Zip around why don't you?

[Mephistopheles]

2008 Cubs ZiPS are up:

 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Derrek Lee               1b  32  .300  .382  .517 123 460  76 138 32  1 22  78  57  97  7  3 
Aramis Ramirez           3b  30  .292  .354  .531 138 524  78 153 32  3 29 100  46  62  1  1 
Kosuke Fukudome*         rf  31  .293  .382  .460 120 457  66 134 33  2 13  67  64 100  1  1 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .282  .359  .489 ------------------------------------------
Alfonso Soriano          lf  32  .286  .336  .527 141 588  97 168 39  2 33  99  39 133 28  9 
Matt Murton              lf  26  .289  .360  .465 156 471  71 136 27  1 18  63  51  67  3  0 
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .281  .352  .469 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .280  .349  .471 ------------------------------------------
Geovany Soto             c   25  .284  .342  .483 139 458  44 130 29  1 20  73  41 109  0  0
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .277  .346  .457 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .275  .339  .433 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .279  .340  .422 ----------------------------------------- 
Micah Hoffpauir*         1b  28  .265  .321  .459 105 370  36  98 22  1 16  61  30  65  2  1 
Mark DeRosa              2b  33  .276  .349  .405 125 417  56 115 23  2  9  55  43  83  1  2
Daryle Ward*             1b  33  .263  .342  .413  87 179  21  47 12  0  5  30  21  35  0  1 
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .277  .332  .415 ------------------------------------------ 
Mike Fontenot*           2b  28  .268  .333  .412 144 456  65 122 29  5  9  48  44  86  7  4 
Matt Craig#              3b  27  .256  .326  .421 122 399  44 102 26  2 12  52  38 103  3  1 
Felix Pie*               cf  23  .269  .321  .429 148 539  71 145 27  7 15  61  40 122 20  9 
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .263  .324  .412 ------------------------------------------
Josh Kroeger*            rf  25  .257  .307  .439 129 456  49 117 28  2 17  59  31 118  8  4 
Jake Fox                 c   25  .254  .301  .439 124 465  43 118 30  1 18  64  23 113  5  2 
Sam Fuld*                cf  26  .261  .329  .377 114 403  59 105 28  2  5  34  36  62 14  3 
Eric Patterson*          2b  25  .264  .318  .406 151 571  73 151 27  6 14  61  44 103 28 11 
Steve Clevenger*         1b  22  .281  .321  .362  93 334  36  94 18  0  3  29  20  29  1  1 
Ryan Theriot             ss  28  .266  .324  .348 143 492  71 131 25  3  3  42  41  51 25  4 
Ronny Cedeno             ss  25  .271  .312  .398 141 462  52 125 20  3 11  48  26  86  9  7 
Henry Blanco             c   36  .235  .286  .383  51 149  14  35  8  1  4  20  10  26  0  0 
Koyie Hill#              c   29  .237  .292  .351  64 194  17  46 13  0  3  20  15  35  1  1 
Casey McGehee            3b  25  .243  .288  .361 140 502  42 122 30  1  9  53  32  95  1  3 
Brian Dopirak            1b  24  .233  .278  .370 106 386  26  90 23  0 10  42  22 111  1  1 
Tyler Colvin*            cf  22  .236  .267  .380 136 518  50 122 33  3 12  60  18 143 17  9 
Nate Spears*             2b  23  .222  .289  .297 130 414  46  92 18  2  3  29  32  80  7  2 
Chris Walker             cf  27  .247  .289  .329 100 356  35  88 13  2  4  29  19  82 17 13 
Ryan Harvey              rf  23  .210  .239  .365  95 353  28  74 16  0 13  40  12 106  2  1 

 

Player Spotlight - Felix Pie
Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .302  .362  .505 160 582  92 176 35 10 21  92  54 112 29  6  119   8   
Mean              .269  .321  .429 148 539  71 145 27  7 15  61  40 122 20  9   89   5    
Pessimistic (15%) .239  .282  .364 130 473  50 113 21  4 10  52  28 116 11  9   63   1 

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Corey Patterson, Dave Martinez

 

The Corey Patterson similarities are downright hilarious these days.

 

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Bobby Howry               34   3.16   7   6  76   0    74.0   65   26   7   17   67 
Mike Wuertz               29   3.33   4   3  69   0    73.0   60   27   7   32   84 
Carlos Zambrano           27   3.70  14  11  32  32   207.0  177   85  22  100  189 
Kerry Wood                31   3.72   2   1  30   0    29.0   23   12   4   14   33 
Carlos Marmol             25   3.77   5   3  77   0    86.0   71   36  10   50   93 
Scott Eyre*               36   3.81   2   1  67   0    59.0   53   25   6   31   60 
Rich Hill*                28   3.88  10   9  31  29   181.0  160   78  27   60  190 
Neal Cotts*               28   4.08   2   2  59   0    64.0   58   29   7   35   58 
Carmen Pignatiello*       25   4.24   3   3  56   0    70.0   68   33   8   28   57 
Ted Lilly*                32   4.24  12  12  31  31   176.0  165   83  25   67  158 
Ryan Dempster             31   4.25   5   5  70   0    72.0   68   34   7   34   62
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.36 ----------------------------------------------- 
Jose Ascanio              23   4.50   3   4  49   3    88.0   91   44   8   39   55 
Angel Guzman              26   4.64   3   3  17  12    66.0   67   34   8   28   56 
Juan Mateo                24   4.64   6   9  29  23   130.0  134   67  16   45   93 
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.78 -----------------------------------------------
Sean Gallagher            22   4.91   6   9  29  24   143.0  144   78  16   79  104 
Sean Marshall*            25   4.97   6   8  22  21   116.0  124   64  17   49   75 
Jason Marquis             29   5.06   9  14  30  29   176.0  189   99  28   66   96 
Les Walrond*              31   5.11   5   8  25  19   118.0  128   67  17   52   77 
Billy Petrick             24   5.12   2   2  37   0    51.0   54   29   9   19   34 
Wade Miller               31   5.14   2   3  13  13    63.0   67   36   9   32   45 
Steve Trachsel            37   5.20   5  10  23  23   128.0  141   74  19   57   62 
Adam Harben               24   5.61   3   7  21  17    93.0  103   58  10   61   45 
Donald Veal*              23   5.72   6  12  29  28   140.0  141   89  23  110  115 
Kevin Hart                26   5.73   5  11  29  25   154.0  168   98  30   69  107 
Mark Holliman             24   5.89   6  13  25  24   142.0  160   93  28   73   83 
Ryan O'Malley*            28   6.15   4   9  29  19   120.0  146   82  26   40   58 
Tim Lahey                 26   6.19   3   8  51   0    80.0   92   55  14   43   47 
Jeff Samardzija           23   6.27   3   8  21  19    99.0  122   69  20   39   37 
Mike Nannini              28   6.90   1   5  35   5    73.0   86   56  21   36   53 
Mitchell Atkins           22   7.16   4  14  27  25   137.0  166  109  40   73   82 

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Ted Lilly
                   ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Optimistic (15%)   3.57  16  10  34  34  199  172   79  25   67  188   129 
Mean               4.24  12  12  31  31  176  165   83  25   67  158   109
Pessimistic (15%)  5.28   7  12  25  25  138  144   81  25   62  114    87 

Top Near-Age Comps:  Floyd Bannister, Howie Pollet

Player Spotlight - Carlos Zambrano
                   ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Optimistic (15%)   3.04  18   8  34  34  228  179   77  20   97  217   152  
Mean               3.70  14  11  32  32  207  177   85  22  100  189   125
Pessimistic (15%)  4.53   9  11  26  26  163  153   82  21   92  137   102  

Top Near-Age Comps:  Andy Messersmith, Pete Harnisch

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

They too, love some Geonany Soto.

[Mephistopheles]

They too, love some Geonany Soto.

 

Every projection system is going to. PECOTA is usually the most negative to guys with little time in the majors. They ought to be out within a week or two. They came out the fifteenth last year, iirc.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

They too, love some Geonany Soto.

a lot of people will if he can put up a line that looks anything like that

[Mephistopheles]

Hes no JR Towles.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

oh crap I spelled Geovany Soto wrong. Is that a bannable offense?

[CubColtPacer]

The Ward projection seems very low, although I understand why that is. There are some minor issues with many of the rest on the hitting side, but nothing too bad. The Pie and Patterson projections seem a lot better from what they were in 2007, especially their PECOTA projections from 07.

 

I have a hard time seeing the pitching regress that badly, but our pitching was considered to be horrible by the projections last year as well.

 

Obviously it's an average so playing time for almost every starter on the list is down from where it likely will be for the season.

[Mephistopheles]

Pie:

 

2008 .269/.321/.429 - ZiPS

2008 .283/.333/.456 - Bill James

2007 .288/.342/.480 - PECOTA

2007 .257/.304/.401 - ZiPS

 

PECOTA is usually optimistic on him. Expect something like .295/.350/.475, which wont happen of course.

[jersey cubs fan]

If I could lock in that Pie production I would.

[Omar]

According to that, Cubs will go 148-213. >_>

[bukie]

I'm not sure how that is projecting the pitching to regress, as it is predicting 8 bullpen arms better than the league average. Marmol will almost certainly regress, because it's hard to expect him to repeat his year last year.

 

Back end of the rotation is a concern, though.

[DenverCubs]

I like the Fukudome projection once again. Also happy Juan Mateo projects to just about league average. Is he still hurt or something? Damn did the Cubs bring him up too fast.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

I like the Fukudome projection once again.

Really, I'd be a tad dissapointed myself.

[David]

Why do they even bother with garbage like RBIs on these things?

 

Aside from the fact that it's a worthless stat, it's almost impossible to predict them if you don't know how the lineup positioning will shake out.

[abuck1220]

if pie puts up a .350 obp, the cubs may be pretty good.

[DenverCubs]

I like the Fukudome projection once again.

Really, I'd be a tad dissapointed myself.

Seriously. An 840 OPS with good defense in center or right. 33 doubles. I like that a lot.

Here's a question though: How does a guy with a .382 OBS score 66 runs while a guy with a .336 OBP scores 97 runs. The answer is your team is doing it wrong.

I do agree that stats like this shouldn't even be predicted though.

Edited January 9, 2008 by DenverCubs

[YearofDaCubs]

I'd be happy to see those numbers out of Pie considering it would be his first full season.

[haltz]

They too, love some Geonany Soto.

 

Every projection system is going to. PECOTA is usually the most negative to guys with little time in the majors. They ought to be out within a week or two. They came out the fifteenth last year, iirc.

I think Nate Silver said somewhere that PECOTA loved him too. I'll believe a line like that from Soto when I see it.

 

Dan projected Dempster as a starter:

9-11, 4.96, 1.1 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9

 

Why do they even bother with garbage like RBIs on these things?

People use them for their fantasy leagues.

[DenverCubs]

Player Spotlight - A.J. Burnett
                   ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Optimistic (15%)   2.91  17   6  31  31  207  171   67  17   62  200
Mean               3.79  12   8  27  27  178  164   75  20   61  158 
Pessimistic (15%)  4.62   8   9  23  23  144  145   74  20   58  117 

DeRosa and Dempster for that sounds pretty good. Assuming we get Roberts.

[David]

if pie puts up a .350 obp, the cubs may be pretty good.

 

They'll be pretty good even if Pie sucks.

 

They'll be pretty damn good if Pie does that, though.

 

 

There I go with these subjective terms again.

[AlwaysaCub]

if pie puts up a .350 obp, the cubs may be pretty good.

 

They'll be pretty good even if Pie sucks.

 

They'll be pretty damn good if Pie does that, though.

 

 

Will they? With the current incredible 4/5 of Marquis and Dempster?

[shnsajax]

Zips doesn't seem to like Theriot, not that I blame them. I think it is a little under on Aram though, and it really stays conservative on BA it looks like with Lee and Aram. I would be very happy with that from Soto too.

[sneakypower]

I'm still waiting for the .734 OPS Soriano was supposed to put up for the Nationals.

[jersey cubs fan]

Zips doesn't seem to like Theriot, not that I blame them. I think it is a little under on Aram though, and it really stays conservative on BA it looks like with Lee and Aram. I would be very happy with that from Soto too.

 

I'm more curious about their conservative take on Lee's playing time.

[sneakypower]

Zips doesn't seem to like Theriot, not that I blame them. I think it is a little under on Aram though, and it really stays conservative on BA it looks like with Lee and Aram. I would be very happy with that from Soto too.

 

I'm more curious about their conservative take on Lee's playing time.

Because it's based on past data, 2006 provides a bias for Lee's playing time.