A Nice Article on the Trade Market

[Jehrico]

I will be shocked - shocked, I say! - if Ryan Dempster is not a Chicago Cub in 2009.

Agreed. Dempster is one of Hendry's faves, and has been for a long time.

[Amazing_Grace]

I'm very anxious now to see Marquis traded, although not for the reason most people have. I think he's done just fine in his role, and lots of teams have worse guys at the back of their rotation (probably most teams).

 

But obtaining Harden and Gaudin makes it that much more important to shed Marquis' salary for '09. Money figures to be tight with all of the raises built into existing multiyear contracts, plus a handful of arb guys, plus guys like Wood and Dempster requiring significant raises to retain. Marquis' $10M is absolutely better spent elsewhere, and thus must be shed. I'd be all for making the deal right now, if there's interest.

 

With the acquisition of Gaudin (Harden has no bearing on what the Cubs will do with Dempster), I think it's more likely that the Cubs are prepared to let Dempster walk after the yr, and grab a couple of draft picks. If the Cubs trade Marquis and do indeed let Dempster walk (I love Dempster, but I rather acquire draft picks to continue to stockpile the system), then the Cubs could feesible go into next season with Hill/Marshall/Gaudin/Veal/Shark fighting out for the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. IMO, Gaudin makes it likely that Dempster won't be back in 2009.

 

 

I don't think there was ever much of a chance for Dempster to be back in 09 regardless. If he continues to post the numbers he has, he'll be more expensive than the Cubs will want to spend on a starter who might have had a fluke season (Shawn Estes anyone). If he doesn't, we'll be glad to be rid of his salary, and give someone younger a shot. Wood's resigning will almost certainly take priority because of his popularity, and Hendry will feel he owes the guy a good deal after he took less money to stay in Chicago. By the offseason, or sometime during next year, Veal and Samardzija, assuming they aren't dealt or have injury setbacks, will probably be in the picture. Z, Lilly, and Harden will be the top 3 if they're healthy. That leaves Hill, Marshall, Gaudin, Veal, Samardzija, and possibly Leiber (he would be fairly cheap to hang onto) to fill two spots. The only way I see Dempster back is if A) the Cubs win the series, Dempster is a major player, and the team is held together at any cost by the new ownership, who for PR reasons, will pretty much have to do just that; or B) Harden goes down with a serious injury that projects to keep him out through part of next season and whoever replaces him does poorly.

[RedFlash]

I will be shocked - shocked, I say! - if Ryan Dempster is not a Chicago Cub in 2009.

 

Then prepared to be shocked. Because I don't see Hendry wanted 3 pitchers making atleast $10 million, with a chance---if healthy---a fourth joining the $10 mill per club. I don't see him doing that, considering you have Gaudin/Marshall/Hill/Shark/ and perhaps Veal could replace him in the rotation.

 

Now, if Hendry is successful at moving Jason Marquis before the deadline, and Lilly after the season, I could see Hendry re-signing Dempster, but other then that scenerio, I don't see Dempster back unless it is for a discount Personally, I think the Cubs should move both Marquis and Lilly (Hill and Marshall can give the Cubs what Lilly does, for less money) and re-sign Dempster.

[Jehrico]

Then prepared to be shocked. Because I don't see Hendry wanted 3 pitchers making atleast $10 million, with a chance---if healthy---a fourth joining the $10 mill per club.

Then you don't know Hendry. When he gets his eye on someone, he'll bring him in and see how they do here, and they'll stay here so long as they are performing. If Dempster stinks in the second half, then that's another story. Demp was a long-time fav of Hendry just like Floyd and Barrett were before they came here.

[JeffH]

Then prepared to be shocked. Because I don't see Hendry wanted 3 pitchers making atleast $10 million, with a chance---if healthy---a fourth joining the $10 mill per club.

 

Why not? $10 is pretty much average money for a quality, veteran starting pitcher nowadays.

 

If we know anything about Jim Hendry, it's that he doesn't want to come up short on pitching depth.

 

I don't see him doing that, considering you have Gaudin/Marshall/Hill/Shark/ and perhaps Veal could replace him in the rotation.

 

There's no way that a high-payroll supposed championship contender is going to have Jeff Samardzija or Donnie Veal anywhere near its starting rotation at the start of 2009. And I say that as someone who really likes Samardzija and doesn't hate Veal.

[soapy]

i think Marquis will be gone and I think one of Dempster or Lilly will be gone before next season.

[Jehrico]

i think Marquis will be gone and I think one of Dempster or Lilly will be gone before next season.

My money is on Lilly. He's reminding me far too much of Bronson Arroyo and his first two years in the NL (minus the home runs off of Glendon freaking Rusch). Look at Bronson now...if that's the track Lilly is following, then I don't want him anywhere near this team next year.

[Tracer Bullet]

a lot of this remains to be seen. There's too many ifs to say with any confidence what the rotation will look like:

 

Is Hill able to pitch again this year anywhere near his '07 level?

 

Is Harden healthy the whole 2nd half?

 

Can Lilly keep the ball in the damn yard (21 HRs this year - 28 each of the last 2 years)?

 

Can Dempster throw 200 IP when he hasn't thrown that many in years?

 

Can we sign CC?

 

I'd like Marshall to be in the rotation for the next month or two to see if he can be effective, but his leash would depend on how our lead holds up. I don't think Lou is going to give him that chance over Marquis though.

[davearm2]

There's no way that a high-payroll supposed championship contender is going to have Jeff Samardzija or Donnie Veal anywhere near its starting rotation at the start of 2009. And I say that as someone who really likes Samardzija and doesn't hate Veal.

I'd have to agree.

 

Any argument that includes Veal and Samardzija as notable reasons why a proven, productive starter like Dempster is not needed back is an awfully dubious one IMO.

 

The Cubs need to come back with a minimum of 6, and probably 7 from amongst:

Zambrano

Harden

Dempster

Lilly

Marshall

Hill

Gaudin

Marquis

 

And ideally Marquis (and his salary) is the odd man out of that equation.

 

Guys like Hart, Veal, Samardzija, and Atkins can duke it out for the emergency/swing starter role, and spend some time riding the CHI-DSM shuttlebus like Marshall has.

[RedFlash]

There's no way that a high-payroll supposed championship contender is going to have Jeff Samardzija or Donnie Veal anywhere near its starting rotation at the start of 2009. And I say that as someone who really likes Samardzija and doesn't hate Veal.

 

What about Boston having kids like Bucholz (can't spell his name worth a crap) Lester, and perhaps even Lester in the rotation? Or how the Yankees with Kennedy and Hughes? I'm not comparing the quality of young pitchers the Cubs have to what the Red Sox/Yankees have, but those teams were/are prepare to go with young, unproven pitchers in the rotation. Now, I admit it's been semi-decent with the Red Sox with Lester working out, but Masterson and Bucholz being hit and miss. And so far it'shasn't work for the Yankees, but that doesn't mean their young pitchers still won't developed. So just because a team is a "high-payroll championship contender" doesn't mean they won't take a shot at having cheaper options in the rotation. IMO, Kennedy and Hughes will work out for the Yankees, and Bucholz will work out for the Red Sox in their rotations. I don't buy your argument, because IMO it's dated.

 

Jericho/JeffH, did both you read the REST of what I post? I said if Hendry is successful at moving Marquis and Lilly between NOW and the start of the OFFSEASON, then re-signing Dempster would be all but guarantee. But if you ask me: Dempster today or Harden tomorrow what would I say? I say Harden tomorrow. Let me make this clear (not trying to rude or condecending), if Hendry can move Lilly and Marquis then I expect Dempster to be back, but if he can't, I expect the Cubs to let Dempster walk for a couple of draft picks.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's no way that a high-payroll supposed championship contender is going to have Jeff Samardzija or Donnie Veal anywhere near its starting rotation at the start of 2009. And I say that as someone who really likes Samardzija and doesn't hate Veal.

 

What about Boston having kids like Bucholz (can't spell his name worth a crap) Lester, and perhaps even Lester in the rotation? Or how the Yankees with Kennedy and Hughes? I'm not comparing the quality of young pitchers the Cubs have to what the Red Sox/Yankees have, but those teams were/are prepare to go with young, unproven pitchers in the rotation. Now, I admit it's been semi-decent with the Red Sox with Lester working out, but Masterson and Bucholz being hit and miss. And so far it'shasn't work for the Yankees, but that doesn't mean their young pitchers still won't developed. So just because a team is a "high-payroll championship contender" doesn't mean they won't take a shot at having cheaper options in the rotation. IMO, Kennedy and Hughes will work out for the Yankees, and Bucholz will work out for the Red Sox in their rotations. I don't buy your argument, because IMO it's dated.

 

You can't simply ignore the fact that Buchholz, Lester, "even Lester"(Hansen? Masterson?), Hughes, and Kennedy are worlds better than Veal and Samardzija. It's the whole point.

[davearm2]

There's no way that a high-payroll supposed championship contender is going to have Jeff Samardzija or Donnie Veal anywhere near its starting rotation at the start of 2009. And I say that as someone who really likes Samardzija and doesn't hate Veal.

 

What about Boston having kids like Bucholz (can't spell his name worth a crap) Lester, and perhaps even Lester in the rotation? Or how the Yankees with Kennedy and Hughes? I'm not comparing the quality of young pitchers the Cubs have to what the Red Sox/Yankees have, but those teams were/are prepare to go with young, unproven pitchers in the rotation. Now, I admit it's been semi-decent with the Red Sox with Lester working out, but Masterson and Bucholz being hit and miss. And so far it'shasn't work for the Yankees, but that doesn't mean their young pitchers still won't developed. So just because a team is a "high-payroll championship contender" doesn't mean they won't take a shot at having cheaper options in the rotation. IMO, Kennedy and Hughes will work out for the Yankees, and Bucholz will work out for the Red Sox in their rotations. I don't buy your argument, because IMO it's dated.

 

You can't simply ignore the fact that Buchholz, Lester, "even Lester"(Hansen? Masterson?), Hughes, and Kennedy are worlds better than Veal and Samardzija. It's the whole point.

Just to piggyback on this point... I'm sure many of the same folks that were clamoring for Gallagher to get a spot in this year's rotation would cringe at the notion of Veal or Samardzija in next year's rotation.

[Jehrico]

Jericho/JeffH, did both you read the REST of what I post? I said if Hendry is successful at moving Marquis and Lilly between NOW and the start of the OFFSEASON, then re-signing Dempster would be all but guarantee. But if you ask me: Dempster today or Harden tomorrow what would I say? I say Harden tomorrow. Let me make this clear (not trying to rude or condecending), if Hendry can move Lilly and Marquis then I expect Dempster to be back, but if he can't, I expect the Cubs to let Dempster walk for a couple of draft picks.

I read the rest of the post, and I think it's irrelevent. I think Hendry brings him back regardless.

[RedFlash]

Jericho/JeffH, did both you read the REST of what I post? I said if Hendry is successful at moving Marquis and Lilly between NOW and the start of the OFFSEASON, then re-signing Dempster would be all but guarantee. But if you ask me: Dempster today or Harden tomorrow what would I say? I say Harden tomorrow. Let me make this clear (not trying to rude or condecending), if Hendry can move Lilly and Marquis then I expect Dempster to be back, but if he can't, I expect the Cubs to let Dempster walk for a couple of draft picks.

I read the rest of the post, and I think it's irrelevent. I think Hendry brings him back regardless.

 

Not with the club still up for sell...I realize Hendry was given the green light to make moves DURING the season by Zell and whatnot, but in the offseason it's a different story. I could see Hendry being told to hold off making MAJOR moves in the offseason until the Cubs sell is settle one way or another. Which means, even if he wants Dempster to return, it may not be his choice. So Hendry would either have to re-sign before the season over, or potentially have his hands tied in the offseason due to the potential Cubs sell.

 

One possibility to consider is....trade Marquis before the deadline (one more good quality start, and move him quickly) and then sign Dempster to an extension (3/$33 mill sounds like a deal that could get done). Have Dempster finish the yr out on his current contract----which would allow the Cubs to still potentially improve the club this yr---then his new contract kicks in for 2009. This way, you get rid of Marquis, extend/pay rasie Dempster, and still leave the ability to move Lilly in the offseason.

[davell]

I think Dempster will be back, assuming he has a "decent" second half. If he comes in with a 4ish ERA over the 2nd half of the season and stays healthy, I'd expect him to be back with a 3-30ish type contract with it being backloaded most likely, maybe 6-12-12 or something like that(maybe a mill less per with a signing bonus). Get rid of Marquis and go into next year with everyone else with Z/Harden/Lilly/Demp all having guaranteed spots in the rotation.

 

Of course, it's possible that he could have a much better second half than that and price himself higher as well.

 

I do think that the ownership situation COULD wind up being the only way this doesn't happen, but to this point, it hasn't been an issue at all. I guess the other slight possibility would be if we DO have an owner in place by the offseason, I guess they could want to make a splash and go after Sabathia or Sheets possibly, also leaving Demp out of the equation.

[inari]

I think Dempster will be back, assuming he has a "decent" second half. If he comes in with a 4ish ERA over the 2nd half of the season and stays healthy, I'd expect him to be back with a 3-30ish type contract with it being backloaded most likely, maybe 6-12-12 or something like that(maybe a mill less per with a signing bonus). Get rid of Marquis and go into next year with everyone else with Z/Harden/Lilly/Demp all having guaranteed spots in the rotation.

 

Of course, it's possible that he could have a much better second half than that and price himself higher as well.

 

I do think that the ownership situation COULD wind up being the only way this doesn't happen, but to this point, it hasn't been an issue at all. I guess the other slight possibility would be if we DO have an owner in place by the offseason, I guess they could want to make a splash and go after Sabathia or Sheets possibly, also leaving Demp out of the equation.

 

If Mark Cuban is in place, I can't imagine that he won't go hard for Sabathia.

[David]

Is Darvish being posted this offseason or the next one?

[badnews]

I am calling it: Dempster and Wood will both be Type B free agents and the draft pick thing will not be a great compensation.