BA Picks Cubs 5th in Division (Media Prediction Thread)

[C.C.]

Nate Silver, the creator of PECOTA, picks the Cubs to finish first in the NL Central.

 

Subscription required:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6023

 

Can you post it...

[Mephistopheles]

                      W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP    SLG
Chicago Cubs         85   77    829   791   .275   .337   .460
Milwaukee Brewers    85   77    788   748   .266   .335   .445
St. Louis Cardinals  81   81    731   734   .260   .331   .417
Houston Astros       80   82    769   781   .260   .334   .435
Pittsburgh Pirates   76   86    752   805   .270   .331   .434
Cincinnati Reds      71   91    726   827   .259   .329   .417

 

Remarkably similar RS and RA for the Cubs that I had way back in December. IIRC I had 824 runs and 786 RA. And wow at the Cubs leading the division in OBP.

[C.C.]

                      W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP    SLG
Chicago Cubs         85   77    829   791   .275   .337   .460
Milwaukee Brewers    85   77    788   748   .266   .335   .445
St. Louis Cardinals  81   81    731   734   .260   .331   .417
Houston Astros       80   82    769   781   .260   .334   .435
Pittsburgh Pirates   76   86    752   805   .270   .331   .434
Cincinnati Reds      71   91    726   827   .259   .329   .417

 

Remarkably similar RS and RA for the Cubs that I had way back in December. IIRC I had 824 runs and 786 RA. And wow at the Cubs leading the division in OBP.

 

That looks about right.

[Bruno7481]

                      W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP    SLG
Chicago Cubs         85   77    829   791   .275   .337   .460
Milwaukee Brewers    85   77    788   748   .266   .335   .445
St. Louis Cardinals  81   81    731   734   .260   .331   .417
Houston Astros       80   82    769   781   .260   .334   .435
Pittsburgh Pirates   76   86    752   805   .270   .331   .434
Cincinnati Reds      71   91    726   827   .259   .329   .417

 

Remarkably similar RS and RA for the Cubs that I had way back in December. IIRC I had 824 runs and 786 RA. And wow at the Cubs leading the division in OBP.

 

Cool.

 

Cancel the regular season. When do they playoffs start?

[cheapseats]

                      W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP    SLG
Chicago Cubs         85   77    829   791   .275   .337   .460
Milwaukee Brewers    85   77    788   748   .266   .335   .445
St. Louis Cardinals  81   81    731   734   .260   .331   .417
Houston Astros       80   82    769   781   .260   .334   .435
Pittsburgh Pirates   76   86    752   805   .270   .331   .434
Cincinnati Reds      71   91    726   827   .259   .329   .417

 

 

And Silver thinks the gap between the Cubs and the Brewers is probably more like 4 games. He believes PECOTA is underrating Zambrano slightly and that the loss of Dusty Baker has to count for something. As for the Brewers, he thinks the forecast is just a little optimistic.

[NewUserName]

                      W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP    SLG
Chicago Cubs         85   77    829   791   .275   .337   .460
Milwaukee Brewers    85   77    788   748   .266   .335   .445
St. Louis Cardinals  81   81    731   734   .260   .331   .417
Houston Astros       80   82    769   781   .260   .334   .435
Pittsburgh Pirates   76   86    752   805   .270   .331   .434
Cincinnati Reds      71   91    726   827   .259   .329   .417

 

Remarkably similar RS and RA for the Cubs that I had way back in December. IIRC I had 824 runs and 786 RA. And wow at the Cubs leading the division in OBP.

 

Pirates have a better offensive team than the Reds?

[98navigator]

Nate Silver, the creator of PECOTA, picks the Cubs to finish first in the NL Central.

 

Subscription required:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6023

 

Can you post it...

 

Here is a snippet of what they have to say about the Cubs:

 

The Verdict: It’s easy to be skeptical when a team has had so much go wrong for it, but the projections for Zambrano and Derrek Lee look low, and it remains to be seen how much of the Cubs’ "bad luck" was in fact the result of employing a bad manager. Add two wins for 87-75; 90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

[cheapseats]

                      W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP    SLG
Chicago Cubs         85   77    829   791   .275   .337   .460
Milwaukee Brewers    85   77    788   748   .266   .335   .445
St. Louis Cardinals  81   81    731   734   .260   .331   .417
Houston Astros       80   82    769   781   .260   .334   .435
Pittsburgh Pirates   76   86    752   805   .270   .331   .434
Cincinnati Reds      71   91    726   827   .259   .329   .417

 

Remarkably similar RS and RA for the Cubs that I had way back in December. IIRC I had 824 runs and 786 RA. And wow at the Cubs leading the division in OBP.

 

Pirates have a better offensive team than the Reds?

 

Krivsky is magical like that.

[goonys evil twin]

90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

 

This man is insane. Trade excess OF talent for bullpen help? That's just dumb.

[brinoch]

90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

 

This man is insane. Trade excess OF talent for bullpen help? That's just dumb.

 

It's Nate Silver in his updated NL Central PECOTA report.

[goonys evil twin]

90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

 

This man is insane. Trade excess OF talent for bullpen help? That's just dumb.

 

It's Nate Silver in his updated NL Central PECOTA report.

 

I know.

[CubinNY]

90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

 

This man is insane. Trade excess OF talent for bullpen help? That's just dumb.

 

I was just going to post something about that comment. I think the Cubs may be trading for a SS, unless Lou and Perry can work some magic with Cedeno. I don't think Isturiz makes it until July.

[goonys evil twin]

I heard the guys on ESPN radio talk about over/under for total victories this year, but I didn't listen long enough to hear any specifics. Anybody know they are? This is always a fun bet.

 

I'm guessing they'll have the Cubs relatively high, like around 85, since they are always overbet. Same with the Yankees (95/96?).

[98navigator]

I heard the guys on ESPN radio talk about over/under for total victories this year, but I didn't listen long enough to hear any specifics. Anybody know they are? This is always a fun bet.

 

I'm guessing they'll have the Cubs relatively high, like around 85, since they are always overbet. Same with the Yankees (95/96?).

 

ESPN radio or TV? The radio has podcasts so you can hear it again...

[goonys evil twin]

I heard the guys on ESPN radio talk about over/under for total victories this year, but I didn't listen long enough to hear any specifics. Anybody know they are? This is always a fun bet.

 

I'm guessing they'll have the Cubs relatively high, like around 85, since they are always overbet. Same with the Yankees (95/96?).

 

Just saw one list.

It had the Yankees at 97.5 (I'll take the under)

Cardinals at 86 and Cubs at 84.5.

 

Considering I'm hoping for 85 from the Cubs, that's a tough call. But with money on the line I'd probably take the under.

[goonys evil twin]

I heard the guys on ESPN radio talk about over/under for total victories this year, but I didn't listen long enough to hear any specifics. Anybody know they are? This is always a fun bet.

 

I'm guessing they'll have the Cubs relatively high, like around 85, since they are always overbet. Same with the Yankees (95/96?).

 

ESPN radio or TV? The radio has podcasts so you can hear it again...

 

radio

[BigbadB]

I've been gone for the last week, so I'm way behind on what's been going on, but I'm going out on a limb and picking this team to win the division. I think they will avoid devastating injuries, and a few guys will step up and contribute in a big way this year.

 

I think they'll win 90+. I think Houston and St. Louis are worse than they have been, and they weren't really all that good to begin with. Milwaukee is the only threat, but I think they still have way too many question marks going into the season. I think the Cubs bullpen will really step it up and with better management and more depth on the bench, they can't help but be more than 20 games better than they were last year.

 

Fire away on my post, but the Cubs are going to the playoffs in 2007. Book it.

[USSoccer]

I've been gone for the last week, so I'm way behind on what's been going on, but I'm going out on a limb and picking this team to win the division. I think they will avoid devastating injuries, and a few guys will step up and contribute in a big way this year.

 

I think they'll win 90+. I think Houston and St. Louis are worse than they have been, and they weren't really all that good to begin with. Milwaukee is the only threat, but I think they still have way too many question marks going into the season. I think the Cubs bullpen will really step it up and with better management and more depth on the bench, they can't help but be more than 20 games better than they were last year.

 

Fire away on my post, but the Cubs are going to the playoffs in 2007. Book it.

 

90+?

 

I kind of have the feeling that we're going to see a season similar to 2004. Lots of SLG%, not enough OBP to sustain a 95 win pace guven the questions that the starting pitching has.

[Sammy Sofa]

I've been gone for the last week, so I'm way behind on what's been going on, but I'm going out on a limb and picking this team to win the division. I think they will avoid devastating injuries, and a few guys will step up and contribute in a big way this year.

 

I think they'll win 90+. I think Houston and St. Louis are worse than they have been, and they weren't really all that good to begin with. Milwaukee is the only threat, but I think they still have way too many question marks going into the season. I think the Cubs bullpen will really step it up and with better management and more depth on the bench, they can't help but be more than 20 games better than they were last year.

 

Fire away on my post, but the Cubs are going to the playoffs in 2007. Book it.

 

90+?

 

I kind of have the feeling that we're going to see a season similar to 2004. Lots of SLG%, not enough OBP to sustain a 95 win pace guven the questions that the starting pitching has.

 

Agreed. Anything above 85 wins is going to be over achieving.

[brinoch]

90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

 

This man is insane. Trade excess OF talent for bullpen help? That's just dumb.

 

It's Nate Silver in his updated NL Central PECOTA report.

 

I know.

 

I think it's relatively crazy, too. I don't know if you have a BP subscription, but they make some assumptions on playing time and positions that are pretty incorrect. For example, they have Murton and Floyd both playing 45% of the time in LF (Murton received 15% of the time in RF, however). For the 'pen, they have Dempster, Wood, Eyre, Wuertz, Howry, Cotts, and Ohman as the first tier of BP pitchers -- all with about 55-60 innings -- and Novoa, Mateo, and Marmol following after. Guzman is mentioned as a spot starter. Obviously, Wood is out of the picture. But they project them to all be pretty crappy.

 

The bullpen could use some shoring up, for sure, but I think its serviceable and all in all, pretty sufficient. I'd look to upgrade SS, RF and 2B before the bullpen. I'd love to find a way to trade Jones and some pitching in a package for an impact SS (pipedream). Boy, how I'd love to have Mitre, Nolasco, and Pinto back. (What a horrid deal that was.)

[98navigator]

FYI, BP's Nate Silver will be on the Mike Murphy show around 1pm CT

 

Listen Live online

[cheapseats]

FYI, BP's Nate Silver will be on the Mike Murphy show around 1pm CT

 

Listen Live online

 

Thanks for the heads up, 98.

 

This could be fun when they open the phone lines.

 

Sox fans can't like the 72-win projection.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I blogged a bit on this topic.

 

Link.