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Posted
So we're convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, we're willing to take that $10m risk?

 

 

See calcs that CCP and I did above...

 

It's kind of hard to figure out which are the right numbers, but it looks like the translation estimates an .831 OPS at age 30. Murton's 26 and has an .810 last year. And he's been much better than that in the 2nd half of each of the last 2 seasons. I guess I'm far from convinced that Kosuke is $9-10m better than Murton (if he's in RF; if he'd be the CF, that's a different issue).

 

Yeah, I got .795 using Matsui as a translator, he got .831 using Matsui and Ichiro as a translator. I think a slap hitter will have a much better translation than a line drive hitter (and the numbers show it). Fukudome is more like Matsui than Ichiro. But, its good to have more sample. Using my prediction as a low end and CCPs as the high end sounds fair. In other words, Matt Murton.

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Posted

"Man, if they get Crawford...just WOW!!!

Their lineup will be scary!!!"

 

This is a quote from the Cards forum on STL today......

 

I'm not sure I'm all that excited about it...but anything that makes St.Louis fans mad can't be all bad.

Posted
"Man, if they get Crawford...just WOW!!!

Their lineup will be scary!!!"

 

This is a quote from the Cards forum on STL today......

 

I'm not sure I'm all that excited about it...but anything that makes St.Louis fans mad can't be all bad.

 

Thats some hard hitting analysis from the smartest fans in baseball.

Posted

Did anyone else har Bruce Levine say that the Cubs are puting together a package for Crawford? Its on mlbtraderumors.com

 

 

 

A trusted reader dropped me a line regarding a Bruce Levine appearance on ESPN Radio 1000. Remember, Levine was the guy who scooped the Jacque Jones trade.

 

Levine reported today that the Cubs are putting together a package of young talent in an attempt to acquire the Rays' Carl Crawford. That would leave the Cubs with a speedy, athletic outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, and Crawford.

 

The emailer says today's report did not mention names. Ronny Cedeno would certainly be a useful addition for the Rays, and you'd have to expect some premium pitching heading over as well. I'm thinking Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, or both. The problem with these proposed blockbuster deals is they often open up new holes. Thoughts?

Posted
Did anyone else har Bruce Levine say that the Cubs are puting together a package for Crawford? Its on mlbtraderumors.com

 

 

 

A trusted reader dropped me a line regarding a Bruce Levine appearance on ESPN Radio 1000. Remember, Levine was the guy who scooped the Jacque Jones trade.

 

Levine reported today that the Cubs are putting together a package of young talent in an attempt to acquire the Rays' Carl Crawford. That would leave the Cubs with a speedy, athletic outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, and Crawford.

 

The emailer says today's report did not mention names. Ronny Cedeno would certainly be a useful addition for the Rays, and you'd have to expect some premium pitching heading over as well. I'm thinking Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, or both. The problem with these proposed blockbuster deals is they often open up new holes. Thoughts?

 

That would be terrible deal for the Cubs. Our starting pitching and bullpen would be in flux. No thanks.

Posted

can we please stop proposing 8-for-1 deals for Crawford? I would give no more than 3 players for him

 

also, what was the regression for Ichiro from his last 3 years in Japan to his first 3 years in the US?

Posted
Did anyone else har Bruce Levine say that the Cubs are puting together a package for Crawford? Its on mlbtraderumors.com

 

 

 

A trusted reader dropped me a line regarding a Bruce Levine appearance on ESPN Radio 1000. Remember, Levine was the guy who scooped the Jacque Jones trade.

 

Levine reported today that the Cubs are putting together a package of young talent in an attempt to acquire the Rays' Carl Crawford. That would leave the Cubs with a speedy, athletic outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, and Crawford.

 

The emailer says today's report did not mention names. Ronny Cedeno would certainly be a useful addition for the Rays, and you'd have to expect some premium pitching heading over as well. I'm thinking Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, or both. The problem with these proposed blockbuster deals is they often open up new holes. Thoughts?

 

He did indeed say such things

Posted
Did anyone else har Bruce Levine say that the Cubs are puting together a package for Crawford? Its on mlbtraderumors.com

 

 

 

A trusted reader dropped me a line regarding a Bruce Levine appearance on ESPN Radio 1000. Remember, Levine was the guy who scooped the Jacque Jones trade.

 

Levine reported today that the Cubs are putting together a package of young talent in an attempt to acquire the Rays' Carl Crawford. That would leave the Cubs with a speedy, athletic outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, and Crawford.

 

The emailer says today's report did not mention names. Ronny Cedeno would certainly be a useful addition for the Rays, and you'd have to expect some premium pitching heading over as well. I'm thinking Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, or both. The problem with these proposed blockbuster deals is they often open up new holes. Thoughts?

 

I did hear it. It wasn't a real in-depth report, just a baseball update during their local Sports Center.

Posted
Did anyone else har Bruce Levine say that the Cubs are puting together a package for Crawford? Its on mlbtraderumors.com

 

 

 

A trusted reader dropped me a line regarding a Bruce Levine appearance on ESPN Radio 1000. Remember, Levine was the guy who scooped the Jacque Jones trade.

 

Levine reported today that the Cubs are putting together a package of young talent in an attempt to acquire the Rays' Carl Crawford. That would leave the Cubs with a speedy, athletic outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, and Crawford.

 

The emailer says today's report did not mention names. Ronny Cedeno would certainly be a useful addition for the Rays, and you'd have to expect some premium pitching heading over as well. I'm thinking Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, or both. The problem with these proposed blockbuster deals is they often open up new holes. Thoughts?

 

This was brought up in the other Crawford thread, but I can't see why TB wouldn't want Gallagher/Marshall over Hill. Hill is far closer to arb than those other two. They need as much pitching under club control for as long as possible.

Posted

Carl Crawford would be the best player on the Cubs for the next 5 years (minimum) if he gets to the north side. The guy is an incredible athlete who completely changes the game with his speed. He's a rich man's Juan Pierre. Rickey Henderson comparisons aren't that big of a stretch in my opinion.

 

I'd give up any 3 players outside of Zambrano, Lee, and Ramirez for him. (Hill, Marmol, Pie MIGHT be the only exception).

Posted
How Carl Crawford become so overrated is beyond me.

 

He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he put up monster numbers outside of Tropicana field last year...he's entering the prime of his career...those are some reasons....not saying I agree with all of them, but if you could have an OF of Soriano, Pie and Crawford...and then find an offensive upgrade at SS...that'd be the makings of an outstanding all around team.

Posted

Putting together a package for Crawford is going to be difficult.

 

Hill is too much. Gallagher/Marshall/Petrick/Murton/Cedeno/... in quantity is not going to be enough.

 

They Rays are going to want someone with a reasonable chance to be a high-end difference-maker.

 

I know he's been written off by a good portion of the board, but Samardzija might fit.

 

Samardzija, Gallagher, Cedeno, and Petrick for Crawford?

Posted
Carl Crawford would be the best player on the Cubs for the next 5 years (minimum) if he gets to the north side.

 

Are we trading D. Lee, Aram, Soriano, and Zambrano?

 

 

The guy is an incredible athlete who completely changes the game with his speed.

Please explain this

 

 

He's a rich man's Juan Pierre.

Is that a compliment?

 

 

Rickey Henderson comparisons aren't that big of a stretch in my opinion.

oh yes..they are.

Posted
How Carl Crawford become so overrated is beyond me.

 

steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals steals

 

To his credit though, he does have an excellent success rate

Posted
How Carl Crawford become so overrated is beyond me.

it was roughly around the same time he was a 26 year old that was pretty damn good at playing baseball

 

His career high OPS is 830. Is that "damn good baseball"?

 

I'm not as high on him as many others, but you have to take into account he's done what he's done by age 25. If you were to take a look at his comparable players through age 25 on baseballreference.com, you'd be impressed (Raines, Yaz and Clemente included). I would say he's been pretty darn good, at least. OPS+ of 105 at age 22, and it's only gone up. He's got some flaws that would probably keep him from ever becoming truly great, but he should be a really solid bet to produce very nice numbers for the next 5-8 years. He'll probably be outproducing Soriano within a couple years at most.

Posted
How Carl Crawford become so overrated is beyond me.

it was roughly around the same time he was a 26 year old that was pretty damn good at playing baseball

 

His career high OPS is 830. Is that "damn good baseball"?

 

Only 31 points higher than the ML average for LF last year...lets trade the farm and sign him to a $136M extention!!!

Posted
How Carl Crawford become so overrated is beyond me.

it was roughly around the same time he was a 26 year old that was pretty damn good at playing baseball

 

His career high OPS is 830. Is that "damn good baseball"?

 

I'm not as high on him as many others, but you have to take into account he's done what he's done by age 25. If you were to take a look at his comparable players through age 25 on baseballreference.com, you'd be impressed (Raines, Yaz and Clemente included). I would say he's been pretty darn good, at least. OPS+ of 105 at age 22, and it's only gone up. He's got some flaws that would probably keep him from ever becoming truly great, but he should be a really solid bet to produce very nice numbers for the next 5-8 years. He'll probably be outproducing Soriano within a couple years at most.

 

Although, thats going to be just as much of Sorianos fault as it is Crawfords.

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