2008 NCAA Tournament - Mock Selection/Discussion

[bukie]

Here we go again, the fourth annual NSBB mock NCAA tournament selection committee.

 

Whoever would like to participate is welcome to, but please, if you are going to participate, be willing and able to go through the entire process from March 13-16. My ultimate goal is to get 8-10 participants, but we've done it the last few years with 4-5, so things can be done either way.

 

After each step of the process, I will post the results, so everyone can see the process, even if they don't/can't commit to participate in it.

 

Here is the commitment/process:

 

1) Over the next 10 days: Anyone who wants to participate in the committee, please reply to this thread, listing your favorite team (you can be that team "rep"), and list any teams you think deserve consideration for an at-large bid, especially teams that you don't see anyone else listing. I'll make a general list, but I am more than capable of forgetting or neglecting deserving teams, especially teams that I don't see play regularly.

2) March 13 (Thursday): By midnight (CST), PM me a list of the 34 teams you believe deserve at-large bids, assuming no automatic bids. At this point, ranking is not an issue, just teams in the field. Some of your potential at-large teams, like Butler, may have already won their conference tournament by then and guaranteed themselves an auto bid, so ignore them for this list. Also, do not include your team on the list of 34.

3) From those lists, any team that shows up on 75% of the lists is IN (your team is not counted against your list), no further discussion. I will post the teams that are IN, along with other teams that have clinched automatic bids, and the remainder of teams in consideration. I will also then post a list of assumed "auto" bids from conference tournaments that have not yet completed (using the highest remaining RPI team still in the conference tournament).

4) March 14 (Friday): By midnight (CST), PM me your top 16, ranked in order. If you believe a team's ranking still depends on further conference games (say, whether Kansas or Texas gets a #1 depends on the future tournament results), indicate that somehow (like, BIG 12 TOURNAMENT WINNER here, BIG 12 TOURNAMENT RUNNER-UP here, etc)

5) Using the top 16 information, I'll set up a pod allocation to best protect the higher seeds. At this point, the top 16 seeds will be pretty much set, barring special circumstances specified (like a tie in aggregate ranking, or special conference tournament situations)

6) March 15 (Saturday): By midnight (CST), PM me a ranking from 17 to 65, including auto bids for teams and conferences not in at-large consideration.

7) Sunday morning, I'll post the 1-65 ranking, and fashion a possible bracket based on those rankings, made as balanced as possible.

8) If anyone has further discrepancies or arguments, discussion will remain open until the actual bracket is released.

 

To participate in the committee, reply in this thread with "your team", and list any teams you think deserve at-large consideration that nobody else has mentioned, just so nobody forgets any teams when they make their lists of 34 at-large teams.

 

Some helpful resources:

Inside the Bunker, an interesting look-in on the committee from 3 years ago, and the process involved.

Ken Pomeroy's RPI, Ratings, and Efficiency/Tempo stats.

Basketball Prospectus - Yes, the statistics page is just the link to Pomeroy's site, but there's fantastic analysis within the articles, specifically John Gasaway's stats on Points per possession (PPP)

CollegeRPI, by Jerry Palm

Sagarin Ratings

Edited March 10, 2008 by bukie

[bukie]

Current committee:

Name                         Representing
------------------------------------------
bukie                        Illinois
ISUCubsFan                   Iowa State
Flames24Rulz                 Southern Illinois
Andy                         Notre Dame
SouthSideRyan                Illinois

 

Auto Bids:

-----------------

America East - UMBC

Atlantic 10 - Temple

Atlantic Coast

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

Big 12

Big East - Pittsburgh

Big Sky - Portland State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten

Big West - Cal St. Fullerton

Colonial - George Mason

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon League - Butler

Ivy League - Cornell

Metro Atlantic - Siena

Mid American - Kent State

Mid Eastern - Coppin State

Missouri Valley - Drake

Mountain West - UNLV

Northeast - Mount St. Mary's

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac 10 - UCLA

Patriot League - American

Southeastern

Southern - Davidson

Southland

Southwestern - Mississippi Valley State

Summit League - Oral Roberts

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

West Coast - San Diego

Western Athletic - Boise State

 

Teams that deserve at-large consideration:

----------------------------------------------------

Arizona

Arizona State

Arkansas

Baylor

BYU

California

Clemson

Connecticut

Creighton

Dayton

Duke

Florida

Florida State

Georgetown

Gonzaga

Houston

Illinois State

Indiana

Kansas

Kansas State

Kent State

Louisville

Marquette

Maryland

Massachusetts

Memphis

Miami-Florida

Michigan State

Minnesota

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Nebraska

New Mexico

North Carolina

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pittsburgh

Purdue

Rhode Island

South Alabama

Southern California

Southern Illinois

St. Joseph's

St. Mary's

Stanford

Syracuse

Tennessee

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

UAB

UCLA

UNLV

Vanderbilt

Villanova

Virginia Commonwealth

Wake Forest

Washington State

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Xavier

Edited March 16, 2008 by bukie

[bukie]

Results of Thursday, March 13 (34 at-large teams).

 

Here are the selections

                 |             Voter                 |
Team             | bukie | Flames | Andy | ISU | SSR |
------------------------------------------------------
Xavier           |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Duke             |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
UNC              |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Clemson          |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Wisconsin        |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Indiana          |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Purdue           |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Michigan State   |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Kansas           |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Texas            |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Kansas State     |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Pittsburgh       |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Louisville       |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Georgetown       |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Marquette        |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Connecticut      |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Notre Dame       |   1   |   1    |  X   |  1  |  1  |
West Virginia    |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Memphis          |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
UCLA             |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Washington St.   |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Stanford         |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Tennessee        |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Vanderbilt       |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Gonzaga          |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
St. Mary's       |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
BYU              |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Mississippi St.  |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |     |
South Alabama    |   1   |   1    |  1   |  1  |     |
Oklahoma         |   1   |   1    |      |  1  |  1  |
USC              |   1   |        |  1   |  1  |  1  |
Kent State       |   1   |   1    |      |  1  |     |
Miami (FL)       |   1   |   1    |      |  1  |     |
UNLV             |   1   |        |  1   |     |  1  |
Arizona          |       |   1    |  1   |     |  1  |
Oregon           |       |        |  1   |     |  1  |
Dayton           |       |   1    |      |     |     |
Ohio State       |       |        |  1   |     |     |
Kentucky         |       |        |  1   |     |     |
Arkansas         |       |        |      |  1  |     |
Texas A&M        |       |        |      |     |  1  |
Arizona State    |       |        |      |     |  1  |

 

So, the following 30 teams are IN, no further discussion:

Xavier

Duke

UNC

Clemson

Wisconsin

Indiana

Purdue

Michigan State

Kansas

Texas

Kansas State

Pittsburgh

Louisville

Georgetown

Marquette

Connecticut

Notre Dame

West Virginia

Memphis

UCLA

Washington St.

Stanford

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Gonzaga

St. Mary's

BYU

Mississippi St.

South Alabama

Oklahoma

USC

 

These 4 teams were close to in, needed one more vote:

Kent State

Miami (FL)

UNLV

Arizona

 

Other available at-large possibilities:

Oregon

Dayton

Ohio State

Kentucky

Arkansas

Texas A&M

Arizona State

All other at-large candidates I have noted in the above post

 

 

The following conference representatives are not in at-large discussion, and will thus be at the bottom of the bracket:

America East (Maryland-BC)

Belmont (ASun)

Portland State (BSky)

Winthrop (BSouth)

Big West (UC Santa Barbara)

George Mason (Colonial)

Cornell (Ivy)

Siena (MAAC)

MEAC (Morgan State)

Mount St. Mary's (NEC)

Austin Peay (OVC)

Patriot (American)

Southland (Stephen F. Austin)

SWAC (Alabama State)

Oral Roberts (Summit)

WAC (Utah State)

Edited March 14, 2008 by bukie

[bukie]

Results of Friday, March 14:

 

Voter results:

	                     Voter					
Teams             bukie  Flames  SSR  Andy  ISU Total
North Carolina      16     16     15   16    16    79
UCLA                15     13     16   12    13    69
Memphis             12     15     13   14    15    69
Tennessee           13     14      9   15    14    65
Kansas              14     10     14   11  10.5  59.5
Duke                 9     11     12   11    12    55
Texas               11     12      8   11  10.5  52.5
Georgetown          10      9     11   10     9    49
Wisconsin            8      5     10    7     8    38
Stanford             6      6      7    8     6    33
Xavier               5      8      1    6     7    27
Louisville           7      4      2    5     5    23
Drake                4      3      6    4     1    18
Butler               3      2      4    2     2    13
Vanderbilt                  7                       7
Notre Dame                              3     3     6
Connecticut          1                        4     5
Washington State                   5                5
Purdue                     1       3                4
Marquette            2                  1           3

 

So, rather than having a distinct 16, it appears we have a solid top 14 of

 

1. North Carolina

2. UCLA

3. Memphis

4. Tennessee

5. Kansas (for now)

6. Duke

7. Texas (for now)

8. Georgetown

9. Wisconsin

10. Stanford

11. Xavier

12. Louisville

13. Drake

14. Butler

 

As for the bottom seeds (13-16...#49-65 overall):

 

Teams                    Average
Oral Roberts               15.25
George Mason               15.25
San Diego                   14.5
Siena                         12
Cornell                       12
WAC (New Mexico St)           11
Big West (CS Fullerton)     9.75
Winthrop                       9
Belmont                     8.75
Austin Peay                    8
AE (UMBC)                    7.5
American                    7.25
Portland State                 6
MEAC (Morgan St)               3
Mount St. Mary's            2.75
Southland (TX-Ar)            2.5
SWAC (Miss Valley St)          1

 

So, seeds 49-65 (for the time being) are:

49. Oral Roberts

50. George Mason

51. San Diego

52. Siena

53. Cornell

54. WAC (New Mexico St.)

55. Big West (CS Fullerton)

56. Winthrop

57. Belmont

58. Austin Peay

59. America East (UMBC)

60. American

61. Portland State

62. MEAC (Morgan St.)

63. Mount St. Mary's

64. Southland (TX-Arlington)

65. SWAC (Miss. Valley St.)

Edited March 15, 2008 by bukie

[bukie]

Reserved for results of Saturday, March 15:

 

Results of 15-48 ranking:

 

	                      Voter				
Teams          bukie  Andy  Flames  ISU  Total
Connecticut      34    32     31     34    131
Notre Dame       31    34     27     32    124
Washington St.   33    26     29     33    121
Marquette        32    33     30     26    121
Pittsburgh       25    28     34     29    116
Vanderbilt       28    27     33     25    113
Michigan State   26    30     32     24    112
Clemson          30    25     28     27    110
Purdue           29    29     24     28    110
Indiana          23    31     26     30    110
USC              27    23     20     31    101
Gonzaga          22    24     18     23     87
Oklahoma         20    20     25     22     87
West Virginia    24    21     22     17     84
BYU              17    18     23     21     79
Kent State       19    15     21     13     68
Arkansas         18    17     15     18     68
Mississippi St.  21     9     17     19     66
St. Mary's       15    16     12     20     63
UNLV             16    22     11     12     61
Texas A&M        10    19     16     14     59
Miami-Florida    13    11     19     15     58
Kansas State     14     3     14     16     47
Kentucky         11    13      8     10     42
South Alabama     8    10     13      9     40
St. Joseph's     12    12      7      8     39
Baylor            4     6      9     11     30
Arizona           7     4     10      7     28
Davidson          9    14      2      2     27
Illinois State    6     7      4      3     20
Temple            3     5      3      6     17
Western Kentucky  2     8      1      1     12
Villanova         5            5            10
Virginia Tech           1      6             7
Oregon                  2             4      6
Arizona State                         5      5
VCU               1                          1

 

If the fifth member wants to send me his ranking I will still add them in.

 

So, 1-65:

North Carolina

Memphis

UCLA

Tennessee

Kansas

Duke

Texas

Georgetown

Wisconsin

Stanford

Xavier

Louisville

Drake

Butler

Connecticut

Notre Dame

Washington St.

Marquette

Pittsburgh

Vanderbilt

Michigan State

Clemson

Purdue

Indiana

USC

Gonzaga

Oklahoma

West Virginia

BYU

Kent State

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

St. Mary's

UNLV

Texas A&M

Miami-Florida

Kansas State

Kentucky

South Alabama

St. Joseph's

Baylor

Arizona

Davidson

Illinois State

Temple

Western Kentucky

Villanova

Virginia Tech

George Mason

Oral Roberts

San Diego

Siena

Cornell

Boise State

CS Fullerton

Winthrop

Belmont

UMBC

Austin Peay

American

Portland State

Southland (TX Arlington)

Mount St. Mary's

Coppin State

Miss Valley State

 

Last 4 out:

Oregon

Arizona State

VCU

Dayton (they had a vote, but the voter forgot to put Davidson and W. Kentucky in the field, so I just removed the last 2 from their list and added them)

 

So, here's the S-curve (remember, it snakes):

1.   North Carolina      UCLA           Memphis           Tennessee     
2.   Georgetown          Texas          Duke              Kansas        
3.   Wisconsin           Stanford       Xavier            Louisville    
4.   Notre Dame          Connecticut    Butler            Drake         
5.   Washington St.      Marquette      Pittsburgh        Vanderbilt      
6.   Indiana             Purdue         Clemson           Michigan State  
7.   USC                 Gonzaga        Oklahoma          West Virginia   
8.   Mississippi St.     Arkansas       Kent State        BYU             
9.   St. Mary's          UNLV           Texas A&M         Miami-Florida   
10.  St. Joseph's        South Alabama  Kentucky          Kansas State    
11.  Baylor              Arizona        Davidson          Illinois State  
12.  Virginia Tech       Villanova      Western Kentucky  Temple          
13.  George Mason        Oral Roberts   San Diego         Siena
14.  Winthrop            CS Fullerton   Boise State       Cornell
15.  Belmont             UMBC           Austin Peay       American
16.  Coppin State        Mt St. Mary's  Southland (UTAR)  Portland State
16b. Miss. Valley St.

Edited March 16, 2008 by bukie

[bukie]

Committee's final proposed bracket:

 

East Region - Charlotte, NC                                             West Region - Phoenix, AZ
1 - North Carolina  - Raleigh, NC Pod                               Anaheim, CA Pod -    UCLA - 1
16 - Coppin State/Mississippi Valley State                                  Mount St. Mary's - 16
8 - Oklahoma                                                                         Arkansas - 8
9 - UNLV                                                                           St. Mary's - 9

4 - Notre Dame - Tampa, FL Pod                                    Tampa, FL Pod - Connecticut - 4
13 - George Mason                                                               Oral Roberts - 13
5 - Washington State                                                                  Clemson - 5
12 - Temple                                                                           Baylor - 12

2 - Georgetown - Birmingham, AL Pod                               Little Rock, AR Pod - Texas - 2
15 - Belmont                                                                            UMBC - 15
7 - Gonzaga                                                                     West Virginia - 7
10 - Kansas State                                                               St. Joseph's - 10

3 - Xavier - Washington DC Pod                                      Omaha, NE Pod - Wisconsin - 3
14 - Winthrop                                                                   CS Fullerton - 14
6 - Indiana                                                                        Vanderbilt - 6
11 - Baylor                                                                         Davidson - 11


1 - Tennessee  - Birmingham, AL Pod                             Little Rock, AR Pod - Memphis - 1
16 - Portland State                                                          Texas-Arlington - 16
8 - BYU                                                                     Mississippi State - 8
9 - Miami, FL                                                                       Texas A&M - 9

4 - Drake - Denver, CO Pod                                            Denver, CO Pod - Butler - 4
13 - Siena                                                                         San Diego - 13
5 - Marquette                                                                      Pittsburgh - 5
12 - Virginia Tech                                                          Western Kentucky - 12

2 - Kansas - Omaha, NE Pod                                             Raleigh, NC Pod - Duke - 2
15 - American                                                                    Austin Peay - 15
7 - USC                                                                            Kent State - 7
10 - South Alabama                                                                  Kentucky - 10

3 - Louisville - Washington DC Pod                                 Anaheim, CA Pod - Stanford - 3
14 - Cornell                                                                     Boise State - 14
6 - Michigan State                                                                     Purdue - 6
11 - Illinois State                                                                Villanova - 11
Midwest Region - Detroit, MI                                           South Region - Houston, TX

Edited March 16, 2008 by bukie

[bukie]

Quick list of teams I think deserve consideration:

 

Top 50 Sagarin ratings:

North Carolina

Memphis

UCLA

Duke

Kansas

Tennessee

Wisconsin

Texas

Georgetown

Xavier-Ohio

Stanford

Indiana

Marquette

Louisville

Washington State

Connecticut

Notre Dame

Michigan State

Gonzaga

Drake

Clemson

Pittsburgh

Southern California

West Virginia

Butler

Purdue

Arizona

Saint Mary's-Cal.

Texas A&M

Davidson

BYU

Vanderbilt

Kansas State

Baylor

Oklahoma

Miami-Florida

Mississippi State

Oregon

Arizona State

Ohio State

Arkansas

New Mexico

Florida

Illinois State

UNLV

South Alabama

Creighton

Va. Commonwealth

Syracuse

Mississippi

 

Top 50 RPI:

Tennessee

Memphis

North Carolina

Duke

Texas

Xavier

Georgetown

Kansas

UCLA

Vanderbilt

Wisconsin

Louisville

Connecticut

Drake

Michigan St.

Indiana

Stanford

Marquette

Butler

Notre Dame

Washington St.

Arizona

Pittsburgh

Clemson

Brigham Young

Miami FL

Nevada Las Vegas

South Alabama

Purdue

Oklahoma

Gonzaga

St. Mary's

Baylor

Illinois St.

Kent St.

Dayton

Mississippi St.

Massachusetts

Arkansas

Southern California

West Virginia

Virginia Commonwealth

Kansas St.

Davidson

Mississippi

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Southern Illinois

Western Kentucky

Creighton

 

There are probably some that made neither of these lists that also deserve consideration.

[ISUCubsFan]

In representing Iowa State. I'll make a huge post tomorrow on teams that deserve a look for an at large bid.

[Guest]

I would love to take part but I'll be in Mesa on March 15 and 16 and won't be near a comp. :(

[Vanilla Ice]

I would love to take part but I'll be in Jamaica that week and won't be near a comp. :(

[Flames24Rulz]

I'll rep SIU.

[bukie]

I would love to take part but I'll be in Mesa on March 15 and 16 and won't be near a comp. :(

I would love to take part but I'll be in Jamaica that week and won't be near a comp. :(

 

That's too bad, would be nice to get fair representation from people that watch more Pac-10 and ACC basketball, respectively, than I know at least I do. Since I haven't really seen much basketball outside the Big 10 this year (and really not too much more inside the Big 10 this year), which teams from the Pac-10 and ACC, respectively, do you guys think should at least get a mention for an at-large bid?

[Exile on Waveland]

I would love to take part but I'll be in Mesa on March 15 and 16 and won't be near a comp. :(

I would love to take part but I'll be in Jamaica that week and won't be near a comp. :(

 

That's too bad, would be nice to get fair representation from people that watch more Pac-10 and ACC basketball, respectively, than I know at least I do. Since I haven't really seen much basketball outside the Big 10 this year (and really not too much more inside the Big 10 this year), which teams from the Pac-10 and ACC, respectively, do you guys think should at least get a mention for an at-large bid?

 

I'm not sure I should commit, because I may not be around. However, if I am around, plan on me chiming in.

 

Pac 10

In: UCLA (top-2 seed), Stanford (top-4 seed), Washington State

Likely: Arizona, USC

Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon

 

ACC

In: North Carolina (top-2 seed), Duke (top-2 seed)

Likely: Clemson, Miami (FL)

Bubble: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

 

The bubble is very weak this year, and I could see all/most those teams making the tournament. Oregon and Wake Forest are the most precarious of the teams listed, and probably won't be included unless they nearly win out. The others likely will.

Edited March 3, 2008 by Exile on Waveland

[Vanilla Ice]

I'd push Miami into likely in and if Wake Forest wins every single game left with the exception of the conference finals they should get at least some discussion

[Exile on Waveland]

I'd push Miami into likely in and if Wake Forest wins every single game left with the exception of the conference finals they should get at least some discussion

 

Wake Forest should've been included in the bubble section, I'll change that. You may be right about Miami as well, looking at their schedule they have Boston College and at Florida State left. If they win both, they'll be in I'm sure. I'll change them for now too.

[bukie]

I think what kills me most about this year is that if Illinois is an average free throw shooting team, they are on the bubble right now. Their RPI is bad, mostly from the losses, but their schedule has been unexpectedly brutal, even in conference, and they have lost a LOT of close games. Statistically, they're the 6th best team in the conference, they are just atrocious in close games.

[Exile on Waveland]

I think what kills me most about this year is that if Illinois is an average free throw shooting team, they are on the bubble right now. Their RPI is bad, mostly from the losses, but their schedule has been unexpectedly brutal, even in conference, and they have lost a LOT of close games. Statistically, they're the 6th best team in the conference, they are just atrocious in close games.

 

No. 38 in Pomeroy.

[bukie]

I think what kills me most about this year is that if Illinois is an average free throw shooting team, they are on the bubble right now. Their RPI is bad, mostly from the losses, but their schedule has been unexpectedly brutal, even in conference, and they have lost a LOT of close games. Statistically, they're the 6th best team in the conference, they are just atrocious in close games.

 

No. 38 in Pomeroy.

 

On the year, when leading at the half, Illinois is 13-13.

[Exile on Waveland]

I think what kills me most about this year is that if Illinois is an average free throw shooting team, they are on the bubble right now. Their RPI is bad, mostly from the losses, but their schedule has been unexpectedly brutal, even in conference, and they have lost a LOT of close games. Statistically, they're the 6th best team in the conference, they are just atrocious in close games.

 

No. 38 in Pomeroy.

 

On the year, when leading at the half, Illinois is 13-13.

 

That's hardly believable. Complete Murphy's Law year for the Illini.

[Guest]

I would love to take part but I'll be in Mesa on March 15 and 16 and won't be near a comp. :(

I would love to take part but I'll be in Jamaica that week and won't be near a comp. :(

 

That's too bad, would be nice to get fair representation from people that watch more Pac-10 and ACC basketball, respectively, than I know at least I do. Since I haven't really seen much basketball outside the Big 10 this year (and really not too much more inside the Big 10 this year), which teams from the Pac-10 and ACC, respectively, do you guys think should at least get a mention for an at-large bid?

 

I'm not sure I should commit, because I may not be around. However, if I am around, plan on me chiming in.

 

Pac 10

In: UCLA (top-2 seed), Stanford (top-4 seed), Washington State

Likely: Arizona, USC

Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon

 

I think ASU really helped themselves out beating USC on Saturday...they're very close to being in the "likely" category and playing the Oregon schools should help (well, playing Oregon State always helps). I know everyone says Oregon is still on the bubble but I really don't know about that. Sure, they have a nice SOS but they have some bad losses (Oakland and Nebraska). I think they need to sweep the Arizona schools and win one in the tourney at least.

[Andy]

I should be able to do this. I'll rep Notre Dame, obviously, and I'd consider Villanova for an at-large - they've played a difficult schedule and with a strong finish and Big East tournament run they could have a faint shot.

[b_wiggy_66]

I can't do this but I want to see my team Illinois St. get some serious at large consideration here. 13-5 conference schedule and 22-8 overall, key wins against SIU and Cincinnati. Only lost by 13 to Indiana but did lose some bad games to Kent St, Northern Iowa, and two losses to Drake. Put em in there. 22 wins is hard to keep them out.

[illiniguy]

I think what kills me most about this year is that if Illinois is an average free throw shooting team, they are on the bubble right now. Their RPI is bad, mostly from the losses, but their schedule has been unexpectedly brutal, even in conference, and they have lost a LOT of close games. Statistically, they're the 6th best team in the conference, they are just atrocious in close games.

 

No. 38 in Pomeroy.

 

On the year, when leading at the half, Illinois is 13-13.

 

That's hardly believable. Complete Murphy's Law year for the Illini.

Which shode bode well for next year when we lose our two worst free throw shooters.

[ISUCubsFan]

The promised huge post going over teams I think have a chance at an at large.

 

 

ACC

 

North Carolina: Moved up back on the 1 line because their winning and no one else is. They'll be a 1 or 2 depending on how they handle Duke.

Duke: Comeback vs NC State keeps them in striking distance of a 1 seed. They likely need to get past UNC again to get there.

Clemson: In barring a collapse. Could be seeded anywhere depending on how they handle their remaining games.

Miami: In as of now due to a win over Duke and good computer numbers. Easy part of their schedule coming up, so they should be able to hold on.

Virginia Tech: Need to keep winning because they're right on the edge now. Beating both WF and Clemson would be huge.

Maryland: Slightly better shape than VT, probably can get in with two more wins. The Clemson game would've been nice though.

 

Big 10

 

Wisconsin: Quietly building a good profile. Will probably finish 16-2, and only losses are Purdue(X2), Duke, and Marquette. Probably a 3/4 seed.

Indiana: Loss to Michigan State puts them second in the conference pecking order. Probably a 4/5 now with time to make a move up or down.

Purdue: Unlike the previous two teams they have some bad early season losses, so they probably end up with a 5/6 seed.

Michigan State: Win over Indiana keeps their seeding high. Probably around a 5/6 seed depending on how they finish off the season.

Ohio State: Out for now because they haven't beaten a tournament caliber team, and they're slumping at the wrong time.

 

Big 12

 

Texas: Loss to Tech hurts their chances of a 1 seed. Still could get there though, since they have better quality wins than almost everyone.

Kansas: Win over K-State gives them a chance at a #1, but they need a strong run in the tournament and possibly some help to avoid a 2 seed.

Kansas St: 4 losses in a row brings them back towards the bubble, but wins over Colorado and ISU should be enough this year.

Texas A&M: Ugly loss to Oklahoma puts them back on the bubble. Needs to beat either Baylor or Kansas to give themselves breathing room.

Baylor: Comeback over Missouri keeps them out of trouble for now. Beating Tech or A&M is a good idea though.

Oklahoma: Win over A&M puts them in decent shape. Easier schedule to close out the season could lead to an 8/9 seed.

Texas Tech: Big win over Texas keeps them alive for now. Need to win @ Kansas though, which doesn't happen much.

Oklahoma State: RPI is probably too low to bring them into the discussion. Need to beat OU and Texas and a deep tourney run for a real chance.

 

Big East

 

Georgetown: They've been really lucky at the end of games this year, but several good wins probably gives them a 3 seed.

Louisville: More people should be talking about them, they can win the conference with a W vs Georgetown. 3/4 seed depending mostly on that game.

Connecticut: Another solid Big East team. Easy closing schedule could give them a 3/4 seed.

Notre Dame: Also a good profile. Road record isn't great, but they're solid 4 seed as of now.

Marquette: Can't seem to beat the top teams in the conference. They beat most of the other teams though, and probably end up as a 5 or 6 seed.

Pittsburgh: Win over Cuse should all but lock them into the field. Losing to WVU and DePaul might put them back on the bubble though.

West Virginia: They've had the opposite luck of Georgetown, and probably need 2 more W's to stay in. Beating Pitt would be huge.

Syracuse: Massive collapse against Pitt puts them clearly out right now. @ Seton Hall and vs Marquette isn't easy, and they might need both.

Villanova: They can get back in it w/ a W over Louisville, and the rest of their schedule is easy. Still a lot of work to do though.

 

Pac 10

 

UCLA: Texas losing opens the door for a 1 seed, especially since UNC and Duke play each other at least once. Pac 10 tourney will be tough though.

Stanford: Could get serious consideration for a 2 if they can beat UCLA Thursday. Sitting on a 3 seed right now.

Washington State: Being swept by UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona doesn't look good after a 14-0 start. Backing into a 5/6/7 at this rate.

USC: Also unimpressive in conference play. They need to grab a few wins to avoid the 8/9 game, but I can't see them missing the field entirely.

Arizona: Good SOS and RPI, bad record, and the last 10 (or 12) looks ugly. Might need to win vs Oregon schools to feel comfortable.

Arizona State: Win over USC keeps them alive. They play a near-elimination game vs Oregon and then @OSU. Wins in the tourney might be needed too.

Oregon: Winning out to get to 9-9 is a must. Might need multiple tourney wins as well. They have no good wins since early January.

 

SEC

 

Tennessee: Still looks good for a 1 seed, mostly a matter of where unless they get a bad loss. #1 RPI and #2 SOS help with the committee.

Mississippi State: Unimpressive start to the season, but they've been great in the SEC. Win @ Vandy could push them as high as a 6 seed.

Vanderbilt: Rebounded strong from a 2-4 conference start, and the win over Tenn helped their seeding a bunch. 4/5 as of now.

Arkansas: Win over Vandy puts them in for now. Following it up with W's over Mississippi and Auburn would likely lock them in.

Mississippi: 5-9 in the SEC isn't going to get it done. Need to win out and make a deep run for an at large at this point.

Florida: Probably need at least 2 more wins, maybe 3. Home wins over UK and Vandy are the only quality wins on their resume.

Kentucky: Injuries and a terrible start are going to kill them. Need to win out and make a deep run for an at large.

 

Atlantic 14

 

Xavier: Can maybe get the last 2 if they win out, but a 3 is more likely. Falling conference perception doesn't help their case.

Massachusetts: Good computer profile keeps them close, but they lack quality wins. Winning out and 1 more the tourney should lock them in.

Saint Joseph's: Losing to Temple kills them. Probably need to beat Xavier and/or make the title game to get in.

Rhode Island: 5 game losing streaks in February are very bad. Need to get to the semis or finals to have an at large shot.

Dayton: In consideration because of their RPI, not anything they've done in 2008. Another team that needs to go deep in their tourney.

 

Missouri Valley

 

Drake: Recent slide hurts their seeding, but the W @ Butler keeps them high. Tournament will decide if they're a 4, 5, or 6.

Illinois State: Won what might be an elimination game @ Southern Illinois. They lack big wins though, and might still need to make the finals.

Southern Illinois: Almost have to win the tourney now. Bad road record and 13 losses already really kill their at large chances.

 

CUSA

 

Memphis: Almost a lock for a 1 seed. Could be #1 overall if they win their tournament, which is likely.

UAB: A run to the finals could do it if they can't beat Memphis, but a win over them would put them on the good side of the bubble.

 

Mountain West

 

BYU: Win over Louisville looks good now. Can go as high as a 6, but a 7/8 is likely if they slip up in their tournament.

UNLV: Lack a high quality win, but they do have a lot of W's. Getting one of New Mexico and Utah might be enough. A 8/9 seed at the moment.

New Mexico: Have to beat UNLV, Colorado State, and make a run in the tourney. Another team in search of quality wins.

 

WCC

 

Gonzaga: Win over St. Mary's gives them the conference title and a boost in seeding. They'll end up in the 5/6/7 range.

St. Mary's: The Zags have a slight edge on them, but they're in the dance, no problem. In the 6/7/8 range.

 

Sun Belt

 

South Alabama: Probably in even with an early exit in the tourney, which means bubble teams everywhere should be rooting for them. 8/9 seed likely.

Western Kentucky: Could get an at large with a run to the finals, but no quality wins means they probably have to get the auto bid to make it.

 

Other At Large Teams

 

Butler: Probably sitting at a 5 or 6 seed now. Didn't lose many, but they didn't play many top teams either.

Kent State: Followed up a big W @ St. Mary's with an L to Bowling Green. Still in with this year's bubble, but another bad loss could change that.

VCU: Winning a lot, but not against great teams. Probably need to make the championship and lose to George Mason to have a chance.

Davidson: Needed a big win to have a realistic chance. Losses to Western Michigan and Charlotte also hurt. Win the tourney to be safe.

 

 

That's 63 teams if I counted right and didn't forget anyone. If no one from off the list gets an auto bid there's 50 spots available.

[Vanilla Ice]

After looking more closely at Wake's profile, I am rescinding my earlier statement that they should be included in the discussion if they win till the conference finals. 6-8 in conference is not going to get it done with the OOC schedule they played. After seeing the Duke game, if they could have put it together a little bit earlier they would have been dangerous IMO.