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Nate Silver trade suggestions

kroth1342
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kroth1342

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From today's BP Unfiltered:

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=333 (subscription required)

 

Silver comes up with 5 trade ideas to unclog the Cubs OF rotation:

 

1) Jones to CWS for Mike MacDougal

2) Jones to PHI for Jon Lieber

3) Jones to LAA for Erick Aybar

4) Floyd to NYY for Kyle Farnsworth

5) Murton to OAK for Joe Blanton

 

Its tough to say which choice I prefer. Although I desperately want Guzman to replace Miller in the rotation, I would like the insurance Lieber could provide for the rest of the staff. While it would be nice to add some power arms to our bullpen, I can't imagine Farnsworth coming back and I wouldn't want MacDougal to revert to his old form w/o Don Cooper. How about Jones/Miller for Blanton?

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kroth1342 Draft Eligible

kroth1342

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Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

RichHillIsABeast ACL Cubs

RichHillIsABeast

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+1 for Aybar.

 

The rotation doesn't need a trade to fix it. Gooz for 5th starter. The only other pitcher in our rotation that isn't carrying his weight is Zambrano.

 

Our bullpen will be fine.

Rob Knoxville Smokies

Rob

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On a BP, but otherwise completely unrelated note, I got my first question answered today in the Maury Brown chat. Then I got two more answered.

 

Just for kicks, here's the question I asked that finally got me an answer.

 

Rob (Bloomington, IL): Safety Dance; Acid trip or a brilliant work of nonconformist art?

 

Maury Brown: Hmmm... Any video set in medieval times, has a trippy blond dancing around AND little people in it... Is "All of the Above" acceptable?

RichHillIsABeast ACL Cubs

RichHillIsABeast

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Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

kroth1342 Draft Eligible

kroth1342

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Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Ok, didn't have all those in front of me when I posted. I also checked BP2007 and they described Aybar's great defensive ability. Although we'd need to spin Izturis on someone if this trade was made.

Mephistopheles Knoxville Smokies

Mephistopheles

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Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

Banedon GOAT

Banedon

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The nice thing about the Lieber or Blanton trade would be that it would provide some extra flexibility in the bullpen for that Zambrano/A-rod trade....

 

I refuse to quit dreaming.

Post Count Padder Chicago Cubs

Post Count Padder

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I don't know if I'd do any of those trades. Maybe I'd go for Aybar, but we don't need anymore middle relievers, and as much as I still love Jon Lieber, he's well past his prime. Also, I do not wanna trade Murton, period.
Banedon GOAT

Banedon

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I don't know if I'd do any of those trades. Maybe I'd go for Aybar, but we don't need anymore middle relievers, and as much as I still love Jon Lieber, he's well past his prime. Also, I do not wanna trade Murton, period.

 

I was gonna say that Jones isn't exactly a spring chicken, but then I went and looked up Lieber...I didn't realize he's 37! Wow.

Butterscup1679666578 All-Star

Butterscup1679666578

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If the Angels were stupid enough to trade Jones for Aybar, I'd do that deal in a nanosecond.

 

Seriously.

 

Go Murton/Floyd - Pie - Soriano (or Soriano - Pie, whatever)

Aybar at SS, DeRosa/Theriot at 2B. Send down/DFA Cedeno. Izturis to the bench.

rawaction Chicago Cubs

rawaction

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Aybar is a much better hitter than Cedeno. I wouldn't trade Murton at this point. Jones is obviously on his way out. Floyd could go down at any time and is on a 1-year deal. The OF depth could easily become a hole the way it was for the recent post-Sammy years.

 

I don't know that I'd do Jacque for Aybar straight up though. I'd probably want a low level pitching prospect too, especially if the Angels want the Cubs to pick up any money.

kroth1342 Draft Eligible

kroth1342

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Jones is obviously on his way out. Floyd could go down at any time and is on a 1-year deal. The OF depth could easily become a hole the way it was for the recent post-Sammy years.

 

That's a good point, but the one thing I like about this year's club is that if Jones was traded and Floyd went down with an injury, we have two OF replacements in Theriot and DeRosa, and then could bring up Moore to fill our IF needs.

dew1679666265 Iowa Cubs

dew1679666265

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Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Post Count Padder Chicago Cubs

Post Count Padder

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Posted (edited)
Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Aybar hit very well in the minors year in and year out. Ronny really only became a prospect 2 years ago.

 

Edit: Their career minor league lines:

 

Aybar- .311/.356/.454/.810

Cedeno- .265/.316/.376/.692

Edited by Post Count Padder
dew1679666265 Iowa Cubs

dew1679666265

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Aybar hit very well in the minors year in and year out. Ronny really only became a prospect 2 years ago.

 

Yeah, I really like his minor league numbers but I'd be afraid they'd be inflated. Also, it worries me that Aybar has a similar PECOTA rating to Cedeno - who most of us regard as well out of his league and nothing more than a decent backup.

 

Meph's comment about his tools is good, but I didn't expect it out of a stat guy. :D

Guest

Guest

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Posted
Posted
Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Aybar hit very well in the minors year in and year out. Ronny really only became a prospect 2 years ago.

 

Edit: Their career minor league lines:

 

Aybar- .311/.356/.454/.810

Cedeno- .265/.316/.376/.692

No offense, but your post showed you did not read what you quoted at all. :D

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