One Person's Blog

[Backtobanks]

Found this on Foxsports.com:

 

Recent talk out of Pittsburgh has the Pirates potentially trading the face of their franchise, Jason Bay, in order to help replensish a impoverished farm system. Bay is regarded to be the best moveable part not starting in the rotaiton right now, as he's due $13.25 million the next two seasons.

 

The Rumored Asking Price: The papers have people predicting a Bartolo Colon/Mark Teixeira deal. That won’t happen. More likely, an average pitching prospect and a positional player prospect will get it done[/b], though a third guy could be included. Who knows?

 

If this person's blog is reasonably accurate, Marshall plus Patterson (with Fontenot if needed) for Bay?? That would open up trade possibilities of packaging Murton with others for a SS.

[erik316wttn]

I'd do it. Although would they take Murt/Marshall/Fontenot?

[Outshined_One]

One of Gallagher/Marshall/Mateo and Colvin, imo.

[Derwood]

if they want depth, they're gonna want at least 3 prospects, probably 2 of which are major league level

[JeffH]

Would you take Jack Wilson off their hands, if it helped get Bay?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Would you take Jack Wilson off their hands, if it helped get Bay?

 

No, but I'd give them Ryan Theriot to help replace Wilson when they find a sucker/taker for him.

 

Theriot, Gallagher, EPatt

[rawaction]

They can get a lot more than what the Cubs can offer. I'd definitely see if they'd be interested in Marshall, Atkins, and Patterson or a similar deal.

 

If I were the Pirates, I'd see if Jeff Mathis and Ervin Santana were available. It makes a ton of sense for the Pirates to trade Bay. He had a down year, but his previous seasons and contract will be very value to a contending team needing an OF. They can build that team around Laroche, Sanchez, and Nady, who were all better than Bay last year. They can use the money they save to make a trade for a bat to replace Bay's, at a more needed position like 3B (Hank Blalock, Troy Glaus).

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd love to have Bay in RF. I'd make an offer of Marshall, Murton, and another couple of lower level prospects and see if they bite.

[St.Paul Cub]

According to the media here, they had some serious discussions about Bay to the Twins for Matt Garza. Granted it was just rumors, but it came out of Pittsburgh.

 

I'd think that Marshall and Murton with another prospect could probably get it done if they'd be looking at Garza.

[shnsajax]

According to the media here, they had some serious discussions about Bay to the Twins for Matt Garza. Granted it was just rumors, but it came out of Pittsburgh.

 

I'd think that Marshall and Murton with another prospect could probably get it done if they'd be looking at Garza.

 

Why would the Twins be taking on salary with Santana unsigned, and why in the world would they trade Garza with Santana unsigned? Makes no sense.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Found this on Foxsports.com:

 

Recent talk out of Pittsburgh has the Pirates potentially trading the face of their franchise, Jason Bay, in order to help replensish a impoverished farm system. Bay is regarded to be the best moveable part not starting in the rotaiton right now, as he's due $13.25 million the next two seasons.

 

The Rumored Asking Price: The papers have people predicting a Bartolo Colon/Mark Teixeira deal. That won’t happen. More likely, an average pitching prospect and a positional player prospect will get it done[/b], though a third guy could be included. Who knows?

 

If this person's blog is reasonably accurate, Marshall plus Patterson (with Fontenot if needed) for Bay?? That would open up trade possibilities of packaging Murton with others for a SS.

 

The Pirates make 0 Sense to me. Every time they get a potential top player, they go and trade him at his peak. I understand a team wanting to replenish their farm system, but whats the point in doing o if you just get rid of these guys as soon as they get good?

[Sammy Sofa]

Found this on Foxsports.com:

 

Recent talk out of Pittsburgh has the Pirates potentially trading the face of their franchise, Jason Bay, in order to help replensish a impoverished farm system. Bay is regarded to be the best moveable part not starting in the rotaiton right now, as he's due $13.25 million the next two seasons.

 

The Rumored Asking Price: The papers have people predicting a Bartolo Colon/Mark Teixeira deal. That won’t happen. More likely, an average pitching prospect and a positional player prospect will get it done[/b], though a third guy could be included. Who knows?

 

If this person's blog is reasonably accurate, Marshall plus Patterson (with Fontenot if needed) for Bay?? That would open up trade possibilities of packaging Murton with others for a SS.

 

The Pirates make 0 Sense to me. Every time they get a potential top player, they go and trade him at his peak. I understand a team wanting to replenish their farm system, but whats the point in doing o if you just get rid of these guys as soon as they get good?

 

What good is he otherwise? They're not really close to competing at all...what's the point of having the one big name when he can help build your team with multiple players?

[BigbadB]

The Pirates have got to improve the won/loss record of their minor leagues. Moving Bay will help them do that. :D

[Pinktermite]

I guess Bay is an upgrade depending on what we give up. But he's had three declining years in a row, including his declining walks rate. I think the Cubs can do better with what they have. Or find something else.

[Guest]

I would think Murton would be the centerpiece of a deal just because there would be no place for him if we acquired Bay.

[Outshined_One]

Bay's numbers over the past three years (2005, 2006, 2007)...

 

AVG: .306, .286, .247

OBP: .402, .396, .327

SLG: .559, .532, .418

IsoD: .096, .110, .080

IsoP: .253, .246, .171

HR: 32, 35, 21

K: 142, 156, 141

BB: 95, 102, 59

RC: 143, 126, 78

RC/27: 8.7, 7.8, 5.0

OPS+: 148, 136, 92

 

Bay turns 30 next season. While his three years numbers suggest a decline, his 2005 was his best season by far while 2006 appears more to be around his career averages. The critical question with Bay is whether or not his 2007 was a fluke. What gives me pause is the fact that all of his numbers in 2007 were down, from patience to power. That could be indicative of any number of things, correctable or otherwise.

 

However, this would be a perfect buy low opportunity for Hendry. Bay's a talented young player who could potentially be had for relatively cheap. Moreover, even if Bay doesn't play up to his 2005/2006 numbers, he's likely to outproduce any one of Murton, Floyd, or Jones.

[rawaction]

If Murton is the centerpiece, there is no deal. The Pirates wouldn't be getting rid of Bay because they can't afford him. They would be getting rid of him to improve the team overall. The best way to do that is to get better in the positions they are well below average like 3B, C, and SP. If Murton is included in the deal, fine, but there is no benefit to the Pirates trading Bay unless they can improve other areas of the team significantly. It's much easier to replace Bay's production by signing a FA OF than a 3B, C or SP. Those are premium positions which they cannot compete with larger spending teams for.

[davearm]

Well who in the Cubs' current-day inventory equates to Bobby Hill and Jose Hernandez?

[davearm]

Bay's numbers over the past three years (2005, 2006, 2007)...

 

AVG: .306, .286, .247

OBP: .402, .396, .327

SLG: .559, .532, .418

IsoD: .096, .110, .080

IsoP: .253, .246, .171

HR: 32, 35, 21

K: 142, 156, 141

BB: 95, 102, 59

RC: 143, 126, 78

RC/27: 8.7, 7.8, 5.0

OPS+: 148, 136, 92

 

Bay turns 30 next season. While his three years numbers suggest a decline, his 2005 was his best season by far while 2006 appears more to be around his career averages. The critical question with Bay is whether or not his 2007 was a fluke. What gives me pause is the fact that all of his numbers in 2007 were down, from patience to power. That could be indicative of any number of things, correctable or otherwise.

 

However, this would be a perfect buy low opportunity for Hendry. Bay's a talented young player who could potentially be had for relatively cheap. Moreover, even if Bay doesn't play up to his 2005/2006 numbers, he's likely to outproduce any one of Murton, Floyd, or Jones.

I seem to recall reading someplace that Bay was fighting off a nagging injury all year in 2007. Foot? Ankle? Something like that IIRC.

[Guest]

If Murton is the centerpiece, there is no deal. The Pirates wouldn't be getting rid of Bay because they can't afford him. They would be getting rid of him to improve the team overall. The best way to do that is to get better in the positions they are well below average like 3B, C, and SP. If Murton is included in the deal, fine, but there is no benefit to the Pirates trading Bay unless they can improve other areas of the team significantly. It's much easier to replace Bay's production by signing a FA OF than a 3B, C or SP. Those are premium positions which they cannot compete with larger spending teams for.

 

Wasn't the whole premise of this thread that they wanted to replenish their minors? The Pirates aren't trying to win next year, they are trying to become the Brewers of three years ago (at least according to the blog). Bay had a very high BABIP in 2005.

[rawaction]

If Murton is the centerpiece, there is no deal. The Pirates wouldn't be getting rid of Bay because they can't afford him. They would be getting rid of him to improve the team overall. The best way to do that is to get better in the positions they are well below average like 3B, C, and SP. If Murton is included in the deal, fine, but there is no benefit to the Pirates trading Bay unless they can improve other areas of the team significantly. It's much easier to replace Bay's production by signing a FA OF than a 3B, C or SP. Those are premium positions which they cannot compete with larger spending teams for.

 

Wasn't the whole premise of this thread that they wanted to replenish their minors? The Pirates aren't trying to win next year, they are trying to become the Brewers of three years ago (at least according to the blog). Bay had a very high BABIP in 2005.

 

I understand what the blog is saying, I just don't think it makes much sense. Granted, that's what the thread was about, but if that's the case, Murton makes no sense either way.

 

It makes no sense for the Pirates to trade Bay in order to replenish their system. They aren't gonna get superstar prospect for him after a down year. What they could get though are players 2-3 years away from arbitration with the potential to help them compete in the weak NL Central. If they aren't gonna get system changing prospects (the Brewers group of Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hardy, type of guys), then they might as well keep Bay, continue to finish in the bottom of the league and just draft like they want to get better. Their farm system would look very different if they wouldn't shy away from the top guys because of signability issues.

[Guest]

I think they could get second grade prospects like weeks, braun and hardy. None of those three was thought of as can't miss (Though weeks has been consistently over-rated). The Pirates might do well to wait until July though.

[rawaction]

I think they could get second grade prospects like weeks, braun and hardy. None of those three was thought of as can't miss (Though weeks has been consistently over-rated). The Pirates might do well to wait until July though.

 

Maybe on Hardy, but Braun was the 5th pick in 2005. Weeks was the #2 pick in 03. Both were very highly regarded from the beginning.

[Guest]

I think they could get second grade prospects like weeks, braun and hardy. None of those three was thought of as can't miss (Though weeks has been consistently over-rated). The Pirates might do well to wait until July though.

 

Maybe on Hardy, but Braun was the 5th pick in 2005. Weeks was the #2 pick in 03. Both were very highly regarded from the beginning.

 

you aren't seriously using where they were picked **luis montanez** are you? I guess I just never saw those two in the class of alex gordon or phil hughes. I could see the Pirates getting someone of that caliber perhaps at AA or lower.

[davearm]

I think they could get second grade prospects like weeks, braun and hardy. None of those three was thought of as can't miss (Though weeks has been consistently over-rated). The Pirates might do well to wait until July though.

I can understand the Pirates wanting to get younger and all, but seven year olds?