Rank the NL for 2008

[UMFan83]

I think having the D'Backs anywhere in the top 5 is vastly overrating that team.

 

I'd like to hear your arguments. This is what I said in another thread:

 

My argument for the Diamondbacks is that just about their entire lineup consists of highly regarded prospects playing their in their first and second MLB seasons last year. Considering that they managed to have the best record in the NL last year despite their prospects learning on the job, I would expect vast improvement from their lineup. If they produce like last year, you are right. But they obviously got a lot better in SP, essentially replacing Livan Hernandez with Haren and Petit with Randy Johnson.

 

FYI, the Diamondbacks team OPS by month:

 

April: .714

May: .757

June: .700

July: .706

August: .715

September: .811

Playoffs vs. Cubs: .890

[DenverCubs]

I think having the D'Backs anywhere in the top 5 is vastly overrating that team.

 

I'd like to hear your arguments. This is what I said in another thread:

 

My argument for the Diamondbacks is that just about their entire lineup consists of highly regarded prospects playing their in their first and second MLB seasons last year. Considering that they managed to have the best record in the NL last year despite their prospects learning on the job, I would expect vast improvement from their lineup. If they produce like last year, you are right. But they obviously got a lot better in SP, essentially replacing Livan Hernandez with Haren and Petit with Randy Johnson.

 

FYI, the Diamondbacks team OPS by month:

 

April: .714

May: .757

June: .700

July: .706

August: .715

September: .811

Playoffs vs. Cubs: .890

The problem with the D'Backs is offensively, they don't have one sure thing. Their whole team is like 23 years old. They could be very good if they all take big steps, but they could be terrible if none of them do (offensively at least). More than likely, they will be below average with an great starting rotation. Randy Johnson will probably be hurt at some point though. I can see them being in a lot of close games this year, so if they get lucky/manage their bullpen perfectly or whatever made them outperform their pythag last year they can be a contender, but it seems unlikely. At least to me.

[TruffleShuffle]

1. Mets

2. Dodgers

3. Braves

4. Diamondbacks

5. Phillies

6. Brewers

7. Rockies

8. Cubs

9. Padres

10. Marlins

11. Astros

12. Reds (enough talent to be better, but Dusty is the manager)

13. Cards

14. Nationals

15. Pirates

16. Giants

Edited January 31, 2008 by TruffleShuffle

[UMFan83]

I think having the D'Backs anywhere in the top 5 is vastly overrating that team.

 

I'd like to hear your arguments. This is what I said in another thread:

 

My argument for the Diamondbacks is that just about their entire lineup consists of highly regarded prospects playing their in their first and second MLB seasons last year. Considering that they managed to have the best record in the NL last year despite their prospects learning on the job, I would expect vast improvement from their lineup. If they produce like last year, you are right. But they obviously got a lot better in SP, essentially replacing Livan Hernandez with Haren and Petit with Randy Johnson.

 

FYI, the Diamondbacks team OPS by month:

 

April: .714

May: .757

June: .700

July: .706

August: .715

September: .811

Playoffs vs. Cubs: .890

The problem with the D'Backs is offensively, they don't have one sure thing. Their whole team is like 23 years old. They could be very good if they all take big steps, but they could be terrible if none of them do (offensively at least). More than likely, they will be below average with an great starting rotation. Randy Johnson will probably be hurt at some point though. I can see them being in a lot of close games this year, so if they get lucky/manage their bullpen perfectly or whatever made them outperform their pythag last year they can be a contender, but it seems unlikely. At least to me.

 

I agree they are very unproven.

 

I think by the end of this year, you will see Justin Upton emerge as the teams star, with Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Connor Jackson playing minor stars. Combine that with a 1-2 of Webb and Haren and you are going to see the DBacks wreck some havoc in the league.

[Mephistopheles]

there's one small (big) problem in the desert. they can't get anyone to touch the plate after touching third.

[Mephistopheles]

I'm surprised how high most are on the Phillies.

 

Why? They'll have an elite offense. They essentially signed a quality #2 starter and have an elite closer.

[UMFan83]

Here are the average rankings thru the first 11 results:

 

1. Mets - 1.0 (highest - 1, lowest - 1)

2. Dodgers - 3.2 (2, 7)

3. Phillies - 4.2 (2, 7)

4. Cubs - 4.9 (2, 8)

4. Diamondbacks - 4.9 (2, 8)

6. Rockies - 5.5 (2, 8)

7. Brewers - 6.0 (2,9)

8. Padres - 6.6 (2,10)

9. Braves - 6.9 (2, 9)

--------------------------------------------------------

10. Reds - 10.1 (8, 12)

11. Astros - 11.9 (10, 15)

12. Cardinals - 12.7 (11, 15)

13. Nationals - 13.2 (11, 15)

14. Marlins - 14.0 (10, 16)

15. Giants - 14.1 (11, 16)

16. Pirates - 14.8 (12, 16)

[pitchcs]

I'm surprised how high most are on the Phillies.

 

Why? They'll have an elite offense. They essentially signed a quality #2 starter and have an elite closer.

 

 

Hamels

Meyers

Moyer

Kendrick

Eaton

 

does not impress me that much.

 

And is this lineup really that amazing?

 

Rollins

Victorino

Utley

Howard

Burrell

Feliz

Jenkins/Taguchi

C (they don't have one that I've even heard of)

 

It's an above average team, but 2nd in the NL? Ehh...

[rawaction]

I'm surprised how high most are on the Phillies.

 

Why? They'll have an elite offense. They essentially signed a quality #2 starter and have an elite closer.

 

 

Hamels

Meyers

Moyer

Kendrick

Eaton

 

does not impress me that much.

 

And is this lineup really that amazing?

 

Rollins

Victorino

Utley

Howard

Burrell

Feliz

Jenkins/Taguchi

C (they don't have one that I've even heard of)

 

It's an above average team, but 2nd in the NL? Ehh...

 

They won 89 last year. They were tied for 2nd best in the NL (if you take out Colorado's win in 163). Myers back in the rotation. Lidge in the pen. They do lose Rowand, but they bring back 4 players that put up at least a .875 OPS last year. They played without Utley for a month. Howard missed some time. Victorino was starting to destroy the ball before he got hurt.

[Ender]

Jenkins/Werth is the OF platoon and it should be pretty productive.

 

Ruiz is the C - .259/.340/.396 in his first full season, projects to be better than that in the future.

 

 

The rotation is ceratinly a question mark, the bullpen is ok but not great. That lineup is going to be better than last year barring injuries and is enough to carry the team.

[David]

 

They won 89 last year. They were tied for 2nd best in the NL (if you take out Colorado's win in 163). Myers back in the rotation. Lidge in the pen. They do lose Rowand, but they bring back 4 players that put up at least a .875 OPS last year. They played without Utley for a month. Howard missed some time. Victorino was starting to destroy the ball before he got hurt.

 

 

Isn't that a pretty big loss for them, considering he put up a near .900 OPS in CF for them last year? The points about their injuries are valid, though.

[Vanilla Ice]

1/2 Mets/Cubs (Mets if they get Santana, Cubs if they don't)

3 Dodgers

4 Phillies

5 Brewers

6 Rockies

7 Padres

8 Diamondbacks

-------------------------

9 Braves

10 Reds

11 Cardinals

12 Marlins

13 Astros

14 Nationals

15 Giants

16 Pirates

[weis21]

Is anyone other than me waiting for the mets to actually sign Santana before anointing them NL champs? Even after(the supposed deal), has anyone considered that the rest of their rotation is much worse than the cubs or even the giants? Granted, their offense makes up for many and most of those shortcomings, but first lets make sure they trade for Santana and sencond, lets not crown them champs quite yet. I know they had a great year last year and that their offense is very good, but beltran is injury prone, delgado and alou are getting old very quick, orlando hernandez is probably 46, pedro has the velocity of an 89 year old arthritic man. Will they battle and probably win the NL east if they get Sanatana...yes. Are they a shoe in to win the NL...I certainly don't think so.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can't believe there are this many people who have the Cubs as the 8th best team in the NL.

[TruffleShuffle]

I can't believe there are this many people who have the Cubs as the 8th best team in the NL.

 

pessimism, my friend. it goes along with being a cub fan.

[mcgoobs]

Is anyone other than me waiting for the mets to actually sign Santana before anointing them NL champs? Even after(the supposed deal), has anyone considered that the rest of their rotation is much worse than the cubs or even the giants? Granted, their offense makes up for many and most of those shortcomings, but first lets make sure they trade for Santana and sencond, lets not crown them champs quite yet. I know they had a great year last year and that their offense is very good, but beltran is injury prone, delgado and alou are getting old very quick, orlando hernandez is probably 46, pedro has the velocity of an 89 year old arthritic man. Will they battle and probably win the NL east if they get Sanatana...yes. Are they a shoe in to win the NL...I certainly don't think so.

 

Agreed. Without Santan their rotation would have been below average. The rest of their rotation is:

 

- Pedro: 36 years old and has pitched a combined 161 innings the past two years

- Oliver Perez: ERA+ of 72, 67, and 120 over the last three years

- John Maine: 109 ERA+ last year but should be developing

- Orlando Hernandez: 41 years old and with ERA+ of 88, 96 and 115 while averaging 118 IP the last three years

 

With pitching like that guaranteeing the NL Crown, or even the NL East Division title, is premature.

[Mephistopheles]

To support my young padawan I should also note that Pedro Martinez did not start a game on normal rest last season. Each start he had at least an extra day. The Mets should consider themselves lucky if he pitches 25 games next season.

[UMFan83]

I can't believe there are this many people who have the Cubs as the 8th best team in the NL.

 

Why is that hard to believe? They were 6th in the based on record last season, and 2 teams were within 2 games of them. Some teams have improved, while some Cubs fans believe that the rotation really overachieved last season and is bound to regress.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can't believe there are this many people who have the Cubs as the 8th best team in the NL.

 

Why is that hard to believe? They were 6th in the based on record last season, and 2 teams were within 2 games of them. Some teams have improved, while some Cubs fans believe that the rotation really overachieved last season and is bound to regress.

 

They were also 2 games from having the 3rd best record, pythag-wise. We can debate progression/regression for every team until the end of time, but the Cubs were relatively easily among the Top 8 teams last year, and they've improved the roster. It's irrationally pessimistic to have them as low as 8th.

[mcgoobs]

I can't believe there are this many people who have the Cubs as the 8th best team in the NL.

 

Why is that hard to believe? They were 6th in the based on record last season, and 2 teams were within 2 games of them. Some teams have improved, while some Cubs fans believe that the rotation really overachieved last season and is bound to regress.

 

They were also 2 games from having the 3rd best record, pythag-wise. We can debate progression/regression for every team until the end of time, but the Cubs were relatively easily among the Top 8 teams last year, and they've improved the roster. It's irrationally pessimistic to have them as low as 8th.

 

With the Cubs, irrational pessimism becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[UMFan83]

I can't believe there are this many people who have the Cubs as the 8th best team in the NL.

 

Why is that hard to believe? They were 6th in the based on record last season, and 2 teams were within 2 games of them. Some teams have improved, while some Cubs fans believe that the rotation really overachieved last season and is bound to regress.

 

They were also 2 games from having the 3rd best record, pythag-wise. We can debate progression/regression for every team until the end of time, but the Cubs were relatively easily among the Top 8 teams last year, and they've improved the roster. It's irrationally pessimistic to have them as low as 8th.

 

And I think its irrationally optimistic to have them as high as 3. I know I'm the boards (mostly) sane pessimist, but I really don't think its irrational to htink the Cubs will be the 8th best team in the NL this year. Your point about teams being bunched together between 3rd and 8th only proves that there are a lot of teams that are in that 87-80 win range. A couple flukey wins here and there and a 3rd best team becomes an 8th place team. If someone looks at a team like the Dodgers, who won 80 games last year and the Brewers who won 83 and sees them both improved more than the Cubs, thats not irrational.

[danonwaveland]

I think we have a lot more room for a better year than last year.

 

Soriano missed a month last year.

For what a month, Ramirez didn't hit any homers? He also missed a couple weeks.

Lee went a half season forgetting how to drive the ball.

Zambrano had his worst year as a pro.

Fukudome will have to be an upgrade over Floyd.

Soto, even if he tanks, will be better than what we had at that spot last year.

Rich Hill should only get better.

 

As for the Brewers.

I doubt Fielder can get much better.

If Braun improves his offense they should just rename the MVP trophy.

Corey Hart and JJ Hardy had great years, I want to see them do that again.

Bill Hall will be better.

Rickie Weeks will be better.

Just how good is Gallardo?

 

I still like our chances to take the division.

 

While the Brewers should be better for the experience the young kids got last year, the Cubs should get off to a faster start than they did last year. Lou knows the team and the team knows Lou. That should help by a few games, methinks.

________________________________________________________________

Sandberg>Mazeroski>Morgan

[Keener98]

First off I have a hard time believing Mike Cameron is worth 4-5 wins only playing in at most 137 games, and thats if he plays in every game after his suspension. Also, are Brewer fans ignoring who their starting catcher is? That is a huge hit defensively when every single is an automatic double.

[Ender]

First off I have a hard time believing Mike Cameron is worth 4-5 wins only playing in at most 137 games, and thats if he plays in every game after his suspension. Also, are Brewer fans ignoring who their starting catcher is? That is a huge hit defensively when every single is an automatic double.

 

It isn't just Cameron though, it is the fact it moves Hall out of CF and Braun out of 3B. Hall cost the team roughly 1-1.5 wins defensively in CF last year, Braun cost roughly 3 wins at 3B. Gross/Dillon were average defensive players which is who was going to play LF. The defensive shifts that come along with the signing are just huge.

 

Kendall had 20 CS in 131 attempts last year for a 15%. Estrada had 11 CS in 73 attempts for a 15%. Kendall had a 30% in 2006, Estrada had a 29%. There really isn't much of a difference.

[Mephistopheles]

10 runs =/= 1 win.