MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[Transmogrified Tiger]

roberts would get on base at a .385 clip

 

 

Hahaha. I'm glad that I wasn't logged in so I was able to see this gem.

I don't see what's so crazy about that. His OBP was .377 last year.

 

He's stating with certainty that Roberts will reach an OBP that he has only reached once. That's about 35 points above his career average, and Roberts has been over .350 only twice in his career. It's similar to saying Soriano is a shoo-in for a .360 OBP.

[JimSorgi]

roberts would get on base at a .385 clip

 

 

Hahaha. I'm glad that I wasn't logged in so I was able to see this gem.

I don't see what's so crazy about that. His OBP was .377 last year.

 

You really don't see anything wrong with expecting him to have a .385 obp next season?

 

Really?

It's maybe a little optimistic, but not laughable.

[wrigley23]

out of the 1 hole? No. With better hitters behind him, I would expect it to stay in the upper .300's which puts him in select company in mlb.

[JimSorgi]

roberts would get on base at a .385 clip

 

 

Hahaha. I'm glad that I wasn't logged in so I was able to see this gem.

I don't see what's so crazy about that. His OBP was .377 last year.

 

He's stating with certainty that Roberts will reach an OBP that he has only reached once. That's about 35 points above his career average, and Roberts has been over .350 only twice in his career. It's similar to saying Soriano is a shoo-in for a .360 OBP.

Oh, I guess I read it differently. I don't expect him to put up those numbers either. I just wouldn't be shocked if he did.

[17 Seconds]

roberts would get on base at a .385 clip

 

 

Hahaha. I'm glad that I wasn't logged in so I was able to see this gem.

I don't see what's so crazy about that. His OBP was .377 last year.

 

He's stating with certainty that Roberts will reach an OBP that he has only reached once. That's about 35 points above his career average, and Roberts has been over .350 only twice in his career. It's similar to saying Soriano is a shoo-in for a .360 OBP.

 

Thank you.

 

The part that bothered me most was the fact that he didn't even say ".385 is a real possibility" (which I also would have found silly, by the way). He straight up said that Roberts would have a .385 on base percentage, which is ridiculous.

[17 Seconds]

roberts would get on base at a .385 clip

 

 

Hahaha. I'm glad that I wasn't logged in so I was able to see this gem.

I don't see what's so crazy about that. His OBP was .377 last year.

 

He's stating with certainty that Roberts will reach an OBP that he has only reached once. That's about 35 points above his career average, and Roberts has been over .350 only twice in his career. It's similar to saying Soriano is a shoo-in for a .360 OBP.

Oh, I guess I read it differently. I don't expect him to put up those numbers either. I just wouldn't be shocked if he did.

 

I'd say he's more likely to put up numbers similar to 2006 than his never-going-to-happen-again 2005.

 

If I had to gess, I'd say he's around .360-.365 next season.

[17 Seconds]

out of the 1 hole? No. With better hitters behind him, I would expect it to stay in the upper .300's which puts him in select company in mlb.

 

Stop it with these fallacies. The Orioles scored more runs than the Cubs last season.

 

That's not even the point though. Stop acting like a better lineup suddenly turns good players into super human players. Anyways, why is his OBP going to go up so much because of protection? Wouldn't that mean guys will be throwing more strikes to him? Are you really expecting the dude to hit .320 or something like that? This is similar to people who are convinced that Coco Crisp would return to his 2004/2005 form if he batted second with us just because Lee would be protecting him.

[TruffleShuffle]

roberts would get on base at a .385 clip

 

 

Hahaha. I'm glad that I wasn't logged in so I was able to see this gem.

I don't see what's so crazy about that. His OBP was .377 last year.

 

He's stating with certainty that Roberts will reach an OBP that he has only reached once. That's about 35 points above his career average, and Roberts has been over .350 only twice in his career. It's similar to saying Soriano is a shoo-in for a .360 OBP.

 

it's not like that at all, really. roberts has had a an obp over .385 in 2005, and within a few points of that last season. that's two of the past three years. soriano has never had a season with a .360 obp, and he's only had one season in which he's been within 20 points of that figure. and the one year that he had a .351 obp, his walk total was inflated because he was IBB'ed 16 times and probably pitched around several other PAs. that won't be the case for roberts.

[TruffleShuffle]

out of the 1 hole? No. With better hitters behind him, I would expect it to stay in the upper .300's which puts him in select company in mlb.

 

Stop it with these fallacies. The Orioles scored more runs than the Cubs last season.

 

i would sure hope so. having a dh makes scoring runs easier than having guys like ted lilly and rich hill at the plate.

[17 Seconds]

This discussion is making my brain hurt.

 

Hey guys, Aaron Rowand WILL hit 30 home runs next season.

 

J.D. Drew WILL hit 30 home runs next season.

 

Eric Byrnes WILL hit .300 this season.

 

 

Trust me guys, they will. Mark it down. No question about it.

Edited February 29, 2008 by 17 Seconds

[17 Seconds]

out of the 1 hole? No. With better hitters behind him, I would expect it to stay in the upper .300's which puts him in select company in mlb.

 

Stop it with these fallacies. The Orioles scored more runs than the Cubs last season.

 

i would sure hope so. having a dh makes scoring runs easier than having guys like ted lilly and rich hill at the plate.

 

How they scored the runs is irrelevant to this conversation.

[TruffleShuffle]

out of the 1 hole? No. With better hitters behind him, I would expect it to stay in the upper .300's which puts him in select company in mlb.

 

Stop it with these fallacies. The Orioles scored more runs than the Cubs last season.

 

i would sure hope so. having a dh makes scoring runs easier than having guys like ted lilly and rich hill at the plate.

 

How they scored the runs is irrelevant to this conversation.

 

no it's not. you suggested that brian roberts wouldn't have better hitters behind him. to support this, you said the orioles scored more runs than the cubs last year. the orioles had a worse ops+ last season, and only scored more runs because they use a dh rather than a pitcher. additionally, the orioles scoring more runs was a function of their entire lineup, while the argument of lineup protection would only really be relevant to the players hitting in the next 1-3 spots below roberts. assuming he'd hit 2nd on the cubs, if they kept soriano at leadoff, you'd be comparing:

 

derrek lee

aramis ramirez

kosuke fukudome

 

to the guys who usually hit behind roberts last year:

 

#2: corey patterson/melvin mora/chris gomez

#3: nick markakis

#4: miguel tejada/occasionally kevin millar

[17 Seconds]

Did you ignore the part where I said that a better lineup isn't going to have a big effect on Roberts on base numbers?

 

I can't believe that you don't see a problem with a guy stating that Roberts will have a .385 OBP next season.

 

Does anyone want to make a bet that Roberts doesn't have a .385 OBP next season?

[TruffleShuffle]

Did you ignore the part where I said that a better lineup isn't going to have a big effect on Roberts on base numbers?

 

I can't believe that you don't see a problem with a guy stating that Roberts will have a .385 OBP next season.

 

Does anyone want to make a bet that Roberts doesn't have a .385 OBP next season?

 

i don't think it's likely, but given that he has done it once in the past 3 years and wasn't far off last year, i certainly wouldn't rule it out.

[17 Seconds]

He didn't say "it's a possibility" though. He said with certainty that it would happen if he was on the Cubs, which is silly. Anyways, I'd put money on him never putting up 2005 numbers again.

 

Also, I still say that Lou would probably bat Roberts 2nd if he came here. Wrigley23, however, will stick to his lie that Lou has gone on the record saying otherwise.

[wrigley23]

funny how you said you were going to put me on ignore. That lasted what...one day? The fact is that roberts has always had a higher obp than soriano. in fact, last year, it was 40 pts higher. Regardless of which lineup he hits in...he will have a higher obp than soriano this year. Why? because he is a patient hitter...a leadoff hitter. Soriano has the mentality of a run producer which lends itself to hitting behind a leadoff hitter so that his tendency for extra base hits actually get utilized. I don't buy the hitting worse argument with risp. It's high time we find out if he has shored up the mental block for the good of the team. I find it comical that you think the Cubs 3 month pursuit of roberts is because they want a #2 hitter. I highly doubt they want to give up 3-4 prospects for a 2-hole hitter. After witnessing a laughable offense in the playoffs last year & an inordinate amount of solo home runs, I find it far more likely they've decided to target a leadoff hitter & covet roberts as a result. Assuming he has been steroid & hgh free since '03...i'm all for it.

[17 Seconds]

funny how you said you were going to put me on ignore. That lasted what...one day? The fact is that roberts has always had a higher obp than soriano. in fact, last year, it was 40 pts higher. Regardless of which lineup he hits in...he will have a higher obp than soriano this year. Why? because he is a patient hitter...a leadoff hitter. Soriano has the mentality of a run producer which lends itself to hitting behind a leadoff hitter so that his tendency for extra base hits actually get utilized. I don't buy the hitting worse argument with risp. It's high time we find out if he has shored up the mental block for the good of the team. I find it comical that you think the Cubs 3 month pursuit of roberts is because they want a #2 hitter. I highly doubt they want to give up 3-4 prospects for a 2-hole hitter. After witnessing a laughable offense in the playoffs last year & an inordinate amount of solo home runs, I find it far more likely they've decided to target a leadoff hitter & covet roberts as a result. Assuming he has been steroid & hgh free since '03...i'm all for it.

 

Why are you turning this into another Soriano argument? We've been through that over and over again. I said nothing about Soriano.

 

You've yet to explain why all of Robets strengths as a leadoff hitter can't also be utilized as a number 2 hitter. "OMG! He's a leadoff hitter! He has to leadoff!". Extremely weak logic. There is nothing that Roberts brings to the table as a leadoff hitter that he also doesn't bring to the table as a number 2 hitter. Nothing.

 

By the way, Lou talked today about how good Soriano's legs look/feel and that he's be running, so there goes that small argumnet that you made. I'd be willing to bet that this would be the lineup with Roberts.

 

Soriano

Roberts

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

Pie

Theriot

 

Lefties split up, blah blah. However, I'm reasonable enough to understand that nobody knows for sure what the lineup would be, so I'm not going to say ridiculous things like "you're an idiot if you think Roberts lead off", or make up lies such as "Lou is on record as saying Roberts would bat second." I'll leave that nonsense to you.

 

Like I said, you were on ignore but I wasn't logged in so it didn't block the ridiculous .385 post. I decided that was too hilarious to not post on. Now I realize I should have left you on ignore like everyone else since you still are spewin the same garbage over and over again. Back to ignore you go.

[wrigley23]

like everyone else? how do you know everyone doesn't have you on ignore? roberts is designed to get on base. soriano swings to drive people in. Get it? The stats point it out & so does the article posted earlier today. Funny how you don't answer my question. Why are they going after roberts? because they so desparately want a #2 hitter? Yeah...that's it.

[Rob]

Like I said, you were on ignore but I wasn't logged in so it didn't block the ridiculous .385 post. I decided that was too hilarious to not post on. Now I realize I should have left you on ignore like everyone else since you still are spewin the same garbage over and over again. Back to ignore you go.

 

Seriously, please do.

 

If we all just ignore him, we wont be subjected to this nonsense anymore. But it has gotten to the point that I'm a handful of posts away from putting you on ignore, simply because all your posts are quoting his asinine posts. He's willfully ignorant of how statistical analysis has framed all of these issues, and that's his choice. No amount of screaming at him for it is going to change his opinion, even if you are attempting to argue it with fact. Just drop it, and with a little bit of luck, the issue will resolve itself in short order.

[David]

Seriously, can both these guys stop already?

[davearm2]

Seriously, can both these guys stop already?

Amen, David.

 

This dextermorgan person sure seems to be operating under the misconception that he's coming off positively here, as some sort of champion for the cause of intelligent baseball thought.

 

Fact is, he's just dragging himself through the mud and becoming less and less tolerable along the way. This ridiculous fixation with an offhanded comment about what this other poster thinks Roberts' OBP could be is just solidifying his status as unreasonable/unreadable.

 

Just skimming past all posts by both guys seems to be the smart choice here.

[17 Seconds]

like everyone else? how do you know everyone doesn't have you on ignore? roberts is designed to get on base. soriano swings to drive people in. Get it? The stats point it out & so does the article posted earlier today. Funny how you don't answer my question. Why are they going after roberts? because they so desparately want a #2 hitter? Yeah...that's it.

 

Alright, this ongoing argument is obviously annoying people, so this will be my last post to you.

 

roberts is designed to get on base.

 

 

Why are they going after roberts? because they so desparately want a #2 hitter? Yeah...that's it

 

Do you not see theridiculously flawed and short minded "logic" you're using? Why do you insist that Roberts can't be used as a number 2 hitter? I feel like I'm talking to an infant. "Oh, because he's a LEADOFF hitter!".

 

You have yet to name one thing that Roberts can do as a leadoff hitter that he can't do as a 2 hitter. You said it yourself, Roberts is designed to get on base. Is that not his goal as a number 2 hitter? You've got some bizarre concept of baseball in your mind that makes a leadoff hitter completely different than a number 2 hitter just because he has a specific name. It's like "no, a leadoff hitter can't possible bat 2nd! Then he wouldn't be a leadoff hitter and would be completely useless!" Do you really not see how incredibly foolish that is? That's like criticizing the Phillies choice to start Myers on opening day (to line up their rotation) by saying somthing like "Hamels as a number 2 starter!? But he's an ACE! A number 1 starter!! What's the point of even starting him if he's going to be a number 2 starter?! We might as well just trade him if he isn't our ACE!.

 

That sounds ridiculous, but it's exactly what you're doing. "Leadoff hitter" is a spot in the lineup, not a position in the lineup. It's not like we're getting Roberts so he can play right field or something. I've yet to hear any examples of what Roberts can do in the leadoff spot that he can't so in the 2 hole. Roberts is every bit as valuable in the 2 spot as he is in the leadoff spot. Would he hit 2nd? I really don't know for sure, but neither do you. Stop it with this ridiculous and warped logic.

 

Ok, I'm done. I promise this time. Everytime I see a post from this guy I can't resist, but I won't be reading them anymore.

 

I apologize to everyone on this board.

[17 Seconds]

Seriously, can both these guys stop already?

this other poster thinks Roberts' OBP could be is just solidifying his status as unreasonable/unreadable.

 

Again, he never said could, or I wouldn't have said anything. He said would. There's a difference.

Edited February 29, 2008 by 17 Seconds

[davearm2]

Seriously, can both these guys stop already?

this other poster thinks Roberts' OBP could be is just solidifying his status as unreasonable/unreadable.

 

Again, he never said could, or I wouldn't have said anything. He said would. There's a difference.

Yep. There's indeed a difference.

 

It's about 10% as large as you're making it out to be, but it's there.

 

I see it as a top-of-mind guesstimate, not the sort of stone cold lead pipe lock you're apparently perceiving it was meant as.

 

Nobody here is speaking literally when they throw these forecasts around.

[17 Seconds]

Seriously, can both these guys stop already?

this other poster thinks Roberts' OBP could be is just solidifying his status as unreasonable/unreadable.

 

Again, he never said could, or I wouldn't have said anything. He said would. There's a difference.

Yep. There's indeed a difference.

 

It's about 10% as large as you're making it out to be, but it's there.

 

I agree I made too big of a deal out of it and I shouldn't have even said anything. I just don't like it when people try to validate going after players because of things like that. It's along the same lines as "The Rangers want Murton and Ceda/Veal for Marlon Byrd? Give it to them, Byrd will hit .310!" or "Let's get Aubrey Huff, when he gets a change of scenery he'll hit like he did from 02-04!" Sure, it's fine to "guesstimate" those things, but be reasonable. I don't think expecting Roberts to get on base at a .385 clip next season is reasonable. Could it happen? Sure, but Lee could also hit 46 home runs again and I don't go around saying things like "Our offense will be much better next season....Lee will hit 46 home runs!"