Cubs Payroll as of 11/13

[xecuter83]

So with Jones being traded and the Cubs acquiring Infante, it looks like the Cubs payroll is around $90 mill right now. Now, it's said that we will have a $115 mill budget for 2008 which means, if i did my math correctly, that we have $25 mill to spend. Although this does not include players like wood that need to be re-signed. Is that $90 mill number correct?

[inari]

Without looking at any numbers, I'm almost positive that's not correct. There's no way we have that much money to spend.

[nilodnayr]

See sticky(s)...although last time I did the calc a month or so ago we were at $108M with bonuses, $100M without.

[inari]

Hm... well, Infante's gonna cost money and we sent a little money for Jacque. I think we'll end up breaking even or saving a million.

[UMFan83]

So with Jones being traded and the Cubs acquiring Infante, it looks like the Cubs payroll is around $90 mill right now. Now, it's said that we will have a $115 mill budget for 2008 which means, if i did my math correctly, that we have $25 mill to spend. Although this does not include players like wood that need to be re-signed. Is that $90 mill number correct?

 

Are you including the rising cost of all of our backloaded contracts to players like Soriano, Lilly, DeRosa?

[JeffH]

Disclaimer: In my payroll calcs, I do not spread out signing bonuses across the life of the contract unless it is reported that the bonus will be paid that way (like Jacque's).

 

Currently under signed contract: $92,025,000 (Soriano, Ramirez, DeRosa, Lee, Ward, Blanco, Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Dempster, Ohman, Eyre, Howry)

 

Arbitration eligible and likely to be tendered: $2,250,000 (Infante, Wuertz)

 

Our own free agents likely to be re-signed: $5,000,000 (Wood)

 

Other monies committed: $2,100,000 (payment to Detroit for Jones, buyout of Trachsel's option)

 

Auto-renewal players likely to be on the roster ($425,000 per): $2,975,000 (Pie, Theriot, Soto, Murton, Hill, Hart, Marmol)

 

Subtotal: $104,350,000

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

If we dump Monroe(per rumors today) does that help us any?

[JeffH]

If we dump Monroe(per rumors today) does that help us any?

 

Nope. He will be (would have been) an almost certain non-tender.

[brinoch]

If you're looking to clear salary to acquire a free agent, your best bet is to trade (some or all of) these replacement level players:

 

$6.375M -- Marquis

$5.5M -- Dempster

$3.8M -- Eyre

$2.8M -- Blanco

$1.6M -- Ohman

 

$20.075M -- Total

 

Yes, the Cubs have $20M allocated to relatively useless replacement level players. Hendry's prolific wastage on marginal players is legendary. It's been a source of continual disappointment and irritation, and serves among the primary reasons that the Cubs cannot go out and make huge upgrades.

[UMFan83]

If you're looking to clear salary to acquire a free agent, your best bet is to trade (some or all of) these replacement level players:

 

$6.375M -- Marquis

$5.5M -- Dempster

$3.8M -- Eyre

$2.8M -- Blanco

$1.6M -- Ohman

 

$20.075M -- Total

 

Yes, the Cubs have $20M allocated to relatively useless replacement level players. Hendry's prolific wastage on marginal players is legendary. It's been a source of continual disappointment and irritation, and serves among the primary reasons that the Cubs cannot go out and make huge upgrades.

 

I know your not suggesting that we can trade these guys, and its more a point about how crappy some of Hendry's signings are, but most of those players are untradable unless the Cubs take on almost all of their salaries. Otherwise, Jones would have been on your list yesterday. But apparently we only dumped $1.5 million by trading him. You can probably also add Infante and his $1.5+ million salary to that list as well.

[Guest]

If you're looking to clear salary to acquire a free agent, your best bet is to trade (some or all of) these replacement level players:

 

$6.375M -- Marquis

$5.5M -- Dempster

$3.8M -- Eyre

$2.8M -- Blanco

$1.6M -- Ohman

 

$20.075M -- Total

 

Yes, the Cubs have $20M allocated to relatively useless replacement level players. Hendry's prolific wastage on marginal players is legendary. It's been a source of continual disappointment and irritation, and serves among the primary reasons that the Cubs cannot go out and make huge upgrades.

 

I know your not suggesting that we can trade these guys, and its more a point about how crappy some of Hendry's signings are, but most of those players are untradable unless the Cubs take on almost all of their salaries. Otherwise, Jones would have been on your list yesterday. But apparently we only dumped $1.5 million by trading him. You can probably also add Infante and his $1.5+ million salary to that list as well.

Please explain how we only dumped $1.5M.

[CubColtPacer]

If you're looking to clear salary to acquire a free agent, your best bet is to trade (some or all of) these replacement level players:

 

$6.375M -- Marquis

$5.5M -- Dempster

$3.8M -- Eyre

$2.8M -- Blanco

$1.6M -- Ohman

 

$20.075M -- Total

 

Yes, the Cubs have $20M allocated to relatively useless replacement level players. Hendry's prolific wastage on marginal players is legendary. It's been a source of continual disappointment and irritation, and serves among the primary reasons that the Cubs cannot go out and make huge upgrades.

 

What do you define as replacement level? I'd only define maybe 2 of those guys as replacment level. The others are average ballplayers who are overpaid (and the jury's still out on Marquis. With the way the pitching market is going, he may end up as an around average starter at an average or below average salary). Plus 3 of those are relievers, and there are tons of average relievers around the league that are overpaid, and the list grows every year.

[UMFan83]

If you're looking to clear salary to acquire a free agent, your best bet is to trade (some or all of) these replacement level players:

 

$6.375M -- Marquis

$5.5M -- Dempster

$3.8M -- Eyre

$2.8M -- Blanco

$1.6M -- Ohman

 

$20.075M -- Total

 

Yes, the Cubs have $20M allocated to relatively useless replacement level players. Hendry's prolific wastage on marginal players is legendary. It's been a source of continual disappointment and irritation, and serves among the primary reasons that the Cubs cannot go out and make huge upgrades.

 

I know your not suggesting that we can trade these guys, and its more a point about how crappy some of Hendry's signings are, but most of those players are untradable unless the Cubs take on almost all of their salaries. Otherwise, Jones would have been on your list yesterday. But apparently we only dumped $1.5 million by trading him. You can probably also add Infante and his $1.5+ million salary to that list as well.

Please explain how we only dumped $1.5M.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/647152,CST-SPT-cub13.article

 

Jones, who has a $5.5 million salary in 2008, was traded along with $2 million for utility infielder Omar Infante, a lifetime .253 hitter who played six positions in 2007.

 

So $5.5 m - $2 m - $1.5 m (Infante's projected salary next year) = $2 million.

 

I got the $1.5 million figure from MLBtraderumors.com who was speculating about it.

 

Turns out the Cubs added a nice bonus for the Tigers to take Jacque Jones off their hands: $2MM in cash. So let's see here. Omar Infante will be up around $1.5MM in '08, and the Cubs tossed in $2MM. Jones makes $5MM in '08, though I'm not sure which team pays out the final chunk of his $4MM bonus. But I think it's fair to say that this "salary dump" saved the Cubs about $1.5MM. The Tigers got Jones pretty cheaply.

[Guest]

Interesting. It's been widely reported that Jones' signing bonus was evenly spread, which would add another $1.33M to the total saved by trading him.

 

Given the news that we sent $2M instead of the original $1M, I'd be inclined to conclude we saved around $2.8M on the deal.

[TheDude]

If you're looking to clear salary to acquire a free agent, your best bet is to trade (some or all of) these replacement level players:

 

$6.375M -- Marquis

$5.5M -- Dempster

$3.8M -- Eyre

$2.8M -- Blanco

$1.6M -- Ohman

 

$20.075M -- Total

 

Yes, the Cubs have $20M allocated to relatively useless replacement level players. Hendry's prolific wastage on marginal players is legendary. It's been a source of continual disappointment and irritation, and serves among the primary reasons that the Cubs cannot go out and make huge upgrades.

 

You're really making a lot of assumptions here. Firstly, Marquis, Ohman, and Dempster are making market value. One could argue Dempster is making below market value for a closer. Eyre and Blanco are overpaid by 3 million compared to the league averages for veterans in those slots.

 

Yes these players could be replaced by farm products at significantly reduced cost - I'm not going to argue that point because its correct. But this notion that Hendry is alone among GMs and teams around the league by having overpaid average veterans is off-base. Even the most heralded and lauded GMs in baseball have contracts like these on their teams. It seems like unnecessary and exaggerated piling on.

[jjwalker48]

$3.8M -- Eyre

 

 

I believe Eyres contract is a club option for next year, so can we assume that there is a possibility he wont be coming back? That would free up quite a bit.

[Guest]

$3.8M -- Eyre

 

 

I believe Eyres contract is a club option for next year, so can we assume that there is a possibility he wont be coming back? That would free up quite a bit.

It's a player option and I believe it has been exercised, though that is not confirmed.

[CubColtPacer]

$3.8M -- Eyre

 

 

I believe Eyres contract is a club option for next year, so can we assume that there is a possibility he wont be coming back? That would free up quite a bit.

 

It's a player option, and he didn't file for free agency by yesterday so he's coming back next year.

[brinoch]

What do you define as replacement level? I'd only define maybe 2 of those guys as replacment level. The others are average ballplayers who are overpaid (and the jury's still out on Marquis. With the way the pitching market is going, he may end up as an around average starter at an average or below average salary). Plus 3 of those are relievers, and there are tons of average relievers around the league that are overpaid, and the list grows every year.

 

Since there's only one position player on the list, I'll simply note that Blanco's VORP is -6.1. The rest of the Cubs' catching corps wasn't much better, posting:

 

Cubs Catching VORP

10.9 -- Soto

5.0 -- Barrett

3.3 -- Kendall

-5.7 -- Bowen

-6.1 -- Blanco

-7.4 -- Hill

 

Obviously, Soto was the best catcher we had all season, even accounting for his limited starts. Blanco, despite being injured most of the season, was worse than all but Koyie Hill -- who can't hit.

 

Cubs Pitching VORP

46.7 -- Ted Lilly

43.5 -- Carlos Zambrano

40.3 -- Rich Hill

34.5 -- Carlos Marmol

22.7 -- Bob Howry

17.8 -- Michael Wuertz

16.7 -- Sean Marshall

16.5 -- Jason Marquis

8.7 -- Scott Eyre

8.2 -- Ryan Dempster

8.0 -- Angel Guzman

7.1 -- Kerry Wood

6.2 -- Kevin Hart

4.1 -- Will Ohman

3.9 -- Rocky Cherry

2.0 -- Neal Cotts

0.3 -- Carmen Pignatiello

0.2 -- Clay Rapada

-1.6 -- Billy Petrick

-4.7 -- Steve Trachsel

-5.1 -- Sean Gallagher

-6.7 -- Wade Miller

 

The idea of VORP is to grade the value of a player over a replacement scrub would do. Here's a link to BP's definition (and that's where I pulled all these stats). Note that Sean Marshall, essentially written off by the Cubs, scores slightly higher than Marquis. Marquis provides little benefit for his $6.375M over Marshall's $400K.

 

And Ohman, Dempster and Eyre? Look at Howry, Wuertz and Marmol. The top 3 in the bullpen are significantly better than the bottom 3 in terms of VORP -- fair enough -- except that the contract costs of the bottom 3 exceed those of the top three. A distinct inefficiency. The Cubs would be better off, were one to do a cost-benefit analysis, going with relative unknowns from the farm system and plugging them in as needed over high-price veteran relievers.

 

Hendry's obsession with fixing a defined problem -- which changes from year to year -- leads him to overvalue marginal players and pay them too much. One season, it was the bullpen, so Hendry threw a bunch of money at it. Moreover, this demonstrates, again, the value of a farm system that generates a reasonable amount MLB talent. The Cubs have pitching coming out the ears; rather than trade pitching for "speed" and a "lead-off guy" (Pierre, Juan -- yet another "problem") the Cubs should pay money to sign the best hitting FA's and use their organizational strength to fill in the bullpen.

[mdwilla]

I have read reports that the payroll will be raised for next season but haven't heard 115 million. For some reason I thought I heard Kap saying the Tribune was willing to take the payroll just south of 125 million. If Hendry can find a way to move Marquis ,Ohman, for anything of vaule the Cubs should have enough money to make some serious moves. I think really think Hendry has his eyes set on Fukodome and Tejeda this offseason . With Dempster returning to the rotation and Wood likely coming back don't be suprized if Hendry takes a flyer on another arm for the bullpen.

[brinoch]

You're really making a lot of assumptions here. Firstly, Marquis, Ohman, and Dempster are making market value. One could argue Dempster is making below market value for a closer. Eyre and Blanco are overpaid by 3 million compared to the league averages for veterans in those slots.

 

Yes these players could be replaced by farm products at significantly reduced cost - I'm not going to argue that point because its correct. But this notion that Hendry is alone among GMs and teams around the league by having overpaid average veterans is off-base. Even the most heralded and lauded GMs in baseball have contracts like these on their teams. It seems like unnecessary and exaggerated piling on.

 

Dempster is below market value because he's not very good, though since I believe closer is an overrated position, I believe Dempster does the least damage there. Certainly, as a starter, he's way overpaid. I'll take Sean Marshall over Dempster any day. The Marquis contract is especially egregious. But, frankly, rather than continue arguing specifics about player x or player y, I want to emphasize the trend: Hendry pays too much for crappy players. By the way, I make this complaint every offseason. It's not unnecessary or exaggerated piling on. This is a specific, valid critique of Hendry as the Cubs GM.

 

And a further point, I don't care whether or not other GM's do this. That doesn't make it smart. In fact, to my mind, it demonstrates that baseball GM's consistently overvalue bullpen pitching. Given that we know reliever performance is highly variable from year to year, paying for past performance here is a bad idea. Instead, use your minor league system to develop a solid relieving corps, keep them through their early arby years, and either trade them or let them go as they get expensive. Let other teams spend their cash on relievers while you save money to sign a worthwhile starter or a slugging SS.

[nilodnayr]

I have read reports that the payroll will be raised for next season but haven't heard 115 million. For some reason I thought I heard Kap saying the Tribune was willing to take the payroll just south of 125 million. If Hendry can find a way to move Marquis ,Ohman, for anything of vaule the Cubs should have enough money to make some serious moves. I think really think Hendry has his eyes set on Fukodome and Tejeda this offseason . With Dempster returning to the rotation and Wood likely coming back don't be suprized if Hendry takes a flyer on another arm for the bullpen.

 

Rozner said "it was going to increase about 15% to 115M".

[nilodnayr]

I have read reports that the payroll will be raised for next season but haven't heard 115 million. For some reason I thought I heard Kap saying the Tribune was willing to take the payroll just south of 125 million. If Hendry can find a way to move Marquis ,Ohman, for anything of vaule the Cubs should have enough money to make some serious moves. I think really think Hendry has his eyes set on Fukodome and Tejeda this offseason . With Dempster returning to the rotation and Wood likely coming back don't be suprized if Hendry takes a flyer on another arm for the bullpen.

 

Rozner said "it was going to increase about 15% to 115M".

 

Ohh and the payroll for 2007 was 100M using prorated bonuses unless otherwise stated according to Cots. So, Rozner's number jives with that method. Its about 108M without Woody right now using that method.

[TheDude]

You're really making a lot of assumptions here. Firstly, Marquis, Ohman, and Dempster are making market value. One could argue Dempster is making below market value for a closer. Eyre and Blanco are overpaid by 3 million compared to the league averages for veterans in those slots.

 

Yes these players could be replaced by farm products at significantly reduced cost - I'm not going to argue that point because its correct. But this notion that Hendry is alone among GMs and teams around the league by having overpaid average veterans is off-base. Even the most heralded and lauded GMs in baseball have contracts like these on their teams. It seems like unnecessary and exaggerated piling on.

 

Dempster is below market value because he's not very good, though since I believe closer is an overrated position, I believe Dempster does the least damage there. Certainly, as a starter, he's way overpaid. I'll take Sean Marshall over Dempster any day. The Marquis contract is especially egregious. But, frankly, rather than continue arguing specifics about player x or player y, I want to emphasize the trend: Hendry pays too much for crappy players. By the way, I make this complaint every offseason. It's not unnecessary or exaggerated piling on. This is a specific, valid critique of Hendry as the Cubs GM.

 

And a further point, I don't care whether or not other GM's do this. That doesn't make it smart. In fact, to my mind, it demonstrates that baseball GM's consistently overvalue bullpen pitching. Given that we know reliever performance is highly variable from year to year, paying for past performance here is a bad idea. Instead, use your minor league system to develop a solid relieving corps, keep them through their early arby years, and either trade them or let them go as they get expensive. Let other teams spend their cash on relievers while you save money to sign a worthwhile starter or a slugging SS.

 

Here is the trouble - you can't simply ignore what other baseball GMs do out of convenience. Market values are established, this can't be changed. Your model calls for signing only elite veterans and utilizing the farm everywhere else. I don't know how realistic this is. The Marquis signing was only egregious for years, not value. Marquis was going to make that value wherever he signed, but he did not deserve three years.

 

So my point is this: rather than state 'Hendry pays too much crappy players', I think you ought to be stating 'crappy players make too much money everywhere'. Hendry does slightly overpay even on inflated market values, and he has a bad habit of adding one year too many, which is no doubt annoying and frustrating, but relative to the market value, the difference is not significant (total sum on these discrepancies would be under 5 million). These players would be earning similar salaries anywhere in baseball. Even GMs like Beane and Scheurholtz overpay for veteran guys with average talent. They all do it.

 

So I'm not concerned with what may be 'smart', because baseball management doesn't follow your or my version of smart. I look the scope the way it is, not the way I think it ought to be. The reality is that you can expect average veterans with inflated salaries on every team in baseball. The best you can hope for out of Hendry conforming to your model is to simply *not sign* any average veteran, or minimize these signings.

[brinoch]

Mostly I was talking about this strategy for the bullpen, not for each and every position.