Can anyone explain this drafting philosophy to me?

[badnews]

Drafted "solid, polished, but unexceptional, unexciting" college guys. Maybe I'm not thinking of all the cases where they work out, but they seem to be pretty uninspiring busts, or, even when they succeed, the kind of guy you can pick up cheap on the free agent market. I'm thinking of guys like Cliff Pennington, that was his tag in the draft. It seems like the 21st overall pick is way too high to settle for a guy like that. I guess most of the guys I'm talking about seem to end up around the last third of the 1st round. I guess it's the way the scouting reports are worded, some of them sound totally bland (like Pennington) and some of them sound pretty exciting (like Craig Italiano, the A's 2nd round pick in that draft). If I had just read the scouting reports I wouldn't have thought Pennington was the higher ranked guy.

 

Obviously you can point to the fact the future of Italiano's career now looks pretty bad. But isn't the point of the draft to shoot for the stars and not to just try to draft the utility players and bullpen guys of the future so early in the draft?

 

I'm also talking about guys like Kyle McCulloch (2006) and Nick Schmidt (2007). Does anyone ever come back later and say "That was a fabulous pick that landed them a Top 20 prospect."

[UK1679666180]

Safe, signable (usually at or below slot), and more likely to reach the majors than someone who might have a higher ceiling but w/flaws or could be diff. to sign.

 

With that said, that would not be my cup of tea, it has shown to be one of the reasons why scouting directors can get fired.

[TruffleShuffle]

Maybe I'm not thinking of all the cases where they work out, but they seem to be pretty uninspiring busts]

 

Khalil Greene, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David DeJesus, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Hunter Pence, Brian Roberts, jon lieber, aaron heilman, dan johnson, ian kinsler, j.j. putz, joe blanton. to name a few.

 

John Olerud and Mark Grace are good examples from the past as well.

 

and really, how could anyone forget DAVID ECKSTEIN?

[badnews]

Khalil Greene, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David DeJesus, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Hunter Pence, Brian Roberts, jon lieber, aaron heilman, dan johnson, ian kinsler, j.j. putz, joe blanton. to name a few.

 

John Olerud and Mark Grace are good examples from the past as well.

 

and really, how could anyone forget DAVID ECKSTEIN?

 

I don't think you read my post the way I intended it to be read, because there are very few guys in that list that fit the description of what I'm talking about. All the guys outside of the very earliest rounds you can scratch, and in some cases you're listing guys who weren't regarded that way but we just lower round success stories. And Khalil Greene? He won the Golden Spikes Award the year he was drafted, he doesn't fit at all to the kind of Russ Adams/Cliff Pennington utility scrapper overdraft types I'm talking about.

[Rob]

Khalil Greene, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David DeJesus, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Hunter Pence, Brian Roberts, jon lieber, aaron heilman, dan johnson, ian kinsler, j.j. putz, joe blanton. to name a few.

 

John Olerud and Mark Grace are good examples from the past as well.

 

and really, how could anyone forget DAVID ECKSTEIN?

 

I don't think you read my post the way I intended it to be read, because there are very few guys in that list that fit the description of what I'm talking about. All the guys outside of the very earliest rounds you can scratch, and in some cases you're listing guys who weren't regarded that way but we just lower round success stories. And Khalil Greene? He won the Golden Spikes Award the year he was drafted, he doesn't fit at all to the kind of Russ Adams/Cliff Pennington utility scrapper overdraft types I'm talking about.

 

Oh, like our own Darwin Barney?

[TruffleShuffle]

Khalil Greene, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David DeJesus, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Hunter Pence, Brian Roberts, jon lieber, aaron heilman, dan johnson, ian kinsler, j.j. putz, joe blanton. to name a few.

 

John Olerud and Mark Grace are good examples from the past as well.

 

and really, how could anyone forget DAVID ECKSTEIN?

 

I don't think you read my post the way I intended it to be read, because there are very few guys in that list that fit the description of what I'm talking about. All the guys outside of the very earliest rounds you can scratch, and in some cases you're listing guys who weren't regarded that way but we just lower round success stories. And Khalil Greene? He won the Golden Spikes Award the year he was drafted, he doesn't fit at all to the kind of Russ Adams/Cliff Pennington utility scrapper overdraft types I'm talking about.

 

why not? russ adams was drafted 14th overall. khalil greene was drafted 16th. khalil greene was regarded by a low-ceiling guy with a lot of polish. just because he turned out better than russ adams doesn't mean it's not a valid comparison. adams' junior year was as good as greene's junior year; greene just had a huge senior year that jumped him up to the middle of the first round.

[craig]

Maybe I'm not thinking of all the cases where they work out, but they seem to be pretty uninspiring busts]

 

Khalil Greene, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David DeJesus, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Hunter Pence, Brian Roberts, jon lieber, aaron heilman, dan johnson, ian kinsler, j.j. putz, joe blanton. to name a few. ...

 

badnews isn't talking about college guys who get picked late and work out, he's talking college guys who get picked in the first round without huge buzz.

 

Matt Murton and Brian Roberts are two of current relevance and recent history. Joe Blanton was one like that. (Safe and boring, low upside; not like the more exciting higher upside Brownlie, Hagerty, Clanton, and Purdue guy that we took.) Mike Mussina was scouted that way; good control, but not fast enough or big enough or with any dynamic pick to merit top ten. Roger Clemens also, he was a mid-first-round guy. Barry Zito scouted as a good curveball lefty but didn't throw very hard; didn't seem very exciting at the time, more likely to be another token lefty curveballer at the back of your rotation than an ace, and more likely to end up as a LOOGY than a rotation guy at all. Ryan Braun as I recall didn't scout all that jazzy either, a good hitter but not necessarily exceptional power or anything else. Certainly the Khalil Greene reports were somewhat muted; when we took him as a junior, he was viewed as a non-SS, a 3B without the power to play 3rd. Oops! And even when taken 1st round, he profiled as a safe conservative selection, and there were still Q's about his SS ability! (The thing that is now his greatest strength, apart from perhaps the HR power.) The CF for Boston, Ellsbury, just a speed and defense guy, no power.

 

The Cubs Josh Donaldson certainly seemed a somewhat limited excitement pick. The reports didn't suggest he was a huge slugging prospect or a Pudge Rodriguez defensive prospect. But couple of weeks of good hitting in the minors and suddenly many of us are quite abuzz with his potential ceiling (relative to the world of catchers).

 

One other factor is that different observers have differing evals of guys. And on writeup can sound very different from another. One writeup on Russell, maybe BA's, talked him down as a soft-tosser mid-80's. Another one talked about touching 91-92 with projection for increased velocity. So sometimes one writeup gives me a totally bored blah feeling, but some other source can make exactly the same prospect seem reasonably promising.

[NCCubFan]

Joe Blanton was one like that. (Safe and boring, low upside; not like the more exciting higher upside Brownlie, Hagerty, Clanton, and Purdue guy that we took.)

The player from Purdue you're thinking of is Chadd Blasko.

[Bull]

Joe Blanton was one like that. (Safe and boring, low upside; not like the more exciting higher upside Brownlie, Hagerty, Clanton, and Purdue guy that we took.)

The player from Purdue you're thinking of is Chadd Blasko.

 

Whatever happened to him? Back when I was a ...uh... more active Cubs fan I did an interview with him for the old Cubstalk.com. I remember the broken foot...then what?

 

edit....ouch...http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=17299

[NCCubFan]

He had major arm problems (I forget whether it was shoulder or elbow) that derailed his once-promising career. I don't recall a broken foot; you may be thinking of Dopirak there.

[jersey cubs fan]

But isn't the point of the draft to shoot for the stars and not to just try to draft the utility players and bullpen guys of the future so early in the draft?

 

No, I don't think that's the point of the draft. The point of the draft is to stock your system with usable assets.

 

Safe and boring can also be useful. You saw GMs go absolutely insane for a bunch of boring innings eaters in recent years. Shooting for the stars can be fun, but it can also leave your system devoid of anything useful. I think it makes sense to go for some guys who are good bets to contribute something, but probably not able to do much else. If you can sign them for little, it can be a nice little investment. And with teams often looking for major league ready (but not necessarily high ceiling) young help in trades, these guys can be quickly turned into something even bigger and better.

[TruffleShuffle]

Russ Adams was picked 1 spot after Khalil Greene and was paid almost $300,000 more. I think this is some big-time 20/20 hindsight going on in this thread.

[illiniguy]

Russ Adams was picked 1 spot after Khalil Greene and was paid almost $300,000 more. I think this is some big-time 20/20 hindsight going on in this thread.

Adams at one point was a decent prospect who didn't work out as planned. Kinda like Corey Patterson. Just because he was more exciting didn't make him anymore value added to the cubs.

[biittner77]

What round did the Cubs take Theriot?

 

No, I don't think that's the point of the draft. The point of the draft is to stock your system with usable assets.

 

Safe and boring can also be useful. You saw GMs go absolutely insane for a bunch of boring innings eaters in recent years. Shooting for the stars can be fun, but it can also leave your system devoid of anything useful. I think it makes sense to go for some guys who are good bets to contribute something, but probably not able to do much else.

 

It sure beats having to pay bench guys $2-4 million for what a homegrown guy can provide for league minimum.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What round did the Cubs take Theriot?

3rd round, 2001