Prior visits Yocum and Andrews; THT on Prior's Mechanics

[CubinNY]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

 

What the hell are you talking about? I just showed you 7 pitchers whose career were shortented or their effectiveness was lessoned, or were out of baseball at an early age after a) high innings and b) high pitch counts. Sonofsamiam just provided you with five more.

 

You don't need to do regression analysis or complicated statistics to look at those data and be able to draw an inference.

 

The obvious answer is that pitching all those IP and pitches per inning contributed to whatever results that occured. However, that doesn't rule out other factors too.

 

Yet, it also doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to come to the conclusion that it's probably not a good idea to have a young pitcher throw when they are fatigued.

 

 

No, what the hell are you talking about? You obviously have no understanding of inferential statistics.

 

But thanks for posting the PAP data. It's nice that someone out there understands the kinds of data that are required to back a claim.

 

Sheesh.

I understand inferential statitics quite well. However, you don't use them to show a cause and effect relationship becuase in fact they cannot show a cause and effect relationship.

 

Individual injuries after high pc over a prolonged period can show a cause and effect relationship although other factors cannot be ruled out.

 

Using huge data sets like the study I referenced only hammer home the obvious.

[Mephistopheles]

lets continue

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought-part-deux/

 

i still cant believe bp uses pap because "31% of all injured pitchers had above average career PAP totals for their career pitch counts."

[hitamprun]

High stress innings?????? WTF!!!!!!

 

I've heard it all now. Maybe MLB should come up with a rule that all starters have to be pulled when they reach 100 pitches. Also, they could set another rule that caps out pitches thrown per week, per month etc.

 

It wouldn't make a bit of difference, you would still see the same amount of injuries, because the pitchers today don't throw as much as then those of the past, yet they get hurt more. Pitch count is not the answer, you need to look elswhere.

 

and apparently you think the answer is manliness.

 

 

No, more like - preparedness!

 

Pitchers today, don't prepare like they did in the 60's and 70's when they threw more innings, had less rest, more double headers, 4 man rotations and threw more pitches.

 

Prior has come up lame in 4 straight spring trainings, after 5 months of rest and time to PREPARE. Does anybody else wonder, what the hell does this guy do in the offseason???

[VVMattVV]

High stress innings?????? WTF!!!!!!

 

I've heard it all now. Maybe MLB should come up with a rule that all starters have to be pulled when they reach 100 pitches. Also, they could set another rule that caps out pitches thrown per week, per month etc.

 

It wouldn't make a bit of difference, you would still see the same amount of injuries, because the pitchers today don't throw as much as then those of the past, yet they get hurt more. Pitch count is not the answer, you need to look elswhere.

 

and apparently you think the answer is manliness.

 

 

No, more like - preparedness!

 

Pitchers today, don't prepare like they did in the 60's and 70'swhen they threw more innings, had less rest, more double headers, 4 man rotations and threw more pitches.

 

Prior has come up lame in 4 straight spring trainings, after 5 months of rest and time to PREPARE. Does anybody else wonder, what the hell does this guy do in the offseason???

 

I don't wonder that, because we know what he did. He had a shoulder strengthening program he was on. Doesn't look like it helped much, but its not like these guys sit back and do nothing in the offseason. We don't know what else they work on, often we hear about how some guy developed a new pitch in the offseason.

 

I'm really tired about hearing how tough players were decades ago, and how much better everything was.

[USSoccer]

High stress innings?????? WTF!!!!!!

 

I've heard it all now. Maybe MLB should come up with a rule that all starters have to be pulled when they reach 100 pitches. Also, they could set another rule that caps out pitches thrown per week, per month etc.

 

It wouldn't make a bit of difference, you would still see the same amount of injuries, because the pitchers today don't throw as much as then those of the past, yet they get hurt more. Pitch count is not the answer, you need to look elswhere.

 

and apparently you think the answer is manliness.

 

 

No, more like - preparedness!

 

Pitchers today, don't prepare like they did in the 60's and 70's when they threw more innings, had less rest, more double headers, 4 man rotations and threw more pitches.

 

Prior has come up lame in 4 straight spring trainings, after 5 months of rest and time to PREPARE. Does anybody else wonder, what the hell does this guy do in the offseason???

 

Pitchers in the 60's and 70's had a higher mound, faced weaker hitters much more often, could throw inside to hitters who weren't as quick and didn't have armor on, didn't have to face power hitters like today, who may or may not be on performance enhancing drugs, had bigger ballparks with which to pitch in, and didn't throw as hard or with as much tourque.

 

But yeah, man, they were TOUGHER.

[A New Era]

I think the reason we don't throw as many innings and get injured is that the human race as a whole is getting weaker and more diseased. And I conspire that the government made it so, so we would have to buy more medicine and make them all richer. :lol: :roll:

[pete the dog]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

 

What the hell are you talking about? I just showed you 7 pitchers whose career were shortented or their effectiveness was lessoned, or were out of baseball at an early age after a) high innings and b) high pitch counts. Sonofsamiam just provided you with five more.

 

You don't need to do regression analysis or complicated statistics to look at those data and be able to draw an inference.

 

The obvious answer is that pitching all those IP and pitches per inning contributed to whatever results that occured. However, that doesn't rule out other factors too.

 

Yet, it also doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to come to the conclusion that it's probably not a good idea to have a young pitcher throw when they are fatigued.

 

 

No, what the hell are you talking about? You obviously have no understanding of inferential statistics.

 

But thanks for posting the PAP data. It's nice that someone out there understands the kinds of data that are required to back a claim.

 

Sheesh.

I understand inferential statitics quite well. However, you don't use them to show a cause and effect relationship becuase in fact they cannot show a cause and effect relationship.

 

Individual injuries after high pc over a prolonged period can show a cause and effect relationship although other factors cannot be ruled out.

 

Using huge data sets like the study I referenced only hammer home the obvious.

 

No, you don't understand inferential statistics. You don't seem to understand the meaning of "variable" or "effect." The analysis of the "huge data set" does much more than "hammer home the obvious."

 

If you're convinced by a few memorable examples, that's your problem.

[hitamprun]

High stress innings?????? WTF!!!!!!

 

I've heard it all now. Maybe MLB should come up with a rule that all starters have to be pulled when they reach 100 pitches. Also, they could set another rule that caps out pitches thrown per week, per month etc.

 

It wouldn't make a bit of difference, you would still see the same amount of injuries, because the pitchers today don't throw as much as then those of the past, yet they get hurt more. Pitch count is not the answer, you need to look elswhere.

 

and apparently you think the answer is manliness.

 

 

I believe the mound was lowered in 68, so anyone past that time, was throwing from the same height. Also, there were plenty of fireballers during that era, and pitching to lesser hitters? Strongly disagree there, the league was not as watered down, and players were more seasoned. You had more baseball players vs the beefed up one dimensional players you have today.

 

It's true, some players are tougher than others, and anyone can form an opinion as to who are the tough ones. It's not so much these guys were tougher, but how they prepared, and what their expectations were. I have no clue whether Prior juiced, but steriods has played a role in injuries, as has improper weight training that creates all kinks of imbalances in the shoulder area.

 

No, more like - preparedness!

 

Pitchers today, don't prepare like they did in the 60's and 70's when they threw more innings, had less rest, more double headers, 4 man rotations and threw more pitches.

 

Prior has come up lame in 4 straight spring trainings, after 5 months of rest and time to PREPARE. Does anybody else wonder, what the hell does this guy do in the offseason???

 

Pitchers in the 60's and 70's had a higher mound, faced weaker hitters much more often, could throw inside to hitters who weren't as quick and didn't have armor on, didn't have to face power hitters like today, who may or may not be on performance enhancing drugs, had bigger ballparks with which to pitch in, and didn't throw as hard or with as much tourque.

 

But yeah, man, they were TOUGHER.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Throwing too many pitches hurts some, and it has no impact on others. Perhaps erring on the side of caution is a good thing.

[CubinNY]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

 

What the hell are you talking about? I just showed you 7 pitchers whose career were shortented or their effectiveness was lessoned, or were out of baseball at an early age after a) high innings and b) high pitch counts. Sonofsamiam just provided you with five more.

 

You don't need to do regression analysis or complicated statistics to look at those data and be able to draw an inference.

 

The obvious answer is that pitching all those IP and pitches per inning contributed to whatever results that occured. However, that doesn't rule out other factors too.

 

Yet, it also doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to come to the conclusion that it's probably not a good idea to have a young pitcher throw when they are fatigued.

 

 

No, what the hell are you talking about? You obviously have no understanding of inferential statistics.

 

But thanks for posting the PAP data. It's nice that someone out there understands the kinds of data that are required to back a claim.

 

Sheesh.

I understand inferential statitics quite well. However, you don't use them to show a cause and effect relationship becuase in fact they cannot show a cause and effect relationship.

 

Individual injuries after high pc over a prolonged period can show a cause and effect relationship although other factors cannot be ruled out.

 

Using huge data sets like the study I referenced only hammer home the obvious.

 

No, you don't understand inferential statistics. You don't seem to understand the meaning of "variable" or "effect." The analysis of the "huge data set" does much more than "hammer home the obvious."

 

If you're convinced by a few memorable examples, that's your problem.

 

Shall I reference peer reviewed scientific studies I've published?

 

It's not about "being convinced by a few memorable examples".

 

If it (whatever it happens to be) occurs once that's all the data one needs. Then one begins to ask other questions, like has it happend to anyone else? If it has, then you find out how many more. But 1 is all you really need. It's called induction and is a much more powerful method at discovering truth than hypothesis testing using inferential statistics.

 

But like Bob Sanders just posted.

Throwing too many pitches hurts some, and it has no impact on others. Perhaps erring on the side of caution is a good thing.

 

In essence I agree with Mephistopheles, poor mechanics probably has a lot to do with arm injuries, but then you have to ask what causes poor mechanics. If it's fatigue born by high pitch counts then I would think that one would want to mimimize those instances.

[Mephistopheles]

i dunno but id like see somoene do a study on pitchers who have the hitch thing in their shoulder like prior compared to none. keep the pap similar and see if they get hurt more.

 

pitchers off the top of my head who have that hitch are fidrych, wainwright, reyes, and prior

[pete the dog]

The difference with Wood and Prior is they had high pitch-count games, with high-stress innings (as in both teams were in a pennant race to the very end) in THEIR VERY FIRST full major league seasons. At the ages of 20 and 22.

 

I think these are all obviously contributing factors.

 

Also, another fine example of overuse is the excellent Oakland A's staff of 1980.

 

Check out those Complete Games! Check out their ages! Now check out what happened to them after that year!

 

All 5 careers went in the tank, and that included extremely promising guys like Mike Norris and Matt Keough.

 

 

Again, examples are easy. Were I properly motivated, I guarantee you I could find plenty of examples where this level of ptiching (even "high stress" pitching) did not result in injury.

 

Interesting as they may be, examples are not useful data for understanding cause and effect.

 

What the hell are you talking about? I just showed you 7 pitchers whose career were shortented or their effectiveness was lessoned, or were out of baseball at an early age after a) high innings and b) high pitch counts. Sonofsamiam just provided you with five more.

 

You don't need to do regression analysis or complicated statistics to look at those data and be able to draw an inference.

 

The obvious answer is that pitching all those IP and pitches per inning contributed to whatever results that occured. However, that doesn't rule out other factors too.

 

Yet, it also doesn't take a Rhodes scholar to come to the conclusion that it's probably not a good idea to have a young pitcher throw when they are fatigued.

 

 

No, what the hell are you talking about? You obviously have no understanding of inferential statistics.

 

But thanks for posting the PAP data. It's nice that someone out there understands the kinds of data that are required to back a claim.

 

Sheesh.

I understand inferential statitics quite well. However, you don't use them to show a cause and effect relationship becuase in fact they cannot show a cause and effect relationship.

 

Individual injuries after high pc over a prolonged period can show a cause and effect relationship although other factors cannot be ruled out.

 

Using huge data sets like the study I referenced only hammer home the obvious.

 

No, you don't understand inferential statistics. You don't seem to understand the meaning of "variable" or "effect." The analysis of the "huge data set" does much more than "hammer home the obvious."

 

If you're convinced by a few memorable examples, that's your problem.

 

Shall I reference peer reviewed scientific studies I've published?

 

It's not about "being convinced by a few memorable examples".

 

If it (whatever it happens to be) occurs once that's all the data one needs. Then one begins to ask other questions, like has it happend to anyone else? If it has, then you find out how many more. But 1 is all you really need. It's called induction and is a much more powerful method at discovering truth than hypothesis testing using inferential statistics.

 

But like Bob Sanders just posted.

Throwing too many pitches hurts some, and it has no impact on others. Perhaps erring on the side of caution is a good thing.

 

In essence I agree with Mephistopheles, poor mechanics probably has a lot to do with arm injuries, but then you have to ask what causes poor mechanics. If it's fatigue born by high pitch counts then I would think that one would want to mimimize those instances.

 

 

Wow. Just wow.

 

If I have more peer-reviewed papers than you does that make me right and you wrong?

 

Let me ask you a simple question. Do you believe that a batting average based on 2 at-bats is as informative as one based on 550 at-bats?

[treebird]

If I have more peer-reviewed papers than you does that make me right and you wrong?

 

that's clearly now what he was saying at all. he's just letting you know that suggesting that he doesn't understand anything about statistical methods is somewhat silly.

[ltb]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

[baseball7897]

i dunno but id like see somoene do a study on pitchers who have the hitch thing in their shoulder like prior compared to none. keep the pap similar and see if they get hurt more.

 

pitchers off the top of my head who have that hitch are fidrych, wainwright, reyes, and prior

 

Wood, Smoltz, Zumaya, Wagner, Bonderman are a couple of other guys who have that arm action as well.

 

Im not a fan of that arm action either. I dont like the fact the elbow goes higher than the shoulder which cuases more stress in that shoulder area. Even when I try to attempt that arm action, I can feel that my arm does not react well to it.

[hitamprun]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

 

 

I'll bet they find nothing that calls for surgery. But, whether he gets the knife or not, do you really want another year of this soap opera???

[Omar]

If you guys listen to the latest Cubscast Podcast, he does an interview with Mike Marshall and he discusses the errors in Prior's mechanics.

 

http://www.cubscast.com/podcasts/cubscast258.mp3

 

Something about the starting motion where his hand goes behind his head. Listen for yourself.

[RynoRules]

I always figured Wood was flawed - he throws so severely across his body; but Prior was supposed to be Seaver-like in his mechanics.

 

Some of you may remember Kevin Appier and his very funny delivery. When he came up with KC people marveled at his talent, but the general thought was that he was a "blow out waiting to happen". He had his share of injuries like any other picther, but he also became a pretty reliable starter over his 16 years.

 

These things seem very unpredictible and non-quantifiable.

[abuck1220]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

 

 

I'll bet they find nothing that calls for surgery. But, whether he gets the knife or not, do you really want another year of this soap opera???

 

could someone please tell me what harm it does the organization to have prior sit on the DL for a year? they're not counting on him anyway.

[Laura]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

 

Are we resorting to dissecting him to figure out what's wrong?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

 

 

I'll bet they find nothing that calls for surgery. But, whether he gets the knife or not, do you really want another year of this soap opera???

 

If by soap opera you mean choosing between having unhealthy Prior and losing him after this season or taking a chance that he can get healthy and be under control next year, then yes. I definitely want another year of the soap opera.

[A New Era]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

 

 

I'll bet they find nothing that calls for surgery. But, whether he gets the knife or not, do you really want another year of this soap opera???

 

If by soap opera you mean choosing between having unhealthy Prior and losing him after this season or taking a chance that he can get healthy and be under control next year, then yes. I definitely want another year of the soap opera.

 

It's only a soap opera if we make it so. I'm not paying any attention to Prior this year, personally. So it's no really a soap opera at all, really.

[RynoRules]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

 

Are we resorting to dissecting him to figure out what's wrong?

 

When all else fails, revert back to high school biology.

[illiniguy]

hmm...will carroll was talking about how he almost hopes that yocum cuts him open.

 

if that happens, and prior misses the season, he doesn't accrue any major league service time (if i'm understanding the rules, correctly), so he would become a free agent one year later. here's hoping yocum can figure out what's wrong (and fix it so he can pitch in 2008).

 

 

I'll bet they find nothing that calls for surgery. But, whether he gets the knife or not, do you really want another year of this soap opera???

 

If by soap opera you mean choosing between having unhealthy Prior and losing him after this season or taking a chance that he can get healthy and be under control next year, then yes. I definitely want another year of the soap opera.

 

It's only a soap opera if we make it so. I'm not paying any attention to Prior this year, personally. So it's no really a soap opera at all, really.

Says the guy with Prior in his sig. :P

[JeffH]

Prior might as well go to Dogpatch to visit Pappy Yokum.

 

The result will be the same.