Re: 5/25 Cubs (Lilly) @ Pirates (Maholm) 12:35 PM WGN

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

At the time we signed Soriano, I liked him over Lee because first I felt he could play CF and if not CF, then he would play RF. Secondly, I felt his speed would give him an advantage over Lee. However, had I known at the time we were just getting a LF, I would have taken Lee. Lee is better with the bat, and while he's slow in the field, he's no worse than Soriano, and he's cheaper.

[JimSorgi]

We could have signed Carlos Lee for $60,000,000 less.

 

Ummm....no.

[BCVM22]

What were Pat and Ron's reaction to the drop?

 

Brant Brown II: Electric Boogaloo

 

"Fly ball to left! Soriano is back... He's waiting... he's got-- HE DROPPED THE BALL!"

"OH NOOOOO"

"HE DROPPED THE BALL... and the tying run scores."

[erik316wttn]

What were Pat and Ron's reaction to the drop?

 

Brant Brown II: Electric Boogaloo

 

"Fly ball to left! Soriano is back... He's waiting... he's got-- HE DROPPED THE BALL!"

"OH NOOOOO"

"HE DROPPED THE BALL... and the tying run scores."

 

I was driving home for lunch when this happened. This caused me to pretty much scream profanity and almost rear-end the car behind me.

 

I hate you, Soriano.

[BCVM22]

I was driving home for lunch when this happened. This caused me to pretty much scream profanity and almost rear-end the car behind me.

 

I get the coldest, iciest chills up my spine when this sort of thing happens. My eyes see it, my brain processes it, but it's several seconds before I can gather up enough wits to shout profanity in response.

 

Soriano's usually responsible. :|

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

I was driving home for lunch when this happened. This caused me to pretty much scream profanity and almost rear-end the car behind me.

 

I hate you, Soriano.

 

How can you...... uh........ on second thought,..... I don't want to know. :wink:

[erik316wttn]

 

I was driving home for lunch when this happened. This caused me to pretty much scream profanity and almost rear-end the car behind me.

 

I hate you, Soriano.

 

How can you...... uh........ on second thought,..... I don't want to know. :wink:

 

Ha! I just realized my blunder now.

[Schwarber Fan]

Unreal. Total elation to that sinking feeling we all know as Cub fans. As soon and the Pirates tied it, you knew there was no way the Cubs were gonna come back. Everything happens for a reason, and God didn't want me to see the Cubs win in likely my one and only trip to a live game this year. :(

[17 Seconds]

I was driving home for lunch when this happened. This caused me to pretty much scream profanity and almost rear-end the car behind me.

 

I get the coldest, iciest chills up my spine when this sort of thing happens. My eyes see it, my brain processes it, but it's several seconds before I can gather up enough wits to shout profanity in response.

 

Soriano's usually responsible. :|

 

It was a bizarre feeling. For a second you actually don't believed it happened. I just put my hands on my head and felt my face get all warm until I finally realized that it actually happened.

[17 Seconds]

Unreal. Total elation to that sinking feeling we all know as Cub fans. As soon and the Pirates tied it, you knew there was no way the Cubs were gonna come back. Everything happens for a reason, and God didn't want me to see the Cubs win in likely my one and only trip to a live game this year. :(

 

What was it like when it happened live? What were people saying? I mean, I could imagine, but I'd still like to hear it.

[Guest]

Just because the Cubs took the lead and Soriano's misplay happened to be the 27th out rather than the 10th, that means it's a lot more important?

 

It's a leverage thing because you guys are arguing that every situation is exactly the same, which is incorrect.

 

Let's take the usage of Marmol as a primary example. You have Marmol available to get exactly three outs in a given game and you know he's going to give you three outs regardless. No more, no less. Would you rather have him come in with the Cubs up one in the seventh inning, the bases loaded and no outs or in the ninth with the Cubs up one with nobody on and nobody out? It's the former and anyone here with half a brain would pick that situation. Why? Because it's the higher leverage situation and the Cubs are more likely to lose the game in the seventh than in the ninth in that scenario.

 

Soriano making a misplay on the 27th out instead of the 10th out with the situations being the same (same score, runners on, outs, etc.) is obviously going to be more important because it's the 27th out. Just like a guy hitting a solo home run with the game tied in the bottom of the ninth is more important than a guy hitting a home run in the bottom of the first. Why? Because there are fewer outs left in the game and that is the limiting factor of a baseball game.

 

You're right, Marmol is the perfect example. But his argument works against you, not for you.

 

The entire point of leaving Marmol as not the closer is that the 25th-27th outs are no more important than any of the outs before that. All that matters is that he's used in situations that maximize him preventing runs for the game overall. If runs given up in the 9th really were more important, then Marmol should be the closer from now on.

 

Now, there is one time I can buy that the run being given up in the 9th is a problem. That's if the leading team has changed their strategy and not scored as many runs as they otherwise could have because they're leading, such as putting in defensive replacements. The Cubs never did that today. They tried their best to score runs all the way throughout the game. So in today's game, Soriano giving up a run counted the same if it happened in the 7th as in the 9th. The Cubs would have made the same decisions and sent up the same hitters to the plate. The only difference was the psychological impact it had on the team by being the last out, and I'll leave it to everyone individually to decide how much a play like that has a psychological impact on a team.

 

This is where we disagree and I don't think that the Marmol analogy works against me.

 

Looking at it from a pitching perspective is one thing but this is different. Like I said, if Soriano makes an error that gives the Pirates their fifth run in the seventh inning, then the Cubs know that they are down one and need to get one just to tie and two to take the lead, which is obviously different than what they had to do going into the eighth inning. And being down a run vs. being tied is going to change the decisions a manager makes and it's going to change the approach of the hitters at the plate. Everything is not going to play out the way it did because the situation will have changed. Instead of being tied going into the eighth, the Cubs would have been down a run.

 

This is why the error didn't count the same. It's worse in the ninth, especially considering it's the bottom of the ninth, because the Cubs don't have a chance to respond before extra innings and, either way, they only have one inning to do damage. If Soriano makes his error in the seventh, then the Cubs have six more outs to come back since the eighth and ninth innings still have to be played. It's obviously the higher leverage situation both ways because of the outs remaining for both teams. If Soriano catches that fly ball in the seventh, it doesn't end the game since the Pirates would still have outs left. If he catches it in the ninth, the game is over and there's nothing the Pirates can do about it.

[Schwarber Fan]

Unreal. Total elation to that sinking feeling we all know as Cub fans. As soon and the Pirates tied it, you knew there was no way the Cubs were gonna come back. Everything happens for a reason, and God didn't want me to see the Cubs win in likely my one and only trip to a live game this year. :(

 

What was it like when it happened live? What were people saying? I mean, I could imagine, but I'd still like to hear it.

 

Well, as I'm sure you know, all the Pirates fans thought it was gone off the crack of the bat, and the way Soriano runs you can't tell whether he's got a beat on it or he's watching it said into the stands. From my view (1st base side) it looked like it was in his glove and then he dropped it. All the Cubs fans basically yelled "HE DROPPED THE BALL" and all the Pirates fans were just cheering/laughing. After the play, the Pirates fans started to chant "Bartman". It was just a terrible feeling.