Cubs Projection Thread

[TerraceReserved]

Hey guys. I'll go ahead and say it right away. I'm a Brewers fan, and I post over at brewerfan.net. I was hoping I could get you guys to participate in a projection project I'm doing. My idea was to see if fans of a team could predict player's future performance as well as, or better than a complicated system like PECOTA, Zips, Marcels, and so on.

 

It's pretty simple. You post how you feel your Cubs players will do in the upcoming 08 season. Anything is in play to form your projection, other projection systems, any past statistics, and most importantly, your own subjective opinions on how you think they'll perform. You think Soto was lucky becuase of his high BABIP? Maybe you feel Fukodome will be the next Ichiro, or just another Kaz? You think Pie will breakout? Project it.

 

The stats to predict are these.

Hitting: AVG/OBP/SLG

Pitching: WHIP/ERA

 

The players to project as of now would be:

Lee

DeRosa

Theriot

Ramirez

Soriano

Pie

Fukodome

Soto

 

Zambrano

Lilly

Hill

Marquis

Dempster

Lieber

 

Marmol

Howry

Wood

 

At bf.net we projected the same number of players, with 6 starters and 3 relievers. If you guys feel any of those players, notably the starters (Lieber?) and relievers (are there other relievers that are more important than Howry and Wood) should not be projected and others should, feel free to tell me.

 

I'll be putting these numbers into a Google Doc for anyone to see, and then I'll average them and that will be the official nsbb.com projection. At the end of the year, (yes I know, a looong way off) I'll run a correlation study between our projections, the other systems, and actual performance to see how the fans did in their forecasting. I also might be writing an article comparing the projections of the bf.net and nsbb.com to see how the fans feel the teams stack up.

 

This is just something fun and interesting to do during the offseason, and I'm looking forward to the season and battling out the division with the Cubs. It should be fun. Thanks alot to anyone who participates.

[Springfield_CUBBY]

I project that this thread may rival the BRob monster! But your project sounds like a good one - and I hope you can get it published!

[rocket]

what the hell

 

Lee: .307/.386/.497

DeRosa .279/.364/.417

Theriot .273/.331/.339

Ramirez: .301/.364/.557

Soriano .279/.329/.510

Pie .260/.310/.421

Fukodome .285/.374/.476

Soto .275/.349/.421

 

Zambrano 1.29/3.76

Lilly 1.19/3.98

Hill 1.09/3.43

Marquis 1.49/5.67

Dempster 1.37/4.65

Lieber 1.29/4.53

 

Marmol 0.98/ 2.17

Howry 1.15/3.08

Wood 1.23/2.88

[UMFan83]

I highly doubt a group of fans can project their favorite teams stats accurately. But ok, I'll give it a shot.

 

Lee - .305/.390/.508

DeRosa - .275/.347/.420

Theriot - .242/.297/.330 (gets benched midseason)

Ramirez - .289/.364/.545

Soriano - .284/.326/.513

Pie - .271/.315/.440

Fukodome - .290/.385/.450

Soto - .266/.345/.449

 

Zambrano - 1.31/3.45

Lilly - 1.24/4.19

Hill - 1.16/3.31

Marquis - 1.46/5.43

Dempster - 1.51/4.85

Lieber - 1.30/4.51

 

Marmol - 1.06/3.45

Howry - 1.19/3.61

Wood - 1.41/4.43

 

But honestly, just use whatever numbers Meph gives you.

Edited February 6, 2008 by UMFan83

[sneakypower]

Soto .275/.350/.455

Lee: .315/.400/.525

DeRosa .280/.345/.410

Theriot .275/.340/.380

Ramirez: .305/.360/.570

Fukodome .290/.375/.475

Pie .270/.325/.430

Soriano .290/.335/.540

 

Zambrano 3.50/1.30

Lilly 4.00/1.25

Marquis 4.75/1.40

Hill 3.80/1.20

Lieber 4.50/1.35

 

Wuertz 3.50/1.30

Marmol 2.30/1.20

Howry 3.35/1.20

Wood 3.50/1.25

 

i guess

[Mephistopheles]

.269/.324/.495 alfonso soriano

.254/.310/.325 ryan theriot

.275/.375/.475 derrek lee

.275/.345/.495 aramis ramirez

.267/.348/.436 kosuke fukudome

.254/.333/.427 mark derosa

.245/.305/.411 geovany soto

.323/.365/.534 felix pie

.321/.345/.465 ronny cedeno

 

4.73 zambrano

4.54 lilly

5.43 marquis

5.69 lieber

5.83 gallagher

4.65 marshall

3.12 hill

 

1.59 wood

4.23 marmol

4.31 demp

3.21 howry

2.93 warts

[UMFan83]

.269/.324/.495 alfonso soriano

.254/.310/.325 ryan theriot

.275/.375/.475 derrek lee

.275/.345/.495 aramis ramirez

.267/.348/.436 kosuke fukudome

.254/.333/.427 mark derosa

.245/.305/.411 geovany soto

.323/.365/.534 felix pie

.321/.345/.465 ronny cedeno

 

4.73 zambrano

4.54 lilly

5.43 marquis

5.69 lieber

5.83 gallagher

4.65 marshall

3.12 hill

 

1.59 wood

4.23 marmol

4.31 demp

3.21 howry

2.93 warts

 

Either you're trying to skew the results or you are even a better pessimist than I am!

[SABR Gamer]

Funny Meph, now can we see what you really think?

[rocket]

why the hell does meph wanna trade pie if he's gonna put up those numbers

[JohnF]

Lee: .311/.392/.513

DeRosa: .286/.355/.422

Theriot: .279/.339/.345

Ramirez: .319/.371/.553

Soriano: .276/.331/.566

Pie: .257/.308/.416

Fukodome: .277/.371/.447

Soto: .284/.351/.463

 

Zambrano: 1.26/3.39

Lilly: 1.21/4.03

Hill: 1.15/3.68

Marquis: 1.42/4.71

Dempster: 1.51/5.17

Lieber 1.39/4.58

 

Marmol: 1.07/2.11

Howry: 1.15/3.29

Wood: 1.22/2.61

[Mephistopheles]

carlos zambrano's era isn't going to be under 4 kids

[Post Count Padder]

Soto- .267/.335/.450

Lee- .291/.375/.511

Brian Rob, I mean, Mark DeRosa- .274/.356/.415

Riot- .266/.328/.370

Ramirez- .301/.368/.553

Fukudome- .270/.363/.475

Pie- .255/.317/.410

Soriano- .286/.339/.522

 

Zambrano- 3.66/1.39

Lilly- 4.11/1.28

Hill- 4.03/1.31

Lieber- 4.68/1.27

Marquis- 5.12/1.55

Dempster- 5.01/1.50

 

Wood- 3.77/1.34

Howry- 3.44/1.21

Marmol- 4.00/1.33

[DenverCubs]

I'll be really positive. (just to offset the pessimists)

 

Lee: .327/.415/.550

DeRosa .280/.370/.420

Theriot .270/.330/.329

Ramirez: .300/.360/.560

Soriano .295/.340/.550

Pie .290/.335/.475

Fukodome .290/.390/.450

Soto .280/.360/.450

 

Zambrano 1.25/3.60

Lilly 1.38/4.00

Hill 1.20/3.40

Marquis 1.60/5.90

Dempster 1.55/5.50

Lieber 1.35/4.60

 

Marmol 1.05/ 2.35

Howry 1.15/3.30

Wood 1.28/3.85

[Mephistopheles]

oh i didnt do whip

 

0.96 wood

1.32 marmol

1.36 zambrano

1.11 hill

1.34 lilly

1.54 marquis

1.65 lieber

1.23 howry

1.19 warts

1.43 gallagher

1.29 marshall

[UMFan83]

Obviously the trends state that Z shouldn't have an ERA under 4, but I am being hopeful.

[TheGrinch]

I predict these predictions are unpredictably predictable.

 

Lee: .341/.435/.511

DeRosa .271/.364/.430

Theriot .275/.315/.312

Ramirez: .300/.370/.580

Soriano .281/.330/.570

Pie .270/.330/.457

Fukodome .290/.390/.450

Soto .295/.340/.469

 

Zambrano 1.20/3.40

Lilly 1.42/4.33

Hill 1.24/3.60

Marquis 1.60/5.91

Dempster 1.55/5.67

Lieber 1.40/4.55

 

Marmol 1.05/ 1.96 (hits the DL early)

Howry 1.20/3.50

Wood 1.35/3.50

[SABR Gamer]

Lee: .316/.389/.542

DeRosa: .278/.353/.415

Theriot: .269/.329/.341

Ramirez: .314/.372/.583

Soriano: .280/.332/.566

Pie: .277/.321/.447

Fukodome: .286/.376/.479

Soto: .276/.346/.461

Cedeno: .281/.332/.432

 

Zambrano: 1.23/3.41

Lilly: 1.29/3.98

Hill: 1.12/3.79

Marquis: 1.42/4.91

Dempster: 1.51/5.19

Lieber 1.36/4.52

 

Marmol: 1.08/2.98

Howry: 1.15/2.95

Wood: 1.21/3.58

 

 

 

Edit: A few tweaks, and added Cedeno

Edited February 11, 2008 by New York Cubs Fan

[Post Count Padder]

I'll be really positive. (just to offset the pessimists)

 

Marquis 1.60/5.90

Dempster 1.55/5.50

What would those be if you were really negative?

[SABR Gamer]

I predict these predictions are unpredictably predictable.

 

Lee: .341/.435/.511

DeRosa .271/.364/.430

Theriot .275/.315/.312

Ramirez: .300/.370/.580

Soriano .281/.330/.570

Pie .270/.330/.457

Fukodome .290/.390/.450

Soto .295/.340/.469

 

Zambrano 1.20/3.40

Lilly 1.42/4.33

Hill 1.24/3.60

Marquis 1.60/5.91

Dempster 1.55/5.67

Lieber 1.40/4.55

 

Marmol 1.05/ 1.96 (hits the DL early)

Howry 1.20/3.50

Wood 1.35/3.50

 

 

Your hitting is quite optimistic.

[DenverCubs]

I'll be really positive. (just to offset the pessimists)

 

Marquis 1.60/5.90

Dempster 1.55/5.50

What would those be if you were really negative?

Demp is committed to an asylum when he realizes how lame he would have been as a starter and Marquis develops a severe allergy to leather causing his pitching hand to rot off.

We might be better off this way though. :-k

[Mephistopheles]

Fine since you guys don't believe me.....

 

.268/.321/.502 - Alfonso Soriano

.265/.312/.332 - Ryan Theriot

.310/.396/.563 - Derrek Lee

.305/.375/.603 - Aramis Ramirez (40 HR season)

.321/.411/.514 - Kosuke Fukudome (50 2B, 22 HR)

.254/.321/.421 - Mark DeRosa

.243/.312/.434 - Geovany Soto

.275/.331/.459 - Felix Pie

.312/.375/.462 - Matt Murton (bench Soriano !?@$)

.285/.335/.440 - Ronny Cedeno (hello shortstop answer)

 

4.24/1.32 Carlos Zambrano

3.21/1.15 Rich Hill

4.30/1.34 Ted Lilly

4.65/1.34 Sean Marshall

5.12/1.49 Jason Marqueef

 

2.21/1.04 Kerry Wood

2.96/1.21 Michael Warts

3.23/1.19 Carlos Marmol

3.54/1.29 Bob Howry

 

Mixed bag I guess.

[inari]

carlos zambrano's era isn't going to be under 4 kids

 

You've said that a couple years in a row now, along with predicting he'd get injured.

[TheGrinch]

I predict these predictions are unpredictably predictable.

 

Lee: .341/.435/.511

DeRosa .271/.364/.430

Theriot .275/.315/.312

Ramirez: .300/.370/.580

Soriano .281/.330/.570

Pie .270/.330/.457

Fukodome .290/.390/.450

Soto .295/.340/.469

 

Zambrano 1.20/3.40

Lilly 1.42/4.33

Hill 1.24/3.60

Marquis 1.60/5.91

Dempster 1.55/5.67

Lieber 1.40/4.55

 

Marmol 1.05/ 1.96 (hits the DL early)

Howry 1.20/3.50

Wood 1.35/3.50

 

 

Your hitting is quite optimistic.

 

Those aren't career years from any of those players scratch maybe ARam and I HAVE to predict a good year from Soto. I just have to. I do think the hitting will be much better this year, and that the pitching over preformed last year save Zambrano. Optimistic sure...but not overly so. EDIT: maybe I have Pie, ARam and Lee's OBP too high.

[rawaction]

Lee .313/.397/.522

Derosa .279/.346/.409

Fukudome .281/.374/.464

Pie .268/.310/.398

Ramirez .301/.362/.556

Soriano .287/.343/.560

Soto .261/.323/.448

Theriot .268/.344/.351

 

Zambrano 1.23/ 3.65

Lilly 1.28/ 4.04

Hill 1.18/ 3.52

Dempster 1.44/ 4.88 (ERA only that low because he'll be in the pen)

Lieber 1.38/ 4.67

Marquis 1.41/ 5.26

Wood 1.24/ 2.98

Marmol 1.23/ 3.49

Howry 1.16/ 3.21

[cubsfandan8]

Predictions from the new guy:

 

Lee: .317/.410/.508 (27 Bombs 103 Rbis )

DeRosa .281/.362/.426

Theriot .277/.331/.330

Ramirez: .299/.365/.579 ( 42 bombs 121 RBI's )

Soriano .289/.332/.570 (38 Bombs 86 Rbis )

Pie .260/.321/.444 (12 bombs 26 SB's )

Fukodome .280/.370/.440 (16 Bombs 81 Rbis )

Soto .285/.340/.469 (15 Bombs 71 Rbis )

 

Era / whip

 

Zambrano 3.56 / 1.23

Lilly 3.95 / 1.33

Hill 3.26 /1.19 (worst run support in the league )

Marquis 5.70 / 1.60

Dempster 4.99 / 1.58

Lieber 4.35 / 1.37

 

 

Marmol 2.60 / 1.28

Howry 3.32 / 1.21

Wood 2.95 / 1.22

Eyre 4.11 / 1.40

Wuertz 3.63 / 1.23

 

Win / Loss Projection : 90-72