How About This for a Blockbuster Trade?

[davearm]

In what world should a guy who hits 40 homers every year and can't do anything a number two hitter is supposed to do hit second instead of fourth?

People look at the 40 HRs and the power-hitter body and automatically assume Dunn's a middle-of-the-order run producer.

 

He's not.

 

He doesn't put the ball in play nearly enough to drive in the guys on base ahead of him with any sort of consistency.

 

I recently came across a stat called OBI (and OBI%).

 

OBI (Others Batted In) = runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR.

OBI% = the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter's plate appearances.

 

Baseball's elite run producers show OBI%s of around 20%. Numbers in the high teens are good; mid-teens are decent; low teens are below average.

 

Dunn was at 12.7% in 2006 (good for #208 of 256 guys w/ 300+ PAs), and 13.5% in 2005 (187th of 275).

 

Needless to say, that's not the sort of production you want out of your #3/4/5 hitters.

[shnsajax]

In what world should a guy who hits 40 homers every year and can't do anything a number two hitter is supposed to do hit second instead of fourth?

People look at the 40 HRs and the power-hitter body and automatically assume Dunn's a middle-of-the-order run producer.

 

He's not.

 

He doesn't put the ball in play nearly enough to drive in the guys on base ahead of him with any sort of consistency.

 

I recently came across a stat called OBI (and OBI%).

 

OBI (Others Batted In) = runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR.

OBI% = the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter's plate appearances.

 

Baseball's elite run producers show OBI%s of around 20%. Numbers in the high teens are good; mid-teens are decent; low teens are below average.

 

Dunn was at 12.7% in 2006 (good for #208 of 256 guys w/ 300+ PAs), and 13.5% in 2005 (187th of 275).

 

Needless to say, that's not the sort of production you want out of your #3/4/5 hitters.

 

Thank You :-)

[Outshined_One]

In what world should a guy who hits 40 homers every year and can't do anything a number two hitter is supposed to do hit second instead of fourth?

People look at the 40 HRs and the power-hitter body and automatically assume Dunn's a middle-of-the-order run producer.

 

He's not.

 

He doesn't put the ball in play nearly enough to drive in the guys on base ahead of him with any sort of consistency.

 

I recently came across a stat called OBI (and OBI%).

 

OBI (Others Batted In) = runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR.

OBI% = the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter's plate appearances.

 

Baseball's elite run producers show OBI%s of around 20%. Numbers in the high teens are good; mid-teens are decent; low teens are below average.

 

Dunn was at 12.7% in 2006 (good for #208 of 256 guys w/ 300+ PAs), and 13.5% in 2005 (187th of 275).

 

Needless to say, that's not the sort of production you want out of your #3/4/5 hitters.

 

Here's a legitimate question I have about that, however.

 

Is this a byproduct of Dunn not being able to drive in runner in these situations or is this a byproduct of Dunn not having anyone in front of him who got on base regularly enough for him to drive in those runners through something other than homeruns?

 

One other point I think people are overlooking. Even though Dunn is prone to strikeouts, he's really good at drawing walks. While there are incredibly few situations where a walk can produce an RBI, it's a productive AB and gets another runner on base. That's something worth having in a situation with runners on.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

With RISP, Dunn has an 882 OPS.

 

In 2 out, RISP Dunn has an 842 OPS.

 

Sandwich him between Ramirez and Lee, and I don't think this team has much problem scoring runs.

[mhuber92211]

Who doesn't love Dunn?

 

Me. Talk about overrated. I would rather keep Murton who would out produce Dunn. HR is an overrated stat. You can score without a HR. You can't score that often when you have a Run Producer setting the all time record for season strikeouts.

[Amazing_Grace]

I don't like this deal. You're trading one established young pitcher and a solid ML ready left fielder capable of an .800 OPS for a young catcher, who, at best, will play about 3/4 of the team's games in a season, and a soon to be FA that plays the same position as one of the prospects. A starting pitcher of Hill's caliber is better than a catching prospect (don't we already have one sitting in AAA for no particular reason). Murton may well put up a similar or better OPS than Dunn in a few years without costing as much.

[shnsajax]

With RISP, Dunn has an 882 OPS.

 

In 2 out, RISP Dunn has an 842 OPS.

 

Sandwich him between Ramirez and Lee, and I don't think this team has much problem scoring runs.

 

My fear with that is having Aramis lead off the inning more often with that. If we have runners one 1st and 3rd with one out a strike out or a double play are the most likely scenario. OPS is nice, but its masked by his raw power. His ba drops by over 30 points with runners on base.

 

If Soriano continues to hit, Dunn will see his BA increase the most hitting infront of Lee and Aramis. Imagine if he can actually hit .300. His obp will be around .400. Its a small sample size, but Dunn actually his .308 the last 3 years hitting #2.

[A New Era]

Hey, Yankee's suck this year so why don't we trade them some young pitching talent and take Arod off their hands. :wink: (yes, somewhat sarcastic OK?)

[davearm]

With RISP, Dunn has an 882 OPS.

 

In 2 out, RISP Dunn has an 842 OPS.

 

Sandwich him between Ramirez and Lee, and I don't think this team has much problem scoring runs.

Perhaps that's true.

 

But that doesn't make it the optimal lineup configuration.

 

Soriano - Dunn - Lee - Ramirez - Floyd would probably be the best way to order the top half of a lineup with Dunn added.

[shnsajax]

With RISP, Dunn has an 882 OPS.

 

In 2 out, RISP Dunn has an 842 OPS.

 

Sandwich him between Ramirez and Lee, and I don't think this team has much problem scoring runs.

Perhaps that's true.

 

But that doesn't make it the optimal lineup configuration.

 

Soriano - Dunn - Lee - Ramirez - Floyd would probably be the best way to order the top half of a lineup with Dunn added.

 

Do you have Soriano playing CF?

[Backtobanks]

Who doesn't love Dunn?

 

Me. Talk about overrated. I would rather keep Murton who would out produce Dunn. HR is an overrated stat. You can score without a HR. You can't score that often when you have a Run Producer setting the all time record for season strikeouts.

 

 

Amen! I've been against Dunn since the beginning. First, he's pitiful in LF and can't play RF which means you've got to mess with moving Soriano again. I'm all in favor of trading Hill or Marshall for an impact bat, but the problems Dunn would cause with his defense and moving Soriano would detract from what the team is doing now. Hill or Marshall probably could get us Salty from the Braves and give us a young, cheap player at a position that is woefully weak now.

[Iceblink]

While it would be fun to watch him hit homers in Wrigley, I'm not all that crazy about adding Dunn. His bat would make us better, but there are some holes in his offensive game.

 

Most importantly, he's a DH. He's bad and (from what I've read) indifferent in LF. He would be terrible in RF. There's no position you could put him on the Cubs (including 1B) that wouldn't make the team worse defensively.

 

This team has also been better defensively with Soriano in LF and a real centerfielder.

 

I am more than ready to give Murton a shot somewhere else, because I don't think he's going to produce runs well enough to justify playing LF, and he can't play anywhere else very well. Of course, his value is at its lowest point since joining the Cubs, so that's prime time for Hendry to trade him for a nice AAAA player.

[Jazz]

Truth be told, I'd rather Griffey. 1st off, hes a rental no doubt if we aquire Dunn. Were gonna have enough trouble signing Z. 2ndly, Dunn in right would be a disaster, and I like keeping Sori in left. You can stick Griffey anywhere.

3rdly, I like Griffey's line of 291 .391 .575 over Dunn's line of .259 .349 .549. With valentin, this lineup would be unbelievably good at scoring runs.

 

Soriano

Lee

Ramirez

Griffey Jr.

Floyd

Derosa

Fontenot/Theriot

Valentin

 

Run-a-palooza.

[chopsx9]

Who doesn't love Dunn?

 

Me. Talk about overrated. I would rather keep Murton who would out produce Dunn. HR is an overrated stat. You can score without a HR. You can't score that often when you have a Run Producer setting the all time record for season strikeouts.

 

I don't mind Dunn, I am not nearly as enamoured with him as some on this board. He brings some pretty big positives too the table, but also brings some pretty significant negatives.

 

He is atrocious in the field. A scout quoted on ESPN said don't even think of putting him at first. He would be a disaster in RF. So as long as you factor that in and are okay with that, he might be your man.

 

I, personally, would never hit him third. He is not a good hitter. He gets on base well (not quite as well so far this year) and hits HR's well but outside of those two instances you're in trouble. Again some significant positives, but don't assume away the significant negatives. Ask Reds fans how frustrating it is watching all those called third strikes. I actually like him 2nd, heck Soriano is leadoff.

 

I certainly wouldn't scream if they aquired him (depending on what they had to give up) but he's not that perfect fit that would get me all excited. I'd prefer Griffey, but I will admit there is at least a hint of wanting to say Griffey played for the Cubs to that.

[Yestheydo]

 

Furthermore, I'd much rather have Valentin behind the dish than the two inept bozos we've been running out there.

 

Valentin behind the plate makes Michael Barrett look like Pudge Rodriguez. There's a reason the Reds usually carry three catchers; ideally, Valentin is just a pinch hitter. No way do we want him starting.

[FergieJ31]

Hey, Yankee's suck this year so why don't we trade them some young pitching talent and take Arod off their hands. :wink: (yes, somewhat sarcastic OK?)

 

Or any interest in Abreu? I'd love to see him patrolling RF.

[Abe Frohman]

In what world should a guy who hits 40 homers every year and can't do anything a number two hitter is supposed to do hit second instead of fourth?

People look at the 40 HRs and the power-hitter body and automatically assume Dunn's a middle-of-the-order run producer.

 

He's not.

 

He doesn't put the ball in play nearly enough to drive in the guys on base ahead of him with any sort of consistency.

 

I recently came across a stat called OBI (and OBI%).

 

OBI (Others Batted In) = runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR.

OBI% = the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter's plate appearances.

 

Baseball's elite run producers show OBI%s of around 20%. Numbers in the high teens are good; mid-teens are decent; low teens are below average.

 

Dunn was at 12.7% in 2006 (good for #208 of 256 guys w/ 300+ PAs), and 13.5% in 2005 (187th of 275).

 

Needless to say, that's not the sort of production you want out of your #3/4/5 hitters.

 

That's an interesting statistic that makes lots of sense. I don't know what the hard thing to understand is about a #2 hitter who can handle the bat. I'd rather have a guy like Jay Bell hitting second - a guy who doesn't necessarily have a great Batting Average, but can move the runners over with a groundout, bunt, or flyball to set up the RBI machines. I like situational hitters in the #2 spot, and I like them with speed.

[reds44]

Marshall instead of Hill and I'd do it.

 

Any Reds deal with the Cubs starts with Sean Marshall.

 

Also, the Reds may be close to dealing Dunn to the LAA.

 

I'll be surprised if the Reds deal Griffey this year. He's closing in on 600 homers, and come August and September he is going to be our only draw. I think it's more likely he gets taded next year in his walk year then this year.

[reds44]

Who doesn't love Dunn?

 

Me. Talk about overrated. I would rather keep Murton who would out produce Dunn. HR is an overrated stat. You can score without a HR. You can't score that often when you have a Run Producer setting the all time record for season strikeouts.

Dunn produces over 200 runs a year. Matt Murton will never produce 200 runs in his career.

[mhuber92211]

Marshall instead of Hill and I'd do it.

 

Any Reds deal with the Cubs starts with Sean Marshall.

 

Also, the Reds may be close to dealing Dunn to the LAA.

 

That is a better deal for both teams. Joe Saunders and Eric Aybar might be enough to get that deal Dunn (Ha, Ha)

 

Dunn is the perfect example of how overvalued OBP really is. Don't misunderstand, getting on base is important but it does not trump all other offensive stats. There is a reason that for nearly 100 years the only stats that people would recite about players were BA, HR & RBI. Dunn has some things going for him but not a lot. He can hit the Ball VERY far when he connects but is ultimately the 4th best HR hitter on the Cubs should he be picked up. Does 1 team really need that many HR hitters? 4 Solo HR is the same as 2 2 Run HR. Finding a good balance through the entire order makes better sense. See the Red Sox, Brewers & Angels this season as an example (although there are some holes on each team).

[mhuber92211]

P.S. I would deal Hill for Salty tonight. That is a good deal.

[soccer10k]

Can we replace Rich Hill with Koyie Hill in that deal? :D

[soccer10k]

Would Dunn really be that much of a butcher in RF if the Cubs somehow got that deal done? I mean his bat alone already makes up for a lot of it and the Cubs could afford another black hole in the order (at least for the moment) in playing Pie everyday in CF. I would think his range would at least help lessen the damage Dunn could do in RF. Soriano has proven to be a more than capable LFer so Pie could just shade over to right a bit to help out Dunn.

 

I'm just thinking out loud and just throwing this out there so if I'm completely off base, don't rip into me too hard.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Would Dunn really be that much of a butcher in RF if the Cubs somehow got that deal done? .

 

Considering how bad Floyd is defensively in right, dealing for Dunn might upgrade our defense.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Would Dunn really be that much of a butcher in RF if the Cubs somehow got that deal done? .

 

Considering how bad Floyd is defensively in right, dealing for Dunn might upgrade our defense.

 

For someone that has such a man-crush on Dunn, you are either extremely myopic, or you just don't watch the ballgames. Dunn is the WORST defensive outfielder I've seen in a long time. A one-legged Cliff Floyd is still a superior defender to Dunn on his best day.

 

And Dunn is a one-dimensional zero with declining peripherals. Total yuck. Now, you want to talk Junior, I'm on board with that idea. And I love the Marshall + Murton idea. But enough of the Adam Dunn lust, I want no part of him.