer they are to not winning the division and the less likely it is that they make the playoffs. The division is what matters. If they win the division they could have a .500 record for all I care, they still get into the playoffs. I'd rather see other teams fighting for the Wild Card.

[CubColtPacer]

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

 

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either.

The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss.

 

If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up.

 

a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up.

 

Yes, but if they had split the Cubs would be 2 games from missing the playoffs entirely with a loss tonight. A sweep and the worst the Cubs can be back is 3.

 

And the Cardinals would have only been 1 back in your scenario of a split and the Cubs losing tonight, not 2.

 

I'd rather the Cubs be closer to not winning the division then closer to the Cubs not making the playoffs.

Again, you have to think about the NL East. You're not. The Cubs win the division is what is important. The closer they are to not winning the division and the less likely it is that they make the playoffs. The division is what matters. If they win the division they could have a .500 record for all I care, they still get into the playoffs. I'd rather see the other two teams fighting for the Wild Card.

 

I am looking at the East. But if the Cubs let 2 teams from the East pass them at this point, they aren't winning the Central anyway. 1 of the 2 teams of the Brewers or Cardinals may also play that badly. Certainly not both. So the NL East point really becomes irrelevant for the purposes of this question or at most an incredibly tiny factor. If the Cubs have enough wins to win the division this year, 99.9 percent of the time they'll have more wins than the WC winner.

 

Your way increases the chance of the Cubs to win the division, but I still believe that it decreases the Cubs overall chance of making it into the playoffs. If the standings were tighter between the Central and other divisions, it might be different. But with a situation of the 3 teams in the Central having the 3 best records in the NL, I'd rather increase my chances of making the playoffs in anyway possible, and the best way to do that is to push the 3rd best record as far back as possible.

[radarluv1]

its way to early to be having this argument.

[CubinNY]

its way to early to be having this argument.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time.

 

I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late.

[radarluv1]

i think we can all agree that a multiple-rain delayed, 17 inning marathon that ends at 4 AM would be the best way to end the series.

[CubColtPacer]

its way to early to be having this argument.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time.

 

I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late.

 

The Mets are playing good baseball. The Phillies are not. The Phillies have been treading water as long as the Cubs have. They hit their high water mark on June 8th, 13 games over .500. At the end of June, they were 5 games over. Today, they're 6 games over.

 

There's plenty of risk either way. I also am looking to minimize the Cubs risk, and am even willing to throw away homefield to do it.

 

If the Cubs play well (say, get to 94 wins or so) the only way they don't make the playoffs is if Milwaukee and St Louis both play really well and pass them. There's a statistically insignificant chance that 2 of the 3 of Philly, New York, and Florida can win 40 of their next 60 games. That's too good of a pace for too long for two teams in a division to do.

 

If the Cubs play ok and win about 89 games (1 game under .500 the rest of the way), then the East could catch them. But Milwaukee and St Louis both have great chances to pass them as well. I think the Cubs would squeak out the WC in this scenario and probably lose the division by 3-4 games.

 

If the Cubs collapse to 85 wins (9 games under .500 the rest of the way) they aren't winning either the division or WC. They have a better chance of winning the WC in this scenario, but they're likely staying home for the playoffs.

 

Part of this logic is also what you think of Milwaukee and St. Louis. If you think Milwaukee is really good, you'd rather them sweep St. Louis. If you think the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are going to collapse in September no matter what, then a split would be good. The later it gets the more I believe that the former is closer to the truth then the latter, although the latter still has a pretty good chance of happening.

[CubinNY]

its way to early to be having this argument.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time.

 

I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late.

 

The Mets are playing good baseball. The Phillies are not. The Phillies have been treading water as long as the Cubs have. They hit their high water mark on June 8th, 13 games over .500. At the end of June, they were 5 games over. Today, they're 6 games over.

 

There's plenty of risk either way. I also am looking to minimize the Cubs risk, and am even willing to throw away homefield to do it.

 

If the Cubs play well (say, get to 94 wins or so) the only way they don't make the playoffs is if Milwaukee and St Louis both play really well and pass them. There's a statistically insignificant chance that 2 of the 3 of Philly, New York, and Florida can win 40 of their next 60 games. That's too good of a pace for too long for two teams in a division to do.

 

If the Cubs play ok and win about 89 games (1 game under .500 the rest of the way), then the East could catch them. But Milwaukee and St Louis both have great chances to pass them as well. I think the Cubs would squeak out the WC in this scenario and probably lose the division by 3-4 games.

 

If the Cubs collapse to 85 wins (9 games under .500 the rest of the way) they aren't winning either the division or WC. They have a better chance of winning the WC in this scenario, but they're likely staying home for the playoffs.

 

Part of this logic is also what you think of Milwaukee and St. Louis. If you think Milwaukee is really good, you'd rather them sweep St. Louis. If you think the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are going to collapse in September no matter what, then a split would be good. The later it gets the more I believe that the former is closer to the truth then the latter, although the latter still has a pretty good chance of happening.

I don't want the Brewers or the Cardinals in the playoffs. I want the Cubs in the playoffs. The only sure way that happens is to win the division. The surest way for that to happen is for the two teams behind them to beat each other up as much as possible so even when the Cubs lose one of the two isn't gaining ground on them. The closer the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are to the Cubs the less likely it is that the Cubs make the playoffs. When you win your division it doesn't matter what your record is compared to the rest of the league. That's not the case with the WC.

[CubColtPacer]

its way to early to be having this argument.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time.

 

I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late.

 

The Mets are playing good baseball. The Phillies are not. The Phillies have been treading water as long as the Cubs have. They hit their high water mark on June 8th, 13 games over .500. At the end of June, they were 5 games over. Today, they're 6 games over.

 

There's plenty of risk either way. I also am looking to minimize the Cubs risk, and am even willing to throw away homefield to do it.

 

If the Cubs play well (say, get to 94 wins or so) the only way they don't make the playoffs is if Milwaukee and St Louis both play really well and pass them. There's a statistically insignificant chance that 2 of the 3 of Philly, New York, and Florida can win 40 of their next 60 games. That's too good of a pace for too long for two teams in a division to do.

 

If the Cubs play ok and win about 89 games (1 game under .500 the rest of the way), then the East could catch them. But Milwaukee and St Louis both have great chances to pass them as well. I think the Cubs would squeak out the WC in this scenario and probably lose the division by 3-4 games.

 

If the Cubs collapse to 85 wins (9 games under .500 the rest of the way) they aren't winning either the division or WC. They have a better chance of winning the WC in this scenario, but they're likely staying home for the playoffs.

 

Part of this logic is also what you think of Milwaukee and St. Louis. If you think Milwaukee is really good, you'd rather them sweep St. Louis. If you think the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are going to collapse in September no matter what, then a split would be good. The later it gets the more I believe that the former is closer to the truth then the latter, although the latter still has a pretty good chance of happening.

I don't want the Brewers or the Cardinals in the playoffs. I want the Cubs in the playoffs. The only sure way that happens is to win the division. The surest way for that to happen is for the two teams behind them to beat each other up as much as possible so even when the Cubs lose one of the two isn't gaining ground on them. The closer the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are to the Cubs the less likely it is that the Cubs make the playoffs. When you win your division it doesn't matter what your record is compared to the rest of the league. That's not the case with the WC.

 

I really wish we had access to BP's playoff odds simulator so we could run both scenarios out and see the actual percentages. It would be fascinating.

 

The only sure way for the Cubs to be in the playoffs is to win a playoff spot. That can happen one of two ways. Sometimes the WC takes more wins then your particular division. In the Cubs case, that is statistically incredibly unlikely. In fact, mathematically, the Central has an 85 percent chance to win the WC this year. In the other 15 percent, the chances that the division winner has also collapsed behind the WC winner from another division is not good.

 

When the division will take more wins then the WC, which will happen this year, the only difference between the races is the number of teams involved. For every extra team comes extra risk with more teams that could get hot and possibly catch you.

 

In the case this year, there is at most 2 extra teams involved in the WC race than are also involved in the division race, and they're not all that likely to get in the race at this point of the season. The chances of adding extra teams to the race is low, so each game of lead is statistically more important. The easiest way still for the Cubs to miss the playoffs is to be behind Milwaukee and St. Louis, so it's better to push one of them back as far as possible. Focusing on winning the division at the possible expense of the WC brings increased reward (homefield throughout) but it also brings increased risk of the Brewers and Cardinals being the 2 central representatives.

[chuckywang]

Time for some Cardinals pixie dust.

 

:beg: :beg:

[CubsBears29]

Time for some Cardinals pixie dust.

 

:beg: :beg:

 

It doesn't work when we need it, you know that.

 

WIN BREWERS!!! :beg:

[DiamondMind]

Is it messed up to actually feel bad for the cardinals right now? what a brutal series.

 

16 of Milwaukee's 17 scored runs in the series have came after the 5th inning.

[bcl412]

Brewers win

[AlwaysaCub]

Ouch St. Louis.

[bcl412]

How many game are we up on St. Louis now. 3 or 4

[chuckywang]

Looks like we're gonna have to beat the Brewers ourselves.