Nice article on Murton

[Keener98]

I am all for patience, but many times the best pitch you get is the first one--the get me over fastball. Matt seems to tatoo this ball, but struggle when he goes deep in the count.y

 

Hey you have to be careful going deep into the county, it could be dangerous depending on where you are lol.

[Fred Hornkohl]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

It's meaningless because all it tells you is that that player has happened to have runners on base when he's gotten his hits. On top of that, rarely do you ever have enough of a sample size with RISP stats to conclude anything meaningful.

 

When the guy has a drop of more the 200 OPS points with RISP, this is certainly worth taking a closer look at, rather than the ostrich approach you seem to advocate. One possible answer, especially in the case of a guy like Murton, is to move him up to the #2 slot, where there will be less pressure on him to drive in runs.

[Peoriaman]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

It's meaningless because all it tells you is that that player has happened to have runners on base when he's gotten his hits. On top of that, rarely do you ever have enough of a sample size with RISP stats to conclude anything meaningful.

 

 

well, we disagree. And 3 years of Murton's stats tell me something. Hopefully, he turns it around.

[Peoriaman]

I am all for patience, but many times the best pitch you get is the first one--the get me over fastball. Matt seems to tatoo this ball, but struggle when he goes deep in the count.y

 

Hey you have to be careful going deep into the county, it could be dangerous depending on where you are lol.

 

 

Lock your doors! :)

[Keener98]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

It's meaningless because all it tells you is that that player has happened to have runners on base when he's gotten his hits. On top of that, rarely do you ever have enough of a sample size with RISP stats to conclude anything meaningful.

 

When the guy has a drop of more the 200 OPS points with RISP, this is certainly worth taking a closer look at, rather than the ostrich approach you seem to advocate. One possible answer, especially in the case of a guy like Murton, is to move him up to the #2 slot, where there will be less pressure on him to drive in runs.

 

People here have been advocating Murton for the 2 slot for over 2 years now, and for some reason, our managers just wont put him there and let him play for an extended amount of time. I really wonder if its because he isnt a "bunter" which we all know, alot of old school managers like in the 2 spot. However, Lous put Jones and Floyd there this year so that goes against that as well.

[Magnetic Curses]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

it's meaningless because, as a general rule, a player's BA w/risp naturally gravitates towards his total ba over the course of his career.

 

i like guys who hit well with runners on base, too. but those same guys are those that hit well in any situation: close and late, blowouts early, full moon, saturnalia, fourth of july, etc.

 

murton's career ops w/risp is below his career ops, but not ridiculously below. given enough pa's that number will come up and run consistent with his career averages.

[UK1679666180]

 

Agreed. Murton should be getting the PT because he is doing well, just like Floyd got the PT deservedly when he was doing better than Murton in the first half of the season.

 

Murton's nobody on and runners on situation just keeps getting stranger and stranger.

 

Here are his career numbers:

Nobody on (464 AB's): .330/.385/.526

Runners on (321 AB's): .246/.335/.346

 

Now, it's still only 785 at-bats, and it still has plenty of time to turn around. 230 points is still an absolutely massive difference for that number of at-bats. Maybe he is too patient with runners on? (his walk rate and strikeout rate on his career are both up with runners on, while his BA and power are way down. That suggests too much patience in those situations).

 

Like I've said before, that still doesn't mean that you don't start Murton. Even if you believe these numbers won't turn around, that just means you have to put him in a spot in the batting order that will come up the most times without runners on.

 

You can't put him in a spot in the order to hide him from hitting with runners on, it's not practical now.

 

Soriano will likely always leadoff and Murton has been one the best hitters over the past two months, I'd trust Murton up with RISP right now over everyone except prob. Lee and Ramirez right now. Next year, I don't care about at this time.

 

You're using career stats to try and justify moves over the next 30 days, if he only stays hot for the next 10 days and he's in a position to produce, his impact for those 10 days will matter more than any other possible managerial move.

[Peoriaman]

If (and that is a big if) Murton struggles deep in counts, than #2 may not be his best spot. Most managers want #2 to take a lot of pitches.

[Peoriaman]

 

Agreed. Murton should be getting the PT because he is doing well, just like Floyd got the PT deservedly when he was doing better than Murton in the first half of the season.

 

Murton's nobody on and runners on situation just keeps getting stranger and stranger.

 

Here are his career numbers:

Nobody on (464 AB's): .330/.385/.526

Runners on (321 AB's): .246/.335/.346

 

Now, it's still only 785 at-bats, and it still has plenty of time to turn around. 230 points is still an absolutely massive difference for that number of at-bats. Maybe he is too patient with runners on? (his walk rate and strikeout rate on his career are both up with runners on, while his BA and power are way down. That suggests too much patience in those situations).

 

Like I've said before, that still doesn't mean that you don't start Murton. Even if you believe these numbers won't turn around, that just means you have to put him in a spot in the batting order that will come up the most times without runners on.

 

You can't put him in a spot in the order to hide him from hitting with runners on, it's not practical now.

 

Soriano will likely always leadoff and Murton has been one the best hitters over the past two months, I'd trust Murton up with RISP right now over everyone except prob. Lee and Ramirez right now. Next year, I don't care about at this time.

 

You're using career stats to try and justify moves over the next 30 days, if he only stays hot for the next 10 days and he's in a position to produce, his impact for those 10 days will matter more than any other possible managerial move.

 

 

agree.

[Peoriaman]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

it's meaningless because, as a general rule, a player's BA w/risp naturally gravitates towards his total ba over the course of his career.

 

i like guys who hit well with runners on base, too. but those same guys are those that hit well in any situation: close and late, blowouts early, full moon, saturnalia, fourth of july, etc.

 

murton's career ops w/risp is below his career ops, but not ridiculously below. given enough pa's that number will come up and run consistent with his career averages.

 

 

define "ridiculous". The numbers are very significant, both career and this year.

[Fred Hornkohl]

If (and that is a big if) Murton struggles deep in counts, than #2 may not be his best spot. Most managers want #2 to take a lot of pitches.

 

When a guy has a .372 OBP.... well.... he ain't strugglin' much !!

[Peoriaman]

If (and that is a big if) Murton struggles deep in counts, than #2 may not be his best spot. Most managers want #2 to take a lot of pitches.

 

When a guy has a .372 OBP.... well.... he ain't strugglin' much !!

 

 

Which is the reason I want him to play!

[Keener98]

If (and that is a big if) Murton struggles deep in counts, than #2 may not be his best spot. Most managers want #2 to take a lot of pitches.

 

When a guy has a .372 OBP.... well.... he ain't strugglin' much !!

 

Yea Murtons obp over his entire Major and Minor league career, goes against him struggling deep in counts.

[Magnetic Curses]

 

 

PA's were essentially the same difference.

 

in this instance, yes. floyd and murton have virtually the same isod. but when comparing players with much different isods, pa 's work better. i prefer to use them in every circumstance, ab's are often used to mean pa's, but that's not what they are.

[Peoriaman]

If (and that is a big if) Murton struggles deep in counts, than #2 may not be his best spot. Most managers want #2 to take a lot of pitches.

 

When a guy has a .372 OBP.... well.... he ain't strugglin' much !!

 

Yea Murtons obp over his entire Major and Minor league career, goes against him struggling deep in counts.

 

 

I would agree, but I was responding to a poster earlier who thought MAYBE he doesn't HIT as well when being patient as opposed to swinging at the first pitch. He was giving a theory on why his BA with RISP was so low.

[David]

I think he just means that Murton's biggest strength is working counts. He's one of the last guys you should worry about working deep into a count.

[Peoriaman]

 

 

PA's were essentially the same difference.

 

in this instance, yes. floyd and murton have virtually the same isod. but when comparing players with much different isods, pa 's work better. i prefer to use them in every circumstance, ab's are often used to mean pa's, but that's not what they are.

 

 

That I know, but when I saw walks were essentially the same, I didn't want to take the time to look them up. :)

[CubColtPacer]

I think he just means that Murton's biggest strength is working counts. He's one of the last guys you should worry about working deep into a count.

 

Yes, that's what I meant. Murton is quite good at working counts and hitting deep in counts. The career stats show that very clearly, in fact typically the deeper into a count he gets the better of a hitter he is. I'm very much in favor of him working the count.

 

When I said I thought he might be too patient with runners on, it's more of the fact that he would take strikes that he would normally drive for base hits with nobody on. That puts him behind in the count, and anybody gets worse when they are behind in the count. That would explain the higher walks and higher strikeouts (higher walks because the pitcher nibbles and Murton has a good eye), and lower BA and power (because with 2 strikes the pitcher isn't going to throw him a good pitch most of the time).

[Magnetic Curses]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

it's meaningless because, as a general rule, a player's BA w/risp naturally gravitates towards his total ba over the course of his career.

 

i like guys who hit well with runners on base, too. but those same guys are those that hit well in any situation: close and late, blowouts early, full moon, saturnalia, fourth of july, etc.

 

murton's career ops w/risp is below his career ops, but not ridiculously below. given enough pa's that number will come up and run consistent with his career averages.

 

 

define "ridiculous". The numbers are very significant, both career and this year.

 

no, they're not, considering the relatively short career that murton has had, 661 total pas. not even accounting for his sparse use this season and his inconsitent deployment in the lineup.

 

.277/.374/.384

 

to

 

.303/.370/.462

 

not very significant at all. his numbers are down this season, but that can be attributed to his schizophrenic utililization--and that usually means that they'll be up next season, or the season after that.--given proper time and pa's.

[CubColtPacer]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

it's meaningless because, as a general rule, a player's BA w/risp naturally gravitates towards his total ba over the course of his career.

 

i like guys who hit well with runners on base, too. but those same guys are those that hit well in any situation: close and late, blowouts early, full moon, saturnalia, fourth of july, etc.

 

murton's career ops w/risp is below his career ops, but not ridiculously below. given enough pa's that number will come up and run consistent with his career averages.

 

 

define "ridiculous". The numbers are very significant, both career and this year.

 

no, they're not, considering the relatively short career that murton has had, 661 total pas.

 

.277/.374/.384

 

to

 

.303/.370/.462

 

not very significant at all. his numbers are down this season, but that usually means that they'll be up next season, or the season after that.

 

Where are you getting those career numbers with RISP? Here is what I'm looking at:

 

Murton's career

Overall: .296/.364/.452

Nobody on: .330/.385/.526

Runners On: .246/.335/.346

RISP: .257/.354/.359

RISP/2outs: .247/.336/.320

 

So Murton's overall numbers and his numbers with RISP are about 100 points apart. The difference between nobody on and runners on is 230 points.

[Magnetic Curses]

 

 

PA's were essentially the same difference.

 

in this instance, yes. floyd and murton have virtually the same isod. but when comparing players with much different isods, pa 's work better. i prefer to use them in every circumstance, ab's are often used to mean pa's, but that's not what they are.

 

 

That I know, but when I saw walks were essentially the same, I didn't want to take the time to look them up. :)

 

right on. i know what you mean.

[Magnetic Curses]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

it's meaningless because, as a general rule, a player's BA w/risp naturally gravitates towards his total ba over the course of his career.

 

i like guys who hit well with runners on base, too. but those same guys are those that hit well in any situation: close and late, blowouts early, full moon, saturnalia, fourth of july, etc.

 

murton's career ops w/risp is below his career ops, but not ridiculously below. given enough pa's that number will come up and run consistent with his career averages.

 

 

define "ridiculous". The numbers are very significant, both career and this year.

 

no, they're not, considering the relatively short career that murton has had, 661 total pas.

 

.277/.374/.384

 

to

 

.303/.370/.462

 

not very significant at all. his numbers are down this season, but that usually means that they'll be up next season, or the season after that.

 

Where are you getting those career numbers with RISP? Here is what I'm looking at:

 

Murton's career

Overall: .296/.364/.452

Nobody on: .330/.385/.526

Runners On: .246/.335/.346

RISP: .257/.354/.359

RISP/2outs: .247/.336/.320

 

So Murton's overall numbers and his numbers with RISP are about 100 points apart. The difference between nobody on and runners on is 230 points.

 

i'm looking at his 3-year splits.

 

Scoring Position 159 61 44 7 2 2 55 25 2 26 1 2 .277 .374 .384 .758

 

and i'm not looking at his numbers with nobody on, that can be just as meaningless as what he hits with runners on, and will follow the mean eventually as well. i'm looking across all situations.

 

his career average w/risp will gravitate.

[Peoriaman]

I think he just means that Murton's biggest strength is working counts. He's one of the last guys you should worry about working deep into a count.

 

Yes, that's what I meant. Murton is quite good at working counts and hitting deep in counts. The career stats show that very clearly, in fact typically the deeper into a count he gets the better of a hitter he is. I'm very much in favor of him working the count.

 

When I said I thought he might be too patient with runners on, it's more of the fact that he would take strikes that he would normally drive for base hits with nobody on. That puts him behind in the count, and anybody gets worse when they are behind in the count. That would explain the higher walks and higher strikeouts (higher walks because the pitcher nibbles and Murton has a good eye), and lower BA and power (because with 2 strikes the pitcher isn't going to throw him a good pitch most of the time).

 

 

agree. I knew what you meant.

[Peoriaman]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

it's meaningless because, as a general rule, a player's BA w/risp naturally gravitates towards his total ba over the course of his career.

 

i like guys who hit well with runners on base, too. but those same guys are those that hit well in any situation: close and late, blowouts early, full moon, saturnalia, fourth of july, etc.

 

murton's career ops w/risp is below his career ops, but not ridiculously below. given enough pa's that number will come up and run consistent with his career averages.

 

 

define "ridiculous". The numbers are very significant, both career and this year.

 

no, they're not, considering the relatively short career that murton has had, 661 total pas.

 

.277/.374/.384

 

to

 

.303/.370/.462

 

not very significant at all. his numbers are down this season, but that usually means that they'll be up next season, or the season after that.

 

Where are you getting those career numbers with RISP? Here is what I'm looking at:

 

Murton's career

Overall: .296/.364/.452

Nobody on: .330/.385/.526

Runners On: .246/.335/.346

RISP: .257/.354/.359

RISP/2outs: .247/.336/.320

 

So Murton's overall numbers and his numbers with RISP are about 100 points apart. The difference between nobody on and runners on is 230 points.

 

i'm looking at his 3-year splits.

 

Scoring Position 159 61 44 7 2 2 55 25 2 26 1 2 .277 .374 .384 .758

 

and i'm not looking at his numbers with nobody on, that can be just as meaningless as what he hits with runners on, and will follow the mean eventually as well. i'm looking across all situations.

 

his career average w/risp will gravitate.

 

 

I surely hope so. I especially sure hope so in the next 30 days. :)

[Peoriaman]

Regardless of how he hits, he needs to do a better job in the field. He missed the cutoff man several times yesterday. Edited September 4, 2007 by Peoriaman