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Posted
this may be old news, as i haven't been keeping up with the minors like i used to, but i was somewhat surprised to see fox taking infield at 3b and drew rundle taking infield at 1b last week.

 

also, jose ceda likes to yell really loud and dance a lot. and he's huge.

 

Ceda's weight and size has been much mentioned.

 

A recurring question has been whether he has a weight problem, which could harm his career. (Weight problems tend to increase, not decrease, after age 21!)

 

What was your impression? Is he huge.... as in having a huge frame, a dominant build, and is reasonably fit? Is his weight appropriate for his frame? In other words, "huge" as in very desirably huge? Or is he "huge" as in huger than he should be, as in fat, as in undesirably huge?

 

I saw Mr Ceda during camp and "weight is an issue".

 

He looks like Alf, minus the ump-battering belly.

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Posted
http://www.thecubreporter.com/2008/03/25/updated-cubs-rosters

 

The recent major league cuts have eliminated most of the surprises AZ Phil mentioned earlier:

 

  • Jovan Rosa wins the Peoria 3b job. That means Josh Vitters will stay in Mesa and probably head to Boise,
  • Because Casey McGehee heads to Iowa, Kyle Reynolds heads to Tenn, Josh Lansford to Daytona and Marquez Smith to 2B at Peoria.
  • Dylan Johnston moves from SS at Daytona to LF at Peoria.
  • Koyie Hill to Iowa from the bigs, Jake Muyco to Tenn, Welington Castillo and Steve Clevenger to Daytona, Mario Mercedes and Blake Lalli to Peoria and finally Carlos Perez and Roberto Sabates to extended.
  • Ed Campusano and Justin Berg from AAA to AA. Jose Ceda (yay!), Esmailin Caridad, Alessandro Maestri, Marcos Mateo, Casey Lambert and Jermemy Papelbon from Tenn to Daytona. Robert Hernandez (boo!) and Al Alburquerque from Daytona to Peoria.
  • Matt Camp drops to AA. Jonathan Wyatt and James Adduci to Daytona. Kyler Burke and Leon Johnson to Peoria. Drew Rundle has been demoted from Peoria to extended spring training (ugh).

 

Raisin - thanks much for the update (I hate travelling for work as I don't have the chance to get online and check NSBB often enough!!!) A couple of things struck me:

[*] I'm saddened that Dylan Johnston is back in Peoria and have a hard time believing that he'll be able to cover ground in the outfield effectively. He is one of those guys that someone with the Cubs has infatuation with and I just don't see it. His defense has been consistently awful and bat *extremely* sporadic.

[*] Gotta wonder how long Blake Lalli is going to hang around...he was with Peoria all season last year and for a decent number of games in 2006. He's got a good bat, but has been like Jake Fox - a catcher in search of a defensive position

[*] I hope that Vitters starting out in extended doesn't turn into the Colvin situation from last year - we want to see him in Peoria! No skipping us and going straight from Boise to Daytona!

[*] It's too bad that Josh Lansford isn't going to get an opportunity to move past Daytona...based on his performance in the AZ Fall League, he's ready for AA. Gotta wonder what we're going to do with so much talent at 3B...

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Posted

I don't see any way Vitters misses Peoria. Colvin was a different case - a college kid who went to Boise the season he signed and skipped up to Daytona in his first full season.

 

I think Lansford could use the time in high-A with his patience (.032 IsoD) and lack of power.

Posted

Cal, much thanks for the links, both the Knoxville report and AZ Phil's stuff. The Knoxville story obviously wasn't too up-to-date, because almost half of the guys discussed had already been sent to Daytona according to Phil's stuff. Much of the Knoxville info still seemed based on Fleita-gush back during the winter, in which he discussed a bunch of guys skipping up to AA. While it's possible the fact that they aren't (Ceda, Lansford, castillo, Maestri, Lambert....) because they've had disappointing camps, I think more likely it's just that Fleita guys is just always over-the-top hyperbole.

 

Between the Knoxville article and Phil's stuff, there have been several things of interest, apart from the actual player assignments as they currently stand.

 

1. On Castillo: "He has by far the best arm we have from the big leagues down through the system," Bailey, a former minor league catcher, said. "In the game last week, he threw from his knees and the ball from his hand to second base never dropped more than two inches. The guy running was out by eight to 10 steps. "He has Pudge Rodriguez potential. His release time to second base is off the charts." That's coming from an ex-catcher, so hopefully those comments have some substance beyond typical hype.

 

2. Bailey on Caridad, "He has a great arm and a live fastball."

 

3. Not sure if Bailey said as much, or if the reporter was just assuming. But for AA, he had Samardz, Veal, Berg, and Atkins locked in as the first four starters, with no clue for #5. Maybe that's just false reasoning. But during the winter Fleita had talked about Berg to bullpen. I like the idea of Berg remaining in rotation and getting more work, he's still pretty young and his upside is pretty high. I still have an imagination that he might have the potential to kind of do a Kevin Hart-like emergence this year.

 

4. That colvin is still or again injured, bad elbow. Bailey suggested he might start to play the field this week, but we'll see. Cal or others, do you know Colvin's injury history? Is this elbow the same deal that knocked him out of the world games (or whatever they were actually called) this winter, and had him relatively inactive in camp? Or is this something different? At draft Colvin's arm wasn't buzzed a lot; but last summer the Cubs said it was really good. It would be unfortunate if Colvin would have lasting throwing problems, so that instead of a CF/RF candidate we'd be looking at another guy whose arm would end up in the class of Juan Pierre, Jacque Jones, and Matt Murton, such that he'd be limited to left field.

 

5. Az Phi had a number of interesting comments following his article, in response to questions. Included was discussion about Daytona and Peoria rotations. Not sure how much is "inside scoop" versus the same kind of educated guessing that you or I might make. But he said that Daytona has 3 sure rotation guys to start: Russell (obvious now, although during winter I'd expected but not been sure that he'd skip; nice to read Phil claiming he's been looking really good), Papelbon, and Maestri. I don't think anybody has suggested that Papelbon is viewed as a long-term rotation guy; this would appear to be strictly for developmental reasons, more innings. Maestri, though, is news. I'm very interested in him, since he's shown some perfect elements: allegedly fast fastball (although that may be Fleita-gush exaggeration), excellent slider (arguably the best in the system), excellent control, and outstanding K/W/WHIP. Would be interesting to see him translate the success he had in relief last year to rotation. Probably it's again a reliever getting innings for development reasons; force him to work on his offspeed, and force him to work on the change or cutter or something so that he has something to use against lefties. (My understanding is that he had a lot more trouble versus lefties, and as a reliever he'll see a lot of those if he makes the majors.)

There has been other talk that Ceda was also going to be given rotation innings for development reasons, so it's conceivable that Daytona could show a rotation in which 3 of it's starters are really relief prospects in Ceda, Papelbon, and Maestri.

Phil suggested that Arik Hempy might be a lead candidate for a rotatation spot there, too. That's kind of interesting. After his surgery, he didn't throw very hard, or all that well, last year, and was obviously a late draft pick. But I thought there was some speculation that he was a big guy who had thrown pretty hard pre-injury. If a year later he's got more velocity back, maybe he's got a shot to emerge into a legit prospect?

Phil suggested that Muldowney and Blackford aren't in the rotation mix at present because of their injury rehab status, but that perhaps later on they might move in. I admit I don't really understand the Blackford stuff; he's always seemed really sub-average to me. If other guys need to get out of the way to make a spot for him, either he has more talent than his performance or anything I've read before has ever suggested. Or else he's just nothing much, and it might reflect how limited are the other guys currently in the mix who might get displaced by him if/when he's 100%.

 

6. For Peoria, Phil speculated that the three rotation locks were Hernandez, Huseby, and Zach Ashwood. Ashwood is somewhat interesting; 6'4" lefty, had some projection left when drafted, and by some accounts threw in the low 90's pre-draft. Pitched pretty well for Boise, and I think his composite numbers mask that he struggled some early but then was quite good down the stretch. (In his last two starts, he had 14K to 1 walk). Would be interesting if he's got some potential.

 

Phil suggested that "the 4th and 5th will probably be either Alburquerque, R. Acosta, Cabrera, Pawelek, or Rhee. If R. Acosta, Cabrera, or Rhee don't make the Peoria rotation, then they would probably go to EXST and start there, moving to Boise (as rotation starters) in June, with a promotion to Peoria possible at any time." I wonder if hatley might also be in that mix; otherwise why would he even be with the Peoria group? Seems premature to just have him in relief this early in his development. If Boise ends up with Acosta, Rhee, Cabrera, and Hatley, plus maybe Redmond or Antigua or a draftee, they could have a pretty jazzy rotation.

Posted
Cal or others, do you know Colvin's injury history?

 

Not sure, but the next article from the Knoxville News Sentinel said that Colvin was already back playing the outfield already. Now that Dopirak has been released, I'm not sure if that means more starts for Colvin at 1B or if someone else will take that spot on a regular basis.

Posted
Phil suggested that "the 4th and 5th will probably be either Alburquerque, R. Acosta, Cabrera, Pawelek, or Rhee.

 

I have Dustin Sasser in that mix as well. I see the rotation at Peoria looking like: Hempy, Hernandez, Sasser, Huseby, and either Ashwood or Pawelek (the other going to the bullpen). That's three lefties, but oh well. I don't think Acosta, Cabrera, or Rhee are ready for full-season yet and why rush them at their age? Lots of solid names though for Boise and Mesa even before the draft!

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Posted

Colvin had shoulder problems that held him out in the winter (the same ones that got him on the DL last August).

 

I think Chris Siegfried will be in Daytona's rotation over Arik Hempy. I'm a bit disappointed that Hernandez returned to the Peoria camp, especially since the names in Daytona's rotation aren't all that great.

 

I also don't see it as rushing Cabrera to send him to full season at age 19 after pitching at Boise last season. Not as sure about Acosta but there's precedence for HS guys who got limited innings the season before in Mesa and Boise to make a successful jump to low-A in their first full season. It sounds like Acosta has done well in camp. With Rhee, it sounds like he's pretty polished for a teenager making his pro debut though but who knows. Generally there's a guy who makes the Peoria rotation who surprises us because we didn't expect him to move up that quickly (Rafael Dolis last year).

 

We could always hope that Pawelek breaks out unexpectedly, right?

Posted

cal, I'm also interested in Siegfried. There's really a lot of guys who, if they were selected for rotation, I'd immediately be interested and intrigued. Wouldn't that in itself suggest the org saw some potential, and maybe they've progressed or impressed or gotten faster or something? And a lot who, if they got selected for rotation and then pitched a copule of good games, I'd be enthused about. Lefties Hempy and Siegfried are both in that group, especially if they were selected and showed success at Daytona. If Caridad showed up in Daytona's rotation, and had some zippy box scores, we'd get prettyinterested pretty fast in him, too, I suspect.

 

I was surprised that Phil still had Redmond and Hatley in Peoria's bunch. Probably the list with Peoria means very little. If you look at the Peoria vs Boise bunches, Kevin Kreier may be the only American-born guy without injury limitation in the boise list. So maybe the Boise pitchers just work together and have instructions in Spanish rather than English, and the guys with any talent and any experience who are American-born just stay with the Peoria group until cuts are made? Hatley, Redmond, Acosta, maybe they all get the cut then.

 

If Cabrera were to make it, that would be pretty cool. If nothing else, that would suggest that they think his arm is sound. When he had arm trouble last year, I always figure there's at least a shot that a guy's career is shot or extremely delayed. If he's healthy, that's a big deal IMO. Really if any of Acosta, Cabrera, hatley, Rhee, or Redmond was to show up in Peoria's rotation, I'd be pretty interested. Any of those seems to have some arm strength such that they might justify as prospects if they can throw strikes. Those guys would be a lot more intriguing to me than wildman Pawelek or an experienced short lefty like Sasser.

Posted

With Tim Lahey being claimed off waivers and Ascanio and Henderson likely headed to the DL, the Iowa Cubs are looking a little battered. I assumed Lahey and Ascanio would have ended up there (with Lahey officially being traded to us). Henderson would have been an injury-replacement, but he himself is injured.

 

I wonder if the Cubs will be scouring the waiver wire for older 4-A pitchers who have been cut at the end of spring training to fill in those spots temporarily? The other option is to move some AA guys up more quickly than planned, but I hate that option, especially since AA is usually considered the better league for real prospects.

 

I also wonder about last-minute trades. Like what might we get if we tried to move Murton or Marquis or...? I look at our minor league system, and I am generally pleased with the potential and the depth, but we lack superstar quality guys. I see our system producing bullpen guys for many years to come, and maybe a few starting pitchers, but I worry about position players (especially since one of the bigger names - Dopirak - was just cut with no interest from other teams).

 

I'd hate to see guys like Cory Bailey, Ryan O'Malley, and J.R. Mathes making the team at Iowa, but I guess they are almost locks to make it temporarily due to all the injuries!

Posted
Cal or others, do you know Colvin's injury history?

 

Not sure, but the next article from the Knoxville News Sentinel said that Colvin was already back playing the outfield already. Now that Dopirak has been released, I'm not sure if that means more starts for Colvin at 1B or if someone else will take that spot on a regular basis.

 

Never mind:

 

Going into Minor League Camp, the Cubs had two first-basemen who will be Minor League Free-agents after this season: Brian Dopirak and Matt Craig.

 

Craig spent most of Minor League Camp assigned to the AAA Iowa squad, but with the arrival of Micah Hoffpauir from Big League camp at HoHoKam, it was only a question of whether Craig would get released, or whether he would possibly take Dopirak's job at AA Tennessee.

 

Well, it turned out to be the latter. The Cubs decided to keep Craig around for another year, and have him return to AA (where he has spent most of the past four seasons) and play 1B there, And that decision meant the end of Brian Dopirak as a Cub.

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Posted
Cal or others, do you know Colvin's injury history?

 

Not sure, but the next article from the Knoxville News Sentinel said that Colvin was already back playing the outfield already. Now that Dopirak has been released, I'm not sure if that means more starts for Colvin at 1B or if someone else will take that spot on a regular basis.

 

Never mind:

 

Going into Minor League Camp, the Cubs had two first-basemen who will be Minor League Free-agents after this season: Brian Dopirak and Matt Craig.

 

Craig spent most of Minor League Camp assigned to the AAA Iowa squad, but with the arrival of Micah Hoffpauir from Big League camp at HoHoKam, it was only a question of whether Craig would get released, or whether he would possibly take Dopirak's job at AA Tennessee.

 

Well, it turned out to be the latter. The Cubs decided to keep Craig around for another year, and have him return to AA (where he has spent most of the past four seasons) and play 1B there, And that decision meant the end of Brian Dopirak as a Cub.

 

Also in that entry, AZ Phil mentioned some more guys getting demoted (including my guy Siegfried going from Daytona to Peoria and Hatley and possibly Ryan Acosta going from Peoria to extended). He mentioned the guys who appear to have locked in on rotation spots:

 

TCR[/url]"]IOWA: Also, at present the starting rotation at Iowa appears to be Sean Gallagher, Mark Holliman, J. R. Mathes, and two others still TBD (Sean Marshall would be one of the other two if he gets sent down)

 

TENNESSEE: Also, at present the starting rotation at Tennessee appears to be Jeff Samardzija, Donald Veal, Mitch Atkins, Tanner Watson, and one other still TBD (probably either Jesse Estrada, Justin Berg, or Gregory Reinhard)

 

DAYTONA: Also, at present the starting rotation at Daytona appears to be James Russell, Alessandro Maestri, Jeremy Papelbon, Marco Carrillo, and Arik Hempy.

 

PEORIA: At present, the starting rotation at Peoria would appear to be Zach Ashwood, Robert Hernandez, Chris Huseby, and two from amongst Alberto Alburquerque, Dustin Sasser, Dae-Eun Rhee, and Alberto Cabrera. If Rhee and/or Cabrera don't make the Peoria starting rotation, they will almost certainly be kept at Fitch Park (EXST) where they can start.

 

Yes, that would be this Tanner Watson who will be 26 this June and has never gotten above high-A (and sports a 6.16 ERA at high-A).

Posted
Yes, that would be this Tanner Watson who will be 26 this June and has never gotten above high-A (and sports a 6.16 ERA at high-A).

 

I read that also, but thought they were possibly temporarily starting him in the hopes of seeing what he has as quickly as possible in order to decide whether to cut him or keep him for the bullpen. I can't imagine him starting over several of the other candidates during the regular season. I hope I'm right!

Posted
Yes, that would be this Tanner Watson who will be 26 this June and has never gotten above high-A (and sports a 6.16 ERA at high-A).

 

I read that also, but thought they were possibly temporarily starting him in the hopes of seeing what he has as quickly as possible in order to decide whether to cut him or keep him for the bullpen. I can't imagine him starting over several of the other candidates during the regular season. I hope I'm right!

 

Wrigley, who did you have in mind for the several other candidates for AA? Harben's arm may not be much (the observation was that he didn't look like he had much of anything earlier in camp). They may want to develop Berg as a reliever, under the assumption he may reach the majors as a reliever but just doesn't have the package to start. They may decide they'd rather develop their relievers in Daytona's rotation (Papelbon, Maestri) than in WTenn's.

 

So who's left? Looks to me like roster fillers in spots 4,5 at AA; roster fillers for most of Iowa rotation; relievers or ??? for most of Daytona's rotation.

 

We just don't have that much volume of pitchers for rotation, since so many of our interesting pitchers are really relievers, not starters.

 

I suppose you could throw Santo or Reinhold or one of those roster-filler types in there.

Posted
Wrigley, who did you have in mind for the several other candidates for AA? Harben's arm may not be much (the observation was that he didn't look like he had much of anything earlier in camp). They may want to develop Berg as a reliever, under the assumption he may reach the majors as a reliever but just doesn't have the package to start. They may decide they'd rather develop their relievers in Daytona's rotation (Papelbon, Maestri) than in WTenn's.

 

So who's left? Looks to me like roster fillers in spots 4,5 at AA; roster fillers for most of Iowa rotation; relievers or ??? for most of Daytona's rotation.

 

We just don't have that much volume of pitchers for rotation, since so many of our interesting pitchers are really relievers, not starters.

 

I suppose you could throw Santo or Reinhold or one of those roster-filler types in there.

 

I would prefer the following pitchers to be starters at Tennessee (in order of preference):

 

1. Jeff Samardzija (We invested so much in him, we need to see what he can do in the rotation.)

 

2. Donald Veal (I'm glad that he is getting another chance to start - one bad year command-wise and stuff-wise, but he still has time.)

 

3. Justin Berg (I love his stuff. I've been waiting for him to put it all together for over 2 years now. I think his peripherals are bad because he is a groundball pitcher. In the lower minors defense rarely saves the pitcher. He has a low strikeout total because he knows he's not going to give up many homeruns or line drives, so he pitches to contact. He also needs to improve his location/command. His stuff moves like Zambrano's and it took him a while to command it too.)

 

4. Chris Shaver (I'm not sure where he is at in his rehab yet, but before his surgery he dominated AA. Once I hear a scouting report on him as of today, I'll know better where I would prefer he pitches. I would think he'd be ready though from AA's rotation.)

 

5. Adam Harben (Almost forgot him. Similar to Shaver. Had success at AA but how he recovers from surgery determines where he should go. He seemed to be OK at the end of last season when he started three games for Mesa.)

 

6. Mitch Atkins (Not great stuff, but has had success starting and deserves to stay there until he proves he can't handle it! AA is a real test though.)

 

7. Greg Reinhard (Despite average numbers over the years, Reinhard has 4 pitches, was a 6th rounder only 3 years ago, and has experience starting.)

 

8. Jesse Estrada (Bad strikeout to IP ratio; bad H/IP ratio, 31st round draft pick, has had more success relieving than starting.)

 

9. Tanner Watson (Struggled with control in the Seattle organization; peripherals didn't improve much when repeating levels; Frontier League is a really poor independent league & still he had bad peripherals; Repertiore of pitches not impressive - 88-92 FB, ok breaking and off-speed stuff.)

 

10. Darin Downs (Similar stuff to Watson, but better curveball and slower fastball. Lefty. I'd keep him in the pen since he showed some success last year - projects as a nice LOOGY.)

 

11. Joel Santo (Apparently, he's been released, but I'd prefer him in the pen because of his ability to get his FB up to 98 mph in short spurts. He might have better control and more command of his slider and changeup if he only pitched an inning or so every other night.)

Posted
I would prefer the following pitchers to be starters at Tennessee (in order of preference):

 

1. Jeff Samardzija ..

2. Donald Veal ..

3. Justin Berg ..

4. Chris Shaver ...

5. Adam Harben...

6. Mitch Atkins..

7. Greg Reinhard ..

8. Jesse Estrada ..

9. Tanner Watson (Struggled with control in the Seattle organization; peripherals didn't improve much when repeating levels; Frontier League is a really poor independent league & still he had bad peripherals; Repertiore of pitches not impressive - 88-92 FB, ok breaking and off-speed stuff.)

10. Darin Downs (Similar stuff to Watson, but better curveball and slower fastball. Lefty. I'd keep him in the pen since he showed some success last year - projects as a nice LOOGY.)

10. Joel Santo (Apparently, he's been released, but I'd prefer him in the pen because of his ability to get his FB up to 98 mph in short spurts. He might have better control and more command of his slider and changeup if he only pitched an inning or so every other night.)

 

Thanks for that thoughtful list. I think that's pretty fair. Of the guys ahead of Watson, Harben and Shaver obviously have rehab issues, not ready.

 

Berg is a big-league prospect with a big-league arm. I hope he's still doing rotation. As a fan I prefer prospects dominating the innings, knowing which days I really want to check the box scores, and getting the more detailed scouting reports that attenders write about starters. But if for whatever reason the Cubs decide that it's better for Berg the prospect to get in a year of relief experience, I defer to their judgment on that. With you, I personally hope he starts, even though his big-league future, if any, is more likely in relief.

 

The other three, Estrada, Reinhard, and Watson, are roster-fillers, not prospects. I don't think any have any meaningful likelihood of making the majors in rotation certainly, or in relief either (except for maybe Watson; always a shot to get a shot as a token lefty). It's probably discouraging that they don't have anybody more promising than Watson to fill that spot.

 

As you say, hopefully by June somebody better will turn up. Papelbon or Maestri might do very well in Daytona. Or Harben or Shaver might be built up enough to handle that role.

Posted
Not that rosters have been set yet, but I'm always trying to figure out why the Cubs do things the way they do so that I have an easier time making predictions in the future. That being said, as I look over the Cubs 40-man roster and try to think down the line if we acquire players in trades, I see very few people who can be taken off without them being claimed. Adam Harben looks like an excellent candidate to be de-rostered. Unfortunately, if he is a starter at AA, then more teams are likely to take a chance on him. If we have him pitching relief in Daytona, people might assume he's not very advanced and not risk a roster spot on him. This could be a reason for him starting in High A instead of AA. Just thinking.
Posted
So, pardon for not keeping up with the topic, but as far as I can tell, all of the aggressive promotions listed earlier in the topic (guys skipping one level and such) are turning out to be wrong, correct? No Wellington Castillo at Tennessee, no Antigua at Boise, no Burke at Daytona, etc?
Posted
So, pardon for not keeping up with the topic, but as far as I can tell, all of the aggressive promotions listed earlier in the topic (guys skipping one level and such) are turning out to be wrong, correct? No Wellington Castillo at Tennessee, no Antigua at Boise, no Burke at Daytona, etc?

 

Yeah - Jonathan Wyatt and Tony Thomas seem to be the only ones to have been double promoted (from Boise to Daytona) if they stick, which I think they will.

 

James Russell and Arik Hempy also went to Daytona with very little Peoria experience. (I think Hempy could still see Peoria this year, but Russell seems to be a lock for Daytona.)

 

I'm glad to see players at their appropriate levels to start the year. I'd rather see promotions throughout the year rather than having them start above their level. Some people disagree, but whatever!

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Posted
Dae-Eun Rhee will pitch in Peoria to start the year.

 

"Our scouts are making our coaches look really good," Fleita said. "At the beginning of the spring, I would've guessed he would have stayed here in extended and then gone to Boise. But he's making the Peoria club and it's not even close."

 

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/gen/articles/printer_friendly/milb/y2008/m03/d24/c373430.jsp

 

Loved the bit about the 94-95 mph velo. Nice find, Wrigley Rat.

Posted

Anyone else concerned about Vitters? He didn't do well is Senior year in HS, his rookie year at Mesa, and hasn't had a good Spring.

 

Its not panic time yet, but you have to wonder if they'd rather have Parker over Vitters despite less than a year gone by.

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