What is the Biggest Need?

[nilodnayr]

The additions to the offense will make the pitching look better? Doesn't this work the other way as well?

 

 

No it doesn't. "People" don't value hitters on wins, however, they do value pitchers on wins. Therefore, if you improve how many runs you score, a pitcher will win more games and hence look better.

I think we need to differentiate between the performance of the 2007 Cubs offense and current projections of the 2008 lineup. I understand if you all aren't as high on Soto as I am (lol), but can we all agree he will be a big improvement over Barrett/Hill/Bowen/Kendall?

 

We all saw what happened to DLee in the 2nd half, isn't that a better projector than his (possibly still injured) 1st half?

 

The offense stands to improve as is, the rotation does not.

 

 

 

I love the ARod vs. Santana argument because it's really making my point for me. Whether or not ARod > Santana is inconsequential in my scenario, it's whether Renteria/Tejada > Santana, and hopefully we all can agree on that.

 

Huh? I don't put Santana equal to Renteria/Tejada equal on the scale of possibility. As of now, from most possible to least possible IMO it goes Renteria>>Tejada>>>>>>>>ARod>>>>>Bedard>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Santana

 

Again, I'm NOT saying that Santana is realistic (though visions of a sub-2.00 ERA in his first NL go-round are dancing in my head), just illustrating what a #1 could add to this team.

 

Where exactly did you illustrate that?

 

How about Erik Bedard? We know Baltimore has needs we can fill (closer/CF). MacPhail is there and we've already established a relationship, Bedard is coming up on free agency and the Orioles aren't close. And we DO have the chips to get this guy, imo. The question is, is he worth Marmol, Marshall/Murton and Pie?

 

221/57 K/BB, 182IP 141H for a 1.09 WHIP (in the AL East)

 

Typical, "hey this other team has an awesome guy, they'll totally trade him to us for 50 cents on the dollar!!!"

[Guest]

Only if you are concerned with pitcher wins, which you shouldn't be. Saving 60 extra runs or generating 60 extra runs should have about the same effect.

Actually. preventing 60 runs would have a greater effect since the ratio of RS/RA is changed more when you lower the denominator.

[Guest]

Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.

It's quite possible he'd be that much better than Marquis.

 

But isn't Santana replacing Hill in your scenario, not Marquis?

Wasn't trying to stay consistent with a completely unrealistic, dream scenario.

 

Besides, if we added Santana, ARod + Bonds, who cares who Santana replaces in the rotation.

[haltz]

Only if you are concerned with pitcher wins, which you shouldn't be. Saving 60 extra runs or generating 60 extra runs should have about the same effect.

Actually. preventing 60 runs would have a greater effect since the ratio of RS/RA is changed more when you lower the denominator.

I said about. In pythagorean terms it's less than a win.

[Guest]

Only if you are concerned with pitcher wins, which you shouldn't be. Saving 60 extra runs or generating 60 extra runs should have about the same effect.

Actually. preventing 60 runs would have a greater effect since the ratio of RS/RA is changed more when you lower the denominator.

I said about. In pythagorean terms it's less than a win.

Fair enough.

[muntjack]

a pitcher will win more games and hence look better.

 

If you say so. When you're trotting a Santana out there instead of Jason Marquis, the offense does not have to score as many runs in order to win.

 

 

Huh? I don't put Santana equal to Renteria/Tejada equal on the scale of possibility. As of now, from most possible to least possible IMO it goes Renteria>>Tejada>>>>>>>>ARod>>>>>Bedard>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Santana]

 

Oh, see, I thought we were talking about what would help this team the most....

 

 

 

Typical, "hey this other team has an awesome guy, they'll totally trade him to us for 50 cents on the dollar!!!"

 

Lol. Cause Derrek Lee was a Free Agent and Ramirez was a product of the farm, I forgot. Teams like the Orioles, who aren't going to be competitive next year would never trade a guy approaching free agency coming off a career year to a team that can fill multiple needs. Never happen.

[nilodnayr]

a pitcher will win more games and hence look better.

 

If you say so. When you're trotting a Santana out there instead of Jason Marquis, the offense does not have to score as many runs in order to win.

 

Ahh, I see. So an offense that doesn't have to score as many runs looks better. Makes perfect sense.

 

When you picked up the paper today did you read "Man that Mike Lowell had a real nice win lastnight"?

[muntjack]

a pitcher will win more games and hence look better.

 

If you say so. When you're trotting a Santana out there instead of Jason Marquis, the offense does not have to score as many runs in order to win.

 

Ahh, I see. So an offense that doesn't have to score as many runs looks better. Makes perfect sense.

 

When you picked up the paper today did you read "Man that Mike Lowell had a real nice win lastnight"?

 

Makes as much sense as your claim that "a pitcher will win more games and hence look better. " If his peripherals are the same, he's THE SAME pitcher who wins more games due to the offense. It works both ways.

[nilodnayr]

a pitcher will win more games and hence look better.

 

If you say so. When you're trotting a Santana out there instead of Jason Marquis, the offense does not have to score as many runs in order to win.

 

Ahh, I see. So an offense that doesn't have to score as many runs looks better. Makes perfect sense.

 

When you picked up the paper today did you read "Man that Mike Lowell had a real nice win lastnight"?

 

Makes as much sense as your claim that "a pitcher will win more games and hence look better. " If his peripherals are the same, he's THE SAME pitcher who wins more games due to the offense. It works both ways.

 

A pitcher "wins" a game when he leaves after 5 innings with the lead and his team holds onto the lead. So, if a pitcher gives up 4 runs in 5 innings with offense A scoring only 2 runs as opposed to offense B scoring 14 runs. While the pitcher did exactly the same, he gets a "loss" with offense A and a "win" with offense B. Hence, the pitcher will get a "win" with a better offense and since the "W" stat is applied to pitchers, then yes, he'll look better.

 

Yes, the pitcher is the same, but he gets a W next to his name with a better offense.

 

Offensive players do not get W's next to their names. Thats why it works both ways.

 

As I said before, you didn't see a W next to Lowell's name or in the headlines after the last WS game, did you?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

1. Sign Fukudome for RF/CF

2. Sign Kuroda for 4/5 starter

3. Trade for Tejada

4. Trade for a LOOGY

5. Soto full-time catcher

6. Buy out Kendall and Floyd

7. No thanks to Monroe or Trachsel

8. If Murton is traded, sign a veteran RH bat for the bench (position doesn't matter)

9. Convince Ward to re-up

10. Replace Mike Quade

 

Done.

[CubColtPacer]

1. Sign Fukudome for RF/CF

2. Sign Kuroda for 4/5 starter

3. Trade for Tejada

4. Trade for a LOOGY

5. Soto full-time catcher

6. Buy out Kendall and Floyd

7. No thanks to Monroe or Trachsel

8. If Murton is traded, sign a veteran RH bat for the bench (position doesn't matter)

9. Convince Ward to re-up

10. Replace Mike Quade

 

Done.

 

Sounds good. Only 1 big problem-you just upped the payroll by 30-40 million dollars. Do the Cubs really have that much payroll flexibility?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

1. Sign Fukudome for RF/CF

2. Sign Kuroda for 4/5 starter

3. Trade for Tejada

4. Trade for a LOOGY

5. Soto full-time catcher

6. Buy out Kendall and Floyd

7. No thanks to Monroe or Trachsel

8. If Murton is traded, sign a veteran RH bat for the bench (position doesn't matter)

9. Convince Ward to re-up

10. Replace Mike Quade

 

Done.

 

Sounds good. Only 1 big problem-you just upped the payroll by 30-40 million dollars. Do the Cubs really have that much payroll flexibility?

 

Are you sure? No Floyd, no Prior = $10MM. Barrett is gone, replace by Soto = $4MM. Let's be generous and assume Jones can be moved after eating $2MM. Finally, maybe Ohman gets moved to free up $1.5MM.

 

Then if you sign Fukudome for let's say, $8MM/year, sign Kuroda for let's say, $4MM/year (re: Iwamura and Okajima money), and take on $8MM/year max in new salary with Tejada and your new LOOGY, then it looks like we're talking about a net increase of maybe $10MM max??

[UK1679666180]

You're not factoring in pro-rated salaries of Zambrano, Marquis, Soriano, etc. Any salary that gets freed up as far as expiring contracts is absorbed by pay increases.

[CubColtPacer]

1. Sign Fukudome for RF/CF

2. Sign Kuroda for 4/5 starter

3. Trade for Tejada

4. Trade for a LOOGY

5. Soto full-time catcher

6. Buy out Kendall and Floyd

7. No thanks to Monroe or Trachsel

8. If Murton is traded, sign a veteran RH bat for the bench (position doesn't matter)

9. Convince Ward to re-up

10. Replace Mike Quade

 

Done.

 

Sounds good. Only 1 big problem-you just upped the payroll by 30-40 million dollars. Do the Cubs really have that much payroll flexibility?

 

Are you sure? No Floyd, no Prior = $10MM. Barrett is gone, replace by Soto = $4MM. Let's be generous and assume Jones can be moved after eating $2MM. Finally, maybe Ohman gets moved to free up $1.5MM.

 

Then if you sign Fukudome for let's say, $8MM/year, sign Kuroda for let's say, $4MM/year (re: Iwamura and Okajima money), and take on $8MM/year max in new salary with Tejada and your new LOOGY, then it looks like we're talking about a net increase of maybe $10MM max??

 

The problem is that several of the Cubs starters are also getting raises from last year. As it currently stands, the Cubs are at about the same payroll level as last year, even after losing the salaries of Floyd and the other free agents. Besides, Floyd and Prior together made less than 8 million, not 10. Barrett only made 2.5, not 4.

 

I'm not sure Kuroda will go for that cheap either. I think it will be more likely that he'll get Kei Igawa type money. I'd also be suprised if Fukudome signs for less than 10 million a year.

 

Tejada is supposed to make 13 million next year. I don't see how you're going to get the Orioles to eat that much money to squeeze both Tejada and a LOOGY for only 8 million combined.

[BigbadB]

You're not factoring in pro-rated salaries of Zambrano, Marquis, Soriano, etc. Any salary that gets freed up as far as expiring contracts is absorbed by pay increases.

 

Exactly. And besides that, who in their right mind would take Jacque Jones off the Cubs hands? I'd venture to guess just about every team in baseball has a guy in AAA that could put up the numbers Jacque Jones put up in 2007. A corner outfielder that provides 40 XBH's in a full season of at bats is not exactly a hot commodity in trade discussions.

 

The only thing that might spark interest is that he can play an adequate CF. If he was excellent in CF, that might be different. Jones put up an identical OPS+ in 2007 to Terrence Long in his last full season in baseball, and we all know what happened to him. And Long's contract was very similar to what Jones makes.

 

Nobody will take Henry Blanco's contract, either. The Cubs made commitments to a lot of players last year that basically makes them untradeable as well. You don't give a guy like Soriano a long term deal and then trade him after the first year. You don't re-up a guy like Aramis or Zambrano and then trade them. Marquis is a guy who you might be able to trade, but it's highly doubtful any team will take on the entire contract.

 

Cubs brass made their bed. Now they have to lie in it. The only way they can improve their team in 2008 is by replacing the dead weight. And it's going to take even more money to replace that dead weight. But, it has to be spent at this point. To go into 2008 with the same roster would be comparable to replacing only 2 of the bald tires on your car.

 

Unfortunately, all I really see Cubs brass being able to do to improve this team is to upgrade SS and maybe grab another pitcher.

 

While I'd like to see Fukudome in the Cubs outfield, I see Cubs brass giving Jacque Jones another full season in RF in 2008, with Murton as his platoon mate. I also see them going with Felix Pie in CF and Geovany Soto behind the plate. If the Cubs can get Tejada or Renteria at SS, I think they'll view this as enough of an offensive upgrade that nothing else will really need to be done. I also think the Cubs will go cheap at starting pitcher, and bring back Prior for one more try. If Prior doesn't get the job done, they'll look to Marshall or Hart or Gallagher to fill that 5th roster spot.

 

As much as the fans can see that many upgrades are necessary to improve this club, I really don't think the Cubs management believes all that much improvement will be necessary. And the reason I think this is because they made the playoffs in 2007. They view this as a victory, and that they can get back to the playoffs with the same roster in 2008 without spending mucho dinero. And it's possible they can. It will take some misfortunes in Milwaukee, but anything is possible in MLB.

[haltz]

The only thing that might spark interest is that he can play an adequate CF. If he was excellent in CF, that might be different.

PECOTA thinks (or did before last year, not that I put a lot of stock in their long-term projections) that he'll be a league average hitter in 2008, and at least one person has him playing an excellent CF in 2007. I don't really disagree with your premise, but I figured I'd point that out.

[BigbadB]

The only thing that might spark interest is that he can play an adequate CF. If he was excellent in CF, that might be different.

PECOTA thinks (or did before last year, not that I put a lot of stock in their long-term projections) that he'll be a league average hitter in 2008, and at least one person has him playing an excellent CF in 2007. I don't really disagree with your premise, but I figured I'd point that out.

 

Do you think major league GM's base their decisions on acquiring a player on whether they have good PECOTA projections? Not being fecitious, just asking the question. I know GM's base a lot of their decisions on scouting information, and scouts probably utilize that information much moreso than a GM, but "what have you done lately" has to weigh more heavily, IMO.

 

Jones had a very bad year at the plate. What is worse is that I don't see him improving. His approach at the plate is almost beyond repair. He's off balance and leaning forward when he swings away. It's possible it can be corrected, but if it is, why haven't they corrected it?

[haltz]

Do you think major league GM's base their decisions on acquiring a player on whether they have good PECOTA projections? Not being fecitious, just asking the question.

PECOTA? I'm sure a lot of teams have their own proprietary systems, which isn't news. There are plenty of statistically savvy teams that might see a bit of a bounce-back and good defense for next year. He's owed, what, $5M and that's it?

 

I don't watch the Cubs enough to say whether he looks lost at the plate, and I'm not scout, but he had a similar year in 2004 and it hasn't deterred him from hanging around the 100 OPS+ mark since.

[rawaction]

Do you think major league GM's base their decisions on acquiring a player on whether they have good PECOTA projections? Not being fecitious, just asking the question.

PECOTA? I'm sure a lot of teams have their own proprietary systems, which isn't news. There are plenty of statistically savvy teams that might see a bit of a bounce-back and good defense for next year. He's owed, what, $5M and that's it?

 

I don't watch the Cubs enough to say whether he looks lost at the plate, and I'm not scout, but he had a similar year in 2004 and it hasn't deterred him from hanging around the 100 OPS+ mark since.

 

Jones' 2nd half leads me to believe he can at least be a league average hitter in 2008. The lack of power is disturbing, and I have no idea what to expect in the HR department, though. If the Cubs must trade Pie to get a huge upgrade in RF (would include SS, but none of the available ones are worth trading Pie for), then I'd have no problem with Jones playing out his last year in CF, where he was probably slightly above average defensively. Then turn it over to Colvin/Eric Patterson in 2009.

[BigbadB]

I may be wrong and he may get peddled to a team this offseason, but from my own perspective and based on what I saw of Jones in 2007, I don't see any teams having interest in utilizing a significant part of their offseason budget to acquire a guy that they can likely get close to or equal value from their own farm system. Call it a continuation of correcting the market for mediocre ballplayers if you will.

[CubColtPacer]

I may be wrong and he may get peddled to a team this offseason, but from my own perspective and based on what I saw of Jones in 2007, I don't see any teams having interest in utilizing a significant part of their offseason budget to acquire a guy that they can likely get close to or equal value from their own farm system. Call it a continuation of correcting the market for mediocre ballplayers if you will.

 

That's possible, but I don't think that many teams have that kind of faith in their farm system.

 

There are many GM's out there who will put pretty good value on the fact that Jones hit .332 after the All-Star Break. Jones is easy PR spin for a team who doesn't want to make a big splash in free agency. I can see the press release now: a veteran who's been on several playoff teams, hit .332 after the break, plays all 3 OF positions, and only has 1 year left on his deal. He'll be that guy who gets the casual fans excited for a team who isn't expected to do much in free agency.

 

I can see Jones staying with the team because Hendry will demand value in players in addition to just dumping the salary. If he wants to just get rid of the salary though, that should be somewhat easy to do.

[Abe Frohman]

Some pretty interesting things about Jacque's 2007 season:

 

* He really only had two bad months, May and June. He hit .205/.263/.591 in May and .176/.250/.525 in June. I wonder what happened those two months.

 

* He actually had better numbers against LHP than RHP. For a career, Jacque has been FAR better against RHP, but in 2007 he was .295/.353/.763 against southpaws, while he was .283/.332/.729 against RHP. He did only have 87 plate appearances, but it looks like he made the most of them and was very outside his career norms.

 

* In the clutch, Jacque was great: .358/.427/.906 with RISP and .350/.409/.859 with the bases juiced (22 plate appearances with 13 RBI). He was deadly with a runner on 3rd - .667/.700/1.361.

 

I have no idea if he will be good against LHP like he was in 2007, but the Cubs could use LH bats and guys who can hit lefties in the lineup. He may be needed.

[Keener98]

Some pretty interesting things about Jacque's 2007 season:

 

* He really only had two bad months, May and June. He hit .205/.263/.591 in May and .176/.250/.525 in June. I wonder what happened those two months.

 

* He actually had better numbers against LHP than RHP. For a career, Jacque has been FAR better against RHP, but in 2007 he was .295/.353/.763 against southpaws, while he was .283/.332/.729 against RHP. He did only have 87 plate appearances, but it looks like he made the most of them and was very outside his career norms.

 

* In the clutch, Jacque was great: .358/.427/.906 with RISP and .350/.409/.859 with the bases juiced (22 plate appearances with 13 RBI). He was deadly with a runner on 3rd - .667/.700/1.361.

 

I have no idea if he will be good against LHP like he was in 2007, but the Cubs could use LH bats and guys who can hit lefties in the lineup. He may be needed.

 

So you are going to ignore the fact that he couldnt hit lefties his entire career, and say since he did it this year, he may be needed? I think Id rather look at his 925 previous ab's against lefties instead of the 75 he had this year.

[Abe Frohman]

So you are going to ignore the fact that he couldnt hit lefties his entire career, and say since he did it this year, he may be needed? I think Id rather look at his 925 previous ab's against lefties instead of the 75 he had this year.

 

I am going to ignore nothing. I pointed out that there was a strange shift in JJ's production. I have no idea what the plans are for improving this team in 2008, but one of the big problems the Cubs had was beating LHP, and having LH hitters in the order.

 

If you are asking what I would do, it is acquire another player (at least one) that is preferrably a LH batter who can crush LHP and hit in the clutch. Hopefully that player will hit more than 5 HR, too. If the Cubs acquire this player who will bat in the middle of the order, I wish them luck dealing JJ, or whoever.

 

If JJ can produce over the full season like he did in the better part of 2007, only with more power - I'd take it.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you are going to ignore the fact that he couldnt hit lefties his entire career, and say since he did it this year, he may be needed? I think Id rather look at his 925 previous ab's against lefties instead of the 75 he had this year.

 

I am going to ignore nothing. I pointed out that there was a strange shift in JJ's production. I have no idea what the plans are for improving this team in 2008, but one of the big problems the Cubs had was beating LHP, and having LH hitters in the order.

 

If you are asking what I would do, it is acquire another player (at least one) that is preferrably a LH batter who can crush LHP and hit in the clutch. Hopefully that player will hit more than 5 HR, too. If the Cubs acquire this player who will bat in the middle of the order, I wish them luck dealing JJ, or whoever.

 

If JJ can produce over the full season like he did in the better part of 2007, only with more power - I'd take it.

 

His power numbers went way down...his lefty numbers went way up...why do you assume his power levels are just going to jump back up AND his lefty numbers will stay, contrary to the rest of his career.