Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Pre Series Discussion Thread

[David]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

 

Like I said, people always look for reasons why a certain team may be an exception. I look at that lineup and pitching staff, and I don't see a 90 win team. I look at their overall numbers, I don't see a 90 win team. Then I see the run differential, and I sure as hell don't see a 90 win team.

 

Pythag wins has proven to be a pretty good metric time and again. Does anyone really think the D'Backs would win 90 games if they played 162 games again? Or, better yet, does anyone think they'll win 90 games next year if they trot out that same team? Maybe if the young players continue to make strides..but certainly not at the level they performed at this year.

[Vinestal]

The DBacks just aren't that good.

 

Neither were the Marlins

[Mizzou]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

And the Cubs lost 16 games by 5 or more runs while winning by 5 or more 22 times. They scored 10+ 9 times and gave up 10+ 11 times.

 

So in games where a team won or lost by 5 or more runs, the Cubs were 22-16 and the DBacks were 18-18. In games where a team put up 10 or more runs, the Cubs were 9-11 and the Brewers were 8-12.

 

Sorry, but I'm not seeing your point here.

[Warren Brusstar]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

How many months of premium are you willing to bet on that?

None. I'm not really interested in making bets this postseason, I just want to enjoy the ride.

 

After looking at the Diamondbacks roster and the pitching matchups, how can you not see a sweep? The only game that we might not win is the first one, just because Webb is so good. But with the way Sori, Lee, and Ramirez are hitting, I think we'll take that one too. We should easily win game two with Lilly going against Davis. And Livan Hernandez just isn't a good pitcher at all, so if Rich has his curveball going on Saturday, that should be an easy victory. I could be wrong, maybe it will take four games to win the series, but I think we're going to sweep. The DBacks just aren't that good.

 

Can I see it? Sure. But the sample size is so small that this thing could go either way pretty easily.

 

In any event, I'm glad we're playing the D'backs and not the Phillies.

[Mizzou]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

How many months of premium are you willing to bet on that?

None. I'm not really interested in making bets this postseason, I just want to enjoy the ride.

 

After looking at the Diamondbacks roster and the pitching matchups, how can you not see a sweep? The only game that we might not win is the first one, just because Webb is so good. But with the way Sori, Lee, and Ramirez are hitting, I think we'll take that one too. We should easily win game two with Lilly going against Davis. And Livan Hernandez just isn't a good pitcher at all, so if Rich has his curveball going on Saturday, that should be an easy victory. I could be wrong, maybe it will take four games to win the series, but I think we're going to sweep. The DBacks just aren't that good.

 

Sori, Lee and Ramirez are going to ground out a lot against Webb. They can't really hurt him consistantly. The only way we win game 1 is if we see good Z and we can get a couple of timely grounders that find holes.

I agree that Z is going to have to pitch a good game if we're going to win, but I think he will. I don't think that we're going to have to rely on luck to get some runs against Webb though. We have a good offense, and we're usually better against good pitchers than bad ones anyways. But the whole game comes down to whether Zambrano is on his game or not.

[Derwood]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

 

Like I said, people always look for reasons why a certain team may be an exception. I look at that lineup and pitching staff, and I don't see a 90 win team. I look at their overall numbers, I don't see a 90 win team. Then I see the run differential, and I sure as hell don't see a 90 win team.

 

Pythag wins has proven to be a pretty good metric time and again. Does anyone really think the D'Backs would win 90 games if they played 162 games again? Or, better yet, does anyone think they'll win 90 games next year if they trot out that same team? Maybe if the young players continue to make strides..but certainly not at the level they performed at this year.

 

another stat (god forbid I "defend" them):

 

1-run games: 32-19, but only a +13 run differential

blowouts (5+ runs): 20-26, with a -62 run differential

 

in other words, their bullpen really helped them in 1-run games, as they won way more than they should have given the differential. there's something to be said about a bullpen that good, however

[David]

The DBacks just aren't that good.

 

Neither were the Marlins

 

The Marlins were the hottest team in baseball (IIRC) from May on, or so. (Sort of like this year's Cubs, except it was June and the Yankees were hotter)....

 

 

They had 3 pitchers capable of being absolutely dominant in Beckett, Willis and Penny. Pavano was solid, as well.

 

The only reason the Cubs had home field in that series was because the Marlins were the wild card. They were a 91 win team and only overachieved slightly based on Pythag.

 

I'm not saying they were necessarily a better team than the Cubs were at that point in the year, but they were much better than this D'Backs team, IMO.

[E.J.]

Cubs Starting Lineup for game 1 (scroll down to "scorecard" section):

 

Soriano LF

Theriot SS

Lee 1b

Floyd RF

Aram 3b

DeRosa 2b

Jones CF

Kendall/Soto C

Zambrano P

 

It says Lou hasn't figured out who's starting catcher for the game. It better freaking be Soto.

 

Piniella said he will chose between the experienced Jason Kendall or rookie Geovany Soto, who was MVP of the Pacific Coast League.

 

"It depends on the team we play and the speed of the team," Piniella said. "I think Soto has caught most of our starters now."

 

 

Since Arizona has a bunch of speed, I'm guessing Soto does get the start.

Edited September 30, 2007 by E.J.

[Warren Brusstar]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

 

Like I said, people always look for reasons why a certain team may be an exception. I look at that lineup and pitching staff, and I don't see a 90 win team. I look at their overall numbers, I don't see a 90 win team. Then I see the run differential, and I sure as hell don't see a 90 win team.

 

Pythag wins has proven to be a pretty good metric time and again. Does anyone really think the D'Backs would win 90 games if they played 162 games again? Or, better yet, does anyone think they'll win 90 games next year if they trot out that same team? Maybe if the young players continue to make strides..but certainly not at the level they performed at this year.

 

another stat (god forbid I "defend" them):

 

1-run games: 32-19, but only a +13 run differential

blowouts (5+ runs): 20-26, with a -62 run differential

 

in other words, their bullpen really helped them in 1-run games, as they won way more than they should have given the differential. there's something to be said about a bullpen that good, however

 

By definition, a team that is 13 games over .500 in one games is going to have a +13 run differential in those games. So I'm not sure exactly what your point is.

[David]

 

another stat (god forbid I "defend" them):

 

1-run games: 32-19, but only a +13 run differential

blowouts (5+ runs): 20-26, with a -62 run differential

 

in other words, their bullpen really helped them in 1-run games, as they won way more than they should have given the differential. there's something to be said about a bullpen that good, however

 

Valid argument. Luckily, at least we can shorten the game just as well as they can, as our relief has been absolutely sick, short of Dempster. Marmol, Wood, and Howry.. wow...

 

EDIT - I'm dumb, too. The dominant bullpen part is the point I was referring to. Didn't really even give much thought to the 13 games over .500 in one run games = +13 run differential stat. Hah

Edited September 30, 2007 by David

[UMFan83]

These position by position comparisons mean nothing, but I think they are fun to make anyways.

 

1B: Lee over Jackson

2B: DeRosa over Ojeda

SS: Drew over Theriot

3B: Ramirez over Reynolds

LF: Soriano over Byrnes

CF: Young over Jones

RF: Floyd/Murton over Upton

C: Soto push Snyder (I know I know, but with such a small sample size its really hard to judge)

 

SP: Webb over Zambrano

SP: Lilly over Davis

SP: Hill over Hernandez

SP: Owings over Marquis

 

7th inning guy: Marmol over Pena

8th inning guy: Lyon over Howry

9th inning guy: Valverde over Dempster

 

Bench:

Ward

Kendall

Fontenot

Murton/Floyd

Cedeno

Pie

 

over

 

Montero

Clark

Quentin

Cirillo

Salazar

????

 

My prediction: Cubs in 4

[Warren Brusstar]

Cubs Starting Lineup for game 1 (scroll down to "scorecard" section):

 

Soriano LF

Theriot SS

Lee 1b

Floyd RF

Aram 3b

DeRosa 2b

Jones CF

Kendall/Soto C

Zambrano P

 

It says Lou hasn't figured out who's starting catcher for the game. It better freaking be Soto.

 

Piniella said he will chose between the experienced Jason Kendall or rookie Geovany Soto, who was MVP of the Pacific Coast League.

 

"It depends on the team we play and the speed of the team," Piniella said. "I think Soto has caught most of our starters now."

 

 

Since Arizona has a bunch of speed, I'm guessing Soto does get the start.

 

There's more there too. Basically, Lou said that Murton will play RF and Jones CF v. Davis in Game 2.

[Derwood]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

 

Like I said, people always look for reasons why a certain team may be an exception. I look at that lineup and pitching staff, and I don't see a 90 win team. I look at their overall numbers, I don't see a 90 win team. Then I see the run differential, and I sure as hell don't see a 90 win team.

 

Pythag wins has proven to be a pretty good metric time and again. Does anyone really think the D'Backs would win 90 games if they played 162 games again? Or, better yet, does anyone think they'll win 90 games next year if they trot out that same team? Maybe if the young players continue to make strides..but certainly not at the level they performed at this year.

 

another stat (god forbid I "defend" them):

 

1-run games: 32-19, but only a +13 run differential

blowouts (5+ runs): 20-26, with a -62 run differential

 

in other words, their bullpen really helped them in 1-run games, as they won way more than they should have given the differential. there's something to be said about a bullpen that good, however

 

By definition, a team that is 13 games over .500 in one games is going to have a +13 run differential in those games. So I'm not sure exactly what your point is.

 

 

ha ha ha, you're right. i'm dumb

 

what we want, however, is a blow out.

 

ARZ in blowouts: 20-26

CHC in blowouts: 27-17

[Roast]

I'm supremely confident going into this series. The first game scares me a bit, but if I'm not mistaken, doesn't Z usually pitch really well at Ari? I think one of his 8th inning no-hit bids was there a few years ago. Plus, while Webb is an absolute stud, we have shown that we can beat him in the past. And right now our offense seems to be firing on all cylinders.

 

The way I look at it; if we can take game 1, we sweep. If not, I think we win it in 4.

 

Regardless, I just REALLY REALLY hope that we win this thing at Wrigley. God that would be so much damn fun.

 

Also, poking about baseball reference.com, they've got some interesting stuff as far as "days of rest" goes. Here is how Big Z does on different days of rest between starts

 

 I Split          G   GS  GF  W   L   S   CG SHO   IP     ERA    H    R   ER   HR  BB  IBB  SO  HBP
+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+
  0 Days          4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0    5     0.00    1    0    0   0    2   0    5   1 
  1 Day           4   0   0   1   0   0   0   0    1.2   0.00    1    0    0   0    4   0    1   0 
  2 Days          6   1   1   0   1   0   0   0    9.2   7.45   17   13    8   0   11   1    4   1 
  3 Days          3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0    8.1   5.40    9    5    5   1    3   1    3   1 
  4 Days        100  99   0  49  25   0   7   2  671.1   2.65  493  230  198  48  298  15  593  33 
  5 Days         60  59   0  22  21   0   0   0  365.2   4.70  362  205  191  35  166   9  319  21 
  6+ Days        24  20   1  10   7   0   0   0  131.2   3.42  103   53   50  14   64   3  117   9 

 

 

Oh, and apparently i'm wrong. Z is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA at chase field in 24IP

[David]

Oh, and apparently i'm wrong. Z is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA at chase field in 24IP

 

That ERA is probably skewed pretty heavily by that terrible start he had there on opening day a couple years ago.

[Roast]

Oh, and apparently i'm wrong. Z is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA at chase field in 24IP

 

That ERA is probably skewed pretty heavily by that terrible start he had there on opening day a couple years ago.

 

Oh, thats true

i'm gonna shmooze around baseball-reference for a while and see what he did in other starts. God that site is awesome.

[imb]

Am I the only one that doesn't care that they're a 90 win team? Big deal. Do you really think that our team, as currently constructed, wouldnt win 90 games if we started over? We would.

[killthegoat06]

These position by position comparisons mean nothing, but I think they are fun to make anyways.

 

1B: Lee over Jackson

2B: DeRosa over Ojeda

SS: Drew over Theriot

3B: Ramirez over Reynolds

LF: Soriano over Byrnes

CF: Young over Jones

RF: Floyd/Murton over Upton

C: Soto push Snyder (I know I know, but with such a small sample size its really hard to judge)

 

SP: Webb over Zambrano

SP: Lilly over Davis

SP: Hill over Hernandez

SP: Owings over Marquis

 

7th inning guy: Marmol over Pena

8th inning guy: Lyon over Howry

9th inning guy: Valverde over Dempster

 

Bench:

Ward

Kendall

Fontenot

Murton/Floyd

Cedeno

Pie

 

over

 

Montero

Clark

Quentin

Cirillo

Salazar

????

 

My prediction: Cubs in 4

 

You forgot Monroe for the bench. One of Fontenot/Cedeno/Pie won't make the roster.

[Chris24Young]

Don't think Ojeda is an easy out. He has just about made up for Hudson, he's hitting .330 this month, and his glove is almost as good. (no joke)

 

I think Salazar will start in RF for game 1, then Upton for 2, and maybe 3.

[Roast]

Oh, and apparently i'm wrong. Z is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA at chase field in 24IP

 

That ERA is probably skewed pretty heavily by that terrible start he had there on opening day a couple years ago.

 

Oh, thats true

i'm gonna shmooze around baseball-reference for a while and see what he did in other starts. God that site is awesome.

 

Just looked, and yeah, that's definitely the case. he had a 14 point era in that game.

[UMFan83]

Don't think Ojeda is an easy out. He has just about made up for Hudson, he's hitting .330 this month, and his glove is almost as good. (no joke)

 

I think Salazar will start in RF for game 1, then Upton for 2, and maybe 3.

 

We just don't think highly of him because he could barely crack our lineup for 3 seasons, and he was cast off by at least one other team before finding a spot in your lineup.

 

Chris24Young, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts about this series. Obviously we are all mentally thinking the Cubs are better. I'm sure you are thinking the opposite. On DBacks boards, they are probably saying stuff like 'they only won 85 games...they barely won the central...they had a shot to lock things up really early and got swept by the marlins....their closer is awful....other than the big 3, they have an over the hill former slugger, a of that was benched for 2 months and almost traded, a catcher who cant throw out runners and hits .240, another catcher that was in AAA 3 weeks ago, a SS with a .670 OPS....etc,etc.etc.

[killthegoat06]

Cubs in 4. Please don't let me down Cubs. I wanna hear Ron cheer while watching Wrigley go crazy. :lol:

[Roast]

Wow. Here are some stats to back up what we already know. When Z is good...god is he good. When he is bad....well...

 

 I Split          G   GS  GF  W   L   S   CG SHO   IP     ERA    H    R   ER   HR  BB  IBB  SO  HBP
+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+
  in Wins        82  81   0  82   0   0   5   2  583.2   1.62  379  120  105  29  228   5  501  26 
  in Losses      55  54   0   0  55   0   2   0  306.2   6.63  341  252  226  35  168  15  246  25 
  in No Dec.     64  45   4   0   0   0   0   0  303     3.59  266  134  121  34  152   9  295  15

[David]

Don't think Ojeda is an easy out. He has just about made up for Hudson, he's hitting .330 this month, and his glove is almost as good. (no joke)

 

I think Salazar will start in RF for game 1, then Upton for 2, and maybe 3.

 

Augie Ojeda? Are you serious?

 

He's terrible. A fluke month doesn't change anything. I hope the D'Backs use him early and often.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

another stat (god forbid I "defend" them):

 

1-run games: 32-19, but only a +13 run differential

blowouts (5+ runs): 20-26, with a -62 run differential

 

in other words, their bullpen really helped them in 1-run games, as they won way more than they should have given the differential. there's something to be said about a bullpen that good, however

 

The bullpen might have something to do with a small amount of it, mostly that is just luck. A good bullpen is just as likely to preserve a two-run win as it is a one-run win, and a bad bullpen can turn a two-run win into a one-run win. Looking at games that were within one run at any point from the 7th on might be a better measure than just games that finished one-run apart.

 

That said, being the better team, which I firmly believe the Cubs are, has very little to do with who wins a five-game series. Just pray the coin comes up tails.