Nothing going on at the Deadline, are the cubs good enough?

[WrigleyinEngland]

not really a prediction thread just a chance to state views on the state of this ballclub. Could Hendry of done more? has the impending sale taken away hendry's ability to make a deal?. Have we got players in the system who are going to help down the stretch? Do the cubs make the playoffs with this team?.

 

My own view is that with the addition of Wood the BP should be fine and i wouldn't of gone looking for another RP.

 

SP really bothers me, i'm uneasy about Marquis with good reason after his 2nd half in previous years and i also can't help wondering how Marshall and Lillys arms will fair during this busy schedule. I may of looked for a SP if available, on the flipside is anyone available that would of been a better option than Gallagher?.

 

The lineup concearns me more than the SP, we are now 9-16 vs LHP which has been a problem over the last 2+ years. I know it's easy to sit here and criticise hendry but the inability to get a capable right handed bat preferably in the OF is inexcusable. Cedeno won't be the answer and i think too much has gone on for Murton to be a success under Piniella, Soto seems to have TB and Fox didn't get a look. When it is all said and done i think the cubs miss the playoffs after seeing too much Jones,Pagan and Floyd in the OF.

[soapy]

well, assuming for a moment that nothing happens in the next seven hours, my feelings are that the Cubs might be good enough, but i have several concerns.

 

CF, RF and C (and probably SS) are problem areas, offensively. Some of this could be helped in-house with Murton, Soto and maybe even Cedeno. Pie could also be an outside shot to join the club and help out, but i doubt it.

 

I worry about SP. Marquis is struggling and I am concerned that Lilly and/or Marshall won't be able to maintain their performance to date. Especially Marshall. I hope I'm wrong there, but the Cubs offense isn't strong enough to withstand a meltdown from a couple of starters toward the end of the season.

 

To your first question: Could Hendry have done more? It's hard to say. It just depends on what is available and for what price. It seems there are some options out there in Griffey, Dunn, Church, Renteria, R. Hernandez, etc. but it's hard to say what teams were seeking for these guys. Maybe Hendry thought the asking prices were too high.

[Keener98]

not really a prediction thread just a chance to state views on the state of this ballclub. Could Hendry of done more? has the impending sale taken away hendry's ability to make a deal?. Have we got players in the system who are going to help down the stretch? Do the cubs make the playoffs with this team?.

 

My own view is that with the addition of Wood the BP should be fine and i wouldn't of gone looking for another RP.

 

SP really bothers me, i'm uneasy about Marquis with good reason after his 2nd half in previous years and i also can't help wondering how Marshall and Lillys arms will fair during this busy schedule. I may of looked for a SP if available, on the flipside is anyone available that would of been a better option than Gallagher?.

 

The lineup concearns me more than the SP, we are now 9-16 vs LHP which has been a problem over the last 2+ years. I know it's easy to sit here and criticise hendry but the inability to get a capable right handed bat preferably in the OF is inexcusable. Cedeno won't be the answer and i think too much has gone on for Murton to be a success under Piniella, Soto seems to have TB and Fox didn't get a look. When it is all said and done i think the cubs miss the playoffs after seeing too much Jones,Pagan and Floyd in the OF.

 

I agree with this statement, but disagree about the need for a starting pitcher. Sure if it was realistic that Marquis could be removed from the rotation then Id be all for it, but I think we all know thats not happening with that contract. Marshall Im not worried about. There is enough tape on him from last year and this year that teams shouldnt be caught by surprise with him, and the kid just continues to go out and pitch wonderfully. If it was 4 or 5 starts he had done this, I could see the worry, but hes been doing this now for for 10+ starts, so hes got my faith. We need offense, and badly need help vs left handed starters, but I dont think we are going to get it, and it will eventually be our doom.

[WrigleyinEngland]

I'm not worried about Marshall's ability, i actually think he is the better pitcher out of himself and Hill however he's not pitched long stretches without getting some form of injury. Is Gallagher good enough as a back up plan?

[Cubzfan64]

Personally I don't think they are all that solid of a team. They have alot of mix and match parts and an awful lot of holes to be a solid contender for a Championship.

 

Everyone here is fully aware of where their deficiencies are and most would have to admit that this isn't what you would call a "solid" team at all.

 

Of course, that said....

 

If they can get into the postseason, anything can happen - I've seen better Cub teams than this not even make it that far.

[TruffleShuffle]

i think they might the playoffs if they play soto most of the time at C, and murton most of the time in RF. But since they're dumb, they won't do those things.

[jersey cubs fan]

They've got a losing record vs the 5 non-Milwaukee contenders that I believe are most legit, and they face two teams that have had their way with them so far this year over the next 6 days, but after that they only have 4 games vs LA, among that group of contenders they've struggled against. Right now they are on pace for about 85-86 wins. They benefit from getting to play 35 more games against crappy NL Central teams, and another 6 vs the crappy Giants and Marlins. And then there are 6 more against the decent DBacks and Rockies. They need to tread water against the teams that are probably better than them, Philly, Mets and LA, and really pounce on those crap teams if they want to go into the playoffs and possibly host a series or two.

 

Without making any moves, they could be good enough to pull it off, thanks to all those weak NL Central opponents. Obviously that's an unknown though. I'd feel a hell of a lot better if they'd wake up and realize their lineup is nothing more than average and that they need to plug at least one of the big holes.

[Wheelimus]

I suppose "good enough" depends on what exactly we're good enough for. To win the division? No doubt in my mind. We're a game back and the Brewers are falling apart, somewhat literally. We have them beat rotation wise easily. Hell, just look at the WHIPs of the 5 pitchers currently in each teams rotation. I'm of course leaving out Ben Sheets which isn't fair, but he's on the DL for another 2 to 4 weeks and coming back is no sure thing. We've learned that the hard way.

 

Cubs - 1.12/1.17/1.23/1.25/1.30

Brew - 1.08/1.33/1.44/1.45/1.56

 

Not even close. And that 1.08 for the Brew Crew is Gallardo who could no doubt start struggling.

 

Bullpen wise, they probably have the advantage. Wood coming back could change that, I don't know. Probably not the difference maker in the race.

 

Offense wise, even, they aren't beating us as badly as you might think just looking at home run totals. Only Fielder and Hart are really impressing in OPS. And I'll take Lee and Ramirez's bats over those two any day of the week.

 

Now, if we're talking to win the World Series, who knows. Nobody thought the Cards had enough last year. Few thought that the Sox had what it took in '05. Hell, when was the last time a World Series winner has just stood out as a perfect team?

 

So I think, as is, we win the division and once you're in the playoffs, who knows. I'd like to see us upgrade, but I think we can get there as is.

[Soul]

I just don't think the Brewers will continue to fall apart. They'll get it together at some point, to some degree.

 

I put our chances at 50/50 right now.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Nope, I don't think we're good enough. And I don't care whether the post-season is a crap-shoot & that the "best" team doesn't always win (a la cardinals last year). Color me crazy, but I'd rather go into a gun fight w/ more bullets, not less..I don't want to count on lucking into a hot streak. Heck, I'm still not convinced we're gonna make the post-season w/ the present roster...

[Derwood]

i don't think any team is ever "good enough". you can always improve. If the brewers stand pat, that makes no trades today a little easier to accept, but i'd rather not stand pat

[USSoccer]

No, I don't think we're good enough. There are too many holes offensively to prevent us from fading down the stretch.

[jersey cubs fan]

I suppose "good enough" depends on what exactly we're good enough for. To win the division? No doubt in my mind. We're a game back and the Brewers are falling apart, somewhat literally. We have them beat rotation wise easily. Hell, just look at the WHIPs of the 5 pitchers currently in each teams rotation. I'm of course leaving out Ben Sheets which isn't fair, but he's on the DL for another 2 to 4 weeks and coming back is no sure thing. We've learned that the hard way.

 

Cubs - 1.12/1.17/1.23/1.25/1.30

Brew - 1.08/1.33/1.44/1.45/1.56

 

Not even close. And that 1.08 for the Brew Crew is Gallardo who could no doubt start struggling.

 

Bullpen wise, they probably have the advantage. Wood coming back could change that, I don't know. Probably not the difference maker in the race.

 

Offense wise, even, they aren't beating us as badly as you might think just looking at home run totals. Only Fielder and Hart are really impressing in OPS. And I'll take Lee and Ramirez's bats over those two any day of the week.

 

Now, if we're talking to win the World Series, who knows. Nobody thought the Cards had enough last year. Few thought that the Sox had what it took in '05. Hell, when was the last time a World Series winner has just stood out as a perfect team?

 

So I think, as is, we win the division and once you're in the playoffs, who knows. I'd like to see us upgrade, but I think we can get there as is.

 

I think it's a mistake to underplay the difference between the two offenses. The Cubs have a 96 OPS+, MIL has a 108.

 

On the flip side, the Cubs have a 116 ERA+ and MIL has a 103.

 

The Cubs are 10th in the NL in OPS and MIL is 3rd. There's a real difference, and when you consider each team has its own strenght, it's pretty clear the teams are pretty evenly matched, as their records indicate.

[DiamondMind]

 

I think it's a mistake to underplay the difference between the two offenses. The Cubs have a 96 OPS+, MIL has a 108.

 

On the flip side, the Cubs have a 116 ERA+ and MIL has a 103.

 

The Cubs are 10th in the NL in OPS and MIL is 3rd. There's a real difference, and when you consider each team has its own strenght, it's pretty clear the teams are pretty evenly matched, as their records indicate.

 

When they get Sheets back will greatly decide how long that pitching ratio stays lopsided. Alternatively we could make up some ground if we finally found a RF.

[Fro]

We're good enough to win the division... the playoffs is another story. We really do need another bat.

[Mephistopheles]

Probably not.

[nolanwood]

This team is definitely capable of making it to the postseason, and I don't see how anybody could say they aren't. Hell, the Cardinals are capable of making it to the postseason, and they're 6 games back and look awful on paper. Anything can happen. The Cubs have a couple obvious holes, however, those holes may not be big enough to prevent us from winning in a sub-par division.

 

For us to keep this pace up, we're gonna need a second half suprise from Murton/Pie/Etc.

Edited July 31, 2007 by nolanwood

[Keener98]

 

I think it's a mistake to underplay the difference between the two offenses. The Cubs have a 96 OPS+, MIL has a 108.

 

On the flip side, the Cubs have a 116 ERA+ and MIL has a 103.

 

The Cubs are 10th in the NL in OPS and MIL is 3rd. There's a real difference, and when you consider each team has its own strenght, it's pretty clear the teams are pretty evenly matched, as their records indicate.

 

When they get Sheets back will greatly decide how long that pitching ratio stays lopsided. Alternatively we could make up some ground if we finally found a RF.

 

There really hasnt been much of a difference From Gallardo to Sheets. In fact the numbers show that Gallardo has been better than Sheets this year.

[Ender]

The answer to this question depends on whether or not you really think the pitching can keep it up. I feel they are pitching over their heads but well Icould easily be wrong too.

[Keener98]

The answer to this question depends on whether or not you really think the pitching can keep it up. I feel they are pitching over their heads but well Icould easily be wrong too.

 

But what happens when Ryan Braun quits performing way way over his head? Fielder is in a big time HR drought, JJ Hardy remembered who he was, Weeks has been optioned to AAA, and all the Brewers starting pitching is suspect, outside of Gallardo who looks like the real deal.

 

The only pitchers on the Cubs who really have performed better than expected are Lilly and Marshall. Lillys numbers in his past have been inflated by pitching in the AL East, so who knows maybe facing the weaker NL, Lilly really is this good. Marshall is a young kid who has talent, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of pitching in a playoff race.

[Soul]

The answer to this question depends on whether or not you really think the pitching can keep it up. I feel they are pitching over their heads but well Icould easily be wrong too.

 

But what happens when Ryan Braun quits performing way way over his head? Fielder is in a big time HR drought, JJ Hardy remembered who he was, Weeks has been optioned to AAA, and all the Brewers starting pitching is suspect, outside of Gallardo who looks like the real deal.

 

The only pitchers on the Cubs who really have performed better than expected are Lilly and Marshall. Lillys numbers in his past have been inflated by pitching in the AL East, so who knows maybe facing the weaker NL, Lilly really is this good. Marshall is a young kid who has talent, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of pitching in a playoff race.

 

So it's a race between the Crew and Cubs to see who implodes the most? :lol:

[soapy]

I'm starting to think that whether or not this offense will have enough will probably be dictated by two positions: Catcher and Right Field. I'm guessing at this point that it's Theriot and/or Cedeno the rest of the way at SS, and Jones/Pagan in CF. I have little to no hope that they will improve, so I just hope they don't decline any further.

 

RF: Murton needs to start getting starts vs. all LHP at an absolute minimum and preferably more than that. A 50/50 split of playing time would even be an improvement at this point. On top of that, Murton and Floyd both need to produce. I've stuck up for Murton for two years and will continue to do so but he and Floyd need to start hitting (with some power too) if this team is going to score enough runs.

 

C: One of two things needs to happen: 1) Kendall needs to prove Hendry right and start producing. It's possible (though not at all likely, IMO) that he could regain even last year's form. He put up .321/.391/.368 after the all-star break last year after struggling in the first half. If he got even close to that, I'd be beyond thrilled. 2) The other alternative is to give Soto a shot. The guy is mashing and the Cubs are currently getting almost nothing from the Catcher's spot. At the very least, call him up to alternate with Kendall (instead of Hill).

 

I don't feel confident that the SP will continue to be quite as good as it's been to date. Even a slight drop off will be costly if the offense doesn't improve. I'll give Hendry the benefit of the doubt (for once) and try to believe that the pieces he wanted to acquire were just too costly. However, there are in-house option available that have a legitimate chance to improve this team and they need to be used. Soto and Murton being two of them. Going on a hot streak doesn't mean you have to maintain the status quo. Things could still be improved, and they should.

 

If these things happen, they can be good enough. If they maintain current production from C and RF, I don't think they make it.

[Ender]

The answer to this question depends on whether or not you really think the pitching can keep it up. I feel they are pitching over their heads but well Icould easily be wrong too.

 

But what happens when Ryan Braun quits performing way way over his head? Fielder is in a big time HR drought, JJ Hardy remembered who he was, Weeks has been optioned to AAA, and all the Brewers starting pitching is suspect, outside of Gallardo who looks like the real deal.

 

The only pitchers on the Cubs who really have performed better than expected are Lilly and Marshall. Lillys numbers in his past have been inflated by pitching in the AL East, so who knows maybe facing the weaker NL, Lilly really is this good. Marshall is a young kid who has talent, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of pitching in a playoff race.

 

Yeah I was thinking more of good enough to do anything in the playoffs. The Cubs or Brewers or maybe even the Cardinals will take 1st in the NL Central but I don't think any of them are a playoff team in any of the other divisions.

[soccer10k]

I think the team is good enough to make the playoffs and maybe win a playoff series depending on who the first round opponent is. As much as I'm enjoying watching the team, I don't think they'll win the pennant.

[FergieJ31]

As Billy Beane says, the playoffs are a crapshoot. It's rare for the underdog to have less than a 40% chance of winning a single game, even in the biggest mismatches on paper.

 

If the Cubs played the Braves or Mets in a 7-game series, as things stand today, they'd have no worse than a 44-45% chance of winning the series.