SORIANO HAS ARRIVED!

[Chocolate Milk]

Leading off will get him more plate appearances.

[chuckywang]

Worth every cent of the 136 million.

 

 

When he is putting up a +850 ops in 8 years I will agree with this statement. Tufffy Rhodes hit 3 hr in a game once, I wouldnt pay him $136.

 

Hmm...I would, but for no other reason than for him to fetch me my snacks.

[rocket]

i'm pleasantly surprised, soriano has been very good so far.

 

though i wonder if he can sustain his .377 babip.

[Chocolate Milk]

I love the Fonz. Can't help it.

[chuckywang]

Who cares what he's making? It's not coming out of my pocket.

 

Soriano could single tomorrow, and it would LOWER his June slugging percentage. Absolutely zoned in.

[Balsa]

i'm pleasantly surprised, soriano has been very good so far.

 

though i wonder if he can sustain his .377 babip.

That's due to regress, but I've seen more outrageous BABIP and for longer (BP Upton).

[CoolHandLuke]

Who cares what he's making? It's not coming out of my pocket.

 

Soriano could single tomorrow, and it would LOWER his June slugging percentage. Absolutely zoned in.

 

It is coming from the money that is going to be used to bring in other players though. Just because we aren't directly responsible for the budget doesn't mean that it doesn't affect us as fans, or that we shouldn't take it into consideration.

[C.C.]

Worth every cent of the 136 million.

 

 

When he is putting up a +850 ops in 8 years I will agree with this statement. Tufffy Rhodes hit 3 hr in a game once, I wouldnt pay him $136.

 

Key word there...

[hawkcub]

Who cares what he's making? It's not coming out of my pocket.

 

Soriano could single tomorrow, and it would LOWER his June slugging percentage. Absolutely zoned in.

 

It is coming from the money that is going to be used to bring in other players though. Just because we aren't directly responsible for the budget doesn't mean that it doesn't affect us as fans, or that we shouldn't take it into consideration.

 

For years Cub fans have cried the Cubs don't do what it takes to get in top teir FA's. They finally do it but people still aren't happy.

[Jon]

i'm pleasantly surprised, soriano has been very good so far.

 

though i wonder if he can sustain his .377 babip.

That's due to regress, but I've seen more outrageous BABIP and for longer (BP Upton).

I'm not sure "regress" is the right word, though. Crash might be more accurate. Even last year his BABIP was .302.

 

Soriano has never been a high BA guy. In fact, his BA last year was .277. His career high in 2002 was an even .300. Once his BABIP starts to drop, hopefully he'll become a little more patient. His IsoD is .027 lower than it was last year, which will need some improvement over the full season, and his IsoP .041 lower. The challenge for him will be to see if he can continue to put up good numbers when some of those balls start not to drop for hits.

 

 

Personally, I'm just hoping for a few good seasons out of Soriano. I don't think there's any way he lives up to his contract in any of the 8 seasons (when looking at the contract divided evenly across the seasons instead of the way it's backloaded right now), so I can only keep my fingers crossed that something good happens very soon with this team. Even with the possibilities of market inflation down the road, it doesn't look pretty.

[otis89]

Edit: Nevermind.

[Yestheydo]

In his career, Soriano's OPS with the bases empty is .862. With runners on, it's .799 and with RISP it's .770. So no matter where in the lineup you hit him, he becomes a worse hitter with men on base, and it makes little sense to move him down in the order in hopes of getting men on in front of him, thus making him a worse hitter.

 

In comparison, Ramirez has an .804 lifetime OPS with the bases empty, .858 with runners on, and .870 with RISP (.998 with them loaded btw). Lee goes .864 -- .867 -- .884. Just for fun, Manny Ramirez: .951 -- 1.062 -- 1.067. Now there's a guy who should never lead off. Soriano should, unless you want to make him less effective.

 

Also, with all the money the Cubs have blown on the Rusches and Neifis and Joneses and Izturisises of the world, it's nice for once that they overpaid for someone who's actually productive, whether he's truly "worth it" or not.

[frostwyrm]

In his career, Soriano's OPS with the bases empty is .862. With runners on, it's .799 and with RISP it's .770. So no matter where in the lineup you hit him, he becomes a worse hitter with men on base, and it makes little sense to move him down in the order in hopes of getting men on in front of him, thus making him a worse hitter.

 

 

Stuff like this is a major reason why I don't like his contract. He's being paid huge money primarily for his ability to hit home runs but he's not very good at it when men are on base, which is unfortunate, because homers with runners on base are worth a hell of a lot more than homers with bases empty.

 

 

That said, I love the hot streak.

[Yestheydo]

In his career, Soriano's OPS with the bases empty is .862. With runners on, it's .799 and with RISP it's .770. So no matter where in the lineup you hit him, he becomes a worse hitter with men on base, and it makes little sense to move him down in the order in hopes of getting men on in front of him, thus making him a worse hitter.

 

 

Stuff like this is a major reason why I don't like his contract. He's being paid huge money primarily for his ability to hit home runs but he's not very good at it when men are on base, which is unfortunate, because homers with runners on base are worth a hell of a lot more than homers with bases empty.

 

That said, I love the hot streak.

 

The effect he and Pie seem to have on each other is making the contract look less horrible to me. I don't know that I can remember a more electrifying combo at the top of the order, Dernier/ Sandberg included. Hopefully Pie sticks in the 2 hole.

[Exile on Waveland]

Who cares what he's making? It's not coming out of my pocket.

 

Soriano could single tomorrow, and it would LOWER his June slugging percentage. Absolutely zoned in.

 

That's myopic. Regardless of who's paying him, the payor only has so much money to spend.

[BigSlick]

You guys are all missing the point. The only reason Soriano is getting hot is because Felix Pie, his like best friend, is on the roster.

 

This happened before.

 

Pie needs to stay on this roster.

[sunnydoo]

and anything less than a 1.000 OPS for 136 mil isn't worth it. So, no, he's not likely to be worth every cent (and wouldn't be even if he kept this same level of production up over the next 8 years)

 

So a 1 OPS now equals 17 Million on today's market? Who knew?

 

Talking about abuse of statistics.... :roll:

[Jon]

In his career, Soriano's OPS with the bases empty is .862. With runners on, it's .799 and with RISP it's .770. So no matter where in the lineup you hit him, he becomes a worse hitter with men on base, and it makes little sense to move him down in the order in hopes of getting men on in front of him, thus making him a worse hitter.

 

In comparison, Ramirez has an .804 lifetime OPS with the bases empty, .858 with runners on, and .870 with RISP (.998 with them loaded btw). Lee goes .864 -- .867 -- .884. Just for fun, Manny Ramirez: .951 -- 1.062 -- 1.067. Now there's a guy who should never lead off. Soriano should, unless you want to make him less effective.

 

Also, with all the money the Cubs have blown on the Rusches and Neifis and Joneses and Izturisises of the world, it's nice for once that they overpaid for someone who's actually productive, whether he's truly "worth it" or not.

You get a different sense of things if you look at the none on/men on splits year by year. Over his last five seasons:

 

2002

Overall - .300/.332/.547/.879

None on (464 ABs) - .287/.322/.550/.872

Men on (232 ABs) - .328/.353/.543/.896

 

2003

Overall - .290/.338/.525/.863

None on (439 ABs) - .305/.348/.569/.917

Men on (243 ABs) - .263/.320/.444/.764

 

2004

Overall - .280/.324/.484/.808

None on (358 ABs) - .265/.308/.480/.788

Men on (250 ABs) - .300/.345/.488/.833

 

2005

Overall - .268/.309/.512/.821

None on (349 ABs) - .292/.340/.547/.887

Men on (288 ABs) - .240/.273/.469/.742

 

2006

Overall - .277/.351/.560/.911

None on (435 ABs) - .278/.326/.556/.882

Men on (212 ABs) - .274/.396/.566/.962

 

 

His career splits with nobody on vs. with men on are really skewed by two seasons (2003 when he had a good year and 2005 when he had a mediocre year). Of those five seasons, though, he actually had a higher OPS with men on base compared to nobody on in three of the five seasons. And that includes his career year, when he had a significantly higher OPS with men on base than he did when he came up with the bases empty (mainly because of a huge increase in walks).

 

I really don't think there's any real statistical foundation to the belief that he's just a better hitter batting leadoff than hitting in the middle of the order. The idea that he can only do well batting leadoff just took off earlier, yet I have yet to see anything that makes me believe there is anything actually behind it.

[cubfan1955]

He just hit his 3rd HR tonight. Bow down haters!

 

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots.

 

Well done, Cubs. Well done.

 

Yes, because only the Cubs have realized that Soriano hits best out of the leadoff spot. Those stupid, stupid Cubs.

 

I'm sorry, but I don't believe that where he hits in the lineup makes a damn bit of difference. Of course he wants to lead off, he loves to swing the bat. He gets more chance to do so if he hits first. But would he suddenly be terrible hitting 3rd or 5th? I don't believe it.

 

And frankly, there's no stats that "prove" in any real sense, that his spot in the lineup effects his performance. He had a great year last year hitting 1st. Would he have had the same production in his walk year hitting 3rd or 5th? I think so. It amazes me how many people say "he hits better in the leadoff spot" as if his position in the lineup determined the results of his ABs more than all the other factors at play.

Yeah, agree completely. What a waste of run potential. 3 homers and 3 RBI and most people around here think that is great. Turns out the Cubs offense added in 6 other runs. It would not have been nearly as much fun if the Cubs had lost 4-3 which isn't all that unlikely.

[Tracer Bullet]

He just hit his 3rd HR tonight. Bow down haters!

 

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots.

 

Well done, Cubs. Well done.

 

Yes, because only the Cubs have realized that Soriano hits best out of the leadoff spot. Those stupid, stupid Cubs.

 

I'm sorry, but I don't believe that where he hits in the lineup makes a damn bit of difference. Of course he wants to lead off, he loves to swing the bat. He gets more chance to do so if he hits first. But would he suddenly be terrible hitting 3rd or 5th? I don't believe it.

 

And frankly, there's no stats that "prove" in any real sense, that his spot in the lineup effects his performance. He had a great year last year hitting 1st. Would he have had the same production in his walk year hitting 3rd or 5th? I think so. It amazes me how many people say "he hits better in the leadoff spot" as if his position in the lineup determined the results of his ABs more than all the other factors at play.

Yeah, agree completely. What a waste of run potential. 3 homers and 3 RBI and most people around here think that is great. Turns out the Cubs offense added in 6 other runs. It would not have been nearly as much fun if the Cubs had lost 4-3 which isn't all that unlikely.

 

Exactly. I'm not hating on Soriano, he's a fine player. If he matches last year, I'll be thrilled (if he does it for even half of his current contract I'd be shocked). But it's a waste to hit him in the leadoff spot regardless of what he says or thinks. Jon did the leg work I didn't have time to do last night (and presented it better than I could). There's just no evidence to suggest he hits better leading off. It's a myth that too many smart people (here and other places) buy into. Just amazes me that people so willingly accept that there's a causation relationship when there's nothing to support that.

[Tracer Bullet]

He just hit his 3rd HR tonight. Bow down haters!

 

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots.

 

Well done, Cubs. Well done.

 

Better solo HR than no HR at all.

 

And better 2- or 3-run HR than solo.

 

Soriano probably doesn't get those fat pitches with runners on base.

 

Amazing that a guy hits three home runs and people still aren't happy. I'm not expecting everyone to start doing cartwheels and changing their first name to Alfonso, but geez... take a break from wetting on the charcoals for an evening, would ya?

 

Where in my post did I say anything negative about Soriano? I was suggesting that the Cubs are making a mistake by hitting him in leadoff. If you don't agree, fine. If you want to post some sort of argument or evidence, I'd welcome that. But don't take shots at me just b/c we disagree about something. That's lame.

[killthegoat06]

I'm so mad I missed yesterday's game... ](*,)

[RammyFanny]

He just hit his 3rd HR tonight. Bow down haters!

 

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots.

 

Well done, Cubs. Well done.

 

Better solo HR than no HR at all.

 

And better 2- or 3-run HR than solo.

 

Soriano probably doesn't get those fat pitches with runners on base.

 

Amazing that a guy hits three home runs and people still aren't happy. I'm not expecting everyone to start doing cartwheels and changing their first name to Alfonso, but geez... take a break from wetting on the charcoals for an evening, would ya?

 

Where in my post did I say anything negative about Soriano? I was suggesting that the Cubs are making a mistake by hitting him in leadoff. If you don't agree, fine. If you want to post some sort of argument or evidence, I'd welcome that. But don't take shots at me just b/c we disagree about something. That's lame.

I don't know, maybe the same arguments that have been rehashed ever since we signed him? The stats saying how much better he does batting leadoff than down in the order? Not trying to be a smartarse, but I think everyone knows by now that his middle of the order numbers career wise pale in comparison to his leadoff numbers.

[Tracer Bullet]

He just hit his 3rd HR tonight. Bow down haters!

 

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots.

 

Well done, Cubs. Well done.

 

Better solo HR than no HR at all.

 

And better 2- or 3-run HR than solo.

 

Soriano probably doesn't get those fat pitches with runners on base.

 

Amazing that a guy hits three home runs and people still aren't happy. I'm not expecting everyone to start doing cartwheels and changing their first name to Alfonso, but geez... take a break from wetting on the charcoals for an evening, would ya?

 

Where in my post did I say anything negative about Soriano? I was suggesting that the Cubs are making a mistake by hitting him in leadoff. If you don't agree, fine. If you want to post some sort of argument or evidence, I'd welcome that. But don't take shots at me just b/c we disagree about something. That's lame.

I don't know, maybe the same arguments that have been rehashed ever since we signed him? The stats saying how much better he does batting leadoff than down in the order? Not trying to be a smartarse, but I think everyone knows by now that his middle of the order numbers career wise pale in comparison to his leadoff numbers.

 

Did you skip the middle of this thread or just ignore Jon's posts? I think those numbers make clear...well, absolutely nothing. But they certainly don't prove Soriano is destined to hit better in the top spot.

 

BTW-I only highlighted that last part b/c it's such a perfect example of the myth. "Everyone knows" b/c everyone's looked at his numbers last year (his career & walk year) and saw how well he did leading off. And everyone saw how bad he was in Texas, so it must be his position in the order! Until you look at the #s Jon posted and realize...the stats don't really prove anything here. But as long as people keep saying "everyone knows" than everyone will just go on thinking they know something.

[Yestheydo]

In his career, Soriano's OPS with the bases empty is .862. With runners on, it's .799 and with RISP it's .770. So no matter where in the lineup you hit him, he becomes a worse hitter with men on base, and it makes little sense to move him down in the order in hopes of getting men on in front of him, thus making him a worse hitter.

 

In comparison, Ramirez has an .804 lifetime OPS with the bases empty, .858 with runners on, and .870 with RISP (.998 with them loaded btw). Lee goes .864 -- .867 -- .884. Just for fun, Manny Ramirez: .951 -- 1.062 -- 1.067. Now there's a guy who should never lead off. Soriano should, unless you want to make him less effective.

 

Also, with all the money the Cubs have blown on the Rusches and Neifis and Joneses and Izturisises of the world, it's nice for once that they overpaid for someone who's actually productive, whether he's truly "worth it" or not.

You get a different sense of things if you look at the none on/men on splits year by year. Over his last five seasons:

 

2002

Overall - .300/.332/.547/.879

None on (464 ABs) - .287/.322/.550/.872

Men on (232 ABs) - .328/.353/.543/.896

 

2003

Overall - .290/.338/.525/.863

None on (439 ABs) - .305/.348/.569/.917

Men on (243 ABs) - .263/.320/.444/.764

 

2004

Overall - .280/.324/.484/.808

None on (358 ABs) - .265/.308/.480/.788

Men on (250 ABs) - .300/.345/.488/.833

 

2005

Overall - .268/.309/.512/.821

None on (349 ABs) - .292/.340/.547/.887

Men on (288 ABs) - .240/.273/.469/.742

 

2006

Overall - .277/.351/.560/.911

None on (435 ABs) - .278/.326/.556/.882

Men on (212 ABs) - .274/.396/.566/.962

 

 

His career splits with nobody on vs. with men on are really skewed by two seasons (2003 when he had a good year and 2005 when he had a mediocre year). Of those five seasons, though, he actually had a higher OPS with men on base compared to nobody on in three of the five seasons. And that includes his career year, when he had a significantly higher OPS with men on base than he did when he came up with the bases empty (mainly because of a huge increase in walks).

 

I really don't think there's any real statistical foundation to the belief that he's just a better hitter batting leadoff than hitting in the middle of the order. The idea that he can only do well batting leadoff just took off earlier, yet I have yet to see anything that makes me believe there is anything actually behind it.

 

I don't see how breaking it down by year changes the fact that his OPS over his career is significantly higher with nobody on base. Solo homers offend my sensibilities too but that doesn't mean I have to ignore reality. The bottom line is that if they keep winning, he's probably gonna stay there, and I bet we can all agree that would be just fine.