NL Central Offenses R/G

[JGalt73]

Baseball Musings has finished with the offense predictions for the NL Central teams. "I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007."

 

Listed in order by "Given lineup" runs scored:

 

Brewers

* Best: 5.22 runs per game

* Given: 4.97 runs per game

* Worst: 4.52 runs per game

 

Cubs

* Best: 5.25 runs per game

* Given: 4.92 runs per game

* Worst: 4.57 runs per game

 

Astros

* Best: 5.14 runs per game

* Given: 4.84 runs per game

* Worst: 4.49 runs per game

 

Cardinals

* Best: 4.95 runs per game

* Given: 4.76 runs per game

* Worst: 4.37 runs per game

 

Reds

* Best: 4.82 runs per game

* Given: 4.60 runs per game

* Worst: 4.22 runs per game

 

Pirates

* Best: 4.69 runs per game

* Given: 4.48 runs per game

* Worst: 4.19 runs per game

[reds44]

That list makes me lol.

[Abe Frohman]

What exactly does it mean?

[Derwood]

the Pirates best case scenario is barely better than the Cubs worst case :rotfl:

[Guest]

That list makes me lol.

Maybe it's park neutral. :)

[nilodnayr]

That list makes me lol.

 

Meh, they are saying best case scenario the Reds offense is the same as it was last year. Its not that insane of a position to take with Dusty at the helm.

[Post Count Padder]

Sucks to be the Pirates

[rawaction]

Yeah, the Reds have to have a better offense than the Cards right?

[Keener98]

Yeah, the Reds have to have a better offense than the Cards right?

 

If Baker plays the people who should be playing, yes. But odds of that are small, so their offense will probably be close to the Cards.

[JGalt73]

From the accompanying text with the Reds' projection (and Tim is correct about the lack of a park factor in the OBP & SLG used in the model, BTW):

 

I was surprised to see the Reds drop so far from their 2007 level. One big reason is the falloff by Ken Griffey, Jr. Ken's OBA bounced back from a poor .316 in 2006 to a very good .372 in 2007. The Marcels have him falling off again. Adam Dunn falls off a bit as well, but nothing that shouldn't be expected. He's still the best hitter on the team. Young Joey Votto looks like he's going to put up good numbers as well. Otherwise, the Reds did nothing to improve the offense.

[nilodnayr]

From the accompanying text with the Reds' projection (and Tim is correct about the lack of a park factor in the OBP & SLG used in the model, BTW):

 

I was surprised to see the Reds drop so far from their 2007 level. One big reason is the falloff by Ken Griffey, Jr. Ken's OBA bounced back from a poor .316 in 2006 to a very good .372 in 2007. The Marcels have him falling off again. Adam Dunn falls off a bit as well, but nothing that shouldn't be expected. He's still the best hitter on the team. Young Joey Votto looks like he's going to put up good numbers as well. Otherwise, the Reds did nothing to improve the offense.

 

Votto's Marcel OPS is still about 30 points below what Hatteberg did last year.

 

Regarding Park Factor. Since the Reds offense is basically made up of the same players as last year, then park factors really aren't an issue.

[BigbadB]

Yeah, the Reds have to have a better offense than the Cards right?

 

You would think so. Where I believe Brandon Phillips falls a bit from last year's numbers, I think Encarnacion picks up the slack.

[nilodnayr]

Yeah, the Reds have to have a better offense than the Cards right?

 

Its moreso that the cards projection looks off. Last year, they were slightly better than what the worst case scenario is projecting. A lot of that is coming from Marcel predicting 100 OPS improvements at 2b (Kennedy>Kennedy), 3B (Rolen>Glaus), and CF (Edmonds>Ankiel). Its also predicting Encarnacion to play, and even Tango would tell you to ignore the playing time projections of Marcel.

[illiniguy]

Yeah, the Reds have to have a better offense than the Cards right?

 

If Baker plays the people who should be playing, yes. But odds of that are small, so their offense will probably be close to the Cards.

Plus how much sac bunting will Brandon Phillips and Adam Dunn be doing? Not to mention they will be encouraged to hit, not walk there way aboard.

[Ender]

Keep in mind that is assuming no bench etc. Ankiel and Duncan are playing full time in that lineup instead of platoons, Pujols elbow doesn't steal AB's etc.

[Mephistopheles]

and it also assumes that soriano's hamstring isnt an issue and neither is ramirez and his body.