Ichiro's All Star Pre-game speech

[abuck1220]

well, i'm right. no one called him a bum...someone just said he was overrated.

[Derwood]

well, i'm right. no one called him a bum...someone just said he was overrated.

 

it feels good to be right, doesn't it

[Tyrant]

The man doesn't walk or hit for power, why should be an instant hall of famer?

 

When his career batting average is .331, it doesn't matter if he doesn't walk.

 

Tony Gwynn didn't walk much either.

[OleMissCub]

The man doesn't walk or hit for power, why should be an instant hall of famer?

 

So that's your criteria for the Hall of Fame? Mickey Tettleton walked a lot and Dave Kingman had a lot of power. Let's put them in!

 

I think when he retires, Ichiro will be a no doubt HOFer.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The man doesn't walk or hit for power, why should be an instant hall of famer?

 

So that's your criteria for the Hall of Fame? Mickey Tettleton walked a lot and Dave Kingman had a lot of power. Let's put them in!

 

He's not saying that walking or hitting for power are the only criteria, but that there are standards for those that need to be met to be HOF-worthy.

[Derwood]

The man doesn't walk or hit for power, why should be an instant hall of famer?

 

So that's your criteria for the Hall of Fame? Mickey Tettleton walked a lot and Dave Kingman had a lot of power. Let's put them in!

 

He's not saying that walking or hitting for power are the only criteria, but that there are standards for those that need to be met to be HOF-worthy.

 

Ozzie Smith is in almost entirely for his defense. Ichiro has gold glove defense AND hits for a high average. I'm not sure why one would think he's overrated unless you insist that your corner OF's are 40 HR players

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ozzie Smith is in almost entirely for his defense. Ichiro has gold glove defense AND hits for a high average. I'm not sure why one would think he's overrated unless you insist that your corner OF's are 40 HR players

 

I think Ozzie Smith's HOF-worthiness isn't a open and shut case.

 

Even when you use offensive metrics that account for Ichiro's game, he's still underwhelming. He's broken a .300 EqA once, and counting this year he's been below .280 for half his career. He's tied for 34th in GPA among outfielders this year, after being 7th last year, 20th in 2006, 21st in 2005, and 8th in 2004. That's barely All-Star worthy, never mind the Hall of Fame.

[Banedon]

well, i'm right. no one called him a bum...someone just said he was overrated.

 

it feels good to be right, doesn't it

 

Come on. At least let him say something out of line before getting all on his case about it. There's no need to start something where there was nothing.

 

EDIT: I read further back in the thread...both of you need to chill out a bit...

[TruffleShuffle]

WARP since ichiro joined the league:

 

ichiro: 56.5

manny: 46.6

 

conclusion: manny ramirez is really, really, really overrated.

[TruffleShuffle]

Ozzie Smith is in almost entirely for his defense. Ichiro has gold glove defense AND hits for a high average. I'm not sure why one would think he's overrated unless you insist that your corner OF's are 40 HR players

 

I think Ozzie Smith's HOF-worthiness isn't a open and shut case.

 

when a guy is, over a long period of time, providing above-average offense at his position, plus saving 20 runs over the average player at that position, he's a sure-fire hall of famer.

[SouthSideRyan]

WARP since ichiro joined the league:

 

ichiro: 56.5

manny: 46.6

 

conclusion: manny ramirez is really, really, really overrated.

 

Fenway's OF defense #s are all sorts of effed up.

[Tyrant]

WARP since ichiro joined the league:

 

ichiro: 56.5

manny: 46.6

 

conclusion: manny ramirez is really, really, really overrated.

 

Fenway's OF defense #s are all sorts of effed up.

 

So is Manny's OF defense.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

WARP since ichiro joined the league:

 

ichiro: 56.5

manny: 46.6

 

conclusion: manny ramirez is really, really, really overrated.

 

Are you legitimately making this argument?

 

First things first, what SSR said. Second, BP's fielding metrics are garbage. Third, before Ichiro's arrival, Manny Ramirez had 6 consecutive full seasons, SIX, that were as good or significantly better than Ichiro's best season.

[davearm2]

WARP since ichiro joined the league:

 

ichiro: 56.5

manny: 46.6

 

conclusion: manny ramirez is really, really, really overrated.

 

Are you legitimately making this argument?

 

First things first, what SSR said. Second, BP's fielding metrics are garbage. Third, before Ichiro's arrival, Manny Ramirez had 6 consecutive full seasons, SIX, that were as good or significantly better than Ichiro's best season.

I won't argue BP's fielding metrics are garbage, but you had better be using something to account for defense.

 

And with defense included in the equation, I have an extremely hard time believing the bolded is true.

 

Ichiro can hit like crazy, albeit with little power or patience, while playing fantastic defense and making a significant impact on the bases.

Ramirez can hit like crazy, with tons of power and patience, but plays comical defense and has no redeeming baserunning skills.

 

You find a good way to roll everything that matters together, and I'm betting your conclusion will crumble. BP's metrics would have to be crazy-bad if they show Ichiro significantly better than Ramirez if in reality the opposite is true.

[OleMissCub]

FWIW, Ichiro's WARP3 in just 7 and a half seasons since he entered in 2001: 73.6, second only to Pujols and Arod in that time span.

 

In the 7 and a half seasons since 2001, some other big dogs in WARP3: Pujols at 87.1, Arod - 84.8, Beltran - 72.4 (wow, didn't expect that), Berkman - 70.5, Bonds - 69.7, Tejada - 68.5, Rolen - 66.5, Abreu - 63.6, Edmonds - 62.8, Jeter - 61.3, Helton - 61.1, Giles - 60.8, Chipper - 60.4, Kent - 60.3, Vlad - 60.1, Mike Lowell - 60.0, Posada - 58.6, Manny - 57.7, Soriano - 57, Andruw Jones 55.7, Furcal 55.5, Eric Chavez 55.3, D.Lee - 54.9, Damon - 54.8, Delgado - 54.5, Pudge - 53.6, Giambi - 53.5, Rollins - 53.3, Ordonez - 53.3, Thome - 52.4, Michael Young - 52.1, Drew - 51.7, Sheffield - 50.2, Beltre - 50.1, Glaus - 49.4, Burrell - 48.6, Torii Hunter - 47.0, Renteria - 46.9, Carlos Lee - 46.6, Shawn Green - 46.6, Aramis Ramirez - 45.0, Dunn - 44.6, Sexson - 44.5, Dye - 44.3

 

...Eckstein - 40.1....Kendall - 39.3....Juan Pierre 34.3.....Neifury - 14.9 :-)

 

Obviously, many of those guys missed seasons and what not, so those raw WARP3 scores aren't totally accurate, but I think it does show that Ichiro is one of the elites of the game right now and has been consistently one of the best ever since he got here, and whilst most of the guys up there in WARP3 are power guys, the fact that Ichiro is ranked third shows that you can be of elite value as a player and not "hit for power and take walks". Certainly sounds like he is building a HOF career to me.

[BigSlick]

career .297 EqA....what a bum!

aaaaaaarghhhhoverrateddoesn'tmeanhe'sabumi'mtiredofthisargument

 

He's a great player. He's not the best player as many sportswriters make him out to be. I would obviously take him on my team, but the fact that he doesn't walk and doesn't hit for very much power are certain negatives to not be taken for granted.

[OleMissCub]

career .297 EqA....what a bum!

aaaaaaarghhhhoverrateddoesn'tmeanhe'sabumi'mtiredofthisargument

 

He's a great player. He's not the best player as many sportswriters make him out to be. I would obviously take him on my team, but the fact that he doesn't walk and doesn't hit for very much power are certain negatives to not be taken for granted.

 

Well he must doing something right because the only players in the last 7 years with more value are Pujols and A-Rod.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'll just go ahead and quote our friend haltz.

 

Chris Duncan has a 2.7 WARP3 in 236 PA this year. I'm declaring a moratorium on this stat for all players post 1980.

[OleMissCub]

I'll just go ahead and quote our friend haltz.

 

Chris Duncan has a 2.7 WARP3 in 236 PA this year. I'm declaring a moratorium on this stat for all players post 1980.

 

WARP3 is an "assumptive" stat while the season is still going on (or at least that is my understanding of it), it assumes your production will translate into the player playing 162 games....For example, Mike Fontenot is at 4.0 right now, whereas last year he was at 1.9. At the end of the season, when the actual number of PA you got ARE set in stone, then WARP3 is accurate.

 

Regardless, those stats I provided do show that Ichiro is easily one of the elites in the past decade.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Regardless, those stats I provided do show that Ichiro is easily one of the elites in the past decade.

 

Well, it's one stat, and one that I'm not a huge fan of.

 

Simply, Ichiro is not an elite offensive player, or even an elite offensive outfielder. And while he's a very good defender, that makes him far from a HOF lock. Imagine if he wasn't !chiro, he wouldn't have nearly the swell of support he does.

[sneakypower]

this is kind of a weird argument. is the prevalent assumption that there should be no other factors considered when determining HOF status other than interpreted production?

 

even looking squarely at his production, he makes a compelling argument for the HOF without factoring the rest of what he's brought to the game. he gets overrated compared to his production because no player in the game attracts more fans, and it's not even close. this is reminiscent of when Clemente gets called overrated, because his numbers don't quite match up with his legacy. it's not hard to understand how he transcends the game and also paved the way for other Japanese stars to make their way to the MLB and improve the quality of the game.

 

and not to be overlooked is his dominance in Japan. the Baseball hall of fame enshrined Josh Gibson, who never played a game in the MLB. he'll be judged on the entirety of his professional career, and will be a sure-fire first ballot HOF.

[OleMissCub]

Regardless, those stats I provided do show that Ichiro is easily one of the elites in the past decade.

 

Well, it's one stat, and one that I'm not a huge fan of.

 

Simply, Ichiro is not an elite offensive player, or even an elite offensive outfielder. And while he's a very good defender, that makes him far from a HOF lock. Imagine if he wasn't !chiro, he wouldn't have nearly the swell of support he does.

 

His 162 game avg over his entire career is: .331/.378/.432, 229 hits, 113 runs, and 41 SB.

 

Let's pretend he was born in this country and let's be conservative and put him getting into the bigs at age 22 instead of 27 (I say conservative because I think someone with his talent would have gotten into the bigs at a younger age than 22). So basically subtract five years of age from him. Let's make him 29 years old with the following resume:

 

.331/.378/.432, 1,711 hits, 306 stolen bases, 845 runs scored, 7 gold gloves and 1 MVP.

 

You wouldn't project that person to be a HOFer by the time they retired?

 

His late entrance into the game will preclude him from reaching record milestones, but I think the HOF voters will take that into account. Plus he's a player of historical importance and yada yada yada. Unless something unforeseen occurs and he is precluded from playing out the remainder of his career, there is NO WAY he won't be in the Hall of Fame.

 

We can argue all day about whether he is elite, great, or good....but I don't see how there is much argument about HOF, assuming that he is able to play out his stretch.

[Derwood]

barring injury, Ichiro would have easily surpassed 3000 hits had he played his whole career in the US. An 18 year career might have gotten him close to 4000

[CubInOK]

Well I'm proven wrong. :oops: Ya sure, he isn't the greatest player at the plate, but didn't Piniella say Ichiro could hit 40 HRs a year if he was allowed to back when Piniella was in Seattle? I personally would take that Ichiro over the one playing right now if it translated to something like .280/.370/.500 per season.

 

I also think he should be their CF, not their RF. His defense is wasted in RF because he is a fast player and putting him in RF takes away from that skill a little, whereas he could cover for other OFs defensive deficiencies as a CF with his range. I forgot about his above-average arm too.

 

Ultimately, he probably would be an upgrade over the Johnson/Edmonds platoon as an overall player. His defense and steals would probably make up for the loss at the plate.

[Tyrant]

His stolen base efficiency -- 90 percent over the last three seasons (!) -- is pretty impressive, I have to say.