Floyd: Signed Jan. 24th - Hitting 4th before June 1

[bobbyd20]

A guy that couldn't find a job until just weeks before spring training is hitting fourth in our lineup?

 

How much more of the Jim Hendry show must we endure?

[Cubbies4Life]

Jim Hendry is not the one making the lineups. I do like the idea of throwing a lefty in between Lee and Ramirez to balance out the lineup, unfortunately the way this team is constructed we just dont have any good options to do that.

[abuck1220]

i'd prefer it to be a lefty slugging better than .390.

[Abe Frohman]

The dude got like half of our hits!

 

I actually liked tonights version of the lineup. We'll probably see the same again in late August, I'm sure.

[cubfan1955]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

[Guest]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

 

Phew, good thing the Cubs are getting Murton and his 8 RBI out of the lineup. Because RBI is a stat that only considers what the individual player has done.

[Fred Hornkohl]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

 

Phew, good thing the Cubs are getting Murton and his 8 RBI out of the lineup. Because RBI is a stat that only considers what the individual player has done.

 

I don't know if benching Murton is the answer, but this is not good.

 

04/02 - 05/30      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Murton               7   36  0.163

[Tracer Bullet]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

 

Phew, good thing the Cubs are getting Murton and his 8 RBI out of the lineup. Because RBI is a stat that only considers what the individual player has done.

 

I don't know if benching Murton is the answer, but this is not good.

 

04/02 - 05/30      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Murton               7   36  0.163

 

I'm sorry, but I absolutely hate this stat. I know Murton's not hitting any better with RISP than he is otherwise, but knowing the Cubs, many of those runners were on 1st when he come up.

 

All of which is beside the point. I don't care if he drives guys in. I want him to get a hit or a walk and get on base. If he comes up with a guy on 2nd and walks, that's not a "bad" outcome. But he doesn't get the RBI either. As I posted in another thread, except for RBI, he and Floyd's stats heading into yesterday's game were basically identical. But Murton sucks b/c he has few RBI? Sure - glad you're here Lou.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

I don't know if benching Murton is the answer, but this is not good.

 

04/02 - 05/30      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Murton               7   36  0.163

 

I'm sorry, but I absolutely hate this stat. I know Murton's not hitting any better with RISP than he is otherwise, but knowing the Cubs, many of those runners were on 1st when he come up.

 

All of which is beside the point. I don't care if he drives guys in. I want him to get a hit or a walk and get on base. If he comes up with a guy on 2nd and walks, that's not a "bad" outcome. But he doesn't get the RBI either. As I posted in another thread, except for RBI, he and Floyd's stats heading into yesterday's game were basically identical. But Murton sucks b/c he has few RBI? Sure - glad you're here Lou.

 

The stat I quoted does have it's limitations, but the scenario you just used where a batter comes up with a man on 2b and walks, does not have any effect on this stat because in that case the batter is not charged with a runner LOB. No RBI and no LOB means no change in RBI%, while the batters' OBP with RISP will increase even though there is no RBI.

 

It's generally conceded that RBI totals, being a counting stat rather than a rate stat, are not a very good measure of a batter's ability to drive in runs since the batter has no control over how many opportunities he will get, i.e. how many runners will be on base when he comes up. Normalizing those RBI totals by the opportunities they get, as I've done with this stat, overcomes that limitation.

 

04/02 - 05/29         BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  BDI  LOB   RBI%
Murton             0.279  0.353  0.375  0.728  0.318    7   36  0.163
Floyd              0.290  0.355  0.390  0.745  0.338   18   48  0.273

 

You're quite right in that their stats are very close heading into yesterday's game. A difference of .002 in OBP is indeed not material. In the second spot, Floyd and Murton seem to be completely interchangeable because, IMO, OBP is far and away the most significant stat to evaluate for this spot. Hitting lower in the order, then I believe SLG and the ability to drive in runs takes on a greater importance.

 

Now, here's where it gets really interesting. Let's look at Murton's and Floyd's actual numbers hitting in the second spot..........

 

batting 2nd        AB     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  BDI  LOB   RBI%
Murton             15  0.267  0.313  0.333  0.646  0.400    0    7  0.000
Floyd              40  0.325  0.400  0.425  0.825  0.400    8   19  0.296

 

..... and you get a .181 difference in OPS and a .296 difference in RBI%.

 

Now compare that to their production when hitting anywhere from 3rd through 9th in the lineup..........

 

hitting 3rd-9th    AB     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  BDI  LOB   RBI%
Murton             89  0.281  0.360  0.382  0.742  0.308    7   29  0.194
Floyd              57  0.246  0.306  0.298  0.605  0.286    7   29  0.194

 

........ and you see that Murton has a large advantage in OPS but they've got the same RBI% even though Murton had significantly more ABs.

 

Now, I really don't have a dog in this fight. I can see the advantages and the limitations of each player and I'm not lobbying for either one of them to get more or less playing time. I guess what it really comes down to is whether you're taking a long term or a short term perspective. Are we trying to win right now on a day to day basis, or are we trying do what's best for the team in the long run ? It is, to me, a philosophical question, with no quick answers.

 

Disclaimers: these are small sample sizes, particularly when broken down by position in the batting order. Trying to make statistical inferences from these data can be very risky. RBI% is a proxy variable for the elusive clutch hitting, which most concede does not exist. As such, these rates should regress toward a mean over time. Murton, for example, had a 0.219 RBI% last season compared to the team RBI% of 0.197. It's reasonable to expect his numbers this year to move upward toward the team mean of 0.188. I don't have access to Floyd's LOB numbers from last season.

[Tracer Bullet]

I guess I wasn't trying to argue that walking with a guy on 2nd would effect RBI%; I was pointing out that it's wouldn't improve the RBI%, but it's a good result ignored by that stat. It's such a terribly small sample size during the season and again, I frankly don't care how many of the guys on base a particular hitter drives in. Other than a few exceptions (runner on 3rd, less than 2 out in the 9th of a tie or 1-run game) I just want the hitter to get on base. And even in those exceptional cases, it's better to take a walk than swing at a bad pitch just to put it in play and end up popping our or something.

 

As you said in your disclaimer, there's a big sample size problem here. And I hope we're not going to draw any conclusions (I'm not saying you are, but I mean people in general, and specifically Lou) as to whether or not Murton should be hitting 2nd based on the 15 ABs you reference in your quote.

[NCCubFan]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

[wishful thinking]Maybe that means Pie is coming back up to play every day.[/wishful thinking]

[jersey cubs fan]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

[wishful thinking]Maybe that means Pie is coming back up to play every day.[/wishful thinking]

 

Given this teams tendency to shake things up just by reshuffling deck chairs, it wouldn't surprise me.

[NewUserName]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

 

Phew, good thing the Cubs are getting Murton and his 8 RBI out of the lineup. Because RBI is a stat that only considers what the individual player has done.

 

I don't know if benching Murton is the answer, but this is not good.

 

04/02 - 05/30      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Murton               7   36  0.163

 

 

This is why the Cubs traded Rafeal Palmeiro. Didnt drive in runs.

[NCCubFan]

This is why the Cubs traded Rafeal Palmeiro. Didnt drive in runs.

That's not at all why the Cubs traded Palmeiro. Cindy Sandberg was the reason the Cubs traded Palmeiro.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

hey, anything that moves Aramis down in the order...

[RichHillIsABeast]

And what's the current problem with this offense? Not driving in runs. We've had a ton of guys in scoring position and there they stay.

 

Murton's played himself out of a job. You have to actually produce at the ML level to earn and then keep a position.

 

Piniella will play you if you produce. Notice the time Riot got (when he was hot) over Izzy and DeRosa. Murton has no one to blame but himself for his lack of playing time.

[cubfan1955]

You better learn to love him because he's about to become the everyday rightfielder...or so it sounds.

 

Piniella vows set lineup even if it's 'out of a hat'

 

"I've tried to be as fair [as possible] and play everybody. But, I've gotten to the point, really, where the guys who are doing the best job are going to get the playing time. "

 

Four players who may be getting fewer starts are shortstop Cesar Izturis, who's hitting .194 with runners in scoring position, right fielder Matt Murton, who has eight RBIs, catcher Michael Barrett, who has made costly mental mistakes, and Jacque Jones, who has only one home run in 181 at-bats.

[wishful thinking]Maybe that means Pie is coming back up to play every day.[/wishful thinking]

My thinking is we'll see a lot more of Pagan but I like your scenario better. We've literally sucked beyond belief without Pie so I have no problem with us maybe still sucking with Pie. It's possible a player like him could come up and ignite things if he plays most days and leads off. (I'm not giving up on moving Sorianio down in the order! :twisted: )

[jersey cubs fan]

And what's the current problem with this offense? Not driving in runs. We've had a ton of guys in scoring position and there they stay.

 

No we haven't. Why does everybody always talk about RISP? The Cubs have had only the 7th most AB with RISP this season, but they rank 3rd in OPS and 1st in AVG for the season. That means fewer chances than some, but much greater rate of cashing in. Over the last 7 days, when the offense has sucked, their OBP ranks 13th in the league, which means much fewer chances than normal. The Cubs aren't failing with RISP at an alarming rate. The problem is they aren't getting into scoring position. The few hits they've had are measly singles. And they aren't drawing walks. To add insult to injury, they are making outs on the basepaths with their stupid over aggressive mindset of trying to make things happen.

[YearofDaCubs]

And what's the current problem with this offense? Not driving in runs. We've had a ton of guys in scoring position and there they stay.

 

Murton's played himself out of a job. You have to actually produce at the ML level to earn and then keep a position.

 

Piniella will play you if you produce. Notice the time Riot got (when he was hot) over Izzy and DeRosa. Murton has no one to blame but himself for his lack of playing time.

Murton hasn't done jack. Neither has Soriano, Jones, Izturis and others.

[cubfan1955]

Hitting with RISP is not a good measure for this team because you can't really say they are in scoring position unless they are standing on 3rd base. Getting a single with a man on 2nd raises that stat but it sure doesn't result in a RBI all that often. I've never, ever seen a team not score from 2nd on a clean single as much as this team does it.

[TheDude]

Personally I will take less Murton for more Floyd if it also means less Jones and less Izturis. I'm not buying the lack of PT for Barret over the long-term though.

[David]

I would die a happy man if I never had to see the acronym 'RISP' again.

[NewUserName]

I would die a happy man if I never had to see the acronym 'RISP' again.

 

Cubs and their PR machine find it easier to make this claim than OBP. Fixing the OBP thing would mean a change in how the Cubs are run. Fixing the RISP is just waiting for it to get better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Murton's played himself out of a job. You have to actually produce at the ML level to earn and then keep a position.

 

This is a terrible argument. Why does the "earn the job" mantra only apply to Murton? He and Floyd have similar production this year, and Murton is younger, faster, healthier, cheaper, has more of a long term future, is a better defender, outproduced Floyd by a significant margin last year, and is probably better at video games too. All this is, is the all to familiar "default to the veteran", it's nonsense.

[NewUserName]

Murton's played himself out of a job. You have to actually produce at the ML level to earn and then keep a position.

 

This is a terrible argument. Why does the "earn the job" mantra only apply to Murton? He and Floyd have similar production this year, and Murton is younger, faster, healthier, cheaper, has more of a long term future, is a better defender, outproduced Floyd by a significant margin last year, and is probably better at video games too. All this is, is the all to familiar "default to the veteran", it's nonsense.

 

Why gamble on being better when we can guarantee mediocrity with a Veteran?

 

Mediocre might win the Cubs this division or the Wild Card and keep the masses happy for a couple of more years.