2007 Cubs Pick Discussion

[CubsWin]

Pessimism doesn't work on a logical basis.

 

 

This nonsense again?

 

I like how everytime people question a move by the Cubs they are being illogical pessimists.

No one is saying that.

 

Questioning the moves of any team is every fan's right, but if the questions are shown to be illogical, then it reads like pessimism. No one is taking issue with questioning the Cubs draft choices. They are taking issue with the legitimacy of some of the more illogical questions or concerns. I would expect someone praising the Cubs to have a solid argument for his beliefs, so why shouldn't we expect the same of someone who is being critical?

[RammyFanny]

My thoughts exactly.

 

(To the second round quote i posted)

[CubsWin]

Using outstanding hitting tools at the plate, Vitters was named the Most Valuable Player of the Cape Cod All-Star Game last summer...Widely considered the best high school hitter available...Has a compact swing that will develop power down the road with strong ability to get the bat on the ball with consistency...Right-handed hitter who can handle any type of pitch like Vladimir Guerrero. Has amazing instincts and is very polished...Has the arm strength to play third in the big leagues, but will need to develop in the field. Could eventually land in the outfield if defensive skill at third doesn't progress..Brother Christian was drafted by Oakland in 2006.

 

This could be good or very bad.

 

That's a huge red flag for me. The guy isn't going to learn plate discipline with the Cubs, and he isn't going to handle those pitches against pros. If we have another 4:1 K:BB guy on our hands, he won't help at all.

 

its a real red flag when a prospect is compared to vlad guerrero....

 

It's a red flag to me when people talk about a guy's ability to hit a pitch thrown anywhere. The reason is that Vlad and very few others have been able to carry over that skill into major league success. If they think he can hit all sorts of pitches, that means he swings at all sorts of pitches. And aggressive free swingers don't exactly flourish in the Cubs system. Having the ability to hit anything is nice and all, but if you're confident in your ability to do so, major league pitchers are likely to exploit that.

 

It makes me think of guys like Pedro Felix and Ty Wiggington, guys who may be halfway decent in the counting stats, but are brutal in the rate stats thanks in large part to free swinging low walk taking approaches.

 

it clearly says he can handle any type of pitch, not swing at any type of pitch. it says nothing about being a free swinger.

Wasn't Vitters ranked 2nd among all high school position players for plate discipline?

Vitters is rated as having the second best plate discipline in the draft amongst high school hitters.

Where is all this concern over his plate discipline coming from?

[Mephistopheles]

for ba, plate coverage = discipline. ie if a guy can hit a ball from nose to toes, he has good plate coverage so he has good plate discipline

 

 

 

vitters isnt going to K very much in the pros so for ba he has good plate d.

[Guest]

I updated Derwood's first post with all the Cubs picks.

[cuubs4life]

Ty Wright has really impressed me. he homered today, and made another nice catch. too bad his team got killed though..........

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I updated Derwood's first post with all the Cubs picks.

 

yet another year of me going undrafted

[Guest]

Clark Hardman (9th rounder) is 3/4 against UCLA today with a mammoth HR (all 3 hits against a lefty who dominated against everyone else), he really looks good and is rounding into form after his injury problems last season. Looking like a nice player...he should start out in Boise or even Peoria.

[Lockes Eye Scar]

Clark Hardman... it's probably been mentioned, but what an awesome name.

[CoolHandLuke]

Clark Hardman (9th rounder) is 3/4 against UCLA today with a mammoth HR (all 3 hits against a lefty who dominated against everyone else), he really looks good and is rounding into form after his injury problems last season. Looking like a nice player...he should start out in Boise or even Peoria.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/features/263604.html

 

Just found this article (subscription only) from earlier this year.

 

It didn't take long for Hardman's hard-nosed style of play to make an impact for the Titans. He played a major role on Fullerton's 2004 national championship team, batting .341 and using his plus-plus arm strength to rack up seven outfield assists on his way to freshman All-America honors.

 

He's no longer pitching, but he has regained his exceptional arm strength and is once again among the best defensive center fielders in the nation, thanks to his excellent instincts and first-step quickness.

 

Doesn't say much, but tells the story of how the Cal State Fullerton Coach got Clark to commit by beating him in a game of ping pong.

[jersey cubs fan]

I updated Derwood's first post with all the Cubs picks.

 

Okay, so now we have all the picks up, anybody have any post-op breakdown of the draft?

 

Any stories out there with expectations for these guys?

 

I'm getting a little excited about the possibility of a real catcher coming up through the system. Obviously most of the talk is going to revolve around Vitters for now. I hope like heck he can stick at 3B and not be like most Cubs high school draftees.

[Soriano12]

Aram went from a butcher defender to an above average defender that he is today. And even if he still was a butcher, I could careless, as long as he continues to produce offensively. There is no reason Vitters cannot stick at 3B unless the organization doesn't put forth the effort. The only way a position change should be considered if Vitters moves fast through the system and is MLB ready, and at the same time Aram is still productive with the Cubs.

[jersey cubs fan]

Aram went from a butcher defender to an above average defender that he is today. And even if he still was a butcher, I could careless, as long as he continues to produce offensively. There is no reason Vitters cannot stick at 3B unless the organization doesn't put forth the effort. The only way a position change should be considered if Vitters moves fast through the system and is MLB ready, and at the same time Aram is still productive with the Cubs.

 

I agree with your line of thinking (although I'm not even considering that last part). I'd like to see him stay at 3b regardless if he's gold glove or a little shaky. But it was a common concern that I read about him leading up to and after the draft "if he can stick at 3b".

 

Part of me is just worried about the fate of many Cubs prospects who were forced to move positions, Kelton to OF, Montanez to 2B then LF, Harvey to pitcher (oh wait), etc.

[CubsWin]

for ba, plate coverage = discipline. ie if a guy can hit a ball from nose to toes, he has good plate coverage so he has good plate discipline

 

 

 

vitters isnt going to K very much in the pros so for ba he has good plate d.

So plate discipline still means that he isn't swinging at pitches he can't hit well, right? If so, then my original question stands, why all the concern about Vitters plate discipline?

[imb]

for ba, plate coverage = discipline. ie if a guy can hit a ball from nose to toes, he has good plate coverage so he has good plate discipline

 

 

 

vitters isnt going to K very much in the pros so for ba he has good plate d.

So plate discipline still means that he isn't swinging at pitches he can't hit well, right? If so, then my original question stands, why all the concern about Vitters plate discipline?

 

A walk gets you on base 100% of the time, where contact is a hit 35% of time? (totally made up number).

 

He might be able to hit a ball three feet out of the zone, but there's a reason that only a handful of guys have made a successful career out of doing that.

 

Of course, if he can make solid contact on those pitches, then I'm all for it. He won't be able to pull an ichiro though, because he has no wheels.

[CubsWin]

for ba, plate coverage = discipline. ie if a guy can hit a ball from nose to toes, he has good plate coverage so he has good plate discipline

 

 

 

vitters isnt going to K very much in the pros so for ba he has good plate d.

So plate discipline still means that he isn't swinging at pitches he can't hit well, right? If so, then my original question stands, why all the concern about Vitters plate discipline?

 

A walk gets you on base 100% of the time, where contact is a hit 35% of time? (totally made up number).

 

He might be able to hit a ball three feet out of the zone, but there's a reason that only a handful of guys have made a successful career out of doing that.

 

Of course, if he can make solid contact on those pitches, then I'm all for it. He won't be able to pull an ichiro though, because he has no wheels.

A good point and that helps me understand what Meph was saying, thanks.

 

But it should be noted that if Vitters (or anyone) is making solid contact on a ball that others might not or should not swing at, then we should also factor in the possiblity of extra bases and the ability for that hit, even if it is just a single, to drive in a runner on second or third which a walk can only accomplish with the bases loaded. I agree that, if what Meph says is true and that BA's ranking Vitters 2nd best in plate discipline doesn't mean that he will take a walk very often, then that will likely result in a lower OBP, but it may also result in more RBI and more TB. Not saying that he shouldn't necessarily be more selective at the plate, just that those factors should be included in the discussion as a part of the larger picture.

[CoolHandLuke]

I don't think we will know what Vitter's walk drawing ability is until he faces professional competition. High school numbers do not mean much.

[Outshined_One]

THT had a terrific article on the Top 10 Draft Picks, complete with video for many. Here's Vitters:

 

Roughly speaking, Vitters is a right-handed Moustakas. Vitters has what some consider to be an anomaly, a "pretty" right-handed swing. It's very short, very simple, and certainly looks the part. However, Vitters seems to get "extended" maybe even farther in front than Moustakas, and does not let the ball travel deep into the zone. (Side note: I have a little theory that the reason that most of the longest home runs are hit to the pull-side power alley and center field is because, generally, these pitches get deeper in the zone and hitters hit them closer to their center of rotation... I may be wrong, but hey, it's a thought.)

 

Anyway, unlike Moustakas, Vitters has an aggressive trigger with his left knee and hip that I believe lets him rotate his hips faster (and thus achieve better bat speed) than Moustakas. Moustakas probably has the simpler, "quieter" swing, but I would probably pick Vitters over him based on power potential.

 

Some nice food for thought, especially considering most people were wondering whether Vitters would ever hit 25 or more HRs in a season if he made the majors.

[Guest]

I don't think we will know what Vitter's walk drawing ability is until he faces professional competition. High school numbers do not mean much.

 

I definitely agree. No matter how good LA high school baseball is, it's not going to compare to the the AZL or NWL.

[craig]

Perfect Game also had a scouting report on Vitters. Rawnsley didn't write vitters report, he wrote the Thomas report.

 

But the guy who wrote the Vitters report referred to his power as "prodigious".

 

Again, I would infer the possibiity of hitting more than 20-25 HR's per year. In that scout's opinion, of course.

[YearofDaCubs]

THT had a terrific article on the Top 10 Draft Picks, complete with video for many. Here's Vitters:

 

Roughly speaking, Vitters is a right-handed Moustakas. Vitters has what some consider to be an anomaly, a "pretty" right-handed swing. It's very short, very simple, and certainly looks the part. However, Vitters seems to get "extended" maybe even farther in front than Moustakas, and does not let the ball travel deep into the zone. (Side note: I have a little theory that the reason that most of the longest home runs are hit to the pull-side power alley and center field is because, generally, these pitches get deeper in the zone and hitters hit them closer to their center of rotation... I may be wrong, but hey, it's a thought.)

 

Anyway, unlike Moustakas, Vitters has an aggressive trigger with his left knee and hip that I believe lets him rotate his hips faster (and thus achieve better bat speed) than Moustakas. Moustakas probably has the simpler, "quieter" swing, but I would probably pick Vitters over him based on power potential.

 

Some nice food for thought, especially considering most people were wondering whether Vitters would ever hit 25 or more HRs in a season if he made the majors.

Good read. They liked Vitters over Moustakas and felt that Wieters was an overdraft. I love the Vitters pick and some of our other picks sound promising. I'm not going to complain.

[Guest]

Tony Thomas made BA's college All-American first team.

 

The most improved player in college baseball this season, Thomas raised his batting average by .141 and his slugging percentage by .307 from 2006. The five-tool talent led the Atlantic Coast Conference in batting, slugging, on-base percentage, runs, hits (tied) and doubles.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thomas is the draftee I'm most excited to see in action. I'm holding out hope that the adjustments he's made at the plate allow him to be a really good professional hitter.

[RammyFanny]

Thomas is the draftee I'm most excited to see in action. I'm holding out hope that the adjustments he's made at the plate allow him to be a really good professional hitter.

 

I'm hoping he can make Epatt expendable in a deal, since Epatt could be valued pretty highly as a ML ready 2b, and we aren't in need of any more 2b.

[TruffleShuffle]

Thomas is the draftee I'm most excited to see in action. I'm holding out hope that the adjustments he's made at the plate allow him to be a really good professional hitter.

 

I'm hoping he can make Epatt expendable in a deal, since Epatt could be valued pretty highly as a ML ready 2b, and we aren't in need of any more 2b.

 

bad post