What is the Biggest Need?

[USSoccer]

Improve the offense and the pitching is going to look better.

[JeffH]

This team needs more offense first and foremost. It's blatantly obvious.

 

This is true. Although, if I could get a true 3-4-5 hitter somewhere, I'd probably next look for a top starting pitcher.

 

See if you can get Dusty to lean on Krivsky so he'll trade us Jay Bruce, then put together the best Hill-based package you can for Santana.

[Abe Frohman]

I am with muntjack - this team needs another quality starting pitcher more than anything else.

 

That's so not anywhere close to the truth.

 

This team needs more offense first and foremost. It's blatantly obvious.

 

Dude, it's an opinion.

 

The offense will always need to be improved. As the season progressed, it improved a lot (dropping Barrett/Hill, Jones heating up, etc.) and hopefully Derrek Lee will swing a better bat in 08. This offense could be a lot different with Soriano in the middle of the lineup.

 

Zambrano was very inconsistant last year, as our ace. Lilly was a big surprise, and Marquis proved to be a guy you can't really depend on. I think Rich Hill showed some promise, and our #5 spot was unsettled. Who knows if Prior and Marshall can bounce back, but one more #1 or 2 starter could push this team over the edge.

 

Yes, the team needs more offense - but they really need one more starting pitcher, imo.

[inari]

Offense is so obviously the biggest need that I find it hard to believe people are arguing otherwise. The pitching is fine. It could use improvement, but it's fine. The offense on the other hand, it's pretty bad.

[Abe Frohman]

There really isn't any reason why the Cubs can't improve the pitching and offense.

 

IF the Cubs were to get either Alex Rodriguez or Johan Santana, which one do you think would have a bigger impact. That is pretty interesting...

[Guest]

1) Cuban as owner, who wants to prove to Chicago how seriously he wants a title right away

 

2) sign ARod

 

3) Sign Bonds

 

4) Trade the farm (minus Pie) for Santana

 

 

 

RF - Soriano

1B - Lee

SS - ARod

LF - Bonds

3B - Ramirez

2B - DeRosa

CF - Pie

C - Soto

 

 

Santana

Zambrano

Lilly

Marquis

Marshall (or other)

 

 

Never happen in a million years, but that team would win ballgames.

Edited October 25, 2007 by Tim

[Mephistopheles]

you didnt trade hill...

[Guest]

you didnt trade hill...

Assuming he's part of the deal for Santana in my dream world.

[apete6]

1) Cuban as owner, who wants to prove to Chicago how seriously he wants a title right away

 

2) sign ARod

 

3) Sign Bonds

 

4) Trade the farm (minus Pie + Hill) for Santana

 

 

 

RF - Soriano

1B - Lee

SS - ARod

LF - Bonds

3B - Ramirez

2B - DeRosa

CF - Pie

C - Soto

 

 

Santana

Zambrano

Lilly

Marquis

Marshall (or other)

 

 

Never happen in a million years, but that team would win ballgames.

 

If it did, I would have to buy 2 authentic jerseys (Santana and Arod) and thousands of dollars of World Series memoribilia...and my wife would probably divorce me. Although that team would probably be worth it.

[SouthSideRyan]

There really isn't any reason why the Cubs can't improve the pitching and offense.

 

IF the Cubs were to get either Alex Rodriguez or Johan Santana, which one do you think would have a bigger impact. That is pretty interesting...

 

Alex Rodriguez assuming he can still play a competent SS.

[Guest]

you didnt trade hill...

d'oh

 

saw the issue and fixed it. Stupid revision control.

[Guest]

There really isn't any reason why the Cubs can't improve the pitching and offense.

 

IF the Cubs were to get either Alex Rodriguez or Johan Santana, which one do you think would have a bigger impact. That is pretty interesting...

 

It would be ARod and by a wide margin mainly because he's going to play every day as opposed to once every five days.

[nilodnayr]

There really isn't any reason why the Cubs can't improve the pitching and offense.

 

IF the Cubs were to get either Alex Rodriguez or Johan Santana, which one do you think would have a bigger impact. That is pretty interesting...

 

It would be ARod and by a wide margin mainly because he's going to play every day as opposed to once every five days.

 

I wouldn't call it a wide margin. You didn't take into consideration the impact each player would have on a game.

 

Since winning is about scoring more runs than your opponent, lets assign 50% value to runs scored and 50% value to runs allowed.

 

Lets say team defense has 20% to do with allowing runs and pitching has 80%. Therefore multiplying by 50%, defense has 10% impact. Pitching has 40% impact. Out of pitching we have starters and relievers. Lets say the average starter goes 6.5 innings (pitches 72% of the innings). So he has 72%*40%, roughly 29% impact. So, in a 5 man rotation, 1 starting pitcher has about 6% impact on the game.

 

As we stated, runs scored have 50% value. You could divide that by 9 (or 8) and youd have about 6% impact assuming the player plays every day. A little bit more (~1%) added for defense.

 

So, basically a starting position player pretty close to as valuable as a starting pitcher. The position player plays more often, but has a smaller impact on the outcome of the game.

 

Note: this is quick and dirty with assumptions. Theres probably some interesting things you could add with win shares, leverage index, positional value, etc.

 

The main other things to be taken into consideration is who they would be replacing, $, players to give up in a trade.

[frostwyrm]

1) Cuban as owner, who wants to prove to Chicago how seriously he wants a title right away

 

2) sign ARod

 

3) Sign Bonds

 

4) Trade the farm (minus Pie) for Santana

 

 

 

RF - Soriano

1B - Lee

SS - ARod

LF - Bonds

3B - Ramirez

2B - DeRosa

CF - Pie

C - Soto

 

 

Santana

Zambrano

Lilly

Marquis

Marshall (or other)

 

 

Never happen in a million years, but that team would win ballgames.

 

Really doubt it would happen. After the whole roster is filled out you're looking at a humongous payroll with heavy backloading for aging players plus a depleted farm, things which would necessitate even more spending in the future. I'm sure Cuban wants to win but we shouldn't ask him to make us the Yankees of the NL.

[Guest]

1) Cuban as owner, who wants to prove to Chicago how seriously he wants a title right away

 

2) sign ARod

 

3) Sign Bonds

 

4) Trade the farm (minus Pie) for Santana

 

 

 

RF - Soriano

1B - Lee

SS - ARod

LF - Bonds

3B - Ramirez

2B - DeRosa

CF - Pie

C - Soto

 

 

Santana

Zambrano

Lilly

Marquis

Marshall (or other)

 

 

Never happen in a million years, but that team would win ballgames.

 

Really doubt it would happen. After the whole roster is filled out you're looking at a humongous payroll with heavy backloading for aging players plus a depleted farm, things which would necessitate even more spending in the future. I'm sure Cuban wants to win but we shouldn't ask him to make us the Yankees of the NL.

Not really a serious suggestion. Just fun to think about.

[haltz]

Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.

[Guest]

Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.

It's quite possible he'd be that much better than Marquis.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.

 

I forget which one it was, but someone replaced Theriot with A-Rod in one of the lineup simulators and it was 90+ runs difference.

[nilodnayr]

Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.

 

I forget which one it was, but someone replaced Theriot with A-Rod in one of the lineup simulators and it was 90+ runs difference.

 

For the record, that would be equivalent to a 4.32 ERA difference (using haltz's assumptions) Yowzers.

 

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Swap A-Rod (assuming this year's stats) for Theriot average runs per game goes from 5.085 to 5.679

 

worth 300 million?

 

~100 extra runs per year? Yeah, yeah it is.

[nilodnayr]

Ohh and by the way, if you constuct the cubs lineup "optimally" with ARod, 5.93 runs/game (137 runs/season). Which equates to an 6.16 ERA difference.

 

Heres the lineup.

 

DLee

ARod

Soto

ARam

Murton

Sori

Jones

Z

DeRo

[frostwyrm]

Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.

It's quite possible he'd be that much better than Marquis.

It's quite possible Lou and Jim have a nasty fight over whether to replace Marquis via trade in July. Jim will naturally be hesitant because he's the guy who gave Marquis $21M. Lou won't care.

[muntjack]

The additions to the offense will make the pitching look better? Doesn't this work the other way as well?

 

I think we need to differentiate between the performance of the 2007 Cubs offense and current projections of the 2008 lineup. I understand if you all aren't as high on Soto as I am (lol), but can we all agree he will be a big improvement over Barrett/Hill/Bowen/Kendall?

 

We all saw what happened to DLee in the 2nd half, isn't that a better projector than his (possibly still injured) 1st half?

 

The offense stands to improve as is, the rotation does not.

 

 

 

I love the ARod vs. Santana argument because it's really making my point for me. Whether or not ARod > Santana is inconsequential in my scenario, it's whether Renteria/Tejada > Santana, and hopefully we all can agree on that.

 

Again, I'm NOT saying that Santana is realistic (though visions of a sub-2.00 ERA in his first NL go-round are dancing in my head), just illustrating what a #1 could add to this team.

 

How about Erik Bedard? We know Baltimore has needs we can fill (closer/CF). MacPhail is there and we've already established a relationship, Bedard is coming up on free agency and the Orioles aren't close. And we DO have the chips to get this guy, imo. The question is, is he worth Marmol, Marshall/Murton and Pie?

 

221/57 K/BB, 182IP 141H for a 1.09 WHIP (in the AL East)

[haltz]

I forget which one it was, but someone replaced Theriot with A-Rod in one of the lineup simulators and it was 90+ runs difference.

They were 90 runs apart using LWTS last year (-22 to +70). I called it +40 for ARod for my conservative projection of sorts, which is about an average year for him. Also, I don't really trust that lineup tool, but that's neither here nor there in this case.

 

I'd also be pretty scared that his defense would be worse than Theriot's, but like I said I really don't know. Cedeno's probably an in house upgrade anyway.

 

The additions to the offense will make the pitching look better? Doesn't this work the other way as well?

Only if you are concerned with pitcher wins, which you shouldn't be. Saving 60 extra runs or generating 60 extra runs should have about the same effect.

[Tracer Bullet]

Just eyeballing BRef btRuns, and ignoring defense (no clue), ARod is probably 60 runs better than Theriot 2007. So, Santana would need to be something like 2.7 R/9 better than who he replaces over 200 innings to approximate that.

It's quite possible he'd be that much better than Marquis.

 

But isn't Santana replacing Hill in your scenario, not Marquis?

[Brendan]

1) Cuban as owner, who wants to prove to Chicago how seriously he wants a title right away

 

2) sign ARod

 

3) Sign Bonds

 

4) Trade the farm (minus Pie) for Santana

 

 

 

RF - Soriano

1B - Lee

SS - ARod

LF - Bonds

3B - Ramirez

2B - DeRosa

CF - Pie

C - Soto

 

 

Santana

Zambrano

Lilly

Marquis

Prior

 

Never happen in a million years, but that team would win ballgames.

 

since we're dreaming