The 2008 Draft Signings Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Who has the better projection out of Shafer, Carpenter and Bristow? They seem like similar type pitchers.

 

I'd say in terms of upside, it'd go Carpenter, Bristow, Shafer. In terms of reaching their potential, I'd say Shafer, Carpenter, Bristow. JMO though.

 

I don't know about Shafer reaching his potential. His junior season leads to some question marks, given the decline in his stuff.

 

Yeah, it's a hard comparison to make. I think Shafer being first is a function of Carpenter and Bristow having even further to go to reach their even higher ceilings more than Shafer being a polished pitcher.

[UK1679666180]

Shafer is the most likely to make it to the majors, Carpenter and Bristow have higher ceilings.

[Guest]

Who has the better projection out of Shafer, Carpenter and Bristow? They seem like similar type pitchers.

 

I'd say in terms of upside, it'd go Carpenter, Bristow, Shafer. In terms of reaching their potential, I'd say Shafer, Carpenter, Bristow. JMO though.

 

I don't know about Shafer reaching his potential. His junior season leads to some question marks, given the decline in his stuff.

 

Yeah, it's a hard comparison to make. I think Shafer being first is a function of Carpenter and Bristow having even further to go to reach their even higher ceilings more than Shafer being a polished pitcher.

 

I haven't gotten the impression that Bristow's ceiling is much higher than Shafer's.

 

I agree with what Ping said on likelihood of reaching the majors, though (of course, based on reading internet scouting reports).

[UK1679666180]

I base it off their FBs, while Shafer has more consistent secondary pitches, his FB isn't as strong as Bristow's.

[craig]

I didn't get the impression that Bristow's fastball was any faster than Shafer's current fastball, and my impression was that Shafer had a better chance to get notably faster. (If he recovers his former velocity. Maybe he lost some as a result of temporary arm issues that will completely resolve that still impacted this year but will completely resolve later. Or, maybe he lost some as a result of a mechanical maladjustment that was prompted by the arm stuff, and if he resolves that he'll be able to hit 94-95.) Of course, I've never seen them, just based off what I read.

 

I trust the draft standing and the pre-draft rankings for the three guys represents their chances. Shafer appears to have a pretty good start on a breaking pitch and on control, and has stuff that may be OK. I'd guess that if he fails, most likely it will be because of inadequate stuff. Carpenter at times flashes a faster fastball, and perhaps also a sharper breaking pitch. How often he's meaningfully faster I don't know. His control is obviously well behind, and his injury questions may be even worse than Shafer's. I'd guess that if he fails, it might be because of injury; or more likely it might be because of wildness; or it might be because his fastball ends up not being fast enough to make up for an inconsistent breaking pitch. But my guess is that while Shafer's reason for failure would more likely be stuff that's just not good enough, that Carpenter's will be because of control (or health) that's just not good enough. For Bristow, the impression I got was that his velocity was inconsistent, sometimes OK but sometimes not, and that sometimes his fastball was very straight, and that his breaking stuff was pretty raw. So he could fail based on inadequate stuff or inadequate control. (Or of course arm problems, which seem to befall converts more often than regular pitchers.)

 

Obviously I don't know anything, I've never seen any of these guys, not even once or not even on TV, and have never talked to any scout or person who has, so my info could be way off. I guess maybe partly it's a question of how BA-type scouting reports get written. For a Bristow type, I think they tend to over-inflate the velocity, and sometimes refer more to the "touches 90-92" stuff, even if the guy may not touch 92 very often and may work at 85-91 for 95% of their fastballs. But sometimes a more familiar, more seen guy get "works at 88-91", which sounds more mediocre. But the "works at 88-91" guy may actually throw just as hard or harder than the other, and perhaps with more sink/tail.

[UK1679666180]

They were similar as far as where they sat, but Bristow touched 93 this year which Shafer was 88-91 all year.

 

UPDATE (5/15): Bristow restored a lot of his lost draft value with a solid, occasionally-dominating season as a pitcher at East Carolina. Never comfortable in a two-way role, he was able to focus all his attention on being a starting pitcher this spring and his confidence soared as he went 8-2, 3.22 with 25 walks and 78 strikeouts in 87 innings. With a big, strong frame, he was able to sustain the velocity on his fastball deep into games. The pitch was normally in the 89-91 mph range, but occasionally crept to 92 and even 93, though it had a tendency to be straight. He also had command of a 73-74 mph curve and a hard cutter, while showing feel for a changeup.

[craig]

BA: Shafer had established himself as one of the premier pitching prospects for the 2008 draft midway through the 2007 season. Then he strained his elbow, which didn't require surgery but sidelined him for a month. His fastball hasn't been the same since. Shafer used to work from 91-94 mph with his fastball and now ranges from 88-91 mph. The diminished velocity hasn't made him less effective, however. His effortless delivery allows his heater to get on hitters quickly, and it enables him to live in the bottom of the strike zone. He has above-average command of his fastball, 12-to-6 curveball and changeup. Shafer has a solid 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame and his arm has been healthy since tweaking his elbow. He's no longer a candidate for the first round, but he could go in the second or third.

 

Keith Law's #46 prospect:

Summary: Shafer had abdomen surgery before the 2007 season, then hurt his elbow, leading to a disappointing sophomore season after he was named the Missouri Valley Conference's Pitcher of the Year as a freshman. He has easy velocity, working with a solid-average fastball with some sink, and an average changeup with good arm speed. He's extremely athletic, and his curveball projects as plus; it's sharp with good depth but isn't consistent...

 

Craig's comment: I'm guessing that if BA lists him as ranging from 88-91, that's the "working" velocity. And anybody who works at 88-91 is going to have a few that touch 92 or 93 (or more). So again, I'm guessing that Shafer and Bristow this spring in reality probably had comparable velocity. And I'm guessing that the Cubs scouted Shafer as having the better fastball, based on the alleged "easy" velocity mentioned by both BA and Law, and the "get on hitters quickly" reference by BA, suggesting a greater effectiveness perhaps than is common for most pitchers with equivalent mph. Or, perhaps the easy might also suggest that if he muscles up and throws for the radar guns, perhaps he can do so?

 

We'll see. Hopefully Bristow will end up with a consistent 91-94 hard sinker/cutter, which could be quite nice. And hopefully Shafer will end up back with an easy 90-94, with some surprise/deceptively-fast aspect, with some sink, and with nice location. Would sure be nice to have some of the draft choices this year really work out wonderfully.

 

We're due for a draft like that, I think.

[UK1679666180]

UPDATE (5/1): Shafer had what has become his typical season for the Shockers: 10-3, 2.74 in 89 innings entering NCAA tournament play. He became more and more of a pitcher during his three years, and now will rarely show the low 90s fastball he regularly had on display as a freshman. Shafer has three solid-average pitches and a proven ability to use them, which gives him value in the top five rounds of the draft, but his lack of a plus pitch or plus velocity could push him down a bit from where teams once had him slotted. He threw much better late in the season, up to 88-91 mph. A good present comparison for Shafer would be former Shockers starter, Travis Banwart, a fourth-round selection in 2007

 

I'm hoping to see more from Shafer b/c when I seen him, I was not impressed.

[Outshined_One]

UPDATE (5/1): Shafer had what has become his typical season for the Shockers: 10-3, 2.74 in 89 innings entering NCAA tournament play. He became more and more of a pitcher during his three years, and now will rarely show the low 90s fastball he regularly had on display as a freshman. Shafer has three solid-average pitches and a proven ability to use them, which gives him value in the top five rounds of the draft, but his lack of a plus pitch or plus velocity could push him down a bit from where teams once had him slotted. He threw much better late in the season, up to 88-91 mph. A good present comparison for Shafer would be former Shockers starter, Travis Banwart, a fourth-round selection in 2007

 

I'm hoping to see more from Shafer b/c when I seen him, I was not impressed.

 

Banwart's having an interesting season so far, in spite of the fact that he missed some of May and all of June.

 

Shafer could be an interesting prospect if he turns out like Banwart has thus far.

[Guest]

35th rounder Ross Vagedes won't sign as he quit baseball for the real world.

[Guest]

Every time I see a post here, I keep thinking Cashner has signed.

 

Yes, I'm aware of the fact that I probably just caused other people to look with the same false hope.

[Guest]

Every time I see a post here, I keep thinking Cashner has signed.

 

Yes, I'm aware of the fact that I probably just caused other people to look with the same false hope.

 

I'm mean. :)

[craig]

Ping, thanks for your input. You've seen him, and been unimpressed. That's meaningful, obviously I haven't. Second, your latter post was pretty interesting; that implied that it wasn't until late in the season that his velocity was "up" to 88-91. That sounds really weak.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Cashner expected to sign this week.

 

Link

 

The plan is for Cashner to arrive in Chicago and take physicals Wednesday, he said. He is scheduled to work out with the major league club and throw a bullpen session Thursday at Wrigley Field. Cashner will also join Len Kasper and Bob Brenly on a Cubs television broadcast at some point in the coming week, he said.

 

As part of his contract with Chicago, Cashner will receive a signing bonus of $1.54 million. He’ll also receive $75,000 that will go toward finishing school, plus bonuses that will coincide with promotions. Moreover, Cashner will receive an invitation to big league spring training in 2009.

[Guest]

Cashner expected to sign this week.

 

Link

 

Cashner spent the past season at TCU in relief, but the Cubs said they were going to let the Montgomery, Texas, native chart his own course as a starter or reliever.

 

Cashner has indicated that he prefers to pitch in relief – and close games.

 

“I’d love to move up as a closer because I’d move a lot faster,” he said.

 

Grr. Even if he relieves down the road, he needs starter innings to hone his breaking pitch. Plus it's worth seeing how his improvement in stuff his jr year translates as a starter.

 

“We’ve pretty much signed everyone we wanted to,” Chicago Scouting Director Tim Wilken said.

 

We'll see about the late summer guys who go to wood bat summer leagues (a la Alex Wilson).

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Cashner expected to sign this week.

 

Link

 

Cashner spent the past season at TCU in relief, but the Cubs said they were going to let the Montgomery, Texas, native chart his own course as a starter or reliever.

 

Cashner has indicated that he prefers to pitch in relief – and close games.

 

“I’d love to move up as a closer because I’d move a lot faster,” he said.

 

Grr. Even if he relieves down the road, he needs starter innings to hone his breaking pitch. Plus it's worth seeing how his improvement in stuff his jr year translates as a starter.

 

“We’ve pretty much signed everyone we wanted to,” Chicago Scouting Director Tim Wilken said.

 

We'll see about the late summer guys who go to wood bat summer leagues (a la Alex Wilson).

 

I guess they don't plan on signing Gray. :( Not that I expected to, but I would have loved it if we did.

[Guest]

UDFA signing: C Pat Mahoney, UConn (Mike Mahoney's brother), link.

[Guest]

I think last week or this coming week was when Sonny Gray was supposed to start summer school at Vanderbilt and thus eliminate any chance of signing with the Cubs. A bunch of incoming Vandy freshman were going to take summer school together.

[Guest]

I'm guessing 37th rounder Erik Hamren signed because he's pitching for Mesa right now.

 

BA has him signed in their database too.

[NCCubFan]

I'm guessing 37th rounder Erik Hamren signed because he's pitching for Mesa right now.

Really going out on a limb with that guess. :D

[UK1679666180]

I'm guessing 37th rounder Erik Hamren signed because he's pitching for Mesa right now.

Really going out on a limb with that guess. :D

 

You can't be that positive about that with the Cubs. :)

[wvcbxl]

I'm guessing 37th rounder Erik Hamren signed because he's pitching for Mesa right now.

Really going out on a limb with that guess. :D

 

You can't be that positive about that with the Cubs. :)

 

It would be hilarious if they messed up the paperwork twice in the same season.

Then again, this is the Cubs....

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2008/266711.html

 

Cubs spent the 18th most on their top 10 rounds of picks (despite not signing their 10th rounder) at $4.587 million.

 

The top 5 spenders were:

 

Kansas City Royals

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

San Francisco Giants

Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Considering all rounds, the Red Sox and Royals both spent in excess of $10 million. :shock:

[UK1679666180]

It's good to see the Rays, Royals, and Bucs all in the top 5 of big spenders.

[sporrer17]

It's good to see the Rays, Royals, and Bucs all in the top 5 of big spenders.

 

If you're not willing to shell out the 10's of millions of dollars it takes to sign good players at the major league level, you better be willing to spend 10 million to lock up the potential prospects you can, so at least you have young talent/trading chips.