A-rod will opt out says SI

[CubFanPhilly]

Plug in A Rod at 8/240 mil with the scheduled payroll and you get approximately $140 mil. committed for 2008 and 2009. That includes $6 mil. to re-sign Wood and Prior to 1-year deals (not including the incentives you'd likely need).

 

-Backload a bit and it's 134/134.

-Cut Wood & Prior loose it's 128/134.

-Deal Dempster or Jones it's 122/134.

-Deal Marquis it's 116/124 (assuming somebody takes on his full contract).

 

As others have said it's 2009 that's the problem. 124-134 committed with half the bullpen and at least one starter position to fill.

 

As far as re-capturing the investment, well if you did it with ticket prices alone, you'd have to increase prices by $10 per seat. Hello, $52 bleacher seats.

 

Not likely, but my fingers are crossed anyway. I think it'd take a modest discount by A Rod to even begin a discussion.

 

CFP

[Tracer Bullet]

Plug in A Rod at 8/240 mil with the scheduled payroll and you get approximately $140 mil. committed for 2008 and 2009. That includes $6 mil. to re-sign Wood and Prior to 1-year deals (not including the incentives you'd likely need).

 

-Backload a bit and it's 134/134.

-Cut Wood & Prior loose it's 128/134.

-Deal Dempster or Jones it's 122/134.

-Deal Marquis it's 116/124 (assuming somebody takes on his full contract).

 

As others have said it's 2009 that's the problem. 124-134 committed with half the bullpen and at least one starter position to fill.

 

As far as re-capturing the investment, well if you did it with ticket prices alone, you'd have to increase prices by $10 per seat. Hello, $52 bleacher seats.

 

Not likely, but my fingers are crossed anyway. I think it'd take a modest discount by A Rod to even begin a discussion.

 

CFP

 

If money is the only hold up to signing Arod, we should deal Jones, Dempster, and Marquis if that will help. I can't believe we couldn't get rid of Jones and Dempster w/o having to pay much of their contracts if we take back basically nothing. Not so sure about Marquis, but it'd be nice if we could deal him and not have to eat much of his contract.

 

We have enough end of the bullpen guys that one of them could step in and close. If we get ARod, I think we have to give Pie and Murton the keys to CF and RF for at least next year. With a rotation of Z, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, we could use Prior, Gallagher, etc as the #5.

 

Basically, if ARod decides he wants to play in Chicago and he can play SS w/o severely injuring himself or others, I don't think we can afford to let money be the only obstacle. He turned down a huge chunk of cash to get out of NYC, so you'd think money isn't the only consideration for him. And at the same time, being a contender isn't enough by itself b/c the Yankees are obviously a perennial contender. It would appear that he wants to make a lot of money (though I'm not convinced he's going to demand $30m for 8 years) while playing for a contender in a place that he will also be happy. I'm guessing that narrows the list of options to Boston, LAA, and us. I don't see the Mets getting involved with Wright & Reyes already over there. If he really likes Lou, I would think his top choice has to be either here or Boston.

 

Man, I've love to see what ARod could do facing NLC pitching.

[moorecg]

Does anyone think that if it looked like Boston was going to sign him that the Yankees might "forget" their pledge not to get involved? Do you think that's what Boras is counting on?

[badnews]

We need that money to pick up Trachsel's option and bring back Jason Kendall!

[anabiono]

We need that money to pick up Trachsel's option and bring back Jason Kendall!

 

QFT

[Outshined_One]

Somebody will buy into A-Rod, of course. He's an extraordinary player. The cost will be hundreds of millions, and the heart and soul, of his next franchise.

 

Buster Olney is a moron.

 

Just wait. You know the columns coming over the next few months regarding A-Rod are going to be borderline insane at best.

[Backtobanks]

Plug in A Rod at 8/240 mil with the scheduled payroll and you get approximately $140 mil. committed for 2008 and 2009. That includes $6 mil. to re-sign Wood and Prior to 1-year deals (not including the incentives you'd likely need).

 

-Backload a bit and it's 134/134.

-Cut Wood & Prior loose it's 128/134.

-Deal Dempster or Jones it's 122/134.

-Deal Marquis it's 116/124 (assuming somebody takes on his full contract).

 

As others have said it's 2009 that's the problem. 124-134 committed with half the bullpen and at least one starter position to fill.

 

As far as re-capturing the investment, well if you did it with ticket prices alone, you'd have to increase prices by $10 per seat. Hello, $52 bleacher seats.

 

Not likely, but my fingers are crossed anyway. I think it'd take a modest discount by A Rod to even begin a discussion.

 

CFP

 

If money is the only hold up to signing Arod, we should deal Jones, Dempster, and Marquis if that will help. I can't believe we couldn't get rid of Jones and Dempster w/o having to pay much of their contracts if we take back basically nothing. Not so sure about Marquis, but it'd be nice if we could deal him and not have to eat much of his contract.

 

We have enough end of the bullpen guys that one of them could step in and close. If we get ARod, I think we have to give Pie and Murton the keys to CF and RF for at least next year. With a rotation of Z, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, we could use Prior, Gallagher, etc as the #5.

 

Basically, if ARod decides he wants to play in Chicago and he can play SS w/o severely injuring himself or others, I don't think we can afford to let money be the only obstacle. He turned down a huge chunk of cash to get out of NYC, so you'd think money isn't the only consideration for him. And at the same time, being a contender isn't enough by itself b/c the Yankees are obviously a perennial contender. It would appear that he wants to make a lot of money (though I'm not convinced he's going to demand $30m for 8 years) while playing for a contender in a place that he will also be happy. I'm guessing that narrows the list of options to Boston, LAA, and us. I don't see the Mets getting involved with Wright & Reyes already over there. If he really likes Lou, I would think his top choice has to be either here or Boston.

 

Man, I've love to see what ARod could do facing NLC pitching.

 

While I would love to see ARod on the Cubs, it isn't going to happen. The overwhelming favorites have to be the Angels and Red Sox. They both have the money and are capable of delivering the WS ring that he wants. Many of the other teams mentioned (White Sox, Mariners, Giants, Orioles, Marlins, etc.) are more than one superstar away from contending. The Mets have Wright and Reyes on the left side of the infield. The Phillies would still be without pitching and wouldn't have the money to acquire any pitchers after signing ARod. Getting back to the Cubs, it starts with the expensive long-term contract. Secondly, dumping Dempster, Jones, and Marquis for prospects and not picking up much of their contracts is unlikely. Finally, ARod would probably like to stay in the AL where he knows the pitchers and the DH position is available for later in his career. A third place finish in the ARod sweepstakes for the Cubs.

[Tracer Bullet]

Plug in A Rod at 8/240 mil with the scheduled payroll and you get approximately $140 mil. committed for 2008 and 2009. That includes $6 mil. to re-sign Wood and Prior to 1-year deals (not including the incentives you'd likely need).

 

-Backload a bit and it's 134/134.

-Cut Wood & Prior loose it's 128/134.

-Deal Dempster or Jones it's 122/134.

-Deal Marquis it's 116/124 (assuming somebody takes on his full contract).

 

As others have said it's 2009 that's the problem. 124-134 committed with half the bullpen and at least one starter position to fill.

 

As far as re-capturing the investment, well if you did it with ticket prices alone, you'd have to increase prices by $10 per seat. Hello, $52 bleacher seats.

 

Not likely, but my fingers are crossed anyway. I think it'd take a modest discount by A Rod to even begin a discussion.

 

CFP

 

If money is the only hold up to signing Arod, we should deal Jones, Dempster, and Marquis if that will help. I can't believe we couldn't get rid of Jones and Dempster w/o having to pay much of their contracts if we take back basically nothing. Not so sure about Marquis, but it'd be nice if we could deal him and not have to eat much of his contract.

 

We have enough end of the bullpen guys that one of them could step in and close. If we get ARod, I think we have to give Pie and Murton the keys to CF and RF for at least next year. With a rotation of Z, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, we could use Prior, Gallagher, etc as the #5.

 

Basically, if ARod decides he wants to play in Chicago and he can play SS w/o severely injuring himself or others, I don't think we can afford to let money be the only obstacle. He turned down a huge chunk of cash to get out of NYC, so you'd think money isn't the only consideration for him. And at the same time, being a contender isn't enough by itself b/c the Yankees are obviously a perennial contender. It would appear that he wants to make a lot of money (though I'm not convinced he's going to demand $30m for 8 years) while playing for a contender in a place that he will also be happy. I'm guessing that narrows the list of options to Boston, LAA, and us. I don't see the Mets getting involved with Wright & Reyes already over there. If he really likes Lou, I would think his top choice has to be either here or Boston.

 

Man, I've love to see what ARod could do facing NLC pitching.

 

While I would love to see ARod on the Cubs, it isn't going to happen. The overwhelming favorites have to be the Angels and Red Sox. They both have the money and are capable of delivering the WS ring that he wants. Many of the other teams mentioned (White Sox, Mariners, Giants, Orioles, Marlins, etc.) are more than one superstar away from contending. The Mets have Wright and Reyes on the left side of the infield. The Phillies would still be without pitching and wouldn't have the money to acquire any pitchers after signing ARod. Getting back to the Cubs, it starts with the expensive long-term contract. Secondly, dumping Dempster, Jones, and Marquis for prospects and not picking up much of their contracts is unlikely. Finally, ARod would probably like to stay in the AL where he knows the pitchers and the DH position is available for later in his career. A third place finish in the ARod sweepstakes for the Cubs.

 

I'm not sure that's true. If he wants a ring, his top choices (not necessarily in this order) would be Boston, NYY, LAA...and us. Yes, we're a flawed team. But we have 4 very good/great players in or very near their peaks locked up for a while (Z, Lee, ARam, Soriano). Plus, we play in probably the weakest division in baseball. ARod is smart enough to realize that the WS winner isn't necessarily the best team and that frequently the best team doesn't even make the WS, so maybe his best chance to win one is to get out of the ALE and not have to fight either Boston or NYY every year. If that's his thinking, maybe the top 2 teams are us and the Angels. It's hard to say what he's thinking.

 

As for the DH - meh. If his offense remains but he suddenly can't play D, we can move him to 1B or trade him to an AL team. Worst case scenario he falls fast offensively and defensively and we're stuck with him or most of his contract (and trade him). ARod doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that thinks he'll be DH'ing in 3 years or even 5 years, so I don't think that's going to alter his decision any.

[Soul]

That might be the one thing going for us. ARod has to know that the easiest path to the World Series is through the NL, not the AL. Of course, if he goes to the BoSox they would instantly be the prohibitive favorites to win it all next year.

 

So I don't know. I still think the Cubs are an outside option, but not the most likely option, for ARod.

 

Just imagine the ticket sales if he did come here. Cubs.com better buy some new servers for February to handle the extra traffic 8-)

[moorecg]

That might be the one thing going for us. ARod has to know that the easiest path to the World Series is through the NL, not the AL. Of course, if he goes to the BoSox they would instantly be the prohibitive favorites to win it all next year.

 

So I don't know. I still think the Cubs are an outside option, but not the most likely option, for ARod.

 

Just imagine the ticket sales if he did come here. Cubs.com better buy some new servers for February to handle the extra traffic 8-)

 

That's one thing going against us I'd think...The Cubs don't have any problem selling tickets the way it is....w/A-rod they could raise them $10 accross the board and still sell out every game.

[CuseCubFan69]

If I were the Mets, I'd sign ARod, trade Reyes to the Twins for Santana.

[biittner77]

If I were the Mets, I'd sign ARod, trade Reyes to the Twins for Santana.

 

I'd move Wright to LF to make room for Arod at 3rd. Wright has already said he would be willing to move.

[UMFan83]

My odds:

 

Giants - How is this not the most obvious destination? It has everything he wants/needs. West coast (will be less stressful than NY), big market, money available (with Bonds' departure), team in need of superstar to replace Bonds, and they even have the makings of a very good team with Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Lowry. Plus they are in the NL, which the Cubs and DBacks have proved you don't need much to compete. 30%

 

Angels - Also with money to spend, also a big market, also in need of a big bat (they tried to throw a ton at ARam last year), also West Coast. LA loves its big names, and I bet the Angels throw a crapload at him to ensure a World Series. 25%

 

Cubs - On the surface this looks like a good match. Big market, huge baseball following, big payroll, and Lou Piniella and his great relationship with ARod. But when you look at the fact that the Cubs free spending frenzy was last year, and the fact that the team is being sold, it makes it really hard that the Cubs will win a fierce bidding war and commit $200 million to ARod. Also, after being the scapegoat for years in NY, is he going to want to come to Chicago to be the figurehead for a franchise that is even more starving for a winner? 15%

 

Red Sox - Gosh I hope he doesn't come here. I don't think he will. The Red Sox don't need to one-up the Yankees anymore. The Red Sox are now the alpha dog in the rivalry, and they know it. I think they will resign Lowell for 2-3 years and not even enter the ARod sweepstakes, unless they want to drive up the price if the Yankees balk on their stance to not go after ARod anymore. They have a balloning payroll already and have young players like Ellsbury and Bucholtz that they will look at to improve the team, not ARod. 10%

 

Yankees - Yes, I believe that their claim to not negotiate with ARod was just a ploy to keep him from opting out. The Yankees need ARod, and cannot afford to lose him. ARod knows that the Yankees have the most assets available to sign him, but will they? My guess is they will offer ARod something (probably not much more than the extension that he turned down) and if the market goes higher, they will look other places. 10%

 

Field - Some other teams that would stand a chance of getting ARod: Orioles, Braves, Tigers, Reds, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals. Some or all of these teams will be involved, but I doubt that any of them stand a reasonable chance. 10%

[C.C.]

What about the Mets and the Dodgers?

[CuseCubFan69]

If I were the Mets, I'd sign ARod, trade Reyes to the Twins for Santana.

 

I'd move Wright to LF to make room for Arod at 3rd. Wright has already said he would be willing to move.

 

I wouldn't move a guy like Wright but I could see how that move would make sense if the Mets could swing it. Personally, I'd rather have Santana than Reyes.

[frostwyrm]

I can't see how the Cubs get into this bidding war. There are too many fat contracts already on the books and ownership is about to change. I give the Cubs no more than a 1% chance of getting ARod

[CuseCubFan69]

I can't see how the Cubs get into this bidding war. There are too many fat contracts already on the books and ownership is about to change. I give the Cubs no more than a 1% chance of getting ARod

 

With things the way they are, you're probably right. If Hendry gets a little creative with current salary and ARods, I thinks it's possible. If ARod just wants all the cash he could get, I think he would have stayed with the Yanks so maybe it's possible that he wants to play somewhere that he's comfortable and that's where Lou comes in big time.

[Backtobanks]

My odds:

 

Giants - How is this not the most obvious destination? It has everything he wants/needs. West coast (will be less stressful than NY), big market, money available (with Bonds' departure), team in need of superstar to replace Bonds, and they even have the makings of a very good team with Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Lowry. Plus they are in the NL, which the Cubs and DBacks have proved you don't need much to compete. 30%

 

I don't think the Giants can be considered because they don't have a shot at winning the ring that he obviously wants.

 

Angels - Also with money to spend, also a big market, also in need of a big bat (they tried to throw a ton at ARam last year), also West Coast. LA loves its big names, and I bet the Angels throw a crapload at him to ensure a World Series. 25%

 

Cubs - On the surface this looks like a good match. Big market, huge baseball following, big payroll, and Lou Piniella and his great relationship with ARod. But when you look at the fact that the Cubs free spending frenzy was last year, and the fact that the team is being sold, it makes it really hard that the Cubs will win a fierce bidding war and commit $200 million to ARod. Also, after being the scapegoat for years in NY, is he going to want to come to Chicago to be the figurehead for a franchise that is even more starving for a winner? 15%

 

Red Sox - Gosh I hope he doesn't come here. I don't think he will. The Red Sox don't need to one-up the Yankees anymore. The Red Sox are now the alpha dog in the rivalry, and they know it. I think they will resign Lowell for 2-3 years and not even enter the ARod sweepstakes, unless they want to drive up the price if the Yankees balk on their stance to not go after ARod anymore. They have a balloning payroll already and have young players like Ellsbury and Bucholtz that they will look at to improve the team, not ARod. 10%

 

Yankees - Yes, I believe that their claim to not negotiate with ARod was just a ploy to keep him from opting out. The Yankees need ARod, and cannot afford to lose him. ARod knows that the Yankees have the most assets available to sign him, but will they? My guess is they will offer ARod something (probably not much more than the extension that he turned down) and if the market goes higher, they will look other places. 10%

 

The Yankees just threw away $21 million they could have used in the negotiations. Yankees are out of the running for ARod.

 

Field - Some other teams that would stand a chance of getting ARod: Orioles, Braves, Tigers, Reds, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals. Some or all of these teams will be involved, but I doubt that any of them stand a reasonable chance. 10%

[/i][/b]

[frostwyrm]

I can't see how the Cubs get into this bidding war. There are too many fat contracts already on the books and ownership is about to change. I give the Cubs no more than a 1% chance of getting ARod

 

With things the way they are, you're probably right. If Hendry gets a little creative with current salary and ARods, I thinks it's possible. If ARod just wants all the cash he could get, I think he would have stayed with the Yanks so maybe it's possible that he wants to play somewhere that he's comfortable and that's where Lou comes in big time.

 

Hendry would most likely have to dump some large contracts to have any hope of getting the Trib to authorize a pursuit of ARod. DLee and Lilly could be moved, though their absence would create new holes to fill, and Hendry surely wants to keep them anyway. I think ARod is going somewhere out west.

[C.C.]

I can't see how the Cubs get into this bidding war. There are too many fat contracts already on the books and ownership is about to change. I give the Cubs no more than a 1% chance of getting ARod

 

With things the way they are, you're probably right. If Hendry gets a little creative with current salary and ARods, I thinks it's possible. If ARod just wants all the cash he could get, I think he would have stayed with the Yanks so maybe it's possible that he wants to play somewhere that he's comfortable and that's where Lou comes in big time.

 

That's asking a lot.

[HoopsCubs]

St. Louis is intriguing. After the 2008 season, they can clear ~$28M in payroll by saying goodbye to Edmonds, Looper, Encarnacion, Mulder and Isringhausen (and factoring in the salary bumps to Carpenter, Piniero and Kennedy). They could afford ARod starting in 2009.

 

But can they afford him in 2008? Only if they move 2 or 3 those 2008 free agents this offseason, or traded Scott Rolen.

 

 

Hoops

[BigbadB]

My odds:

 

Giants - How is this not the most obvious destination? It has everything he wants/needs. West coast (will be less stressful than NY), big market, money available (with Bonds' departure), team in need of superstar to replace Bonds, and they even have the makings of a very good team with Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Lowry. Plus they are in the NL, which the Cubs and DBacks have proved you don't need much to compete. 30%

 

Angels - Also with money to spend, also a big market, also in need of a big bat (they tried to throw a ton at ARam last year), also West Coast. LA loves its big names, and I bet the Angels throw a crapload at him to ensure a World Series. 25%

 

Cubs - On the surface this looks like a good match. Big market, huge baseball following, big payroll, and Lou Piniella and his great relationship with ARod. But when you look at the fact that the Cubs free spending frenzy was last year, and the fact that the team is being sold, it makes it really hard that the Cubs will win a fierce bidding war and commit $200 million to ARod. Also, after being the scapegoat for years in NY, is he going to want to come to Chicago to be the figurehead for a franchise that is even more starving for a winner? 15%

 

Red Sox - Gosh I hope he doesn't come here. I don't think he will. The Red Sox don't need to one-up the Yankees anymore. The Red Sox are now the alpha dog in the rivalry, and they know it. I think they will resign Lowell for 2-3 years and not even enter the ARod sweepstakes, unless they want to drive up the price if the Yankees balk on their stance to not go after ARod anymore. They have a balloning payroll already and have young players like Ellsbury and Bucholtz that they will look at to improve the team, not ARod. 10%

 

Yankees - Yes, I believe that their claim to not negotiate with ARod was just a ploy to keep him from opting out. The Yankees need ARod, and cannot afford to lose him. ARod knows that the Yankees have the most assets available to sign him, but will they? My guess is they will offer ARod something (probably not much more than the extension that he turned down) and if the market goes higher, they will look other places. 10%

 

Field - Some other teams that would stand a chance of getting ARod: Orioles, Braves, Tigers, Reds, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals. Some or all of these teams will be involved, but I doubt that any of them stand a reasonable chance. 10%

 

I don't understand why the Giants would garner any attention at all in the A-Rod sweepstakes. That team needs to rebuild more than any team in baseball. Outside of Zito, Cain and Lincecum, they have very little to build around. They are fresh off a last place finish that most certainly was not a fluke. They are a very bad and old team right now.

[Andy]

If I may just observe something, the fact that we're having separate rational discussions of Kobe and ARod coming to my favorite teams within a month of each other is about the hottest thing ever.

[haltz]

St. Louis is intriguing. After the 2008 season, they can clear ~$28M in payroll by saying goodbye to Edmonds, Looper, Encarnacion, Mulder and Isringhausen (and factoring in the salary bumps to Carpenter, Piniero and Kennedy). They could afford ARod starting in 2009.

 

But can they afford him in 2008? Only if they move 2 or 3 those 2008 free agents this offseason, or traded Scott Rolen.

It won't happen, and I hope it doesn't, but 2008 won't stop them from signing a megadeal if that's what they want to do.

 

Same thing with the Cubs. I don't see how Dempster or someone has anything to do with paying A-Rod some made-up number of dollars.

[CuseCubFan69]

St. Louis is intriguing. After the 2008 season, they can clear ~$28M in payroll by saying goodbye to Edmonds, Looper, Encarnacion, Mulder and Isringhausen (and factoring in the salary bumps to Carpenter, Piniero and Kennedy). They could afford ARod starting in 2009.

 

But can they afford him in 2008? Only if they move 2 or 3 those 2008 free agents this offseason, or traded Scott Rolen.

 

 

Hoops

 

This is a move they could pull off and they do need a SS.

 

My 3 teams for ARod are St. Louis, Mets and Angels.